CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1328837080676438027

L M A O

[n1240]

Decided to look more into LA precinct results because I noticed they actually provide Excel rather than just PDF format. Currently they don't have results from post-eday counted ballots so I'm working with the final election night results here. Biden was up 13% in LA portion of CA-25 while Smith was only up 2.7%, assuming Biden is outrunning Smith by a similar margin in Ventura, then he's actually on track to win the district by more than Clinton and the district is likely to trend Dem.

Also decided to check LA portion of CA-39 and found that Biden was up 23% while Cisneros was only up 10%. This also implies that Biden is on track to perform better than Clinton did in the district (Biden is up 6% in the OC portion of the district), although it probably trends slightly right.

[VAR]

TX-15 is giving me MN-01 2016 vibes. I smell blood in the water.

[wbrocks67]

Decided to look more into LA precinct results because I noticed they actually provide Excel rather than just PDF format. Currently they don't have results from post-eday counted ballots so I'm working with the final election night results here. Biden was up 13% in LA portion of CA-25 while Smith was only up 2.7%, assuming Biden is outrunning Smith by a similar margin in Ventura, then he's actually on track to win the district by more than Clinton and the district is likely to trend Dem.

Also decided to check LA portion of CA-39 and found that Biden was up 23% while Cisneros was only up 10%. This also implies that Biden is on track to perform better than Clinton did in the district (Biden is up 6% in the OC portion of the district), although it probably trends slightly right.

Jesus... Smith and Cisneros underperforming *THAT* much from Biden is unacceptable

[Torie]

f you can divine the internally inconsistent numbers in this article, which in passing do not match mine or Rosenblatt's (and ours do not match each other), you are a better person than I.

Is the number of uncounted ballots 12,183 or 9,033? Assuming it is 9,033, and we assume 5% of those did not cast a ballot for Tenney or Brindisi in the NY-22 race, then Brindisi wins by a handful of votes with a 71% share, not 72% (it is not rounding because 70.98% or something is enough to win for Brindisi). If you assume 100% of the 9,033 cast  a valid ballot in the race, for Brindisi or Tenney, the percentage Brindisi needs to win drops a bit more. The human species is flawed. Who knew?

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-claudia-tenney-separated-by-3500-votes-in-house-race.html

         Tenney lead: 3576   
         59316 - 47133 = 12183   
            
         (9033*.95 = 8581)   
              8581 x .71 = 6092   
         8581-6092 = 2489   
         6092-2489 = 3603

[Frenchrepublican]

TX-15 is giving me MN-01 2016 vibes. I smell blood in the water.

Yeah, especially that Gonzalez, contrary to Vela and Cuellar, is a pretty bad fit for the area.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1328837080676438027

L M A O

Hilarious that Gardner is still being as craven and weak-willed as he was before he lost reelection. He simply just doesn't care anymore.

[Roll Roons]

Looks like it's now down to CA-21, CA-25, the IA-02 recount and NY-22. My guess is that Republicans win the two CA seats and IA-02 while Brindisi narrowly holds on, giving Democrats a 222-212 majority (accounting for Cedric Richmond's resignation).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1328837080676438027
L M A O

Hilarious that Gardner is still being as craven and weak-willed as he was before he lost reelection. He simply just doesn't care anymore.

There was speculation that Republicans were already hoping to recruit him for 2022 before his defeat this year. If he's up for that, his incentive to posture isn't much weaker than it was previously.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1328837080676438027
L M A O

Hilarious that Gardner is still being as craven and weak-willed as he was before he lost reelection. He simply just doesn't care anymore.

There was speculation that Republicans were already hoping to recruit him for 2022 before his defeat this year. If he's up for that, his incentive to posture isn't much weaker than it was previously.

Lol Gardner is done.  If he had lost narrowly this year, he may have still been able to run and be competitive in 2022, but he got blown out by 10 points.  You don’t come back from a loss like that.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1328837080676438027
L M A O

Hilarious that Gardner is still being as craven and weak-willed as he was before he lost reelection. He simply just doesn't care anymore.

There was speculation that Republicans were already hoping to recruit him for 2022 before his defeat this year. If he's up for that, his incentive to posture isn't much weaker than it was previously.

I'm aware of this, but Gardner's prospects for future statewide office in Colorado are done after this year. He will not defeat Bennet or Polis under virtually any circumstances.

[Torie]

With a bit more info popping up in the problematic article I linked above, and assuming that the balance of Oneida replicates the percentage split (71.3%) from the most recent vote dump from Oneida (from the more rural areas of Oneida presumably), we find if the numbers are accurate, and assuming 95% of the remaining ballots cast a vote for one of the two candidates, that Brindisi needs about 70.5% of the share of votes uncounted in Chenango.



