Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

For Unidad Constituyente/Ex-New Majority/ex-Concertación.

They are dead. They have no project, no vision, and it showed. They have been intellectually and morally bankrupt since the last decade.  If the right was destroyed, Unidad Constituyente was obliterated from the face of the earth. Even La Lista del Pueblo got more votes than them. The country has clearly rejected their legacy.

Christian Democrats with 2 seats are hilarious. They please no one and they presented a lot of politicians relatives, second-tier wanna b politicians, it was a clear recipe for disaster. Their brand was toxic poison in a left-wing environment, probably what dragged down some of their high-quality candidates like Patricio Zapata. They did fine in municipal elections, which is their only solace.

The only analysis possible for PR and PPD is "lol". Those parties have absolutely no reason to continue to exist, but I doubt they will get the memo. Not impossible that they will be dissolved in the next parliamentary elections. Partido Liberal did fine, 3 seats are probably what they expected.

There is a single party that remains standing. The Partido Socialista (PS) got 15 of the 25 Unidad Constituyente seats. Just like in 2017, they were the only ones that survived the obliteration of their political camp. One could have many theories for their resilience, for one, they are perceived to be very left-wing. They have a long story that they can be proud of. My personal theory is that the people within the PS are still able to believe in what they are doing. In the last decade, they could still look up to Bachelet and see that there still something to believe in. That's why they are still able to attract high-quality candidates, and their brand isn't that toxic. But they still have troubles. Lot of them. I was a poll watcher for them and they had a lot of problems getting people (but at least they had people unlike the Other Unidad Constituyente parties) and I was asked "Whose son are you?", they didn't expect that I went there just because of affinity.

But they are probably the only party that could possibly turn around their situation. I was surprised that some of my friends decided to vote randomly for a PS candidate in the councilors. They have a chance to rebuild, but they have to take the chance. Otherwise, the resilience will eventually be depleted.

Unidad Constituyente was shut out from Tarapacá, Antofagasta (those regions are the craddle of the Chilean Left), south west Santiago, and Magallanes. The only place they won more than one seat was my district of Los Rios that elected 2 socialists (an extremely well-balanced pair, they complemented each other).

[kaoras]

Map of the results:



Original post in reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/chile/comments/nefcz3/mapa_resultados_elecciones_convenci%C3%B3n/

[kaoras]

Others here are commenting that Chile is not about to turn into a communist state, and they're right. But the results are still disastrous. Even if the Chilean Left will not be able to fully transform the society, it's a reality that the communists now have real influence and power, and that other left wing groups do as well. Changes, such as a gender parity mandate or an indigenous seats mandate, as well as anti-capitalist changes in the fundamental economic structures, should be expected. The country isn't about to turn into another Venezuela -- but it is a realistic expectation for it to become another Argentina.

This sentence is like the opposite of "arson, murder and jaywalking" Though I'm pretty sure there are people who would be equally incensed by a relatively minor change to the electoral system as by a radical restructuring of national economy. Putting these two on the same level speaks volumes about what American conservatives care about the most, and it's not the economy.

I'd gladly take an indigenous seats mandate if it meant a fully privatized economic system. But the reason I put those first two first is because they're the more likely outcomes, and they matter for the second one. The Chilean left will attempt to rig future elections by establishing electoral changes that benefit them, and from there they can go ahead with other policies. For instance, by giving left wing groups 17/155 seats from the get-go (as they did in this election) as "indigenous" seats.

Gender parity is mandated at the list level, it doesn't affect seat distribution between the right and the left. And indigenous peoples aren't left-wing. Rapa Nui is swingy, the 2 Aymara majority communities always give astronomic margins for the right and Mapuche vote the same as the rest of farmers (and Araucanía is the most right wing region of the country). Parties couldn't even run for the indigenous seats! You clearly know nothing about this election or Chile, so stop pulling things out of your ass.

The right won only the Kawéskar seat because they never have bothered to organize between indigenous people and thought they could get seats just by spamming ads on social media. But the other ones aren't militantly nor consistently left wing

[kaoras]

It's ok, sorry for being aggressive.

[kaoras]

Matthei OUT of the UDI/Chile Vamos primary.

The opposition won control of the Providencia Council (6/10), so if she renounces, she would be replaced by an opposition mayor.

[kaoras]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1394425420188114945

She didn't drop out. She just said that technically she wasn't a candidate yet.

[kaoras]

Does anyone know about newly elected Coquimbo mayor Alí Manoucheri?

He is an ex-football player from the Coquimbo Unido team. He supported Approve in the plebiscite and the 2019 protests. He won in an outsider platform.

[kaoras]

Someone who may be dropping out for real is Ximena Rincón, up until now the definitive DC candidate. Not 100% sure what’s the deal with that because I don’t think she/her team have been very clear, but DC might replace her (with Yasna Provoste on the basis of one poll?).

Totally on par for the course for Chilean Politics. One of the many reasons they have fallen so low. Also is a Cadem poll, they projected 56 seats for Chile Vamos!

