Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Gass3268]

Madison did work today

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1641974824384774145?s=20

[walleye26]

Madison did work today

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1641974824384774145?s=20

That’s over 40,000 early votes by my count. Over 20% turnout in Madison.

Also, I think the reason WOW turnout is so high is because of the Senate 8th special election. It has Richfield and Germantown in Washington, Menominee Falls, Lannon, and parts of Sussex/Lisbon in Waukesha, and Mequon, Thiensville, and Cedarburg in Ozaukee. It also has Bayside, Whitefish Bay, Fox Point, and Brown Deer in MKE county.

[Orwell]

Madison did work today

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1641974824384774145?s=20

That’s over 40,000 early votes by my count. Over 20% turnout in Madison.

Also, I think the reason WOW turnout is so high is because of the Senate 8th special election. It has Richfield and Germantown in Washington, Menominee Falls, Lannon, and parts of Sussex/Lisbon in Waukesha, and Mequon, Thiensville, and Cedarburg in Ozaukee. It also has Bayside, Whitefish Bay, Fox Point, and Brown Deer in MKE county.

iirc those areas are Rich ash especially Whitefish

[walleye26]

Madison did work today

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1641974824384774145?s=20

That’s over 40,000 early votes by my count. Over 20% turnout in Madison.

Also, I think the reason WOW turnout is so high is because of the Senate 8th special election. It has Richfield and Germantown in Washington, Menominee Falls, Lannon, and parts of Sussex/Lisbon in Waukesha, and Mequon, Thiensville, and Cedarburg in Ozaukee. It also has Bayside, Whitefish Bay, Fox Point, and Brown Deer in MKE county.

iirc those areas are Rich ash especially Whitefish

Yes super rich. Whitefish is jokingly called “White Folks Bay” and Fox Point and Bayside are nice addresses to have too. They are now super liberal too.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1642308664697450496?cxt=HHwWgMCzre_B08...

Add another 2,000 out of Madison. Turnout will be interesting to see on Tuesday.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1642539929866498153?cxt=HHwW0sGzkaPXvM...

Madison added 642 early voters today, which brings them up to just over 42,000 absentee requests and nearly 36,000 returned (not including the ones showing up in the mail tomorrow and Tuesday, or dropped off at poll sites on Tuesday).

At 4pm on Feb 21st, there were just over 44,000 voters that had voted in Madison. Basically, in early voting alone Madison has equaled their turnout from 4pm of Election Day. That’s nuts. Election Day will be interesting for sure.

[sting in the rafters]

So this totally legal stream I'm watching the sixers-bucks game thru ran some ads during a 2nd quarter commercial break ab how Dan Kelly is "radically anti-abortion" and opposes all background checks. Pretty standard jawn from Ds at this point but nonetheless kinda shows where everyone's head's at w/r/t motivating base turnout.

[Nyvin]

So this totally legal stream I'm watching the sixers-bucks game thru ran some ads during a 2nd quarter commercial break ab how Dan Kelly is "radically anti-abortion" and opposes all background checks. Pretty standard jawn from Ds at this point but nonetheless kinda shows where everyone's head's at w/r/t motivating base turnout.

The Democratic incumbent for mayor of Green Bay is campaigning on abortion rights too, even though nothing in the mayor's office has anything to do with abortion policy or law.

I can't really blame them though, it is a winning issue for Dems, why not run with it?

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 preview: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/chicago-wisconsin-elections/

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So this totally legal stream I'm watching the sixers-bucks game thru ran some ads during a 2nd quarter commercial break ab how Dan Kelly is "radically anti-abortion" and opposes all background checks. Pretty standard jawn from Ds at this point but nonetheless kinda shows where everyone's head's at w/r/t motivating base turnout.

The Democratic incumbent for mayor of Green Bay is campaigning on abortion rights too, even though nothing in the mayor's office has anything to do with abortion policy or law.

I can't really blame them though, it is a winning issue for Dems, why not run with it?

