GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Amazing what Herschel Walker has done to his life & family all because Trump told him to run for the Senate.

It's why I genuinely don't understand most peoples' motivation to run for office.  I'm not talking about your Lucy McBath types (the rare few who actually run on a sole desire to make actual change based on personal tragedy or hardship).  

I'm talking about those who think it will bring them personal glory or a prestigious lifestyle.

Especially in today's day and age, you don't get to have secrets or a personal life anymore.  This is hard enough to do as a private doctor or teacher, let alone having your dirty laundry aired as part of attack ads or talking points by your opponents.  

I think it was Michelle Obama who said that the biggest difficulty of being First Lady was her loss of anonymity.  Not that Herschel Walker was a nobody before this run, but still.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/aaronlarnavarro/status/1577296572509216773
Prediction: such a lawsuit will never be filed.

That's one of the most corporate-a** tweets I've ever seen. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The number of Twitter peeps saying that Christian's account was "hacked" despite him posting monologue videos reinforcing the text in his tweets is worrying. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

the copium

https://twitter.com/GabbyOrr_/status/1577340767542165506

"You can be awful but still make it! How inspiring!"

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/dloesch/status/1577348109704871960

Classy…

Life Pro Tip: we love being referred to as broads.  (Other acceptable terms include "skirts", "skanks" and "dames").  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Walker going the Mariah Carey "i don't know her" route

Snippy-snip!

Walker also claims that he has never signed his name with just an "H" (as featured on the get well card). 

But to my untrained eye, the overall handwriting does seem to line up with his very looping and flowing handwriting style (I will give him that, he has beautiful penmanship) - - though I also realize that handwriting matching is an imprecise science.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

One problem that Republicans have is that nobody under age 50 actually remembers the fabulous games he played as a running back with Georgia. It's not like it's Todd Gurley on the ballot.

This.  One of my kids is a grad student at UGA.  As an undergrad, he had a student job that involved selling UGA gear at Sanford Stadium during home football games.  At the beginning of this year's campaign, I mentioned to him that Herschel Walker was probably running for Senate.  He replied "who's that?"

To be fair, nobody knows who any UGA players are

(Go Horns!)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

You know sh**t's real when Gloria Allred gets involved.  I'll never forget her wading into the 2017 AL-SEN election and that p/c where her client showed off the yearbook that Roy Moore signed. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Walker is viewed as the pro-life and pro-family candidate even if he has a somewhat questionable past because his opponent is a pro-choice pastor. That's why the race is still a tossup.

His past isn't "questionable". He physically and emotionally abused his ex-wife, impregnated multiple women while he was married and then paid for abortions, had a child out of wedlock and then was an absentee father, and, last but not least, appears to have been a terrible father. In no way, shape or form could he be described as a "pro-life" or "pro-family" candidate - he's literally pro-abortion and hates family.

All of this is true, but Republican voters don't care. They see Walker as a vote for their legislative priorities and are going to support him because of that alone.

I'm surprised some of y'all are surprised by this.  Legislative agenda is part of what keeps me voting with the GOP, especially downballot.  Not on every issue, mind you, but still -- I can't imagine I'm an oddball in that sense. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Walker is viewed as the pro-life and pro-family candidate even if he has a somewhat questionable past because his opponent is a pro-choice pastor. That's why the race is still a tossup.

His past isn't "questionable". He physically and emotionally abused his ex-wife, impregnated multiple women while he was married and then paid for abortions, had a child out of wedlock and then was an absentee father, and, last but not least, appears to have been a terrible father. In no way, shape or form could he be described as a "pro-life" or "pro-family" candidate - he's literally pro-abortion and hates family.

All of this is true, but Republican voters don't care. They see Walker as a vote for their legislative priorities and are going to support him because of that alone.

I'm surprised some of y'all are surprised by this.  Legislative agenda is part of what keeps me voting with the GOP, especially downballot.  Not on every issue, mind you, but still -- I can't imagine I'm an oddball in that sense.  

On the flip side you had Menéndez in 2018 where a lot of Dems who found him to be disgusting as a person but thought repudiation against Trump was more important. Menéndez did slightly underperform a generic del considering the year. But thinking about how he did like 10 points better than Phil Murphy gets me disappointed and points to a problem with our politics.

