CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Mr.Phips]

Ok, so I haven't posted on this board for months.

Biden is president-elect, yet I come on here and numerous dems are treating 2020 election as some sort of loss for dems. wtf?

who cares about downballot? Nobody remembers presidential election years by what happens in house and senate.

The dems won the 2020 election, end of story.

There’s a lot of injustices in our system that only a Dem trifecta could have made right.

Dems need to stop with the pollyannaish attitude.  This election was a disaster for Democrats below the Presidential level and need to realize that something with their messaging is very, very wrong.

[Mr.Phips]

Ok, so I haven't posted on this board for months.

Biden is president-elect, yet I come on here and numerous dems are treating 2020 election as some sort of loss for dems. wtf?

who cares about downballot? Nobody remembers presidential election years by what happens in house and senate.

The dems won the 2020 election, end of story.

Justice Merrick Garland is glad to know only the Presidency matters.

Haha yep.  Without the Senate, Dems will never get to appoint another Justice.

[Mr.Phips]

Meanwhile the AP has projected that fmr. Congressman Darrell Issa will be returning back to Congress this time representing the 50th Congressional District in CA...Pelosis & Bidens worst nightmare.

It really isn’t. They get to avoid obvious grifter Ammar Campa-Najjar and get another walking opportunity to portray GOP Representatives as corrupt elites. This is one of the least bad losses for House Democrats, along with Shalala’s seat.

This is such an hilariously bad argument from you. Pelosi is the one who is corrupt. Running as Speaker again, probably for the last time because in 2022 we will retire her once and for all. Her stubborness not wanting to make a Deal with the Administration when it comes to COVID-19 Relief Bill did cost her a lot of House Seats.

Yeah what Pelosi did with the COVID relief bill should be enough to get her booted from her speakership.  She should have passed what Mnuchin offered her (1.8 trillion).

[Mr.Phips]

Meanwhile the AP has projected that fmr. Congressman Darrell Issa will be returning back to Congress this time representing the 50th Congressional District in CA...Pelosis & Bidens worst nightmare.

It really isn’t. They get to avoid obvious grifter Ammar Campa-Najjar and get another walking opportunity to portray GOP Representatives as corrupt elites. This is one of the least bad losses for House Democrats, along with Shalala’s seat.

This is such an hilariously bad argument from you. Pelosi is the one who is corrupt. Running as Speaker again, probably for the last time because in 2022 we will retire her once and for all. Her stubborness not wanting to make a Deal with the Administration when it comes to COVID-19 Relief Bill did cost her a lot of House Seats.

Yeah what Pelosi did with the COVID relief bill should be enough to get her booted from her speakership.  She should have passed what Mnuchin offered her (1.8 trillion).

That move might have won Biden the election though.

She should have thought about her caucus and House races as well as the welfare of the country before the Presidential election.  Now there might not even be a relief bill and Democrats lost a bunch of seats.

[Mr.Phips]

Meanwhile the AP has projected that fmr. Congressman Darrell Issa will be returning back to Congress this time representing the 50th Congressional District in CA...Pelosis & Bidens worst nightmare.

It really isn’t. They get to avoid obvious grifter Ammar Campa-Najjar and get another walking opportunity to portray GOP Representatives as corrupt elites. This is one of the least bad losses for House Democrats, along with Shalala’s seat.

This is such an hilariously bad argument from you. Pelosi is the one who is corrupt. Running as Speaker again, probably for the last time because in 2022 we will retire her once and for all. Her stubborness not wanting to make a Deal with the Administration when it comes to COVID-19 Relief Bill did cost her a lot of House Seats.

Yeah what Pelosi did with the COVID relief bill should be enough to get her booted from her speakership.  She should have passed what Mnuchin offered her (1.8 trillion).

That move might have won Biden the election though.

She should have thought about her caucus and House races as well as the welfare of the country before the Presidential election.  Now there might not even be a relief bill and Democrats lost a bunch of seats.

If Trump won, there wouldn't be a relief bill.

Isn’t this hypothetical predicated on a COVID relief bill passing in October?  If a relief bill was passed in October, there would have been a relief bill.

[Mr.Phips]

Meanwhile the AP has projected that fmr. Congressman Darrell Issa will be returning back to Congress this time representing the 50th Congressional District in CA...Pelosis & Bidens worst nightmare.

It really isn’t. They get to avoid obvious grifter Ammar Campa-Najjar and get another walking opportunity to portray GOP Representatives as corrupt elites. This is one of the least bad losses for House Democrats, along with Shalala’s seat.

This is such an hilariously bad argument from you. Pelosi is the one who is corrupt. Running as Speaker again, probably for the last time because in 2022 we will retire her once and for all. Her stubborness not wanting to make a Deal with the Administration when it comes to COVID-19 Relief Bill did cost her a lot of House Seats.

