2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[lfromnj]

Don't get too excited folks, I still expect 5-5-1

It's probably just one congessional seat at stake here realistically.

The bigger question is whether the new state legislative maps give Youngkin a trifecta in 2023.  In theory, it should get harder, because adjusting for equal population forces an additional senate seat and at least 2 HoD seats into NOVA.

Maybe, barely, but only in a year better for the GOP slightly than 2021. So I suspect it depends less on the maps and more do Democrats still run the sort of turnout operation they did in 2021, as I suspect in that case they probably would hold ties or narrow majorities under the most likely new maps.

Median seats will very likely be Clinton 2016 by 3 or so.

A tie in the state senate would just mean R control, but a tie in the HoD would be sufficient to block R legislation and 2 net seats have to move up to NOVA...

Honestly the bigger issue than NOVA(the 2 seats could be in Western and Central PWC) is that Charlottesville will get a 2nd seat and the Blacksburg seat will get more D>

[lfromnj]

The Petersburg state hosue district that was unpacked is literally the old MS SD 19 all over again where white very Republican suburbs were combined with low turnout black areas.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1461097022551900164?s=20

I was actually discussing Sean Trende as a possible pick on discord a few days ago. He has a history (He just defended the Ohio legislative maps) but surprised because I am not sure how he gets paid enough.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1461097022551900164?s=20
I was actually discussing Sean Trende as a possible pick on discord a few days ago. He has a history (He just defended the Ohio legislative maps) but surprised because I am not sure how he gets paid enough.

I didn't know that Sean Trende was actually an R-aligned consultant. That explains a lot of things about RCP, and actually it changes my opinion of the site; I used to think it was a nonpartisan website that was annoyingly slanted to the right, but now it turns out that it is a partisan but rather mild R website.

However it does confirm that he has his thumb on the scale with his poll aggregator, something I've long suspected based on the lack of transparency over which polls are included and which aren't.

As far as I know he hasn't actually drawn any maps for a party yet. He has testified in defense of Republican maps or against Democratic lawsuits against gerrymandering.

https://www.supremecourt.ohio.gov/pdf_viewer/pdf_viewer.aspx?pdf=911845.pdf

Here is his recent defense of the Ohio maps.

Also Trende actually does have pretty good analysis even if you dislike the rest of RCP.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/cbseaman/status/1461116823974424590

[lfromnj]

Are the VA GOP trying to goad the VASC to appoint Trende as the R master consultant by nominating two people that are completely unqualified for the role?  I noticed they did this strategy last time by nominating two partisans directly from the national party and then a third guy that was like, kinda sorta okay-ish.  

Basically pick two god awful nominees and then a C-rate nominee so the VASC has no real choice but to pick the C-rate (but still partisan) nominee?

This is basically what they did the first time and the court said gtfo. Trende is on the surface more acceptable then their goaded pick from previously, but trying the same strategy twice might result in the same result twice only now they could be locked out through contempt.

Trende would be a pretty fair pick, he's been R aligned but not pro-Trump. I could see a Biden +10 VA-2 as it would be the 6th Dem seat in a Biden +10 state and VA-7 becoming a Biden +2-5 type seat.

Trende's track record of actively defending Republican gerrymanders in Court absolutely disqualifies him as an acceptable special master.

TBF Trende didn't defend them. He attacked the effiency gap which tbh he is 100% right on

1. It is ill-defined
2. Unworkable
3. Provides no easy cutoff point for what is and is not constitutional(ie. he concedes you could draw some sort of arbitrary line as with 10% population deviations but in that case states would game the system and every map would end up in court while confused judges listened to competing partisan statisticians producing gibberish)  

The embrace of the efficiency gap was a massive blunder by anti-gerrymandering advocates who should have focused instead on a separation of powers argument (ie. legislature can be checked by referendums but what if referendums require legislative approval? Governors elected by majority vote, but what if they have no veto? Basically argue that North Carolina is unconstitutional not because it is gerrymandered but because there is no recourse due to lack of gubernatorial veto, initiative process, etc . Would have appealed to the Court's preference for never mandating a single remedy)  It was the height of elitism to create a constitutional argument only those with calculus could understand and most of those who actually understood math thought was unworkable.