My mom, who is a pretty staunch Dem but dislikes Menéndez is considering casting a protest vote this year in NJ-08 for his son. NJ-08 is an ultra ultra safe district so her vote will be more of a message than decisive. If NJ-08 was a more competitive district she would fall in line right away.

I seriously hope they both either retire soon or get out primaried. Senator Menéndez just seems like a very flawed individual with weak moral character and child Menéndez comes across as entitled and opportunutistic; being represented by a Corrupt Senator, his Son, and Cory Booker in congress will suck.

Oh I would've voted for Hugin in a heartbeat.  I'd vote for Zeldin if I was a New Yorker (but thank goodness I'm not hehe ) or Ronchetti if I was a New Mexi...can(?).   And yes, I'd probably vote for Greg Abbott again in my native Texas. 

On the other hand, I'd vote for Warnock in Georgia or Kelly in Arizona just bc I dislike their opponents to such a high degree, not necessarily because I'm pulling for the Democrats to hold onto the Senate.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Walker is viewed as the pro-life and pro-family candidate even if he has a somewhat questionable past because his opponent is a pro-choice pastor. That's why the race is still a tossup.

His past isn't "questionable". He physically and emotionally abused his ex-wife, impregnated multiple women while he was married and then paid for abortions, had a child out of wedlock and then was an absentee father, and, last but not least, appears to have been a terrible father. In no way, shape or form could he be described as a "pro-life" or "pro-family" candidate - he's literally pro-abortion and hates family.

All of this is true, but Republican voters don't care. They see Walker as a vote for their legislative priorities and are going to support him because of that alone.

I'm surprised some of y'all are surprised by this.  Legislative agenda is part of what keeps me voting with the GOP, especially downballot.  Not on every issue, mind you, but still -- I can't imagine I'm an oddball in that sense. 

On the flip side you had Menéndez in 2018 where a lot of Dems who found him to be disgusting as a person but thought repudiation against Trump was more important. Menéndez did slightly underperform a generic del considering the year. But thinking about how he did like 10 points better than Phil Murphy gets me disappointed and points to a problem with our politics.

My mom, who is a pretty staunch Dem but dislikes Menéndez is considering casting a protest vote this year in NJ-08 for his son. NJ-08 is an ultra ultra safe district so her vote will be more of a message than decisive. If NJ-08 was a more competitive district she would fall in line right away.

I seriously hope they both either retire soon or get out primaried. Senator Menéndez just seems like a very flawed individual with weak moral character and child Menéndez comes across as entitled and opportunutistic; being represented by a Corrupt Senator, his Son, and Cory Booker in congress will suck.

Oh I would've voted for Hugin in a heartbeat.  I'd vote for Zeldin if I was a New Yorker (but thank goodness I'm not hehe ) or Ronchetti if I was a New Mexi...can(?).   

On the other hand, I'd vote for Warnock in Georgia or Kelly in Arizona just bc I dislike their opponents to such a high degree, not necessarily because I'm pulling for the Democrats to hold onto the Senate. 

I wish we had more people like you who consider peoples character and hold fundamentally “bad” people accountable in politics. Especially for people who deeply care about politics, I think it can be hard to disassociate the person form the politics. At the end of the day both the House and Senate are bodies of people and for every person elected D or R who has clear moral convictions, limits, and general intelligence, the quality of that body of people goes up.

Oh don't get me wrong, I still get sucked into the team mentality.  My vote for Cornyn in 2014/2020 and Cruz in 2018 wasn't because I like their characters.  I find Cruz quite slimy and spineless.  I find Cornyn boring and bland.  I definitely would've voted for Beto if we were just going off character.  But I wanted Republicans to retain the Senate.  Point blank. 

OTOH, I would vote Zeldin partly to send a message to the Democratic Party of New York and Ronchetti because MLG makes my skin crawl. 

It really depends on the circumstances and the candidates. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just a shower thought: considering how it'sbeen trending at the Prezi level, does Forsyth County flip at the Congressional/Prezi level in the next decade?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

None of the major sources seem to have updated turnout figures, so I decided to take a look at the SoS absentee file that - magically, for once this week - posted in the middle of the night and now requires splicing into multiple files in order to load.

1,860,717 voters are listed as having their ballots cast/returned as of now. This includes whomever may have their mail ballots rejected (as of Friday's close, this discrepancy is just a hair under 1,000 votes) as well as my projections of another 70k ABMs yet to be returned (there are 96k ABMs outstanding, but I'm projecting 90% return rate - as we saw in November - among the 236k total ABMs issued). At any rate...

