2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Oryxslayer]

Solid map but I feel like there should be a district wholly within Allegheny county.

That would probably mean making PA-17 a Trump seat.

No it wouldn't, not with places like New Kensington right there. There's quite a lot of versions that Biden won back in this thread, many that didn't cut Pittsburgh. But such a seat would more likely than not be to the right of the nation, whereas this orientation or cutting Pitt would make it to the left of the 2020 Pres vote.

[Horus]

Solid map but I feel like there should be a district wholly within Allegheny county.

That would probably mean making PA-17 a Trump seat.

Possibly, and from a partisanship standpoint I'm more than fine with it, just looks funny when superimposed over the counties.

[Boss_Rahm]

Is there a DRA link for this map? Thanks.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c2d737ae-ab94-4842-a465-e3f331508082
Here it is, though it was also in the tweet on the last page.

Some of the deviations seem quite high. I guess 0 deviation wasn't a criteria here?

Here's the actual map including precinct splits:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::86ccc0c3-b1ae-4209-b1c2-15dfd28b4da8

[kwabbit]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

That was always agreed upon since the begining of this cycle. The Democratic seats still needed to pick up 300k in population of blood red territory. Considering 3/4 swing seats for Democrats got shored up despite that, that's a swell courtmander they got.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::48bc041f-ff25-42bc-a74d-d90f325dde0e

Look at Palandios map. Democrats gain like 14 points from PA17 moving it from somewhere around Trump +8 to Biden +6. They gain like 10 points for PA06 with the tri chop of Berks to drown it out with Montgomery and Chester. . That's a whole 25 points worth gained in swing districts .

It's a neutral map in wbrock67's alternate reality where Biden actually won PA by 9.

[Skill and Chance]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

That was always agreed upon since the begining of this cycle. The Democratic seats still needed to pick up 300k in population of blood red territory. Considering 3/4 swing seats for Democrats got shored up despite that, that's a swell courtmander they got.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::48bc041f-ff25-42bc-a74d-d90f325dde0e

Look at Palandios map. Democrats gain like 14 points from PA17 moving it from somewhere around Trump +8 to Biden +6. They gain like 10 points for PA06 with the tri chop of Berks to drown it out with Montgomery and Chester. . That's a whole 25 points worth gained in swing districts .

It's a neutral map in wbrock67's alternate reality where Biden actually won PA by 9.

Still, 9 Biden seats to 8 Trump seats in a Biden +1 state isn't exactly objectionable to me?  This isn't much like the NC shenanigans. 

[lfromnj]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

That was always agreed upon since the begining of this cycle. The Democratic seats still needed to pick up 300k in population of blood red territory. Considering 3/4 swing seats for Democrats got shored up despite that, that's a swell courtmander they got.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::48bc041f-ff25-42bc-a74d-d90f325dde0e

Look at Palandios map. Democrats gain like 14 points from PA17 moving it from somewhere around Trump +8 to Biden +6. They gain like 10 points for PA06 with the tri chop of Berks to drown it out with Montgomery and Chester. . That's a whole 25 points worth gained in swing districts .

It's a neutral map in wbrock67's alternate reality where Biden actually won PA by 9.

Still, 9 Biden seats to 8 Trump seats in a Biden +1 state isn't exactly objectionable to me?  This isn't much like the NC shenanigans. 

?

What's the difference between the 2. The sandhills is weird in NC I guess and some rurals are added to the Greensboro district. The latter one doesn't really matter and something has to be weird in Eastern NC as long discussed. Other than that don't see whats the difference between Pittsburgh vs Charlotte/Raleigh.

[Brittain33]

Still, 9 Biden seats to 8 Trump seats in a Biden +1 state isn't exactly objectionable to me?  This isn't much like the NC shenanigans. 

My theory is based on the fact that for the last 20 years, the House map overall has had a small but significant Republican bias, with some states having large Republican biases (Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Ohio) standing out as really problematic. People came to consider a small Republican bias the natural order of things, a compromise everyone should accept, while acknowledging that Texas, the pre-reform PA map, etc. could be called gerrymandering.

What this means is that maps that mirror the state’s political tint or even have a small Democratic edge are seen as outrageous and offensive, the equivalent of the Texas gerrymander which is much more extreme. It’s because both are equidistant from what Republicans consider the natural, fair outcome - a moderate Republican advantage.

[lfromnj]

Still, 9 Biden seats to 8 Trump seats in a Biden +1 state isn't exactly objectionable to me?  This isn't much like the NC shenanigans.  

My theory is based on the fact that for the last 20 years, the House map overall has had a small but significant Republican bias, with some states having large Republican biases (Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Ohio) standing out as really problematic. People came to consider a small Republican bias the natural order of things, a compromise everyone should accept, while acknowledging that Texas, the pre-reform PA map, etc. could be called gerrymandering.

What this means is that maps that mirror the state’s political tint or even have a small Democratic edge are seen as outrageous and offensive, the equivalent of the Texas gerrymander which is much more extreme. It’s because both are equidistant from what Republicans consider the natural, fair outcome - a moderate Republican advantage.

