2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1470813556362948609

Cleaned up  R map which also makes PA06 more red. Not sure what the point of these antics are when all this does is antagonize Dems who might be interested in a compromise.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wish there was a more Harrisburg centered district but not a bad map.

That PA-17 seems to intentionally take in reddest rural areas possible which seem kind of disconnected

[lfromnj]

Wish there was a more Harrisburg centered district but not a bad map.

It's fairly easy to make a pretty Safe R Harrisburg district which would just mostly be Cumberland + Dauphin + Lebanon + 50k random pop. The issue however is Lancaster County is the base of the PA GOP and the house redistricting chair is from York. SCPA is basically 2 districts worth of pop so even without partisan implications Harrisburg would be the one to get chopped by any GOP map especially considering Perry is from York and Smucker is from Lancaster.

The most gerrymandered part is keeping the Lackawanna/Lehigh configuration where they make PA07 and PA08 both more red by having PA08 taking in random rurals before taking in the rest of the Wilkes Barres area.

Also they made PA06 more R but also more compact as I said earlier where even though it seemed that PA06 was a R gerrymander in Holton's map it was relatively D friendly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wish there was a more Harrisburg centered district but not a bad map.

It's fairly easy to make a pretty Safe R Harrisburg district which would just mostly be Cumberland + Dauphin + Lebanon + 50k random pop. The issue however is Lancaster County is the base of the PA GOP and the house redistricting chair is from York. SCPA is basically 2 districts worth of pop so even without partisan implications Harrisburg would be the one to get chopped by any GOP map especially considering Perry is from York and Smucker is from Lancaster.

The most gerrymandered part is keeping the Lackawanna/Lehigh configuration where they make PA07 and PA08 both more red by having PA08 taking in random rurals before taking in the rest of the Wilkes Barres area.

Also they made PA06 more R but also more compact as I said earlier where even though it seemed that PA06 was a R gerrymander in Holton's map it was relatively D friendly.

A thought: why couldn't  Harrisburg be paired with State College in a fair-fight district, while Smucker and Perry both get the sort of districts they want?

[lfromnj]

Wish there was a more Harrisburg centered district but not a bad map.

It's fairly easy to make a pretty Safe R Harrisburg district which would just mostly be Cumberland + Dauphin + Lebanon + 50k random pop. The issue however is Lancaster County is the base of the PA GOP and the house redistricting chair is from York. SCPA is basically 2 districts worth of pop so even without partisan implications Harrisburg would be the one to get chopped by any GOP map especially considering Perry is from York and Smucker is from Lancaster.

The most gerrymandered part is keeping the Lackawanna/Lehigh configuration where they make PA07 and PA08 both more red by having PA08 taking in random rurals before taking in the rest of the Wilkes Barres area.

Also they made PA06 more R but also more compact as I said earlier where even though it seemed that PA06 was a R gerrymander in Holton's map it was relatively D friendly.

A thought: why couldn't  Harrisburg be paired with State College in a fair-fight district, while Smucker and Perry both get the sort of districts they want?

I was working on that but anyway a compromise map just nukes it or at least keeps it Trump +10 as its the last thing Dems will want. They only have 3 state reps in the entirety of the state college, Harrisburg and York area. No state senators either in the area so little push for it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wish there was a more Harrisburg centered district but not a bad map.

It's fairly easy to make a pretty Safe R Harrisburg district which would just mostly be Cumberland + Dauphin + Lebanon + 50k random pop. The issue however is Lancaster County is the base of the PA GOP and the house redistricting chair is from York. SCPA is basically 2 districts worth of pop so even without partisan implications Harrisburg would be the one to get chopped by any GOP map especially considering Perry is from York and Smucker is from Lancaster.

The most gerrymandered part is keeping the Lackawanna/Lehigh configuration where they make PA07 and PA08 both more red by having PA08 taking in random rurals before taking in the rest of the Wilkes Barres area.

Also they made PA06 more R but also more compact as I said earlier where even though it seemed that PA06 was a R gerrymander in Holton's map it was relatively D friendly.