I mean the efficiency gap is just basic arithmetic by itself but yes what you said is correct. The best argument in his brief that Illinois's map would have been considered legal but Indiana was a egregious gerrymander that needed Federal court intervention.

However the other brief I posted was Trende defending the recently Ohio legislative maps as being not a gerrymander in certain locations(noticeably he didn't touch on Dayton )

Overall tough to find too much info on twitter about specific views.

[lfromnj]

Are the VA GOP trying to goad the VASC to appoint Trende as the R master consultant by nominating two people that are completely unqualified for the role?  I noticed they did this strategy last time by nominating two partisans directly from the national party and then a third guy that was like, kinda sorta okay-ish.  

Basically pick two god awful nominees and then a C-rate nominee so the VASC has no real choice but to pick the C-rate (but still partisan) nominee?

This is basically what they did the first time and the court said gtfo. Trende is on the surface more acceptable then their goaded pick from previously, but trying the same strategy twice might result in the same result twice only now they could be locked out through contempt.

Trende would be a pretty fair pick, he's been R aligned but not pro-Trump. I could see a Biden +10 VA-2 as it would be the 6th Dem seat in a Biden +10 state and VA-7 becoming a Biden +2-5 type seat.

Trende's track record of actively defending Republican gerrymanders in Court absolutely disqualifies him as an acceptable special master.

TBF Trende didn't defend them. He attacked the effiency gap which tbh he is 100% right on

1. It is ill-defined
2. Unworkable
3. Provides no easy cutoff point for what is and is not constitutional(ie. he concedes you could draw some sort of arbitrary line as with 10% population deviations but in that case states would game the system and every map would end up in court while confused judges listened to competing partisan statisticians producing gibberish)  

The embrace of the efficiency gap was a massive blunder by anti-gerrymandering advocates who should have focused instead on a separation of powers argument (ie. legislature can be checked by referendums but what if referendums require legislative approval? Governors elected by majority vote, but what if they have no veto? Basically argue that North Carolina is unconstitutional not because it is gerrymandered but because there is no recourse due to lack of gubernatorial veto, initiative process, etc . Would have appealed to the Court's preference for never mandating a single remedy)  It was the height of elitism to create a constitutional argument only those with calculus could understand and most of those who actually understood math thought was unworkable.

The efficiency gap was a transparent attempt to force Dem-optimized cracking of cities while maintaining all VRA seats.  It was way too much of a flex for the current court.  Dems probably assumed they would get to replace Scalia or Kennedy by the time it got to SCOTUS.  The 1st Amendment viewpoint discrimination argument from the Maryland R's was noticeably stronger.  You can see it was tempting for Kavanaugh.  

I agree the best approach was to argue that NC, et al. were not giving their residents a "republican form of government" because all power is effectively concentrated in the legislature.  The problem is that would have obviously implicated Maryland Dems (where the legislative maps cannot be vetoed, there is no initiative process, the legislature can block state court appointments, and they have drawn a consistent Dem supermajority for 100 years) and would threaten the Massachusetts and Illinois maps as well.    

Overall, the simple majority veto override/no initiative states do skew R so this still wouldn't have been a bad Dem strategy.  It doesn't fix the Midwestern R maps, though, which was the big focus in the 2010's.  

  

Rucho also used the 1st amendment clause.
Well there were 2 parts to the lawsuits.

Is partisan gerrymandering illegal?

If it is illegal what should be used to stop it?
"Efficiency gap?
"I know it when I see it?"
other methods?

The plaintiffs somewhat had an argument that may have gotten Roberts/Kavanaugh's attention but it wasn't enough to establish it as illegal. However when it came to the so called tests Roberts flat out called them gobbledygook.

[lfromnj]

Are the VA GOP trying to goad the VASC to appoint Trende as the R master consultant by nominating two people that are completely unqualified for the role?  I noticed they did this strategy last time by nominating two partisans directly from the national party and then a third guy that was like, kinda sorta okay-ish.  

Basically pick two god awful nominees and then a C-rate nominee so the VASC has no real choice but to pick the C-rate (but still partisan) nominee?

This is basically what they did the first time and the court said gtfo. Trende is on the surface more acceptable then their goaded pick from previously, but trying the same strategy twice might result in the same result twice only now they could be locked out through contempt.

