Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Re: CA-21  Kings seems to be just about done counting votes and Valodao has a 2200 vote lead.  If the counties in the district each make up the same % of the vote they did in 2016, then you would expect Kern to still have about 7500 votes to add and Fresno 3500. 

If there are that many left, Cox is more likely than not to win.

[Florida Man for Crime]

why would you be mad at TJ cox? what did he do wrong? daring to represent a hispanic district as a white? He took the risk and campaigned when Emilio huertas mom tried to scare everyone else.

Well, simply put, its because he was such a bad candidate, and one who put in little effort into his campaign. He doesnt even have a website. He literally switched to run in this district because it was open. And it will be him to, possibly, unseat a titan of the GOP. Its just, I dont even know.

It takes a titan to unseat a titan. What is this elitist nonsense about websites?

[Florida Man for Crime]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

Well, thats not true. As I said before, if the commission passes, they will have to make a Lean-Likely D seat in SLC county, which would be easily winnable for Ds.

Republican map drawers wouldn't make a Lean/Likely D seat in SLC even with the commission recommendations. At best they'd draw a south SLC seat that is R+9 or so. Granted, McAdams would've won that this year, but it's not Lean/Likely D by any stretch of the imagination.

You shouldnt use PVI for a place like UT, especially with its bloated 2012 result(the UT-04 district has a PVI of R+13, to give an idea). The most likely result would be around an even seat, or one that voted slightly Democratic, as counties must be kept whole(cant cut SLC).

I am well aware. The resulting seat would still not be leans/likely D solely because McAdams would've carried it in a D+8 year. Don't be a hack.

If you draw an R leaning seat in the southern part of Salt Lake County, then the northern part of Salt Lake County, including Salt Lake City, still has to go somewhere else. That other district will at the minimum not be safe R, and is not likely to be more than about R+6 or R+7 at the most, and that is with the bloated PVI including Romney 2012.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Democrat Gina Ortiz-Jones has conceded to Rep. Will Hurd (R) in TX-23

https://twitter.com/GinaOrtizJones/status/1064575408002162688

She said short "this time" which suggests that she may run again in 2020, i.e. she hopes that "next time" she won't come up short.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Damn shame. If only the DCCC didn't abandon her, she probably would've won.

They really blew it both here and CA-21 as well (do we still have a chance there?). I think for 2020 and maybe beyond, they need to concede that maybe their polling isn't so great and that they should just heavily contest seats that on paper should be highly competitive if not better. At least if those seats are rich with Latino voters/other POC.

Winner winner chicken dinner.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064685454556127232

[Florida Man for Crime]

It would be really amazing if Dems pull out both CA-21 and UT-04. That would be 40 seats gained, right? Or is it 41?

[Florida Man for Crime]

The Dems ending this election with a net of 40 seats seems pretty likely now, especially since things are looking pretty good for Cox.

Lol you keep posting the same thing that I do a few seconds before.

[Florida Man for Crime]

If there’s a silver lining for CA Republicans, there isn’t much more room for them to fall after they’ve been reduced to absolute rubble in the state.

That has been said before, and then CA Republicans fell even further.

[Florida Man for Crime]

If McAdams and Cox both win the Democrats will have won 235 seats (a total of 41 R seats).  BTW, TJ Cox would be the only Filipino-American in Congress, and if I'm not mistaken the first ever Filipino American with voting rights?

If it is 41 with both of them, then we just need NY-27 to somehow come through against all odds to get to 42. It can still happen... You just gotta believe.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Nobody is mentioning that we should target Crenshaw, the GOP's new Golden Boy? He massively underperformed.

By what metric did he massively underperform? If he just underperformed relative to PVI/Romney, that wouldn't be particularly remarkable, since that was true all over suburban TX. Plus, this was an open seat, so in some ways it was not that different from TX-03, where the R performance was also pretty lackluster by past standards.

The thing I would want to look at are the Beto-Cruz numbers in TX-02. How much, if at all, did Crenshaw overperform Cruz by? But I haven't seen them anywhere yet.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Nobody is mentioning that we should target Crenshaw, the GOP's new Golden Boy? He massively underperformed.

Not really
he won by 8 which is about what 538's model stated.
it was an open seat in a quickly trending democrat district albiet with some HEAVY republican ancestry. Beto might even have carried this district or come within 2-3.  Considering those factors Crenshaw should be in good in 2020 barring a massive wave.
Anyway Marchant is #1 beto carried this district by 4 points and the dem opponent sucked ass Mccaul @#2  and Carter should be on retirement watch. Of the remaining the rest should be safe or relatively safe.
Olson can also be a target considering the insane growth of Fort Bend
But Crenshaw was outraised and was not an incumbent has just ran a tough race and primary so in general he doesn't seem like the candidate to sleep through. Crenshaw won't lose in 2020 unless its a massive wave.