A thought: why couldn't  Harrisburg be paired with State College in a fair-fight district, while Smucker and Perry both get the sort of districts they want?

I was working on that but anyway compromise map just nukes it or atleast keeps it Trump +10 as its the last thing Dems will want. They only have 3 state reps in the entirety of the state college, Harrisburg and York area. No state senators either so little push for it.

Ah, that makes sense.
Ds pushing for a fair-fight Dauphin-to-Penn State CD would likely come at the expense of one of their SEPA incumbents too, come to think about it. Give-and-take is the essence of a bipartisan compromise map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c011e3b9-9b53-4bc8-9846-8c493d29d378
(An effort at a) bipartisan compromise map that splits no townships. Definitely at least a bit D friendly (especially to Dem incumbents), but the Lehigh CD, the median district, is more R-friendly than its current iteration, in fact, perfectly mirroring the state's partisanship with 2020 numbers, and also has a R+ PVI on 2016/2020 numbers.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1470813556362948609

Cleaned up  R map which also makes PA06 more red. Not sure what the point of these antics are when all this does is antagonize Dems who might be interested in a compromise.

Why should we compromise when we control the State Supreme Court?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c011e3b9-9b53-4bc8-9846-8c493d29d378
(An effort at a) bipartisan compromise map that splits no townships. Definitely at least a bit D friendly (especially to Dem incumbents), but the Lehigh CD, the median district, is more R-friendly than its current iteration, in fact, perfectly mirroring the state's partisanship with 2020 numbers, and also has a R+ PVI on 2016/2020 numbers.

Do Republicans have a shot at either of the Allegheny County districts in 2022 with this map?

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1470813556362948609
Cleaned up  R map which also makes PA06 more red. Not sure what the point of these antics are when all this does is antagonize Dems who might be interested in a compromise.

Why should we compromise when we control the State Supreme Court?

Because they'll probably draw a map that resembles the current map (that they drew) with a red seat in the middle cut out but with PA-7, PA-8, and PA-17 taking in more red territory. So a mostly fair map that has some competitive districts. It could be better to lock in an incumbent protection gerrymander type map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c011e3b9-9b53-4bc8-9846-8c493d29d378
(An effort at a) bipartisan compromise map that splits no townships. Definitely at least a bit D friendly (especially to Dem incumbents), but the Lehigh CD, the median district, is more R-friendly than its current iteration, in fact, perfectly mirroring the state's partisanship with 2020 numbers, and also has a R+ PVI on 2016/2020 numbers.

Do Republicans have a shot at either of the Allegheny County districts in 2022 with this map?

Biden won them both by more than a dozen points.

[Boss_Rahm]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1470813556362948609
Cleaned up  R map which also makes PA06 more red. Not sure what the point of these antics are when all this does is antagonize Dems who might be interested in a compromise.

Why should we compromise when we control the State Supreme Court?

Because they'll probably draw a map that resembles the current map (that they drew) with a red seat in the middle cut out but with PA-7, PA-8, and PA-17 taking in more red territory. So a mostly fair map that has some competitive districts. It could be better to lock in an incumbent protection gerrymander type map.

Unless Republicans agree to a D-leaning PA-8, Democrats would be better off letting the court draw the map. And you have to get pretty creative to draw an incumbent protection map that would both pass muster with the court and actually protect Cartwright. Here's what I came up with: https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c175385-a006-42db-b014-3dffed8f0450

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1470813556362948609
Cleaned up  R map which also makes PA06 more red. Not sure what the point of these antics are when all this does is antagonize Dems who might be interested in a compromise.

Why should we compromise when we control the State Supreme Court?

Because they'll probably draw a map that resembles the current map (that they drew) with a red seat in the middle cut out but with PA-7, PA-8, and PA-17 taking in more red territory. So a mostly fair map that has some competitive districts. It could be better to lock in an incumbent protection gerrymander type map.

Unless Republicans agree to a D-leaning PA-8, Democrats would be better off letting the court draw the map. And you have to get pretty creative to draw an incumbent protection map that would both pass muster with the court and actually protect Cartwright. Here's what I came up with: https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c175385-a006-42db-b014-3dffed8f0450

Dems could agree to make PA-08 quite a bit redder in order to protect PA-07.