Yeah Thomas Bryan was definetely acceptable from a credentialed point of view.  The other 2 were fairly joke picks. The difference between Trende and Bryan is that Bryan worked directy for the VA GOP which seemed too direct, while Trende has only testified for other state parties.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1461758918728769537

lol.

So seems like he wants to finish the maps quickly.

[lfromnj]

What is the partisanship of 2?

Biden +1.5

I am just happy these people realized the much better way to make va02/va03/va04 rather than the legislators believing VRA district means it can't be touched at all.

[lfromnj]

So partisan effect is VA01 is moved to Richmond suburbs instead of NOVA suburbs and becomes 8 points more R while VA07 is the opposite. VA02 becomes 3 points more R.

[lfromnj]

DRA link for the congressional map.

Working on uploading the senate and HoD maps.

6-5 by Pres 2016, 7-4 by Gov 2017, Sen 2018, and Pres 2020.

So Clinton still won VA-02?

No she won the Loudoun seat by 1.

[lfromnj]

The GOP incumbents should be fine, Wittman might grumble a bit but the territory that is switched from his district is more D leaning .  Now the Democrats are interesting. Luria is losing for 2022 but she should still try of course if the environment gets better. The seat won't be a rental for the GOP at least.

Now Spanberger can not win the new West Henrico to  Williamsburg seat. Simple as that it is Safe R for 2022. Now Wexton also may not be too happy about the new Loudoun seat. The current district is Biden +19 but she only won by 13.  The new seat has a few more downscale rural areas but if I had to bet she would have won by around 5 points in 2020.  She may consider trying to persuade Connally to move to PWC or move there herself. So there is still clearly an open NOVA seat . Spanberger may be the one who considers taking the leftover NOVA seat or she simply has to retire.

[lfromnj]

The GOP incumbents should be fine, Wittman might grumble a bit but the territory that is switched from his district is more D leaning .  Now the Democrats are interesting. Luria is losing for 2022 but she should still try of course if the environment gets better.

Now Spanberger can not win the new West Henrico to  Williamsburg seat. Simple as that it is Safe R for 2022. Now Wexton also may not be too happy about the new Loudoun seat. The current district is Biden +19 but she only won by 13.  The new seat has a few more downscale rural areas but if I had to bet she would have won by around 5 points in 2020.  She may consider trying to persuade Connally to move to PWC or move there herself. So there is still clearly an open NOVA seat . Spanberger may be the one who considers taking the leftover NOVA seat or she simply has to retire.

Oh, that's right, Wexton lives in Loudoun, so the Lean (Tilt in 2022?) D NOVA seat already has an incumbent.  It's extremely likely Carroll-Foy or Ayala goes for Safe D VA-01 then.

Well an important rule is incumbents generally like to run away to safer seats if they can.

[lfromnj]

Spanberger and Wittman are double-bunked in VA-01 here, the seat went from Trump +16 to Trump +10, so probably picks Wittman in 2022 but Spanberger could certainly be back later in the decade.

Perhaps her best bet would be to carpetbag to new VA-10?  She would be the ideal Dem candidate to hold a seat like that in this environment.

Also, A lot of its rural areas make up the northern parts of VA-7. Otherwise she probably has to primary Don McEachin.

Yeah the main issue with that is the Dem primary base would clearly be Loudoun and obviously very ambitious NOVA pols who were not as shellacked as their comrades in outstate.

[lfromnj]

The problem for Abigail Spanberger is that VA-02 and VA-03 were underpopulated and had to take in parts of VA-04. Thus forcing VA-04, which was fairly even, to pull out of Hampton Roads and grab more Dem precincts in the Richmond area.

They weren't that underpopulated. Its just the special masters decided not to keep the stupid bay hopping to Williamsburg.