Alabama is weird as previously discsussed. a Neutral map would have been 2 swing seats in Birgmingham and the black belt in all likelyhood.

Georgia's 2010 map is pretty fair. I don't see any major issue other than GA07 going leaping northward. GA 11th scooping in Atlanta is sorta bad but if GA 6th took northern Atlanta it wouldn't change its partisanship much.

GA-12 is R favorable although the issue with 2010 is that South Georgia is like 4.2 districts so any map would be weird.

[patzer]

Is there a DRA link for this map? Thanks.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c2d737ae-ab94-4842-a465-e3f331508082
Here it is, though it was also in the tweet on the last page.

Some of the deviations seem quite high. I guess 0 deviation wasn't a criteria here?

Here's the actual map including precinct splits:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::86ccc0c3-b1ae-4209-b1c2-15dfd28b4da8

So they've given the 9th an arm heading into the 8th, to just pick up Dan Meuser's home and avoid him having to change residence again. His hometown of Dallas is literally split between two congressional districts despite only having 2800 people.

Wouldn't have expected a court to do that- but I guess they didn't draw the map, merely picked someone else's. Feels like Meuser's house should naturally have been in the 8th; had they done that and put Keller's home in the 9th then there wouldn't have been any incumbent R primary fights.

[Lambsbread]

Summer Lee drawn out of PA17:

https://twitter.com/stephenj_caruso/status/1496591415513604096?s=21

[Boss_Rahm]

Summer Lee drawn out of PA17:

https://twitter.com/stephenj_caruso/status/1496591415513604096?s=21

She's still running for the Pittsburgh district, there's no residency requirement for Congressional races.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Summer Lee drawn out of PA17:

https://twitter.com/stephenj_caruso/status/1496591415513604096?s=21

She's still running for the Pittsburgh district, there's no residency requirement for Congressional races.

I doubt it was intentional, seeing all the different groups this went through. Least I hope so

[TML]

Summer Lee drawn out of PA17:

https://twitter.com/stephenj_caruso/status/1496591415513604096?s=21

Remember that Conor Lamb didn't reside within PA-18 as it existed back when he first ran for that seat in early 2018, so this isn't anything unprecedented.

[Skill and Chance]

Summer Lee drawn out of PA17:

https://twitter.com/stephenj_caruso/status/1496591415513604096?s=21

Remember that Conor Lamb didn't reside within PA-18 as it existed back when he first ran for that seat in early 2018, so this isn't anything unprecedented.

Yeah, this isn't a huge deal.  It becomes more of an issue if they're moving to an entirely different metro area to run in a seat that leans toward their party.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The reason why some of ya'll getting moderately large deviations is prolly because you are using the adjusted data for population, not just the raw 2020 data which the map was clearly drawn with.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Clinton actually holds the new 1rst and 17th (barely) in 2016. 7 is the only district that flips.

[Adam Griffin]

Solid map but I feel like there should be a district wholly within Allegheny county.

That would probably mean making PA-17 a Trump seat.

Pretty easy to avoid. Maybe not the most optimal split but these 2 both went to Biden by 12 points, respects the river, and no Republican in the available DRA sets have won either (closest was SEN-16, where McGinty still won the western district by 4.4 points).

https://davesredistricting.org/join/032247d3-d57f-42c5-b03f-aa5aa4c1add6

[wbrocks67]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

That was always agreed upon since the begining of this cycle. The Democratic seats still needed to pick up 300k in population of blood red territory. Considering 3/4 swing seats for Democrats got shored up despite that, that's a swell courtmander they got.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::48bc041f-ff25-42bc-a74d-d90f325dde0e

Look at Palandios map. Democrats gain like 14 points from PA17 moving it from somewhere around Trump +8 to Biden +6. They gain like 10 points for PA06 with the tri chop of Berks to drown it out with Montgomery and Chester. . That's a whole 25 points worth gained in swing districts .

It's a neutral map in wbrock67's alternate reality where Biden actually won PA by 9.

Huh? What the f**k are you actually talking about? Biden won Pennsylvania. It's a 9-8 Biden map. Biden won PA slightly. The map has a slight Biden won edge. How is that objectionable? This is literally what a fair map looks like. If Trump won PA slightly, then you'd expect it to be a 9-8 Trump map. How are people actually having an issue with this?!

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

That was always agreed upon since the begining of this cycle. The Democratic seats still needed to pick up 300k in population of blood red territory. Considering 3/4 swing seats for Democrats got shored up despite that, that's a swell courtmander they got.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::48bc041f-ff25-42bc-a74d-d90f325dde0e

Look at Palandios map. Democrats gain like 14 points from PA17 moving it from somewhere around Trump +8 to Biden +6. They gain like 10 points for PA06 with the tri chop of Berks to drown it out with Montgomery and Chester. . That's a whole 25 points worth gained in swing districts .

It's a neutral map in wbrock67's alternate reality where Biden actually won PA by 9.

Huh? What the f**k are you actually talking about? Biden won Pennsylvania. It's a 9-8 Biden map. Biden won PA slightly. The map has a slight Biden won edge. How is that objectionable? This is literally what a fair map looks like. If Trump won PA slightly, then you'd expect it to be a 9-8 Trump map. How are people actually having an issue with this?!