[kaoras]

Someone who may be dropping out for real is Ximena Rincón, up until now the definitive DC candidate. Not 100% sure what’s the deal with that because I don’t think she/her team have been very clear, but DC might replace her (with Yasna Provoste on the basis of one poll?).

Totally on par for the course for Chilean Politics. One of the many reasons they have fallen so low. Also is a Cadem poll, they projected 56 seats for Chile Vamos!

Surely she can't be that bad. What's the worst thing she could've done?

*googles name* *starts reading wikipedia article*

... oh.

Provoste? Ah, she actually isn't bad. Impeachments in Chile are basically no-confidence votes on the government, and her impeachment was a special kind of BS. Christian Democrats seem to have dialed back and apparently still support Rincon, but we'll see. But yeah, basically all of chilean politics dance around what polls say, even though they are almost never right.

[kaoras]

Narváez appears to be leaning towards a joint primary with the FA and PC. Would that in effect be the Opposition Primary(TM) (minus Jiles), given that none of the other ex-Concertación candidates or parties seem really relevant?

Narvaez would certainly lose that primary but honestly, she and most of the PS base would prefer to be in that alliance than with the rotten corpse of the ex Concertación. The thing is that Unidad Constituyente results were so bad that there is a feeling that is worthless making a primary where no one would vote, especially compared with the primary that includes Jadue. I think that everything is up in the air right now, I don't feel confident in predicting anything.

Speaking more broadly, it wouldn't shock me that the socialist directive decided to turn to FA+PC as a basic survival measure, but it isn't that likely either. A move like that would cause a lot of internal tension within PS and FA (Because PS still has plenty of 3rd wayers and FA still has plenty of ideological purists).

[kaoras]

Oh my God, Provoste just said no in rather expectacular fashion:

https://mobile.twitter.com/CNNChile/status/1394781222375731205
"The DC or, rather, some of its leaders, continues to bet on the denial of the facts, to hide its failure in alleged candidacies that do not exist"

“This way of acting reflects an irresponsibility, for which I am not available. It only seems a lack of respect to me (…) I am not a candidate ”

[kaoras]

PS seems ready to ditch the DC (and possibly the rest of UC) in rather spectacular fashion to join FA-PC. Everything is still up in the air though.

Also, Pablo Vidal, Liberal Party candidate, drops out and endorses Paula Narvaez (lol).

[kaoras]

https://twitter.com/americaelige/status/1395064360503021574?s=21

Good ol' Activa. In their next poll at the end of the month, Lavin will crash 10 points, and then will go up again. They must have like 2 parallel panels

[kaoras]

Heraldo Muñoz is OUT. PC-FA don't want the primary to imply a parliamentary pact.

[kaoras]

Rincón is OUT, maybe in favor of Provoste? I don't even know what is happening anymore jajaja.

[kaoras]

So talking with some Chilean travelers has led me to “discover” that the PCCh is a “social democratic” party. Now I’d like to believe with my first impressions that everyone talks with good faith, so what are they talking about exactly? What in official campaign literature or the party platform are they on about?

Well, what do you mean by social democracy? They are in favour of public ownership of natural resources, basic services and want the constitution to establish social use of property. They don't openly call for writing in the constitution that Chile is a socialist country but that would be pragmatism more than anything. You need 2/3 for adding something to the constitution. PC is really pragmatic and usually isn't a fan waving their flag aimlessly for the sake of it (unless is foreign policy...), they always try to achieve real change step by step.

I think their regular platforms are more radical and explicit regarding capitalism but I haven't been able to found them.

[kaoras]

Yes, but given the left-wing nature of PS compared to other Latin American parties like PT, I’m interested in hearing some reasons as to what makes the PCCh to be crypto socdems

I wouldn't say that PS is more left-wing than PT. I think they are genuinely social democratic and as I defended many times, Bachelet was the only one who tried (and succeeded to some extent) to enact a left agenda. But PS has a lot of third wayers and scandals and they also aren't particularly radical.

[kaoras]

Okay, now the dust has settled a little bit:

Yasna Provoste said she won't run in any primary, but left the door open to running directly in the first round.

Is basically a certainty that PS, FA, and PC will do a primary together. This may or may not include a common parliamentary list and a common program. No one is sure but Provoste announcement makes it clear that there will be some kind of deal between them (and maybe PPD?, lol)

I think Provoste is almost sure to run if Jadue wins the United Left™ primary, which, I don't think is a bad strategy at all?

We will know the details in a few hours. But one thing is clear: The Concertación is dead, good riddance!

[kaoras]

Okay, now the dust has settled a little bit:

Yasna Provoste said she won't run in any primary, but left the door open to running directly in the first round.

Is basically a certainty that PS, FA, and PC will do a primary together. This may or may not include a common parliamentary list and a common program. No one is sure but Provoste announcement makes it clear that there will be some kind of deal between them (and maybe PPD?, lol)

I think Provoste is almost sure to run if Jadue wins the United Left™ primary, which, I don't think is a bad strategy at all?

