Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its VBM will always benefit D's no matter what the odds are

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Daniel Kelly's campaign launched 3 new ads targeting Protasiewicz's record as judge

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/new-gop-ads-in-wisconsin-supreme-court-race-focus-on-crime/ar-AA198FBL

The first advertisement says that when a man who brutally raped a 13 year old girl and posted a video of it to Facebook, Protasiewicz refused to sentence that child sex predator to prison time

https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/cce640e2-84a8-49e5-bd31-eb742a183b8a

The second ad says that when a man brutally attacked and sexually assaulted a woman, that victim spent endless nights, unable to sleep plagued by nightmares. Even though Protasiewicz called the offender many females' worst nightmare she cut his sentence to only 2.5 years in jail

https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/548636f3-bca6-49a2-99fb-16d8a7dd64e8

And the third ad says that a teenager with the mental capacity of a six year old has gotten tricked by a predator on Facebook using a fake name who then sexually assaulted her. Yet Protasiewicz placed that predator into probation with a measly 60 days in local prison

https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/a32584da-273c-4dba-918b-41db4425f632

The RS keep losing because they support tax cuts for the rich there was supposed to be a red wave not a blimp in 22 that never happened

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Don't pay attention to UWS and 2016 they forgot they were wrong about AK and Palin, they thought Palin would win and Mary Peltola won, RS never acknowledge that mistake, and he still thinks it's a red wave happening

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My final prediction here is that Democrats win, just because they were up in the first round and the usual pattern in Wisconsin is that the general is more, rather than less, favorable for the left-wing candidate. That said the early-vote turnout patterns look extremely favorable for conservatives and if they still lose it's going to be because they did horrifically poorly among persuadable swing voters; like much worse than in 2022.

Wisconsin is a weird swing state that is more Dem on the state level than the federal one (along with Pennsylvania)

Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson in 2012, it just happens for some reason Johnson overpolls like Walker but in 28 it's not a Midterm it's a Prez race he is gone

Johnson running in 22 was favorable to him but not a Prez cycle

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A poll from WMC shows Kelly standing 2 points behind Protasiewicz, that is compared to Protasiewicz’s 4-point lead in March 2. It seems that Protasiewicz has took a hit from the soft on crime accusations against Protasiewicz and the allegations of racism and abuse

LoL Trump is getting a bump from his arraignment he is now tied with Biden but wait for the polls this isn't a normal Eday cycle ANYWAYS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Kelly narrowly wins.

I'll go with Janet +2 for my prediction, but I would not at all be surprised to see Kelly win. If he does, WI-SEN 2024 is a tossup, tilting R.

Make up your mind.

Kelly wins. The weather will hurt Janet.

Bad weather hurts rural voters.

D's are advantage anyways when Johnson or Walker isn't on the ballot Tammy's Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson without Johnson or Walker on the ballot

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Love to see D's overperform on the WI ballot when Johnson isn't on the ballot and they will and Johnson isn't gonna to overperform in 28 like he did 22 because it's aPrez Eday not a Midterm

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson is so gone in 28

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What happened to UWS he was wrong again Ds won

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/rscottrogers/status/1643435034081198080

Indictment of Trump had an effect and Johnson wins

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tonight, the people of Wisconsin won reproductive justice and a chance at having a real democracy.

Goodness won today.

At least you're finally admitting that abortion is why the GOP loses races.

When the hell did I of all people deny this lmao

Every time I've blamed abortion for costing the GOP in a race, you're quick to pivot to 'election denial'.

Gas prices are cheap we are getting rebates on gas D's aren't losing when gas prices and they are gonna end Gerrymandering

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oof, I didn't expect such a blowout. That said, I don't think this has any implications for the 2024 prez election. Starts out as pure tossup or Tilt Biden.

Reverend Barber said WI Safe D Tammy Baldwin isn't no push over she Beat Tommy Thompson in 12, everyone thinks Baldwin is a push Over 😃 and thinks Gallagher wins he isn't even running

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson won because of Gerrymandering in WI he is gone in 28 regardless either retirement or thru a loss this Johnson seat is the same as WV for Ds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I keep saying this that when Johnson isn't on the ballot RS underpolls that's why they got lucky because it's a midterm that Johnson won he is Doomed in 28 in a Prez cycle Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson in 2012 that proves my point

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is an awful candidate who lost by over 10 in 2020 under the backdrop of the Democratic Presidential Primary, and lost by 10 again this year under the backdrop of abortion. Maybe the main problem is that he’s just a horrific candidate.