This is not what a fair map looks like because it gerrymanders to get Democrats to proportionality. Democrats are self-packed into Philly and Pittsburgh. A fair map would be 9-5-3, like this. https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::1aec4a7c-782d-4214-82ac-1a0e16a04cb7

[Nyvin]

This is not what a fair map looks like because it gerrymanders to get Democrats to proportionality. Democrats are self-packed into Philly and Pittsburgh. A fair map would be 9-5-3, like this. https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::1aec4a7c-782d-4214-82ac-1a0e16a04cb7

Only they really aren't all that self-packed.   You split up the Harrisburg metro, have a district stretching from Pike to Snyder, that PA-16 district in Allegheny makes no sense at all, and drew the Chester district in an almost optimal way for Republicans.   That's not a neutral map at all.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

This is not what a fair map looks like because it gerrymanders to get Democrats to proportionality. Democrats are self-packed into Philly and Pittsburgh. A fair map would be 9-5-3, like this. https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::1aec4a7c-782d-4214-82ac-1a0e16a04cb7

Only they really aren't all that self-packed.   You split up the Harrisburg metro, have a district stretching from Pike to Snyder, that PA-16 district in Allegheny makes no sense at all, and drew the Chester district in an almost optimal way for Republicans.   That's not a neutral map at all.

The PA-16 definitely makes sense. It's the suburbs of Alleghany after PA-17 is drawn. The Chester district includes blue Reading, and it's the most logical way to draw the district after keeping Bucks whole and drawing a Montgomery County only district. The Harrisburg has the most optimal split: my map avoids splitting York and Lancaster counties, which have more population than Harrisburg, but even if you prioritize keep Harrisburg whole (little real reason to do so) that's still a Trump district. Same for Scranton/PA-08 and PA-09: my configuration avoids county splits, but even if you want to draw it in a more Dem-friendly way it's still a Trump seat.

[lfromnj]

Sure it's still a Trump seat but theres a huge difference between a Trump +18 and a Trump +3 seat especially in that area. Come on man. Your Chesco split is probably a few points R favorable as well. SCPA is pretty weird so I can forgive most stuff in the area but that's just yuck. Sure Dauphin is 300k vs York and Lancaster being a majority but Dauphin + Eastern Cumberland is like 500k

[lfromnj]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

That was always agreed upon since the begining of this cycle. The Democratic seats still needed to pick up 300k in population of blood red territory. Considering 3/4 swing seats for Democrats got shored up despite that, that's a swell courtmander they got.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::48bc041f-ff25-42bc-a74d-d90f325dde0e

Look at Palandios map. Democrats gain like 14 points from PA17 moving it from somewhere around Trump +8 to Biden +6. They gain like 10 points for PA06 with the tri chop of Berks to drown it out with Montgomery and Chester. . That's a whole 25 points worth gained in swing districts .

It's a neutral map in wbrock67's alternate reality where Biden actually won PA by 9.

Huh? What the f**k are you actually talking about? Biden won Pennsylvania. It's a 9-8 Biden map. Biden won PA slightly. The map has a slight Biden won edge. How is that objectionable? This is literally what a fair map looks like. If Trump won PA slightly, then you'd expect it to be a 9-8 Trump map. How are people actually having an issue with this?!

Still trying to understand why Dragging Montgomery County all the way out to Tri Chop Berks needs to happen for a 9-8 Biden map.

[Torie]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

That was always agreed upon since the begining of this cycle. The Democratic seats still needed to pick up 300k in population of blood red territory. Considering 3/4 swing seats for Democrats got shored up despite that, that's a swell courtmander they got.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::48bc041f-ff25-42bc-a74d-d90f325dde0e

Look at Palandios map. Democrats gain like 14 points from PA17 moving it from somewhere around Trump +8 to Biden +6. They gain like 10 points for PA06 with the tri chop of Berks to drown it out with Montgomery and Chester. . That's a whole 25 points worth gained in swing districts .

It's a neutral map in wbrock67's alternate reality where Biden actually won PA by 9.

Huh? What the f**k are you actually talking about? Biden won Pennsylvania. It's a 9-8 Biden map. Biden won PA slightly. The map has a slight Biden won edge. How is that objectionable? This is literally what a fair map looks like. If Trump won PA slightly, then you'd expect it to be a 9-8 Trump map. How are people actually having an issue with this?!

Still trying to understand why Dragging Montgomery County all the way out to Tri Chop Berks needs to happen for a 9-8 Biden map.

That is the least change approach. My map did exactly the same thing.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Sure it's still a Trump seat but theres a huge difference between a Trump +18 and a Trump +3 seat especially in that area. Come on man. Your Chesco split is probably a few points R favorable as well. SCPA is pretty weird so I can forgive most stuff in the area but that's just yuck. Sure Dauphin is 300k vs York and Lancaster being a majority but Dauphin + Eastern Cumberland is like 500k

I mean, sure, but my main response was the justification for the split. Giving York and Lancaster their own seats is more important. And I don't see how my Chesco split is R favorable, but glad to see other maps if you prefer others.