2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good choice. The only choice that's unfavorable to Dems is the Wild seat, which I get is frustrating, but given the pretty D-friendly choices elsewhere it's hard to complain. Overall, a pretty good COI map in the vein of the Persily one.

The Wild seat has basically nowhere else to go but there of course on a CoI-driven map. Carbon County is part of the Lehigh Valley.
This map is very, very reminiscient of the Persily one. And as you said, there's a lot of Dem-friendly choices on this map too.
Ds are well positioned for 2022 and beyond with this one.

[Oryxslayer]

Good choice. The only choice that's unfavorable to Dems is the Wild seat, which I get is frustrating, but given the pretty D-friendly choices elsewhere it's hard to complain. Overall, a pretty good COI map in the vein of the Persily one.

The Wild seat has basically nowhere else to go but there of course on a CoI-driven map. Carbon County is part of the Lehigh Valley.
This map is very, very reminiscient of the Persily one. And as you said, there's a lot of Dem-friendly choices on this map too.
Ds are well positioned for 2022 and beyond with this one.

The other option is to put Monroe in PA-07, probably then either removing red areas from outer Lehigh or just keeping PA-07 as it was and cut Monroe. Of course this basically trades Cartwright for a better PA-07 long-term, and that deal may not be acceptable given ones perspective.

[compucomp]

Good choice. The only choice that's unfavorable to Dems is the Wild seat, which I get is frustrating, but given the pretty D-friendly choices elsewhere it's hard to complain. Overall, a pretty good COI map in the vein of the Persily one.

The Wild seat has basically nowhere else to go but there of course on a CoI-driven map. Carbon County is part of the Lehigh Valley.
This map is very, very reminiscient of the Persily one. And as you said, there's a lot of Dem-friendly choices on this map too.
Ds are well positioned for 2022 and beyond with this one.

In addition to the COI consideration, if Monroe County were given to PA-7 to make it more D then PA-8 would be more R in compensation. This way it splits the difference and keeps both competitive, which to me is fine.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good choice. The only choice that's unfavorable to Dems is the Wild seat, which I get is frustrating, but given the pretty D-friendly choices elsewhere it's hard to complain. Overall, a pretty good COI map in the vein of the Persily one.

The Wild seat has basically nowhere else to go but there of course on a CoI-driven map. Carbon County is part of the Lehigh Valley.
This map is very, very reminiscient of the Persily one. And as you said, there's a lot of Dem-friendly choices on this map too.
Ds are well positioned for 2022 and beyond with this one.

The other option is to put Monroe in PA-07, probably then either removing red areas from outer Lehigh or just keeping PA-07 as it was and cut Monroe. Of course this basically trades Cartwright for a better PA-07 long-term, and that deal may not be acceptable given ones perspective.

Is it possible that the court was influenced by Cartwright's seniority vis a vis Wild?

[GALeftist]

I think Cartwright could possibly still win in a squeaker. This PA-08 is bluer than the last one. I would have preferred giving Monroe to PA-07 long term but you get what you get

[ProgressiveModerate]

What was the split anyway ?

9-8 Biden, though the Scranton and Harrisburg seats only went narrowly to Trump.

I meant the split for the court vote.

4-3 decision. Justices Todd, Mundy, and Brobson dissent. I believe one of the dems wanted a different plan.

Todd is a surprise since iirc she's the one who wrote the 2018 decision; my guess is she likely wanted a slightly more Dem favorable one or was just being nitpicky about something.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think Cartwright could possibly still win in a squeaker. This PA-08 is bluer than the last one. I would have preferred giving Monroe to PA-07 long term but you get what you get

It's obvious he still has a chance to win. The million dollar question is how much of a chance that is.

[Boss_Rahm]

Good choice. The only choice that's unfavorable to Dems is the Wild seat, which I get is frustrating, but given the pretty D-friendly choices elsewhere it's hard to complain. Overall, a pretty good COI map in the vein of the Persily one.

The Wild seat has basically nowhere else to go but there of course on a CoI-driven map. Carbon County is part of the Lehigh Valley.
This map is very, very reminiscient of the Persily one. And as you said, there's a lot of Dem-friendly choices on this map too.
Ds are well positioned for 2022 and beyond with this one.

The other option is to put Monroe in PA-07, probably then either removing red areas from outer Lehigh or just keeping PA-07 as it was and cut Monroe. Of course this basically trades Cartwright for a better PA-07 long-term, and that deal may not be acceptable given ones perspective.

Is it possible that the court was influenced by Cartwright's seniority vis a vis Wild?

The Court was only ever going to choose one of the proposed maps. But the plaintiffs who drew this map may have thought that Cartwright was more likely to survive 2022 than Wild, because he's been in Congress longer.

[wbrocks67]

Does someone have Bidne/Trump breakdowns for each?

Moving Norristown and Bridgeport out of PA-4 is .... a choice. Not sure how you have a Montco-based seat without those two cities.

[Boss_Rahm]

Does someone have Bidne/Trump breakdowns for each?

