Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Red Velvet]

Congratulations Chile!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Matthei OUT of the UDI/Chile Vamos primary.

[kaoras]

Matthei OUT of the UDI/Chile Vamos primary.

The opposition won control of the Providencia Council (6/10), so if she renounces, she would be replaced by an opposition mayor.

[H. Ross Peron]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1394425420188114945

[kaoras]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1394425420188114945

She didn't drop out. She just said that technically she wasn't a candidate yet.

[PSOL]

Does anyone know about newly elected Coquimbo mayor Alí Manoucheri?

[kaoras]

Does anyone know about newly elected Coquimbo mayor Alí Manoucheri?

He is an ex-football player from the Coquimbo Unido team. He supported Approve in the plebiscite and the 2019 protests. He won in an outsider platform.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Someone who may be dropping out for real is Ximena Rincón, up until now the definitive DC candidate. Not 100% sure what’s the deal with that because I don’t think she/her team have been very clear, but DC might replace her (with Yasna Provoste on the basis of one poll?).

[kaoras]

Someone who may be dropping out for real is Ximena Rincón, up until now the definitive DC candidate. Not 100% sure what’s the deal with that because I don’t think she/her team have been very clear, but DC might replace her (with Yasna Provoste on the basis of one poll?).

Totally on par for the course for Chilean Politics. One of the many reasons they have fallen so low. Also is a Cadem poll, they projected 56 seats for Chile Vamos!

[Estrella]

Someone who may be dropping out for real is Ximena Rincón, up until now the definitive DC candidate. Not 100% sure what’s the deal with that because I don’t think she/her team have been very clear, but DC might replace her (with Yasna Provoste on the basis of one poll?).

Totally on par for the course for Chilean Politics. One of the many reasons they have fallen so low. Also is a Cadem poll, they projected 56 seats for Chile Vamos!

Surely she can't be that bad. What's the worst thing she could've done?

*googles name* *starts reading wikipedia article*

... oh.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

(Although of course it’s not like anyone from DC is going to be president at this rate.)

[kaoras]

Someone who may be dropping out for real is Ximena Rincón, up until now the definitive DC candidate. Not 100% sure what’s the deal with that because I don’t think she/her team have been very clear, but DC might replace her (with Yasna Provoste on the basis of one poll?).

Totally on par for the course for Chilean Politics. One of the many reasons they have fallen so low. Also is a Cadem poll, they projected 56 seats for Chile Vamos!

Surely she can't be that bad. What's the worst thing she could've done?

*googles name* *starts reading wikipedia article*

... oh.

Provoste? Ah, she actually isn't bad. Impeachments in Chile are basically no-confidence votes on the government, and her impeachment was a special kind of BS. Christian Democrats seem to have dialed back and apparently still support Rincon, but we'll see. But yeah, basically all of chilean politics dance around what polls say, even though they are almost never right.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Narváez appears to be leaning towards a joint primary with the FA and PC. Would that in effect be the Opposition Primary(TM) (minus Jiles), given that none of the other ex-Concertación candidates or parties seem really relevant?

[kaoras]

Narváez appears to be leaning towards a joint primary with the FA and PC. Would that in effect be the Opposition Primary(TM) (minus Jiles), given that none of the other ex-Concertación candidates or parties seem really relevant?

Narvaez would certainly lose that primary but honestly, she and most of the PS base would prefer to be in that alliance than with the rotten corpse of the ex Concertación. The thing is that Unidad Constituyente results were so bad that there is a feeling that is worthless making a primary where no one would vote, especially compared with the primary that includes Jadue. I think that everything is up in the air right now, I don't feel confident in predicting anything.

Speaking more broadly, it wouldn't shock me that the socialist directive decided to turn to FA+PC as a basic survival measure, but it isn't that likely either. A move like that would cause a lot of internal tension within PS and FA (Because PS still has plenty of 3rd wayers and FA still has plenty of ideological purists).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Update: Marcelo Díaz (FA rando, former PS guy) is OUT and endorsing Boric.

[seb_pard]

Yasna Provoste's rise was expected due to her role as President of the Senate (by uniting the opposition and willing to cooperate with the government on help to people in economic distress-majority of population-). I think she is a really good politician and in a sea of zombies some are desperate to pick whoever has high approval (particularly now due to Jiles) but honestly, Sunday's results changed everything.

Her impeachment was just crap, as she was the collateral damage of the first fracture within the Concertation (not saying she wasn't responsible, as she was Education Minister, but the problem started long before her arrival). If you want to read about it, I recommend the following twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/HuracanPop/status/1388669088873000962

[seb_pard]

Interesting article from La Tercera about the new Constitutional Convention members. The newspaper sent some questions to all candidates before the election and received the answers from 120 elected ones (from 155):

https://www.latercera.com/investigacion-y-datos/asi-piensa-la-nueva-convencion/

Some takeaways:
-Average age: 45 (from 20 to 81); 49 from municipal schools, 43 from subsidized, 43 from private schools (very few from elite private schools); 49 lawyers, 19 teachers
-Almost 90% in favor of decreasing President powers (mix of lower attributions and for a semi-presidential regime)
-51% in favor of unicameral legislative branch, 31% in favor of one branch having political representation and the other having the territorial one
-More than 60% in favor of reforming the Constitutional Court, 31% in favor of eliminating it
-60% in favor of keeping supermajorities for some items in the parliament
-87% support Central Bank independence, although 49% support some reform (maybe dual mandate like the Fed?)
-92% support adding the right to water access in the constitution, 69% adding the right to housing (through active state rol) and more than 70% support adding right to clean energy, although through different means
-70% support a pluri-national state, while 29% support recognizing indigenous groups in the constitution but not a pluri-national state
-99% in favor of further decentralization, although 58% is against a federal republic
-73% in favor of establishing full equality between men and women (including wage equality)

[seb_pard]

Ximena Rincon willing to step down if Yasna Provoste decides to participate in the Unidad Constituyente primary

https://twitter.com/T13/status/1394771706946916353



https://twitter.com/T13/status/1394777764096614402

[kaoras]

Oh my God, Provoste just said no in rather expectacular fashion:

https://mobile.twitter.com/CNNChile/status/1394781222375731205
"The DC or, rather, some of its leaders, continues to bet on the denial of the facts, to hide its failure in alleged candidacies that do not exist"

“This way of acting reflects an irresponsibility, for which I am not available. It only seems a lack of respect to me (…) I am not a candidate ”

[seb_pard]

Best response to that nonsense. They are in a hole.

[kaoras]

PS seems ready to ditch the DC (and possibly the rest of UC) in rather spectacular fashion to join FA-PC. Everything is still up in the air though.

Also, Pablo Vidal, Liberal Party candidate, drops out and endorses Paula Narvaez (lol).

[seb_pard]

https://twitter.com/americaelige/status/1395064360503021574?s=21

[kaoras]

https://twitter.com/americaelige/status/1395064360503021574?s=21

Good ol' Activa. In their next poll at the end of the month, Lavin will crash 10 points, and then will go up again. They must have like 2 parallel panels

[kaoras]

Heraldo Muñoz is OUT. PC-FA don't want the primary to imply a parliamentary pact.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

RIP Concertación.