California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

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If we’re going for an out of the box zaney pick I vote for Larry Agran. He’s still in Irvine politics.

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Also fun fact; Feinstein’s two predecessors are alive, John Seymour and Pete Wilson

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I guess Lee literally bullied her way into a seat.

https://twitter.com/andrewdesiderio/status/1708600537367621936?s=46&t=XC6qQa...


At least we aren’t getting Senator Schiff

No? If anything this works again Lee. Weber, for instance, had said she doesn’t want a seat with a time limit on it. This could entice some of Lee’s supporters to break ranks and accept an appointment. Before there was no reason for someone to leave their current position and burn their political bridges. Now, you could have, say Bass or Cohen, be appointed and Lee’s supporters would be put in a bind of how to approach this new wrench in the system.

As I said before, a limited appointment, not appointing a candidate, and appointing a black woman was a paradox of Newsom’s own making. He had to break one of his promises, and he chose the smartest one.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I guess Lee literally bullied her way into a seat.

https://twitter.com/andrewdesiderio/status/1708600537367621936

At least we aren’t getting Senator Schiff

No? If anything this works again Lee. Weber, for instance, had said she doesn’t want a seat with a time limit on it. This could entice some of Lee’s supporters to break ranks and accept an appointment. Before there was no reason for someone to leave their current position and burn their political bridges. Now, you could have, say Bass or Cohen, be appointed and Lee’s supporters would be put in a bind of how to approach this new wrench in the system.

As I said before, a limited appointment, not appointing a candidate, and appointing a black woman was a paradox of Newsom’s own making. He had to break one of his promises, and he chose the smartest one.

Weber's one of the potential picks who fielded concerns to Newsom that he should pick Lee per WaPo, & Bass is fully behind Lee, as is Cohen. I honestly think - as DT speculates - that no Black woman public official he offered the appointment to was willing to go against Lee & take it. Now, with the CBC very explicitly behind her too, incl. one Jim Clyburn, & Gavin clearly having his eyes set on '28...

You’re right in they’re all lined up behind Lee, but by Newsom opening the door to a life long senate career he might be able to ply one away into the senate. It’s far from a guarantee, but now the job atleast has some appeal to it. Personal interest can easily win out in such a scenario.

Truth be told I think this whole situation has basically killed any of Newsom’s political support for a presidential run.

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I’ll expand on the point I made earlier about Newsom’s future after this

Two important parts of being president is only making promises you can keep, and being able to balance the various interests groups when it comes time to fill your cabinet and the federal government. The latter point is especially important in garnering support for a presidential run. Newsom has shown incompetence in both regards by fencing himself into numerous conflicting promises, which put him in a position to piss off just about every demographic in the state. He appoints Lee, the Schiff and the Pelosi establishment crowd are fuming. Don’t appoint Lee and he pisses off every black politician in the state. And as far as either group is concerned he’s promised to do what they want, but it’s impossible to do both. It makes him untrustworthy and hypocritical.

If he can’t handle this I can’t imagine many groups will feel comfortable supporting him in a run for president. His presidential ambitions are on life support.

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I don't think it would even be much of a loss for Democrats if this whole saga tanked Newsom's presidential ambitions. If anything, he's one of the weaker potential candidates who could run post-Biden.

Don’t take me for lamenting Newsom’s demise. If anything I’m glad, but it’s interesting he’s done it to himself by a series of unforced errors.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I’ll expand on the point I made earlier about Newsom’s future after this

Two important parts of being president is only making promises you can keep, and being able to balance the various interests groups when it comes time to fill your cabinet and the federal government. The latter point is especially important in garnering support for a presidential run. Newsom has shown incompetence in both regards by fencing himself into numerous conflicting promises, which put him in a position to piss off just about every demographic in the state. He appoints Lee, the Schiff and the Pelosi establishment crowd are fuming. Don’t appoint Lee and he pisses off every black politician in the state. And as far as either group is concerned he’s promised to do what they want, but it’s impossible to do both. It makes him untrustworthy and hypocritical.

If he can’t handle this I can’t imagine many groups will feel comfortable supporting him in a run for president. His presidential ambitions are on life support.

Counterpoint: It is absolutely absurd to think that anyone in five years will remember or care about this. Are you listening to yourself?

Voters won’t give a damn, but politicians and organizers remember who their friends are. You can’t run a campaign when the people who would organize for you in states you have no connections don’t trust you. If Clyburn or Pelosi spreads word that Newsom can’t be trusted he’ll struggle to gain people on his side. Voters forget after five years, politicians don’t.

If you go to a mechanic and they make you pay threw the nose after not fixing anything, you’re not gonna go back they’re and tell people you know not to either.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Huh that’s cool:

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1708671789268947447

Oh boy talk about pitting groups against each other…

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The praise for Newsom is unexpected and surprising. I don’t really understand the basis. It may calm tempers, but a lot of the CBC is still gonna be upset that he didn’t pick Lee.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The praise for Newsom is unexpected and surprising. I don’t really understand the basis. It may calm tempers, but a lot of the CBC is still gonna be upset that he didn’t pick Lee.

I imagine most of the CBC will understand game. They tried a truly unprecedented move in electoral politics, they almost had it, and they were foiled.

It'll be Lee's other backers who will hold a grudge. Let them.

The CBC are Lee’s backers? Most of them had endorsed her before all this, including the CBC chair.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So Newsom endears himself to Labor, Women, and the LGBT probably ending slightly disfavored to even with black voters, and pissing of progressives and labor.

We’ll see how this plays out.

How is he endearing himself to labor and pissing them off at the same time?

Typo :/

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Looks like Butler isn't the only Marylander interested in representing CA in the US Senate...
https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1720067087052185950

Look, we only have 40 million people actually living in California, so it's hard to find someone who isn't a resident of a state of 6 million 3000 miles away here.

Honestly wouldn’t surprise me if half of Congress has an arguably primary residence in Maryland or Virginia

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It's not so much the living in MD thing, as it is the potential tax fiddling implied by the full thread. I should have focused on that, rather than the snark.

If the Maryland house is his primary residence for the sake of his mortgage, but his California condo is his primary residence in order to reduce his tax bill, then it's not a great look.

If you have more than like one assett tax fiddling is just what you do. It’s practically encouraged by how the IRS makes you figure your own taxes out.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Lee would probably have voted against the war on Japan in WWII, or against the civil war for that matter. It's one thing being a pacifist, it's another one entirely to be a dumb borderline security threat. People like Lee and Massie are the latter.

okey dokey

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Is it too late for Porter to just switch to running for her House seat again? This looks like a serious miscalculation for her.

Filing deadlines are way behind us.

Yup, that ship had sailed. I wouldn't say that her political career is over after this unless she pulls it off. She could try a comeback and run for some statewide offices in 2026 below governor (which already has enough actual or potential high-profile candidates). Running for gov later on might be easier from a statewide office anyway.

The BoE member for Orange County is 85 and may or may not be running for Porter’s seat (I keep finding conflicting info) so she can definitely run for that in 2026

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This campaign has really been a masterclass by Schiff.

A pro corporate democrat who got to act like a star in the Trump impeachment was always going to win.

Yea this was Schiff’s race to loose. California isn’t come super socialist progressive place, it’s pretty mainstream democratic

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The only person I know of (in America) that has a longer electoral career than Schaefer is Fred Risser, former Wisconsin state legislator from 1957-2021. Risser was also the last serving WW2 vet politician

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That was anticlimactic

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https://twitter.com/Curve125/status/1765252799116321100

Actually both. Adam’s wife is Eve so it’s Adam and Eve vs. Steve