We will know the details in a few hours. But one thing is clear: The Concertación is dead, good riddance!

Yeah, about this. Apparently PC and FA didn't want PPD and the Liberal Party, so PS is left alone. What a disaster.

[kaoras]

So *is* there gonna be a DC candidate at all?

Probably Provoste later in the year

[kaoras]

Poll for the Metropolitan Region Gubernatorial election

Karina Oliva (FA): 32,5%
Cluadio Orrego (DC): 21,7%

Likely Voters:

Karina Oliva: 49,5%
Claudio Orrego: 29,3%

Oliva would get 60% of left-wingers (Orrego barely 23), Orrego just 44,7% of right-wingers. The left is also much more likely to vote (79%) than the right (49%)

[kaoras]

Will the governor runoffs have an effect on the FA-PC primary?

Is more likely to influence Unidad Constituyente. In theory both PS and DC support Orrego, but if Orrego is defeated PS will be less likely to withdraw Narváez candidacy in favor of Provoste, and make a "conventional" primary more likely.

[kaoras]

Some political updates:

New presidential polls have come out after all of the drama. Jadue and Lavin still lead and Jiles is dramatically down in favour of Provoste and Sichel. Narvaez still dead in the water (I don't see how she survives until even a conventional primary unless DC does really badly in governors and PS still resists somehow)

PS and the rest of UC are kinda trying to act as if nothing happened but PS blames PC for the veto. Sadly for them, they may have to sink with that ship.

[kaoras]

This is something that I made: Most voted list for constituent elections (Decide Chile has his maps according individual candidate)

Blue: Vamos por Chile
Orange: Lista del Apruebo
Red: Apruebo dignidad
Pink: Lista del Pueblo
Purple: Independientes por una Nueva Constitución/No Neutrales
Light Green: Independent Regional List
Dark Green: Partido Ecologista Verde
Light Blue: Ciudadanos Cristianos
Crimson: Unión Patriotica
 

Quick analysis: You can see Limarí, Petorca and Aconcagua river valleys, some exact provincial divisions like Chiloé and Palena, and authentic relics from the past like Arauco gulf coal basin. Also, have fun spotting the 2 comunas that voted for UPA! (and the Evangelical one)

I'm trying to do a write-up of analysis for each region of the country, but I don't want to start posting them until I finish.

[kaoras]

Next Sunday there is the second round of the gubernatorial elections in 13 regions. I will just give a quick preview since I think predicting them is impossible because of the probable low turnout.

Arica y Parinacota:Enrique Lee (IND-Chile Vamos) will face Jorge Diaz (DC-Unidad Constituyente)
Tarapacá: The right got locked out of this (former?) stronghold. José Miguel Carvajal (Comunes-FA) vs Marco Pérez (DC-UC)
Antogafasta: Ricardo Díaz (Ind_PRO-UC) almost avoided a runoff, but will face Marco Díaz (not related) from RN-Chile Vamos.
Atacama: This leftist stronghold shut out the right at almost all levels. The fight is between Carlos Pezo (ind_DC-UC) vs former Bachelet's intendente Miguel Vargas (ex-PS)
Coquimbo: Another leftist hotbed, it was UC who got locked out. Ecologist party candidate Krist Naranjo vs Marco Sulantay (UDI-Chile Vamos)

Metropolitana de Santiago: The contest in everyone's watch, the right infamously got fourth place here. Former intendente Claudio Orrego (DC-UC) will face Karina Oliva (Comunes-FA). Oliva leads widely in the only poll, but has made a series of blunders in recent days. The right will not endorse anyone, nor the ecologists (third place with 15%). PH candidate and Pamela Jiles husband Pablo Maltés (10%) endorsed Oliva, who controversially accepted the endorsement.

O'Higgins: Good old UC vs Chile Vamos fight. Pablo Silva (PS) vs Eduardo Cornejo (UDI)
Maule: Another Right lockout in the fourth largest and most rural region, Cristina Bravo (DC-UC) vs centrist independent (ex-Ciudadanos) Francisco Pulgar, who is being investigated for rape.
Ñuble: The newest region of the country, Oscar Crisóstomo (PS-UC) vs Jezer Sepúlveda (UDI-Chile Vamos)
Bio Bio: Former Intendente, ex-DC (ind) Rodrigo Díaz will face Flor Weisse (UDI-CV) in the third largest region of the country
Araucanía: In this rightist stronghold Eugenio Tuma (PPD-UC) faces Luciano Rivas (ind-EVOPOLI-Chile Vamos)
Los Ríos:My home region and ironically the one where the right has more chances. María José Gatica (RN) faces former regional councilor Luis Cuvertino (PS)
Los Lagos:Patricio Vallespín (DC-UC) vs Ricardo Kuchel (RN-Chile Vamos)

In the first round, the only regions where leftist candidates didn't win like 60-70% of the vote were Los Ríos and Maule (where ironically the right didn't pass to the runoff), but with turnout low, I don't feel confident in predicting anything.