Moving Norristown and Bridgeport out of PA-4 is .... a choice. Not sure how you have a Montco-based seat without those two cities.

I'm guessing this was done to increase the minority share in PA-5.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does someone have Bidne/Trump breakdowns for each?

Moving Norristown and Bridgeport out of PA-4 is .... a choice. Not sure how you have a Montco-based seat without those two cities.

2020 Presidential figures for each district:
PA-01: 51.8-47.2 Biden
PA-02: 71-28.3 Biden
PA-03: 90.1-9.2 Biden
PA-04: 58.9-40 Biden
PA-05: 65.7-33.4 Biden
PA-06: 56.8-42 Biden
PA-07: 49.7-49.1 Biden
PA-08: 50.9-48 Trump
PA-09: 67.5-31 Trump
PA-10: 51.3-47.2 Trump
PA-11: 59.9-38.6 Trump
PA-12: 59.4-39.5 Biden
PA-13: 72-26.8 Trump
PA-14: 65.2-33.7 Trump
PA-15: 67.8-30.8 Trump
PA-16: 59.7-39 Trump
PA-17: 52.3-46.5 Biden

[wbrocks67]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

[lfromnj]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

[wbrocks67]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

[lfromnj]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

That was always agreed upon since the begining of this cycle. The Democratic seats still needed to pick up 300k in population of blood red territory. Considering 3/4 swing seats for Democrats got shored up despite that, that's a swell courtmander they got.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::48bc041f-ff25-42bc-a74d-d90f325dde0e

Look at Palandios map. Democrats gain like 14 points from PA17 moving it from somewhere around Trump +8 to Biden +6. They gain like 10 points for PA06 with the tri chop of Berks to drown it out with Montgomery and Chester. . That's a whole 25 points worth gained in swing districts .

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

The median district is still more R than the state as a whole, though very marginally.

[wbrocks67]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

That was always agreed upon since the begining of this cycle. The Democratic seats still needed to pick up 300k in population of blood red territory. Considering 3/4 swing seats for Democrats got shored up despite that, that's a swell courtmander they got.

It's a Biden 9-8 map. That's not a mander of any kind.

[BoiseBoy]

Is there a DRA link for this map? Thanks.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is there a DRA link for this map? Thanks.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c2d737ae-ab94-4842-a465-e3f331508082
Here it is, though it was also in the tweet on the last page.

[lfromnj]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

That was always agreed upon since the begining of this cycle. The Democratic seats still needed to pick up 300k in population of blood red territory. Considering 3/4 swing seats for Democrats got shored up despite that, that's a swell courtmander they got.

It's a Biden 9-8 map. That's not a mander of any kind.

Cool, so Democrat's can't complain at all about the AZ map as its 5-4 Biden and the Texas map is merely a mild gerrymander as its 14 D seats on the composite and 24 R seats .

[lfromnj]

Good choice. The only choice that's unfavorable to Dems is the Wild seat, which I get is frustrating, but given the pretty D-friendly choices elsewhere it's hard to complain. Overall, a pretty good COI map in the vein of the Persily one.

The Wild seat has basically nowhere else to go but there of course on a CoI-driven map. Carbon County is part of the Lehigh Valley.
This map is very, very reminiscient of the Persily one. And as you said, there's a lot of Dem-friendly choices on this map too.
Ds are well positioned for 2022 and beyond with this one.

The other option is to put Monroe in PA-07, probably then either removing red areas from outer Lehigh or just keeping PA-07 as it was and cut Monroe. Of course this basically trades Cartwright for a better PA-07 long-term, and that deal may not be acceptable given ones perspective.

Is it possible that the court was influenced by Cartwright's seniority vis a vis Wild?

Don't forget the most important influence I guess about partisan fairness. Giving Wild Monroe means PA17 has to be  a Trump 2016 seat by any measure of partisan fairness. This allows Democrats to sneakily gerrymander up PA17 more while just mixing 2 swing seats to be swingier which doesn't hurt them atleast in the medium run. No one can say where trends will end up for certain but if they continue PA08 would trend R while PA07 is probably one of the most "American districts" with a variety of working class and more upscale areas along with urban areas, suburbs, and rural areas while also including diverse minority areas all the while still being a perfect COI.

[BoiseBoy]

Is there a DRA link for this map? Thanks.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c2d737ae-ab94-4842-a465-e3f331508082
Here it is, though it was also in the tweet on the last page.

Some of the deviations seem quite high. I guess 0 deviation wasn't a criteria here?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is there a DRA link for this map? Thanks.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c2d737ae-ab94-4842-a465-e3f331508082
Here it is, though it was also in the tweet on the last page.

Some of the deviations seem quite high. I guess 0 deviation wasn't a criteria here?

If I had to guess, there is 0 deviation, but that comes from precinct splitting.

[Horus]

Solid map but I feel like there should be a district wholly within Allegheny county.

[Tekken_Guy]

Solid map but I feel like there should be a district wholly within Allegheny county.

That would probably mean making PA-17 a Trump seat.