2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

Nevada coming TONIGHT

https://twitter.com/emmersbrown/status/1324094738337878018

[wbrocks67]

I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.

What are you talking about?  Biden is outperforming Hillary in the NPV.

Barely, and it's unclear he will get the gigantic CA late ballot boost that Clinton got because CA is currently tightening with each update.  Trump's coalition is much less efficient this time.  Would be wild if Biden wins PA or AZ by more than 2.

With "every update"? CA has barely counted any significant votes since last night

[wbrocks67]

Even with latest drop from Wayne, still only at 85%. Still have more votes to go there.

[wbrocks67]

Biden ahead by nearly 65K in Michigan now.

Biden 2,680,665 (49.8%)
Trump 2,616,170 (48.6%)

Peters up by 9K now, 49.14% to 48.97%.

Bear in mind that for Peters, the NYT is still including those almost-certainly wrong numbers in Antrim County.  This could swing things by a few thousand votes (though I hesitantly expect Peters to win here by the slimmest of margins). 

NYT reporting that Wayne still has 15% out. And Kalamazoo 20%.

[wbrocks67]

The mail in ballots in PA are very fluid. Counties are still processing new ballots each day - Montco 503K received this morning - now it's 508K. Now they are back up 50K ballots still to count.

https://electionresults-montcopa.hub.arcgis.com/

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1324098012172439552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

[wbrocks67]

Biden nearly at 50% in Michigan. +1.3% lead now.

Biden 2,684,200 (49.9%)
Trump 2,617,062 (48.6%)

Peters up 0.21% on James, with a +11K lead.

[wbrocks67]

When the hell is GA supposed to keep counting?

[wbrocks67]

ABC projects a Dem win in GA-06.

Looks like GA-07 will flip easily too

[wbrocks67]

Trump down to +66K in GA. Was just +75K.

Trump 2,400,388 (50.1%)
Biden 2,334,333 (48.7%)

[wbrocks67]

Georgia was saying they want to dump most of the entire rest of the bucket tonight after midnight, and there was 149K at that point, so if Biden is leading, it's probably safe enough to call.

Also, I'm not saying Biden will win AZ, though the vote dump looked fine for him, b/c Trump would have to get that margin every time, even with a Pima dump - but I like how people here think they know better than AP and Fox. Not saying they're infallible but telling Fox and AP what to do like you have better insights to resources than they do is... something

[wbrocks67]

Can someone give me a good estimate on how likely Blue Georgia is looking?

Good with Fulton missing a chunk and Augusta and Savannah missing over 10%. The margin is already at Biden -30K before all that.

If you had to guess, how much votes would you say Biden wins or loses by?

I'll say he wins by 20K or bit under.

There's atleast 100k right now, so if Biden wins them 70/30 like he's been doing he would net 70k, Trump 30k, so I'd say Biden may be closer to like a 30/40K win lead.

[wbrocks67]

According to the Philadelphia county website, turnout was 51% and they’ve received a total of 233583
Mail votes with 97% counted.

https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/VoterTurnoutDetails.aspx?&cat=PREC

There 400K+ mail votes requested in PA, so that means there are many more left. 350K were returned by the end of Michael McDonald's updating

[wbrocks67]

I think its clear at this point that the AP and FOX called too early. They still could end up being correct, but this isn't a state you can be sure of at this point.

People need to stop acting like they know better here. I would assume AP and FOX have some data that we don't have.

[wbrocks67]

Do people realize that Biden is only down like 150K in PA right now and there is 120K+ left to count in Philly *alone*?

[wbrocks67]

DDHQ GA:

Trump 2,431,724 (49.57%)
Biden 2,413,184 (49.20%)

Biden now down only 18K. There were reports that 60K+ were still out in GA.

