2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[wbrocks67]

You love to see all of the increases in SEPA.

https://twitter.com/Elaijuh/status/1425873772394000384

[wbrocks67]

Given that redistricting is divided this time in PA between the parties... and that Dem areas increased in population and GOP areas lost population.  Shouldn't we expect Dems to at least maintain their districts in 2022 or possibly even gain 1?  Am I missing something here?

The current map is very favorable to Dems plus you have Matt Cartwright in a district that has zoomed to the right since he was elected. The state has to lose a district which means either a Dem district is eliminated or some of the remaining Dem districts have to take up more Republican territory which could endanger incumbents.

It's really not. It's literally a 9-9 map. If it was favorable to Dems it'd be 10-8.

Not sure how you get that a Dem district would be eliminated when all of the areas that lost population were GOP areas.

[wbrocks67]

Is it possible to shore up Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright?

In theory I'd love if PA-01 could become bluer but the unfortunate fact is that it's already lean blue but Fitz still has a hold on it.

[wbrocks67]

Here's my attempt to make a fair as possible PA map. It's 10 Trump - 7 Clinton composition. I'm pretty confidant that Biden won PA-1 in 2020. So if one day DRA adds the 2020 prez data, it would become a 9R - 8D map. No city/town is split except for Philly.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/03a2ccc7-f995-4b96-a54b-68aefbdbe42e

A 9R-8D map is not fair though.

I'm confused as to how Dems get screwed in this when all of their areas had population growth and nearly every R area had population loss? Rs should be losing a district, not Ds.

[wbrocks67]

When are we expecting any official draft maps?

[wbrocks67]

Both seem way more neutral than what we have now, if I'm not mistaken. Though that's a low bar considering both right now are extreme GOP gerrymanders

[wbrocks67]

I take back what I said - the new House map seems very fair (102-101 Biden) but the new state senate map seems more trash than what I originally thought.

Realized that my home district in Montco, currently with Katie Muth (D) is going from 42-40 R edge to a 47-36 R edge which is ... an incredibly jarring change. Especially for a Montco district which continues to trend left (and my particular township does as well)

[wbrocks67]

I take back what I said - the new House map seems very fair (102-101 Biden) but the new state senate map seems more trash than what I originally thought.

Realized that my home district in Montco, currently with Katie Muth (D) is going from 42-40 R edge to a 47-36 R edge which is ... an incredibly jarring change. Especially for a Montco district which continues to trend left (and my particular township does as well)

I thought Muth lost her portion of Berks in this map? Anyway it looks like Biden got 57% of the vote in her new district, where Muth should be able to win even in 2022.

Are you sure? I used this - https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2021/12/pennsylvania-redistricting-house-senate-districts-lookup-tool/

It says Current District 44 (Muth, D) was by registration: 42.64% R, 40.08% D, 17.28% Other

Then new proposed District 24 would be: 47.15% R, 36.20% D, 16.65% Other

I know we have a ton of ancestral Rs voting D in my area, but Biden getting 57% in the new district with an R+11 registration advantage would be pretty surprising. If that's somehow the case, then I'm not as worried about Muth losing I guess.

[wbrocks67]

I take back what I said - the new House map seems very fair (102-101 Biden) but the new state senate map seems more trash than what I originally thought.

Realized that my home district in Montco, currently with Katie Muth (D) is going from 42-40 R edge to a 47-36 R edge which is ... an incredibly jarring change. Especially for a Montco district which continues to trend left (and my particular township does as well)

I thought Muth lost her portion of Berks in this map? Anyway it looks like Biden got 57% of the vote in her new district, where Muth should be able to win even in 2022.

Are you sure? I used this - https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2021/12/pennsylvania-redistricting-house-senate-districts-lookup-tool/

It says Current District 44 (Muth, D) was by registration: 42.64% R, 40.08% D, 17.28% Other

Then new proposed District 24 would be: 47.15% R, 36.20% D, 16.65% Other

I know we have a ton of ancestral Rs voting D in my area, but Biden getting 57% in the new district with an R+11 registration advantage would be pretty surprising. If that's somehow the case, then I'm not as worried about Muth losing I guess.