I mean, abortion is an issue that actually exists. That puts it leagues above Republicans and their fake issues like CRT.

[Gass3268]

4/3/2023 Absentee Report



Dane County passed Waukesha County based on VAP Turnout %.

[Vosem]

My final prediction here is that Democrats win, just because they were up in the first round and the usual pattern in Wisconsin is that the general is more, rather than less, favorable for the left-wing candidate. That said the early-vote turnout patterns look extremely favorable for conservatives and if they still lose it's going to be because they did horrifically poorly among persuadable swing voters; like much worse than in 2022.

[wbrocks67]

My final prediction here is that Democrats win, just because they were up in the first round and the usual pattern in Wisconsin is that the general is more, rather than less, favorable for the left-wing candidate. That said the early-vote turnout patterns look extremely favorable for conservatives and if they still lose it's going to be because they did horrifically poorly among persuadable swing voters; like much worse than in 2022.

They're a tiny bit better for conservatives than the primary, but I wouldn't say "extremely favorable."

[Gass3268]

My final prediction here is that Democrats win, just because they were up in the first round and the usual pattern in Wisconsin is that the general is more, rather than less, favorable for the left-wing candidate. That said the early-vote turnout patterns look extremely favorable for conservatives and if they still lose it's going to be because they did horrifically poorly among persuadable swing voters; like much worse than in 2022.

Early vote patterns are better for conservatives than the primary, but worse than 2022.

[Gass3268]

Sounds like it's gonna rain most of the day tomorrow in Southern Wisconsin, thunderstorms starting in the afternoon, and maybe severe by the time polls close around 8 PM as of now. Thankfully a lot of votes were banked in the early vote period. Madison/Dane County folks will crawl over broken glass to go vote so I'm not too worried there, and any weather that complicates thing in Milwaukee will also do so in the WOW suburbs.

[SnowLabrador]

I'll go with Janet +2 for my prediction, but I would not at all be surprised to see Kelly win. If he does, WI-SEN 2024 is a tossup, tilting R.

[GeorgiaModerate]

With the election almost upon us, I just want to say a big thank you to Gass, walleye, and our other Wisconsin folks for the excellent updates throughout this campaign.

[Gass3268]

Sounds like it's gonna rain most of the day tomorrow in Southern Wisconsin, thunderstorms starting in the afternoon, and maybe severe by the time polls close around 8 PM as of now. Thankfully a lot of votes were banked in the early vote period. Madison/Dane County folks will crawl over broken glass to go vote so I'm not too worried there, and any weather that complicates thing in Milwaukee will also do so in the WOW suburbs.

Yet it also looks like there will be freezing rain in Northern Wisconsin, particularly along the Michigan border. Weather looks like it will be crap across the state.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

My final prediction here is that Democrats win, just because they were up in the first round and the usual pattern in Wisconsin is that the general is more, rather than less, favorable for the left-wing candidate. That said the early-vote turnout patterns look extremely favorable for conservatives and if they still lose it's going to be because they did horrifically poorly among persuadable swing voters; like much worse than in 2022.

Wisconsin is a weird swing state that is more Dem on the state level than the federal one (along with Pennsylvania)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My final prediction here is that Democrats win, just because they were up in the first round and the usual pattern in Wisconsin is that the general is more, rather than less, favorable for the left-wing candidate. That said the early-vote turnout patterns look extremely favorable for conservatives and if they still lose it's going to be because they did horrifically poorly among persuadable swing voters; like much worse than in 2022.

Wisconsin is a weird swing state that is more Dem on the state level than the federal one (along with Pennsylvania)

Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson in 2012, it just happens for some reason Johnson overpolls like Walker but in 28 it's not a Midterm it's a Prez race he is gone

Johnson running in 22 was favorable to him but not a Prez cycle

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My final prediction here is that Democrats win, just because they were up in the first round and the usual pattern in Wisconsin is that the general is more, rather than less, favorable for the left-wing candidate. That said the early-vote turnout patterns look extremely favorable for conservatives and if they still lose it's going to be because they did horrifically poorly among persuadable swing voters; like much worse than in 2022.