[CookieDamage]

What do you guys think would be better for the Philly area? Two plurality black districts or one majority black district?

[CookieDamage]

My attempt at a fair map. 8 Biden, 9 Trump seats. CD1 is majority black, CD2 is plurality black.

I think in a regular year, seats 3, 4, 5, 8, possibly 9, and 16 would be competitive. CD3 would probably be Brian Fitzpatrick's new district, and would be his as long as he wants it. 5 is gonna be drifting away from Dems in the long run while 16 should be trending towards Dems. 8 probably went to Ds in 2018 and would probably flip next year back to the GOP. CD9 would probably be like a Cunningham or Horn district. Surprise DEM gain in 2018 only to flip back in 2020.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ce9395fd-1cb2-4f6b-a15a-d68ae6c83ec6

[Sol]

Here's a fairish map designed to please the PAGOP--perhaps like the sort of fair map a Republican court would have made in overruling a Dem gerrymander.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a fairish map designed to please the PAGOP--perhaps like the sort of fair map a Republican court would have made in overruling a Dem gerrymander.

I don't see a court splitting Bucks, but otherwise, this does look like a "court" sort of map.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/GianniHillPA/status/1471534625659002883

Senate seems GOP favorable.
FWIW the current map has 25 Biden seats lol.
https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1471556922763624457
https://twitter.com/AveryTheComrade/status/1471585813783662595
House seems like a sorta Dem gerrymander. Dems went all in for Luzerne with 4 Trump but still downballot D seats.

[wbrocks67]

Both seem way more neutral than what we have now, if I'm not mistaken. Though that's a low bar considering both right now are extreme GOP gerrymanders

[lfromnj]

Both seem way more neutral than what we have now, if I'm not mistaken. Though that's a low bar considering both right now are extreme GOP gerrymanders

I mean the  Republican PA state supreme court did block the initial proposals for excessive city/county splits.

Even then Biden actually has 25 seats on the current map compared to 24 on the new map

[Gass3268]

Both seem way more neutral than what we have now, if I'm not mistaken. Though that's a low bar considering both right now are extreme GOP gerrymanders

I mean the  Republican PA state supreme court did block the initial proposals for excessive city/county splits.

Even then Biden actually has 25 seats on the current map compared to 24 on the new map

Rearrange Lancaster County and you get a lean Biden seat and get back to 25.

[lfromnj]

Also wondering about the legality of the Lackawanna/Luzerne senate districts. Not sure why it was drawn like that either. There is a double cross.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're so screwed in Redistricting, since Sinema won't pass Voting Rights

[Boss_Rahm]

Senate seems GOP favorable.
FWIW the current map has 25 Biden seats lol.

Looking at the number of Biden/Trump districts doesn't tell the whole story here. Republican Senators Browne and Tomlinson both survived the '18 wave in Biden districts, and would've been tough to beat under the old map in a more GOP-friendly year. Under the new map, Browne's SD-16 moved to a more rural area, creating an open Allentown-based seat (SD-14) that voted for Biden by 9 points. Tomlinson got safer in SD-6, but so did Democrat Steve Santarsiero in SD-10, who would've been more vulnerable under the old map. Similarly, in Allegheny County SD-37 shifted right and SD-38 shifted left, to benefit an incumbent in each party. And lastly, SD-15 moved entirely within Dauphin County, shifting it from a Trump district to a Biden +15 district.

So overall, Democrats will likely pick up 2 seats from this map. A fairer map would've included a Democratic-leaning Lancaster-area seat, but this one still undoes a good chunk of the gerrymandering compared to last decade's map.

[wbrocks67]

I take back what I said - the new House map seems very fair (102-101 Biden) but the new state senate map seems more trash than what I originally thought.

Realized that my home district in Montco, currently with Katie Muth (D) is going from 42-40 R edge to a 47-36 R edge which is ... an incredibly jarring change. Especially for a Montco district which continues to trend left (and my particular township does as well)