Muth is still in the 44th district, which moved to the left. But apparently you now live in the 24th district, which was Republican-leaning previously but moved to the right.

That's what I'm saying - I think the lines being drawn for this are pretty terrible if somehow Muth is going from a R+2 district to an R+11 district despite the fact that Montco and many areas inside (especially in my area that is included in this new district) are trending left.

[wbrocks67]

PA house definitely looks like a Dem gerry, but a very smooth one. Lancaster, State College and Reading all gain a lean/solid D seat and Harrisburg gains two.

PA house map is literally 102-101 Biden-Trump. That ain't a gerrymander.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the Supreme Court will be the blockade either way. It's going to them with a special master, just like 2018

[wbrocks67]

Glad to see the special master is coming back. The GOP-led Commonwealth Court should not even bother.

[wbrocks67]

This is the best shot Democrats have had at retaking the state legislature in years, btw.

Yep, I'll take it. For a while now the maps have been total R gerrymanders so this is way better than what I was expecting tbh

[wbrocks67]

Based PA Supreme Court.

Sucks that it could've been 6-1 if McLaughlin didn't lose by <1% in November

[wbrocks67]

Does someone have Bidne/Trump breakdowns for each?

Moving Norristown and Bridgeport out of PA-4 is .... a choice. Not sure how you have a Montco-based seat without those two cities.

[wbrocks67]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

[wbrocks67]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

[wbrocks67]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

That was always agreed upon since the begining of this cycle. The Democratic seats still needed to pick up 300k in population of blood red territory. Considering 3/4 swing seats for Democrats got shored up despite that, that's a swell courtmander they got.

It's a Biden 9-8 map. That's not a mander of any kind.

[wbrocks67]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

That was always agreed upon since the begining of this cycle. The Democratic seats still needed to pick up 300k in population of blood red territory. Considering 3/4 swing seats for Democrats got shored up despite that, that's a swell courtmander they got.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::48bc041f-ff25-42bc-a74d-d90f325dde0e

Look at Palandios map. Democrats gain like 14 points from PA17 moving it from somewhere around Trump +8 to Biden +6. They gain like 10 points for PA06 with the tri chop of Berks to drown it out with Montgomery and Chester. . That's a whole 25 points worth gained in swing districts .

It's a neutral map in wbrock67's alternate reality where Biden actually won PA by 9.

Huh? What the f**k are you actually talking about? Biden won Pennsylvania. It's a 9-8 Biden map. Biden won PA slightly. The map has a slight Biden won edge. How is that objectionable? This is literally what a fair map looks like. If Trump won PA slightly, then you'd expect it to be a 9-8 Trump map. How are people actually having an issue with this?!

[wbrocks67]

Some of you are getting way too in the weeds. A fair map is one that reflects partisanship of the state. Doesn't matter how it got there. At the end of the day a Biden 9-8 map that includes a few very competitive districts IS a fair map. If anything, you could even argue that it favors Rs a bit since even though Biden won some of those districts, they are more R by PVI

[wbrocks67]

Some of you are getting way too in the weeds. A fair map is one that reflects partisanship of the state. Doesn't matter how it got there. At the end of the day a Biden 9-8 map that includes a few very competitive districts IS a fair map. If anything, you could even argue that it favors Rs a bit since even though Biden won some of those districts, they are more R by PVI

Nope. It literally does not matter whether it reflects the partisanship of the state. A fair map is one that reflect the communities of interest of the state. We have a fundamental definitional disagreement of what a fair map is.

So if you have a state that has a huge city and smaller communities, but then only 1 district for that city and then say, 3-4 districts for those smaller communities, a map that is 3-1 or 4-1 for a state that could be equal in partisanship is fair? That makes no sense.