GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[MT Treasurer]

Not going to post any more updates from the >95% in counties (which happen to be Republican counties, much to the dismay of my friend Forumlurker), but it’s looking like a slight rightward swing from Jan. 2021 and extremely close to the Nov. 2022 margins. Turnout is pretty solid as well. Probably not enough for Walker, but points to a close race unless Walker collapses in the urban & suburban areas.

At least wait for more election day vote before calling it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Walker county is 47% in with 77-23 Walker.

Lol.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

That's a lie.  Atlas'ers don't go to parties

[Dani Rose]

Walker county is 47% in with 77-23 Walker.

Walker wins Walker. Walker sweep.

[Dani Rose]

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

That's a lie.  Atlas'ers don't go to parties

It's true. I host them!

[It’s so Joever]

5% overperformance by Warnock in Glynn. This is not a random rural, it is a coastal. If this holds that is a red (Atlas red) flag for the GOP

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Eyes are on Forsyth.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600296155153252354?s=20&t=ZNyj339qXpO...

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1600296170143842305?s=20&t=ZNyj339...

[Oryxslayer]

So I feel safe calling Warnock the Winner, and probably by more than 1-2%, though can't be fully sure. The reasoning is simple, we got two different stories going on in cities and suburbs vs the periphery. The rurals are seeing some rural African American turnoff but plenty of GOP turnout. But the suburbs are not seeing the GOP turnout they did before by a notable degree.


Which makes sense given prior info:

[UncleSam]

Gabriel Sterling just estimated 3.3M total votes on CNN. That means like 1.4m-ish ED votes?

[Ferguson97]

Walker county is 47% in with 77-23 Walker.

Walker wins Walker. Walker sweep.

I loved when Walker looked at the camera and said, "It's walkin' time."

[Alben Barkley]

Yeah this is over, I stand by my Warnock call. It will just be more like Bill Clinton's 1992 win (which was instacalled) than Kemp's 2022 win.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Eyes are on Forsyth.

Wow my timing is great. Forsyth is in. 55% in, 64-36 for Walker.

[Skill and Chance]

Not going to post any more updates from the >95% in counties (which happen to be Republican counties, much to the dismay of my friend Forumlurker), but it’s looking like a slight rightward swing from Jan. 2021 and extremely close to the Nov. 2022 margins. Turnout is pretty solid as well. Probably not enough for Walker, but points to a close race unless Walker collapses in the urban & suburban areas.

At least wait for more election day vote before calling it.

Yes, the rurals look just like November on average.  Which would still be a Warnock win, but nothing like the polling.

[Not Me, Us]

Walker county is 47% in with 77-23 Walker.

Walker wins Walker. Walker sweep.

I loved when Walker looked at the camera and said, "It's walkin' time."

Definitely one of the candidates of all time.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Needle is on the edge of Tossup and lean Warnock now.

[LimoLiberal]

Glynn is not complete - still three Republican precincts left to report, according to their elections website.

[Skill and Chance]

Eyes are on Forsyth.

Wow my timing is great. Forsyth is in. 55% in, 64-36 for Walker.

The needle says Warnock should really like that result.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Walker county is 47% in with 77-23 Walker.

Walker wins Walker. Walker sweep.

Walkerception

[Alben Barkley]

Will be ironic if the polls are more off in Georgia this year than in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

[It’s so Joever]

Glynn is not complete - still three Republican precincts left to report, according to their elections website.

NYT is really awful at this tbf.

[ProudModerate2]

Needle is on the edge of Tossup and lean Warnock now.

Can someone post the link to "the needle."
thank you.

[Alben Barkley]

"This is a debate that I must confess I once had myself... when I was 7." -- Barack Obama on Walker's philosophical remarks about the merits of werewolves vs. vampires .

[Alben Barkley]

The needle is on the verge of going from "Tossup" to "Lean D."

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Raphael Warnock*incumbent
Democrat 907,055 +53.0%53.0%
Herschel Walker
Republican 803,941 +47.0%47.0
Total reported
1,710,996