Yeah what Pelosi did with the COVID relief bill should be enough to get her booted from her speakership.  She should have passed what Mnuchin offered her (1.8 trillion).

So that McConnell could spike it?

I think McConnell would have passed it.

[Mr.Phips]

Meanwhile the AP has projected that fmr. Congressman Darrell Issa will be returning back to Congress this time representing the 50th Congressional District in CA...Pelosis & Bidens worst nightmare.

It really isn’t. They get to avoid obvious grifter Ammar Campa-Najjar and get another walking opportunity to portray GOP Representatives as corrupt elites. This is one of the least bad losses for House Democrats, along with Shalala’s seat.

This is such an hilariously bad argument from you. Pelosi is the one who is corrupt. Running as Speaker again, probably for the last time because in 2022 we will retire her once and for all. Her stubborness not wanting to make a Deal with the Administration when it comes to COVID-19 Relief Bill did cost her a lot of House Seats.

Yeah what Pelosi did with the COVID relief bill should be enough to get her booted from her speakership.  She should have passed what Mnuchin offered her (1.8 trillion).

That move might have won Biden the election though.

It might have helped House Democrats but would have been much more likely to hurt than help Biden.

Pelosi’s job was to help House Democrats, not Biden.

[Mr.Phips]

Meanwhile the AP has projected that fmr. Congressman Darrell Issa will be returning back to Congress this time representing the 50th Congressional District in CA...Pelosis & Bidens worst nightmare.

It really isn’t. They get to avoid obvious grifter Ammar Campa-Najjar and get another walking opportunity to portray GOP Representatives as corrupt elites. This is one of the least bad losses for House Democrats, along with Shalala’s seat.

This is such an hilariously bad argument from you. Pelosi is the one who is corrupt. Running as Speaker again, probably for the last time because in 2022 we will retire her once and for all. Her stubborness not wanting to make a Deal with the Administration when it comes to COVID-19 Relief Bill did cost her a lot of House Seats.

Yeah what Pelosi did with the COVID relief bill should be enough to get her booted from her speakership.  She should have passed what Mnuchin offered her (1.8 trillion).

That move might have won Biden the election though.

It might have helped House Democrats but would have been much more likely to hurt than help Biden.

Pelosi’s job was to help House Democrats, not Biden.

I'm not even sure it would have done that - it would depend on whether the people giving Trump credit for relief were prepared to split their tickets for the other folks responsible for the relief bill. Regardless, it should have happened anyway.

Because of Pelosi’s decision, Democrats will almost certainly lose the House in 2022 and not get it back until the next Republican President’s first midterm election.  The Senate is out of reach until at least 2028 and that likely requires a Republican Presidential victory in 2024 followed by a Dem Presidential victory in 2028.

If I were a Abigail Spanberger, Conor Lamb, or Ben McAdams, I’d vote against Pelosi as speaker.  Pelosi is a destructive force for Democrats.

[Mr.Phips]

If there are about 40,000 ballots left in NJ-7, Kean would need to win them by something like 65%(napkin math). That seems doable looking at the recent drops, but I don't think it's time to be writing Malinowski's political obituary just yet.

I wonder if there is more than 40k ballots left though. NJ Globe just offers it as an estimate - they seem to have an idea of how many are in Morris and Hunterdon respectively, but there is probably a good number of provisionals to consider in Somerset county as well.

I think Union County probably has around 20k left based on the following - it's reasonable to expect at least 10% more prez votes than 2016, which would equal 245927 prez votes this year. 200561 prez votes are currently counted, would indicate 45366 more to count, currently NJ-07 is 48% of the prez vote, so assuming this rate remains the same it would indicate 22k more votes from the NJ-07 portion of Union County. It could still be fewer votes, but if anything I think it's more likely to exceed this number because turnout is up nationwide and the amount of registered voters has increased by a magnitude of more than 10% from 2016. Overall wouldn't be surprised if outstanding ballots in the district is closer to 60k. Somerset County is currently at 115% of the 2016 total within the district, and Hunterdon and Warren are both at 121% (and both still have some ballots to count).

It would make redistricting way easier if Kean wins.  That way Kean picks up Republicans from Gottheimer and Sherrill and gives his Democrats to Sherrill.  That way they all get basically safe seats.

[Mr.Phips]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f03cb506-4850-456c-b12d-eaa371cb21c2

I was able to make a clearly R-leaning district for Kean that includes Westfield. Sherrill's district becomes about a point more R, Gottheimer's moves slightly to the left, and NJ-03 gains more of Ocean and loses most of the towns on the Delaware River, which get put into NJ-12.

That’s basically a Republican gerrymander.  The commission will draw an incumbent protection map.

NJ-03 will drop Ocean (to NJ-04) and pick up a big chunk of Mercer from NJ-04.