I would advise against people extrapolating too much from this result for this reason.

If this was an isolated incident, I'd probably agree with you, but it just isn't. Republicans have consistently underperformed in general elections after 2020. This is part of a systemic issue with the GOP.

The only fly in the soup for all this is that the Presidential electorate is less Black and Upper Class than more obscure elections.

So Democrats might be having the same benefits as Republicans in the 1994-2014 period by relying on their Upper Class majorities in midterms and special elections, but Presidential Elections are a different thing.

However White Biden voters are not flipping no matter what they say in the opinion polls.

Do you know how much waiters and waitresses make 2.30 the rich got richer Sports and Celebrity that works for their Corporate Sports owners while the poor got poorer since the Great Recession of 2008

Michael Moore didn't come out of the Bill Clinton Admin where the Economy was good he came from the 2008 Great Recession, 2020 is called the Great Recession Pandemic

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RS aren't gonna do that they will lose WI in even more landslide than now in 24

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I previously said there is an Eday in 24 and they are not likely to hold their Supermajority l long anyways Baldwin not Johnson is on the Ballot in 24

With Biden back on the campaign trail any R attempts will be thwarted by voters in 2024

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They don't have a supermajority in the state assembly to override Evers or appointment of another judge that's why

Likely to lose their supermajority anyways in a Prez Eday

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wisconsin rejected a MAGA judge by a double digit margin? Based. It's too unfortunate ElectionsGuy has dropped out of the forum. Heck, this is his homestate.

Evers didn't lose and neither did Johnson because of AaRP and dynamics of a Midterm for Johnson, but Johnson is DOA in 28 regardless in a Prez yr and Baldwin is gonna beat Kleefish by 4 pts like the PVI will be 51/47

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis or Trump never had a chance in WI, MI AND PA ANY WAYS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why you can't just rely on bad Approvals to save your Party

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RS are gonna lose seats in WI state legislature in 24 anyways it's only temp they hold a two thirds majority they RS will still hold the majority but it won't be 2/3 rds, white Fems are the ones that carries D's over finish line

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be Baldwin v Kleefish anyways not Gallagher and Baldwin will win between 4/7 pts, but Kleefish was favored over Evers in a Midterm Environment just like Johnson won by a single pt over Barnes and will lose in a landslide if he chooses to run in 28 but Gallegher probably runs but still loses to a D, Sara Rodriguez LT Gov can run for Gov 26 or S 28

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would be bit cautious in coming to any conclusions on 2024 President race based on this result. Trump is flawed but he has his base and he is gonna do lot better than dan Kelly who seems to be a bad candidate...there were likely lot of Trump voters that voted for Janet on Tuesday and will likely vote for Trump again in 2024. Remember...Ron Johnson just won last November. Final margin in 2024 is likely going to be < 3 pts in either direction in Wisconsin..I would be surprised if it's more than that.

No one is making conclusions on the 2024 election based on these results but no, Kelly and Trump are both similar kind of bad candidates.

absolutely not..Kelly has now lost 2 statewide elections in Wisconsin by double digit margin which is super rare in Wisconsin whereas Trump won the state once by 0.7 points and lost the state by 0.7 points the other time. For your average voter, Trump is a better candidate than Kelly. Also federal race, especially a presidential race is gonna be lot more different than state Supreme Court race in Spring that was going to determine future of abortion rights/gerrymandering in the state.

Trump brings out the low propensity rural rednecks who love the hate he gives. They can’t get it up for a loser wannabe like Kelly.

Especially Johnson won and it can be argues about Vance and Budd on the DeSantis bump that benefitted all RS that's why they won those close races in NY Zeldin overachieved, that won't be there in 24 and 28 when Johnson runs for S

That's why Baldwin should be Kleefish by 4/7 pts and we flip the state legislature Johnson was losing before IAN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The users are doing the same thing about OH, NC and TX and MO now it's called blk Populated states and Obama and Clinton won many of these states and Carter anyways they just voted R for Prez again like MI, PA and WI did, in 2016, we can win TX Carter won the state in 1976, it's now more winnable than FL and KS is more winnable than IA now

The only States aren't in play are AR and TN, LA is in play with the Gov and KY Gov