[lfromnj]

Here is the ball game. I thought the deal would be to keep two swing seats, VA-07 and VA-02, but with the Dems having the high ground in VA-07 that is trending Dem anyway, and the Pubs having the high ground in VA-02* that is not trending Dem that much, and where the Pubs did really well in 2021, with a snap back that was above the state average, and about 4 points (8 point margin)  more Pub than the state. Instead, VA-07 was made pretty safely Dem, but in exchange, the Pubs did get the high ground in VA-02, in the sense that it went from Biden +4.4% to Biden +1.4%, a PVI shift of 1.5 points. That is about the best the Pubs could expect, in a state where the spoils all other things being equal should be 6D-5R at best. It would be interesting to find out if Youngin won VA-07 or not when he won the state by 2 points. In a "fair" map from a partisan divide of the spoils perspective, the party that wins the state should win VA-07 by a similar margin. And for never Trumper Sean Trende, the Trumpers have only two safe haven CD's. I admire the man's skill, I really do.

* My map took the same approach of using the existing chop line in Chesapeake County, but then ceded territory to the west, rather than to the east, while this map does the opposite for a cleaner map, but with the same partisan result. And I thought moving the CD down to about Biden +1% was about the limit that would fly.

It was still like Trump +6 in 2016 to Biden +2. However it was likely only Romney +4 or somewhere around there. Along with that I would like to wait on a definite military trend.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1468725532212842496
lol

[lfromnj]

My guess is national Democrats would probably prefer a reshuffle where Connally/Wexton figure out the Fairfax and PWC seats and Span Berger can carpetbag over to the new VA 10th. I doubt Loudoun particularly cares about carpetbaggers at least for a general and Spanberger already represents the rural parts of the district. Wexton underperformed Biden by 6 points while Spanberger ran even with Biden. You definitely don't want a Wexton like performance in what is now a Biden +9 instead of 19 seat at least for 2022 even if the seat overall would be a rental for the GOP.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Fritschner/status/1468718432308842496

lol

Democrats are now planning to go all in on the #WARONWOMYN route.

“I think the most obvious thing is it seems to be very hurtful for the three Virginia women,” said Democratic Rep. Don Beyer, reflecting on the map. “I know we're not supposed to have elected officials pick their voters, but it is unfortunate the way they're drawn that incumbents like Abigail Spanberger, who had a difficult district to begin with, is tossed in a completely different district.”

I mean its pretty obvious if Luria loses it will be to another woman and VA07 will likely be replaced with a progressive woman from PWC from what I hear.

[lfromnj]

The more I think about it, the more VA really would work better with 12 districts.

I would not be surprised at all if we get VA-12 after the 2030 census. Probably alongside NV-05, UT-05, ID-03, AZ-10 and TN-10.

VA barely grew faster than the nation.

[lfromnj]

Charlottesville is kinda homeless in the sense it has nowhere obvious to go

I find this a little perplexing--it's not solved by increasing the number of districts to 12!

Wouldn't a 12-seat map at least lower the chance of Albemarle being split in 2?

Technically more districts = a greater chance of being split. But to explain Sol's statement further is that Albemarle really doesn't go great anywhere. You can keep it in Southside in effect what is basically a "deep southern" district with the exception of Albemarle. You can send it East to Richmond but that has quite weird consequences and it isn't that well connected with Richmond . either. You could send it North to NOVA which is also weird.

One thing before the last option. I actually didn't realize that the Roanoke area is also technically considered part of Shenandoah. I think its a bridge between SWVA and Shenandoah so I generally kept Roanoke with VA09 but their VA06 is a solid idea, but basically all of VA west of the blue ridge mountains basically has the population for 2 districts minus 170k people.

The last option theoretically could be crossing the mountains for Charlottesville and put in VA06.

As stated none of these options are great.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1469145353303830529

Hes going to sue the VA supreme court for the maps they drew.

Brilliant grifting

[lfromnj]

Theory: Should Miyares go for VA-02?  He's from VA Beach.  It sounds crazy because it could be construed as a step down from AG, but he was clearly the weakest of the 3 (barely beating a scandalized incumbent) and there's no way he's winning a statewide primary against Sears, or Youngkin for that matter.  Whereas he could hold this seat for the decade and then make his move for governor the next time a Dem wins the WH. 

I mean the seat would fall in any D wave, secondly is the fact that Jen Kiggans is already there and a solid recruit.

[lfromnj]

https://richmond.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/incumbents-are-an-afterthought-in-proposed-maps-for-state-house-and-senate/article_634d3898-390f-550d-9146-be16d282754f.html

lol.