Pro tip for future candidate aspirants: The parties should find out who voted absentee who were not registered Dems in New York. Since a very, very high percentage of the NOP’s and about a quarter of the registered Pubs, voted for Brindisi, I would characterize them as swing voters who need a lot of love and attention going forward.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1328837080676438027
L M A O

Poor guy, leave him be, bloody hell.

[VAR]

AP calls NY-03 for Thomas Suozzi (D-inc).

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1328837080676438027

L M A O

What a Nice Reasonable Moderate

[wbrocks67]

AP calls NY-03 for Thomas Suozzi (D-inc).

Good. Now they need to call NY-19 too.

[2016]

I think we can officially CA-21 for Valadao. T. J. Cox needs 68 % of the remaining Kern Ballots go in his favor just to draw even without having even Ballots added from GOP-leaning Fresno and Kings.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I think we can officially CA-21 for Valadao. T. J. Cox needs 68 % of the remaining Kern Ballots go in his favor just to draw even without having even Ballots added from GOP-leaning Fresno and Kings.

I think that's the better bet, but I imagine the margin will close

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1329117514341752834

[2016]

Sorry that I have to say this: The Nassau County (New York State) Elections Supervisor should be FIRED immediatedly. The Reason why the Associated Press is unable to call NY-1 (Zeldin) and NY-2 (Andrew Garbarino vs Jackie Gordon) is because Nassau won't start counting Absentees until tomorrow.

There could be Voter Fraud in Nassau all over the place if you wait to count Absentees almost 2 1/2 Weeks after the Election.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Sorry that I have to say this: The Nassau County (New York State) Elections Supervisor should be FIRED immediatedly. The Reason why the Associated Press is unable to call NY-1 (Zeldin) and NY-2 (Andrew Garbarino vs Jackie Gordon) is because Nassau won't start counting Absentees until tomorrow.

There could be Voter Fraud in Nassau all over the place if you wait to count Absentees almost 2 1/2 Weeks after the Election.

Most election supervisors nationwide should be fired. Wtf is the reason that Los Angeles is only counting votes for 2 days a week, and for only 6 damn hours?

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1328837080676438027
L M A O

Hilarious that Gardner is still being as craven and weak-willed as he was before he lost reelection. He simply just doesn't care anymore.

There was speculation that Republicans were already hoping to recruit him for 2022 before his defeat this year. If he's up for that, his incentive to posture isn't much weaker than it was previously.

I'm aware of this, but Gardner's prospects for future statewide office in Colorado are done after this year. He will not defeat Bennet or Polis under virtually any circumstances.

I can't imagine who else the GOP could run that has any electoral success. The 3 House Reps wouldn't give up their seats to run most likely, and every row office is held by Democrats. Why not put Gardner up again, he still outran Trump by 4 points.

[2016]

Sorry that I have to say this: The Nassau County (New York State) Elections Supervisor should be FIRED immediatedly. The Reason why the Associated Press is unable to call NY-1 (Zeldin) and NY-2 (Andrew Garbarino vs Jackie Gordon) is because Nassau won't start counting Absentees until tomorrow.

There could be Voter Fraud in Nassau all over the place if you wait to count Absentees almost 2 1/2 Weeks after the Election.

Most election supervisors nationwide should be fired. Wtf is the reason that Los Angeles is only counting votes for 2 days a week, and for only 6 damn hours?

Yup, it's very bad optics. LA County I can understand a bit because it's quite large. I do not understand Nassau at all TBH.

Wasserman thinks Garbarino will hang on but IMO it's crap starting counting 2 weeks after the Election.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Sorry that I have to say this: The Nassau County (New York State) Elections Supervisor should be FIRED immediatedly. The Reason why the Associated Press is unable to call NY-1 (Zeldin) and NY-2 (Andrew Garbarino vs Jackie Gordon) is because Nassau won't start counting Absentees until tomorrow.

There could be Voter Fraud in Nassau all over the place if you wait to count Absentees almost 2 1/2 Weeks after the Election.

Most election supervisors nationwide should be fired. Wtf is the reason that Los Angeles is only counting votes for 2 days a week, and for only 6 damn hours?

Yup, it's very bad optics. LA County I can understand a bit because it's quite large. I do not understand Nassau at all TBH.

Wasserman thinks Garbarino will hang on but IMO it's crap starting counting 2 weeks after the Election.

It's understandable they take a while to count, not understandable that they're only counting two days  a week, for just 12 hours a week.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/IAFieldReport/status/1328894770123591681