Which actually makes a lot of sense, because the issues that are being fought over for those swing voters are preserving gerrymandering and a pre-Civil War abortion ban. That's close to a worst-case scenario for the conservative side. It's like if the UK was on schedule to hold an election a couple years earlier and timing meant they'd have to hold one where the main issue was Liz Truss' tax proposal.

[Yoda]

4/3/2023 Absentee Report



Dane County passed Waukesha County based on VAP Turnout %.

Really hoping Milwaukee kills it in turnout tomorrow.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think I'd rather be Janet but only slightly.

A big question is who are all the WOW voters? If there's significant down ballot lag and they go to Kelly by like Walker-2018 numbers (unlikely), then Kelly would be favored, whereas if they skew more college educated and are almost a net wash, that's good for Protacewicz.

From the maps I've seen, the WOW county turnout seems to be coming from the inner-ring of suburbs which are closer but have still on net leaned R in recent cycles.

[Hope For A New Era]

Final prediction is Janet +4. In Dane We Trust.

[walleye26]

Alright folks, it’s wrapping up. Tomorrow’s weather for the entire state will be horse***t with some bull***t as a side. Southern Wisconsin from LaCrosse to Sheboygan could get hit with 60 mph winds, tornadoes, and hail. Central Wisconsin will get heavy winds and downpours, and north of highway 8 will see freezing rain, snow, and blizzard conditions. Blizzard and winter storm warnings are already out in the Duluth TV market (Douglas, Burnett, Bayfield, Washburn, Ashland, and Iron Counties). Link to alerts is here, from the Duluth TV station: https://www.wdio.com/weather-alert/

As a result, I’ve made a few minor tweaks to my election model. All counties that contain highway 70 and north (Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, Phillips, Vilas, Iron, Oneida, Ashland, Bayfield, and Douglas) I have subtracted two percentage points from turnout. I also subtracted 2 percentage points from Grant, Lafayette, Green, Rock, Walworth, Jefferson, Racine, and Kenosha Counties, as these are where we could see tornadoes. While Dane, Iowa, Crawford, Sauk, Columbia, Waukesha, Dodge, and MKE are also in the severe weather area, the storms are moving south to north so they wouldn’t be effected until the last hour or so of voting with minimal impacts. Also, Democrats have a lot of early banked votes up. I expect Election Day votes to lean R about 60/40 or so, so I added up the total number of votes in the aforementioned counties and multiplied it by 0.02 and then again by 0.2 (20% R-lean with a 2% drop) and then by my vote estimates to see how that would change things. The result: Kelly “loses” 1,233 votes due to weather. Additionally, I increased Dane’s turnout by 3% because of high amounts of early voting, which adds another 2,400 votes for Janet. My model ends up with Janet getting a margin of +62,359 votes. I also reduced my estimate from 1.44 million votes down to 1.41 million votes due to weather, meaning I have Janet winning by 4.4%, 52.2 to 47.8.

Counties won by Janet:
MKE: 63-37
Dane: 83-17
Rock 61-39
LaCrosse 60-40
Eau Claire 59-41
Portage 56-44
Sauk 57-43
Grant 51-49
Columbia 53-47
Douglas 57-43
Dunn 51-49
Pierce 51-49
Green 58-42
Door 53-47
Vernon 56-44
Trempealeau 55-45
Iowa 63-37
Jackson 52-48
Bayfield 57-43
Ashland 55-45 (bad weather reduces tribal turnout)
Richland 54-46
Crawford 54-46
Menominee 68-32

Largest Counties won by Kelly:
Waukesha 62-38
Brown 54-46
Racine 55-45
Outagamie 55-45
Kenosha 52-48
Washington 70-30
Marathon 58-42
Sheboygan 60-40
Walworth 59-41
Fond Du Lac 61-39
St Croix 55-45
Ozaukee 55-45
Dodge 65-35
Jefferson 58-42

Winnebago County TIED.