Perdue 2,432,536 (50.03%)
Ossoff 2,317,211 (47.66%)

It looks quite likely that Perdue/Ossoff goes to a runoff

[wbrocks67]

NOW LOOK, HERE'S THE DEAL:


90.375 votes left to count in Georgia. Some were counted, but these were left when the vote difference sat at around 25k. Let's give Trump 35% of the vote, Biden 65% of it.

65% of 90.375 = 58.743 votes
90.375 - 58.743 = 30.632 votes.
58.743 - 30.632 = 28.111 votes.

Is it likely? No
Is it still possible? DEFINITELY.

If there are 90K votes left in GA with Biden only down 18K then I would say it is likely Biden passes Trump.

[wbrocks67]

As of last night at 9:15PM, this is how many mail ballots remain. Not sure how many have counted overnight though.

Montco's website says they are finished with ballots that they received thru Election Day, but that there are more (3K at least) that are still outstanding

Philadelphia: 120K
York: 77K
Allegheny: 46K
Bucks: 43K
Chester: 42K
Lehigh: 39K
Erie: 31K
Butler: 33K
Cumberland: 32K
Beaver: 25K
Luzerne: 20K
Lancaster: 19K
Delaware: 18K

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

[wbrocks67]

What does your algorithm say when you plug in "450,000 ballots remaining" and Biden trailing by around 154,000 for PA?

67.1%

That is nearly in the too-hard basket.

Biden has been winning mail-ins by about at least 75%

[wbrocks67]

For reference: Biden is at about 458K in Philly right now. Hillary got 584K in 2016, so there is a LOT left to count in Philly.

[wbrocks67]

However, this is from Boockvar herself last night at 10PM. DOS website also had about this amount at 9pm last night. There has been some overnight counting, but it looks like there has only been a ~150K difference from 9/10pm last night to now. (6.2m last night, 6.35m right now)

So that would mean we have about ~600K left

https://twitter.com/MikeDelMoro/status/1324188579162132480

[wbrocks67]

Also, people may have missed it, but Biden's lead is nearly up to 3% in Michigan. It appears Trump's team was correct that the state was drifting from them.

Joe Biden 2,788,600 (50.6%)
Donald Trump 2,640,185 (47.9%)

[wbrocks67]

However, this is from Boockvar herself last night at 10PM. DOS website also had about this amount at 9pm last night. There has been some overnight counting, but it looks like there has only been a ~150K difference from 9/10pm last night to now. (6.2m last night, 6.35m right now)

So that would mean we have about ~600K left

https://twitter.com/MikeDelMoro/status/1324188579162132480

It seems pretty clear that as of a few hours ago there were approximately 475k mail-in ballots left to count in Pennsylvania, but is it possible that the remainder of that 600K was counted but not reported?

That's probably it. They might just do one giant dump for Biden.

Yep, this is possible. I don't think Philly has done a dump since last night, so it may be that things are getting "counted" but not added to the totals yet. There are many counties like Lehigh and Erie that are being VERY slow in adding their mail ballots to the totals too.

[wbrocks67]

I'm preparing myself for the worst-case scenario which is Biden down by about 150k with about 450k left to count, but I'm not understanding how everyone could've "lost" (for lack of a better word) those couple hundred thousand votes that never seemed to get reported. Was it a mistake, or were they not reporting remaining vote totals accurately as they released results?

Well who was reporting the 450K? It's possible people didn't have the correct figures. I'm going directly off of the DOS website/Boockvar who had it about 750K left at 10pm last night. The figure was 6.2M counted in PA at that point, and now it's 6.35M, so that would mean 600K left have to be *counted* as of yet it would appear. But it's possible that many of them have been *processed* but not *counted* so maybe thats where people are getting other totals from

Either way, Philly has *at least* 120K outstanding and that would nearly narrow the margin alone for Biden, since they're going like 90-10 for him.

[wbrocks67]

If Biden wins Michigan by 3% or higher, will Debbie Dingell take back her stupid comments on how Dems have flopped and failed and 'need to get better talking to working class men and women'?