[Mr.Phips]

Kean now needs to win the remaining vote by 17.3% assuming there are 49,753 ballots left, could be more as 49,753 is a lower end estimate.

It appears that 50k is a *higher end* estimate:

"But the number could also experience a sudden drop, if a significant number of vote-by-mail voters who tracked their own ballots online also voted provisionally after being unable to verify that election officials had received their ballots.”

We also don't know the composite of what is left. We could still have more GOP-heavy batches left, or this could be a CO situation where we get thru the GOP-heavy batches to then have 50/50 or Dem-leaning batches.

Also, how many left are provisionals?  I really doubt the provisionals will be particularly Republican heavy.

[Mr.Phips]

Also, it's a nice to see all the panic from democrats about needing some huge popular vote margin to win both the electoral college and congress is turning out to be false. The senate is another story, but it looks like congress is going to end up being pretty representative of the national popular vote.

The EC bias likely got significantly worse vs. 2016.  Biden probably needed a 4%ish PV win to take the EC if the NY absentees skew as Dem as expected.  The deciding state is Wisconsin, not Pennsylvania because Republicans have the state delegations to reelect Trump in the House in a 269/269 tie.

However, it is impressive that Dems were able to hold the House majority with the House PV this close.  That would never have been expected in 2018.  The House PV should finish around D+3 at best.

I do think 2020 portends a better long term EC/Senate situation for Dems than 2016 did.  Georgia has been highly inelastic and could very well be a "once it goes, it's gone" situation, and the EC nightmare scenario where CA is 75% Dem for 25 years seems to have been averted.  New England swinging back hard to the left and the big swings in several Plains states suggest better possibilities in the senate down the line.

If there's anywhere this hurts in the long run, it's in the House.  The 2018 suburban districts mostly didn't swing left to the point where they are safe enough to spook R legislatures into drawing vote sinks.  The majority depends on people in 2X Trump districts now.  Texas and Florida can be safely gerrymandered for the foreseeable future.

What’s to stop Republicans from apportioning Georgia’s electoral votes by Congressional district? 

[Mr.Phips]

Probably good for the GOP in 2022, i think if she survived Tenney might have beaten Katko in a primary .

Dems can give Brindisi Syracuse to make him basically safe.

[Mr.Phips]

Probably good for the GOP in 2022, i think if she survived Tenney might have beaten Katko in a primary .

Dems can give Brindisi Syracuse to make him basically safe.

Yeah except now we have 2 unbeatable moderate hero titans facing each other. I think Katko beats Brindisi in 2022 though. A Syracuse based district would be like Clinton +0.5

Dems can draw the seat so Katko is only left with his weakest areas and Brindisin his strongest.  Katko has never had to face somebody anywhere near as strong as Brindisi.

[Mr.Phips]

Probably good for the GOP in 2022, i think if she survived Tenney might have beaten Katko in a primary .

Dems can give Brindisi Syracuse to make him basically safe.

Are you certain that they will got a super majority in the Senate ?

Looks very likely.  State Senate is currently 40-23.  It currently looks like Dems will lose two seats (with an outside shot of losing just one) and gain four (with a decent shot at a fifth).  42-21 would give Dems a supermajority.

[Mr.Phips]

As the days go on, it really seems like the dems didn’t do that bad in the house

They didn’t lose any seats that were unacceptable

FL-27 was an unacceptable loss.  Biden won that district.

[Mr.Phips]

As the days go on, it really seems like the dems didn’t do that bad in the house

They didn’t lose any seats that were unacceptable

As I've said before, the real issue was not getting more than three pickups so far-with two of those being entirely due to redistricting. You're right that many of the districts that fell (maybe with the exception the two in Florida) were always likely to only last for one term, but with those becoming GOP pickups there really should have been some Democratic ones to make up for that. AZ-6, CA-25 (which will probably happen), NE-2, NJ-2, and TX-23 were probably the most disappointing failures.

The only way to polish this turd of an election is if Brindisi, Hart, and Smith end up pulling away with wins. That would at least offset the Republican gains slightly. It's the best we can hope for.

TX-23 and AZ-06 went for Trump and NJ-02 probably did too.  However Dems have no excuse for losing Biden districts like TX-24, CA-25, and NE-02.  Those should have been Dem pickups.  Once again, Democrats should not have been turning out “Republicans for Biden” unless they were sure they would vote Dem down ballot.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1328837080676438027
L M A O

Hilarious that Gardner is still being as craven and weak-willed as he was before he lost reelection. He simply just doesn't care anymore.

There was speculation that Republicans were already hoping to recruit him for 2022 before his defeat this year. If he's up for that, his incentive to posture isn't much weaker than it was previously.

