2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Roll Roons]

Why is Indiana releasing results before 6? Isn't that like, illegal? Must be a test.

Yeah I just checked and they were gone. Must have been a test.

[Roll Roons]

It really does look like Biden has more upside in NC based on NYT's count of outstanding votes.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-north-carolina-president.html

[Roll Roons]

What is going on in NE-01? The NE Secretary of State website says Biden is up 5??

He is destroying it in Lincoln right now.

Fortenberry appears to be doing worse than Bacon...

[Roll Roons]

Another thing to consider about Wisconsin - it's not just Milwaukee. Trump is currently up by 22 points in Kenosha, with 40% left to count. Doubt that lead holds. Biden's leads are also exceeding Hillary's in Eau Claire and La Crosse, with 7% left in each. There is hope there.

[Roll Roons]

So what are the odds in GA?

[Roll Roons]

When was the last time there was Democratic President, Republican Senate and Democratic House?

1886, under Grover Cleveland. Insane.

Obama: D trifecta 2008-2010, R House D Senate 2010-2014, R Congress 2014-2016
Clinton: D trifecta 1992-1994, R Congress 1994-2000
Carter, LBJ, JFK: D trifecta for entire terms
Truman: D trifecta 1945-1946, R Congress 1946-1948, D trifecta 1948-1952
FDR: D trifecta entire time
Wilson: D trifecta 1912-1918, R Congress 1918-1920

[Roll Roons]

When are we getting a call for Michigan? Looks like that one's a done deal.

[Roll Roons]

What is the confidence level in Michigan? It is remaining a very tight race. Are the remaining votes not likely to be particularly pro-Trump?

Most of the votes are in Wayne and Kent

There also seems to be some outstanding vote in Flint.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324076927121051648

[Roll Roons]

Is Nassau, NY really going Trump? Ngl that came out of nowhere.

Probably not, since I think there'll be a significant blue shift in NY. Though I think Republicans will hold NY-02.

[Roll Roons]

Wow. 20K new batch from Bucks County and it is 78% Biden, 22% Trump.

Before: Bucks (300k): Trump 53.2%, Biden 45.5% (Trump +7.7)
After: Bucks (320k): Trump 51.2%, Biden 47.5% (Trump +3.7)

Nearly 60K mail ins still to be counted in Bucks.
https://twitter.com/GeorgeSolis/status/1324011661200601088

Wanted to kindly point out that Fitz is outperforming Trump by over 16 points.

[Roll Roons]

I'm not entirely ruling out a 321 EV win that is a 5-6% PV margin along with 51 Democratic Senators.

You think there's a chance Cunningham can win?

[Roll Roons]

Biden being at almost 67% in MA is a pretty amazing result.

Over 65% in California, over 60% in Washington state and Maryland 63%.

Also 65% in Vermont. I really want to know what kind of electoral magic Phil Scott and Kim Wyman have.

[Roll Roons]

Biden has taken a 1% lead in Bucks County and there are 30k ballots left to count in the county.

Where'd you see this? NYT still has Trump with a tiny lead in Bucks.

[Roll Roons]

Biden has taken a 1% lead in Bucks County and there are 30k ballots left to count in the county.

Where'd you see this? NYT still has Trump with a tiny lead in Bucks.

https://www.livevoterturnout.com/BucksPA/LiveResults/en/Index_2.html

Holy ticket splitting.

[Roll Roons]

Biden has taken a 1% lead in Bucks County and there are 30k ballots left to count in the county.

Where'd you see this? NYT still has Trump with a tiny lead in Bucks.

https://www.livevoterturnout.com/BucksPA/LiveResults/en/Index_2.html

Holy ticket splitting.

Yeah I didn't realize until a few hours ago how much better Fitzpatrick did than Trump.

I always had faith in him. The man won reelection in 2018 as Wolf won his district by 19 and Casey by 15, and this time, he's outperformed the top of the ticket by a similar spread.

[Roll Roons]

Anybody know what happened with Will Hurd's seat in TX?

I guess it stayed R because of the rural Hispanic swing in the RGV. I really wish Will had run for reelection, because he would have won easily.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324228834598801410

I'll say it before and I'll say it again - holy ticket splitting! Though not quite as much as in PA-01.

[Roll Roons]

The irony is that he would have had it all if he'd just stayed as the host of the Apprentice. He screwed himself by running for president.

[Roll Roons]

Well, I'm heavily disappointed in Trump's near-certain loss but I'm already looking ahead to 2022 and 2024.

I suspect we'll probably flip the House in 2022 and pick up a senate seat or two. This will lay the groundwork for our eventual nominee to be in a great position to defeat Biden or Harris in 2024.

Not likely.  You'd need to start cutting deep into the suburban districts that are trending away from the GOP to win back the house.  And the senate map looks awful for Republicans.

It's far from impossible that the suburbs bounce back with Trump out of office.

[Roll Roons]

Judas Van Drew winning is probably the single most disappointing/infuriating result of the entire election. Against a Kennedy, too. MillennialModerate will REALLY be in shambles if that happens AND Georgia goes for Joe though.

Why do you believe Van Drew won his race?  He's up 4 points with only 75% of the vote counted, and we already know how VBMs shift the race.

Jersey was mostly VBM this year, with in-person ballots being considered provisional and not being counted until next week, so they're actually more likely to have a red shift.

[Roll Roons]

Pennsylvania’s top election official says it may take longer than expected to complete the count there. Her office says about 326,000 mail ballots still need to be counted

Fron NYTIMES

Are they fing serious.

Who's officially responsible for counting in GA, PA and AZ?

Fire all of them

This is 3rd world tier counting.

I'm frustrated too, but it's important to remember that this is a completely unprecedented election. We've never had to count this many absentees.

Other states (MI, WI) were able to get it done yesterday.

[Roll Roons]

At this point, what's left in GA?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/RepKinzinger/status/1324503564891414528

LOL it's quite something to see Republicans suddenly seem to wake up.

Of course it's really just because they know he's lost and is a liability so they're happy to throw him under the bus now. They knew all along he was terrible and stood by and enabled that. They're trying to start pivoting away from him now, nobody should buy it.

Kinzinger's usually called him out.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/HurdOnTheHill/status/1324525976198565890

Sad he's retiring. He's a great guy and would have won.