Add to that TX-10, and TX-21, simply because of how close they are (though I don't think either is particularly likely, given how good turnout was in Austin, neither one is really out of reach given the Beto #s). And of course TX-23. But other than TX-23, TX-24 obviously should be the #1 target in TX. Get a good Dem recruit there, give them a couple million dollars, and let them make Kenny Marchant learn what it is like to be Pete Sessions.

[Florida Man for Crime]

A young, attractive, disabled GOP veteran with a moderate streak whom the media was absolutely fellating following the Pete Davidson debacle got only 52% of the vote in a Republican district against an anonymous Democrat receiving no outside help. By what measure did he not underperform?

The R candidate in TX-03 was also a veteran (although not disabled) and underperformed Trump notably in a suburban ancestrally R seat. I am not saying that TX-02 is not worth contesting. By all means, it is. It is just not unique in that respect among TX suburban districts, and is *probably* not the best of the various targets (pending finding out what the Beto-Cruz numbers were). But the TX suburbs for 2020 are (at least if the Dem Presidential nominee contests TX and does at least reasonably well) a target rich environment, so just because TX-02 is not the best of all the various targets does not mean it shouldn't be targeted.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Kern should put Cox over the top in CA-21 as long as the #s of ballots left which were reported are not wrong.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I remember when Jeppe, Coastal Elitist, and socaldem told me Young Kim would make CA-39 Lean R because she’s a Strong Candidate while Gil Cisneros is a Weak Candidate.

I will also want to laugh at the people (particularly Charlie Kirk) who were calling her Represenative-elect on Election Night.

TBH there was a quality gap and its effects are obvious: despite CA39 being both open and the most Clinton of the OC CDs (not including 49), it has the smallest Dem margin of victory. It's just that partisanship is a hell of a drug.

Even if Cisneros wasn't that great of a candidate, that doesn't explain the insane hype surrounding Kim. Neither her electoral, history, nor the campaign she ran warranted the predictions that she would easily dispatch her opponent in an open Clinton district.

She was pretty much the only new Republican candidate in a competitive district who was not a white male, so she was bound to be hyped on those grounds regardless of any actual merit (or lack thereof). Similar to unbeatable titan John James on the Senate side.

[Florida Man for Crime]

KERNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

[Florida Man for Crime]

Is that all of what's left in Kern? I mean, given that there's still more of Fresno, we can probably stick a fork in Valadao at this point, but if there's more left in Kern, then we could see Cox at least get closer to a 1,000 vote margin.

There is *supposed* to be more Kern, but we will have to wait to see if it shows up in future days I guess.

The concern is that there is known to be some more King as well, but there is supposed to be more Kern and Fresno, and given how good that small bit of Kern is it should be fine.

[Florida Man for Crime]

So are they going to un-call CA-21 after Cox wins?

[Florida Man for Crime]

So are they going to un-call CA-21 after Cox wins?

They should double down and spend the next two years constructing an elaborate alternate universe where David Valadao is still the Congressman for CA-21.

YES

David Valadao will always be the Congressman for CA-21 in spirit. No matter what the haters say, they can't take that away.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Haha:

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1067237070777786368

Thank god. This district is so Democratic that it has no business electing a Republican to start with.

What about Peterson from MN 7?

Don't worry, it won't be electing a Democrat much longer, and it will be eliminated/combined in redistricting anyway.

[Florida Man for Crime]

This really seems misleading. The % margin is so far a bit higher than 2006, and the seat gain is huge but not really historic. And going by raw votes doesn't really tell us anything either, especially considering Republicans got high turnout too and, well, population growth obviously.

I think they are going by raw vote totals. You are right that it is definitely not a good way to look at the numbers and is not meaningful, but they are reporters, not sensible political analysts, and it makes for a good tweet/story headline.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Nah, we lost NC 9th fair and square, congrats to rep-elect Mark Harris.

Based on what? That you don't want to get your hopes up? That you want to appear moderate and reasonable to both sides?

Because the deficit is too large to make up especially with something like Bladen County, and McCready conceded, and the Bladen county certified their results. I trust the election systems and processes in this country, including those places where it is run by republicans. There is hardly any fraud, they do their jobs with integrity.

If you trust the election systems and processes in this country, then you should probably trust the fact that the NCSBE decided not to certify it so far and is investigating to make sure they get it right, one way or the other.

So you are contradicting yourself.

What it really is is you just don't want to get your hopes up.

[Florida Man for Crime]

That was all or nearly all of the remaining ballots in Kings County (they had 1,577 left to report as of yesterday, which may include some disputed ballots or unverified provisionals that won't get counted), so CA-21 is definitely over. Cox wins. He may expand his margin to over 1,000 votes once Fresno and Kern make their final reports. Tulare has been trickling in (no one mentioned on this thread yesterday that Valadao gained 2 net votes on 46 new votes reported from Tulare) but can't have more than a handful of ballots remaining in this district given the tiny drips they've been releasing.

Unbeatable Titan TJ Cox is born.