COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

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Yes, and it’s important to note that as we return to normal life, small clusters of cases among heavily vaccinated populations are going to happen. It’s just math. (Also worth noting: this was after Provincetown’s biggest tourist week of the whole year.)

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With respect, no, because I would actually like to do things with other people in my life.

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Cases dropped again in the U.K. today. Not by quite as much as the last few days, but still a promising sign.

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350 million doses in the U.S. — not a great slip, but also not a number pulled from thin air.

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For better or worse.. we may not get a winter surge after all if delta keeps spreading like this..

so much for covid being a completely seasonal virus.

Oh.. look at the weather in India during their mega surge.

The winter surge in the US occurred as everyone flocked indoors. Not directly because it was cold.

By winter we could be dealing with a worse variant that completely evades vaccines altogether.

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1422939266347372545?s=20

It's very, very unlikely.

Lambda is also nothing to worry about compared to Delta, just to head that off at the pass:

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1422965233371467776?s=20

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https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1425095385157038080?s=20

Fingers crossed.

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I’m not all that upset that we’re wearing masks again in Louisiana — clearly something has to be done. I’m more angry that we’re looking at another Fall of canceled concerts and possible restaurant shutdowns. I can wear a mask inside if it means the possibility of getting my life back elsewhere, but that seems less possible with every passing day. (And I was largely an optimist a month ago.)

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When is the Delta surge projected to level off?

I saw some recent projections saying it would level off right about now. "TheLawyerCraig" on Twitter might have posted some.

Robert Redfield is saying it’s very likely another variant, more dangerous than Delta, is coming this fall.

Based on what, exactly? (And don’t say “lambda,” because we already know that’s not as dangerous as delta.)

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https://twitter.com/NOLAnews/status/1425881868864471043?s=20

Good. Wish Jefferson Parish would do this as well.

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Not fight cities and counties trying to implement mask mandates recommended by the CDC, for one thing.

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I mean, nobody *wants* to get it, (well, nobody sane, at least), but the risk of illnesses with those symptoms is something we face every day. Colds and flus can knock people out for a week or more, but I’d still call them relatively mild. Not to mention something like strep throat.

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I'm amazed at how little my state is f**king around with anti-vax nonsense. (Although "or a recent negative test" is not great, it's better than nothing?)

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Cleaning wipes do absolutely nothing against this virus, and I’m amazed that people are still using them (or wearing gloves, or using sanitizer, or basically anything that involves surfaces rather than the air).

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I am about to roll around on the floor and scream!!

Relax.

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464622927333232640?s=20

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https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1464734073897766919?s=20

Which has always been the case: older, unvaccinated people are at high risk of severe disease from pretty much any form of the virus. Still nothing doom and gloom worthy yet.

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Chise has consistently given the most level headed and professional responses to COVID-19 compared to most public health officials, which is incredible given she's a furry on Twitter.

We don't know that she's right though.

Chise is fool, just ignore her

Good to hear your perspective - let me know when you next work to develop a COVID vaccine.

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I can't eat pies and cakes at Xmas time that much

Ah yes, the Pi variant

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Here's an interesting thought: what if omicron had been the initial variant to infect humans?  It spreads like wildfire but so far appears to be less severe.  Probably most people would have contracted it, but would there have been enough severe cases to strain the medical systems?

Probably still yes, given our lack of vaccines and prior infections providing at least some protection.

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Nah. I'm seeing my family. Fauci can go fxck a cactus.

He said it's safe to do that if everyone is vaccinated.

I don't see why being vaccinated would make that any safer. It's mostly about the spines.

Hospitalization risk between vaccinated/unvaccinated is worlds apart.

I think a few people (sadly) have missed the joke here.

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PQG, I feel like that story is going to be a lot more common here in the coming weeks, so no worrries about attention whoring. Hope you get to feeling better soon!

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Hospitalizations in NJ are at 3604 today (source) and quickly rising. The peak last winter was 3800. Omicron may be less severe than Delta but now we are seeing that since it is ridiculously contagious, the sheer number of infected people can still cause a large number of hospitalizations. This forum should have treated this possibility more seriously instead of dismissing Omicron as the common cold.

So what, then, should “this forum” do about the unvaccinated people now clogging the hospitals? For most of us, Omicron *is* the common cold, if even that. It’s not reasonable to ask us to grind our lives to a halt at this point if the crisis isn’t going to be managed from the top.

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Omicron is far too transmissible for most measures short of forcing people into their homes to work to contain it. The federal government obviously can’t do that. Even asking people to stay home from work without compensation is a burden. The country’s economy is simply not set up to contain a virus like this — I’m not saying it’s right, but it’s the reality of the situation.

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I won’t say I’m anti-restriction entirely (I’m still wearing my mask to work and to the store and such), but if this variant is as transmissible as it appears, I’m not sure that masking in public is as beneficial as it once was. Certainly masking in private seems like a fool’s errand. And I’m very tired of the patronizing rhetoric that suggests there’s a moral dimension to contracting the disease. It may be time to accept that we’re all going to get the virus in some form or another and just protect ourselves from severe outcomes with vaccines.

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Frankly it's not that difficult.  I haven't been to a big concert or an indoor sporting event since COVID started but other than that I can't really think of anything I'd like to do that I'm not doing other than international travel.

Frankly, this is bullsh**t, and exactly the kind of rhetoric I was talking about in my last post. I haven’t caught COVID yet either, but “just don’t catch the virus, checkmate people who socialize” helps literally no one except you.

EDIT: And your last paragraph is actively repugnant. (On a purely scientific level, I can’t believe you’re doubling down on the “wash your hands” rhetoric as if we’re still in March 2020.)

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Look, I recognize that the diseases are very, VERY different, but every HIV/AIDS researcher worth a salt has made it clear that this kind of “just be an adult” rhetoric simply doesn’t work, and it often has the opposite of its intended effect. Social science is a science, too — and those here who claim to be following the science should take a lesson from those who have managed a pandemic before.