Lol Gardner is done.  If he had lost narrowly this year, he may have still been able to run and be competitive in 2022, but he got blown out by 10 points.  You don’t come back from a loss like that.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1329172541001379846

The virus is spreading like wildfire through the halls of Congress. At this point, it would be a miracle if Pelosi, McConnell, and the other party leaders didn't get it.

I'm not sure I would call McConnell not getting covid a miracle if you catch my drift

I second that.  This is a man who likely wants the economy to fail because it will hurt Biden.

[Mr.Phips]

If people had told me that Rouda, Cisneros, Shalala, and DMP would lose, but Brindisi, Delgado, (Andy) Kim, and Golden would win, I'd probably have asked them why these Congresspeople were sent in a time machine back to 2012...

Don't forget the fact that Andy Kim won by a bigger margin than Mikie Sherrill or Josh Gottheimer.

He also had a dumpster fire of an opponent, a newbie businessman who mostly ran on lockdown issues.

I'm not sure if Kim is safe in 2022 or not, but the more he gets entrenched the harder it'll be to knock him off.

Andy Kim’s performance was very impressive

Kim will get a much safer district.

[Mr.Phips]

Dems lost Margaret Good's Florida Senate seat too

A House seat, but yes they lost it just so good could lose by more than Biden lost the district I think lol.

Good probably would have lost re-election anyway.

[Mr.Phips]

So much for the hot takes that pelosi “lost” this election cycle

I mean, she did. Democrats should have gained ~10 seats. Losing any is definitely an underperformance.

Yeah but that's more Biden's fault for not winning by 8 points than hers-their fate was decided by the top of the ticket.

As the incumbent party in the House, Dems should have run ahead of Biden.  Pelosi should have taken Mnuchin’s 1.8 trillion stimulus offer and gotten Trump to force McConnell to pass it through the Senate.

[Mr.Phips]

So much for the hot takes that pelosi “lost” this election cycle

I mean, she did. Democrats should have gained ~10 seats. Losing any is definitely an underperformance.

Yeah but that's more Biden's fault for not winning by 8 points than hers-their fate was decided by the top of the ticket.

As the incumbent party in the House, Dems should have run ahead of Biden.  Pelosi should have taken Mnuchin’s 1.8 trillion stimulus offer and gotten Trump to force McConnell to pass it through the Senate.

A stimulus would've resulted in Trump's reelection.

If it helped the country and the Democratic House members, so be it.  It is not Pelosi’s job to worry about the Presidential election.  Protecting her caucus is her first priority.

Because of Pelosi, Democrats lost House seats and there probably won’t be any stimulus.

[Mr.Phips]

So much for the hot takes that pelosi “lost” this election cycle

I mean, she did. Democrats should have gained ~10 seats. Losing any is definitely an underperformance.

Yeah but that's more Biden's fault for not winning by 8 points than hers-their fate was decided by the top of the ticket.

As the incumbent party in the House, Dems should have run ahead of Biden.  Pelosi should have taken Mnuchin’s 1.8 trillion stimulus offer and gotten Trump to force McConnell to pass it through the Senate.

A stimulus would've resulted in Trump's reelection.

If it helped the country and the Democratic House members, so be it.  It is not Pelosi’s job to worry about the Presidential election.  Protecting her caucus is her first priority.

Because of Pelosi, Democrats lost House seats and there probably won’t be any stimulus.

Pelosi gambled! She wants to pass her 3Trillion $ Heroes Crap Act which under any circumstances won't pass. Manchin isn't going to vote for a 3 Trillon $$$$ Spending Bill even if Democrats take the Senate in January. Pelosi lost here BIG!

Pelosi is a fool.  She screwed the Democrats.

[Mr.Phips]

So much for the hot takes that pelosi “lost” this election cycle

I mean, she did. Democrats should have gained ~10 seats. Losing any is definitely an underperformance.

Yeah but that's more Biden's fault for not winning by 8 points than hers-their fate was decided by the top of the ticket.

As the incumbent party in the House, Dems should have run ahead of Biden.  Pelosi should have taken Mnuchin’s 1.8 trillion stimulus offer and gotten Trump to force McConnell to pass it through the Senate.

A stimulus would've resulted in Trump's reelection.

If it helped the country and the Democratic House members, so be it.  It is not Pelosi’s job to worry about the Presidential election.  Protecting her caucus is her first priority.

Because of Pelosi, Democrats lost House seats and there probably won’t be any stimulus.

Fortunately Pelosi realized that a second term Trump would've led to a collapse of free and fair elections and in all likelihood the end of the Democratic party.

She was looking out for her caucus.

I think it's disgusting that we still don't have a stimulus but four more years of Trump would've caused far, far more damage long term.

Do you realize that not getting a stimulus is going to result in many people losing their jobs? 

Democrats will likely lose the House in 2022 under Biden and probably not get it back until the midterm of a Republican President.  Dems won’t get the Senate back this decade.