...with the above numbers, 388,199 ballots (+/- 1000) were cast or returned yesterday (Friday). This is obviously a record-breaking one-day total. We'll have final data (with race, gender and age breakdowns) this morning at some point.

There may be a handful of counties or ballots yet to be reported to SoS in the mix from Friday, but I don't expect them to be a large sum. As such, we can take the 1.86m banked EVs and combine them with 0.07m EVs to arrive at a grand projected EV total of 1,930,000 early votes cast for the runoff.

Hey! You don't get to use red text for non-mod-related posts! I was all excited for someone getting yelled at. 

Seriously though, can someone remind me: what was the EV total heading into runoff day of 2020?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

To those in the know: are we likely to see any big discrepancies from the general to the special in terms of county margins? (As in counties shifting greatly from November 8th to this Toozdee?)

Use a no. 2 pencil, and show your work for partial credit

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Rise and shine, y'all!

The season finale of the 2022 midterms is here!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Sorry y'all was on a date. Did I miss the fireworks?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

That's a lie.  Atlas'ers don't go to parties

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

On MSNBC just heard that Fulton will dump all of their remaining EV's at the top of the hour and finalize counting sometime around 1:00 AM to 2:00 EM Eastern Time...

The top of the hour should be enough for me to break out the bourbon.

Already sipping my Canadian Whiskey and my wife her Tito's Vodka....

Ugh, I'm still digesting the lobster from the date I went on tonight.  Wine was pretty spectacular, he really shelled out

On another note, cautiously pleased to see things going Warnock's way...

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

For Warnock to only win by 1 would be a major disappointment, if obviously still a win in the end. Walker is barely coherent, and would lose by 20 without racial and partisan tribalism. It would be a sobering signal that Georgia ultimately still has a clear Republican lean.

Needle has jumped to Warnock +1.8. Seems to be adjusting to strong metro ATL margins for Warnock. Call me foolish, but I honestly still think it leans too far towards Walker. Currently they're predicting the Gwinnett and Chatham (Savannah) E-Day vote to be near even. While that could happen, it still seems not so plausible.

Needle was turned off and the race was virtually tied at 64% of the vote in when I started checking this thread. Reverend and Quarterback have been trading leads for the last hour or so, right now it's 50.07-49.93 Walker at 82% in.

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

That's a lie.  Atlas'ers don't go to parties

But y'all go on a ton of (in-person) dates- and if the LGBT caucus is any indication, clearly aren't lacking in sexual partners.

I don't understand why we even have the needle half the time.  ****Ing thing sucks! (We'll do it live!)

And y'all as in me or Atlas?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

See Cali? This is how we count votes. 

C'mon.  Y'all can do it. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Of course they should have called it already, but for whatever it's worth, once one major outlet calls it all the others will follow suit within like 30 seconds, and that cascade will be a very cathartic moment.

Unforgettable moment was when PA was officially called in 2020 and watching the word quickly spread that Joe has, for all intents and purposes, won the whole thing. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Congratulations to you, Reverend Warnock! And congratulations to my Democratic friends on your marvelous overall performance in this cycle's midterm. 

It wasn't the partisan result I wanted, but I can at least take solace that y'all kept individuals such as Oz, Masters, Laxalt, and Walker away from Congress. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Congratulations to you, Reverend Warnock! And congratulations to my Democratic friends on your marvelous overall performance in this cycle's midterm.  

It wasn't the partisan result I wanted, but I can at least take solace that y'all kept individuals such as Oz, Masters, Laxalt, and Walker away from Congress.  

Why Laxalt with the other 3 as he seemed like a pretty normie R.

Didn't care for his character, just struck me as a very vindictive and unpleasant person.  Maybe it was just me, tho. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

To his credit, I appreciated that Walker didn't stand up there and rant/rave about how "the fight isn't over!!!" and "we are looking at irregularities!" (which are, yes, concerns to have if your race is actually close for either party). 

His speech was short and sweet.  I hope that he just goes away and takes care of himself. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

And now an angry letter to my Georgia Democratic Atlas friends.  

Dear Georgia Democrats,

ONE county? You only flipped ONE county from Walker to Warnock?

Sincerely,

PQG