NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[ON Progressive]

Anybody know when the polling will resume?

[ON Progressive]

Anyway, all these numbers seem believable. I think it's more likely than not to get worse for Roskam (based on what my best friend has alluded to who works for him) and Rohrabacher. Possibly Bost too.

I hope they poll some of ME-2, CA-25, CA-39, CA-10, and VA-2 next.

What makes you think it would get worse for Rohrabacher and Roskam? In both cases, the undecideds seem to lean Republican.

IL-06: "About 11 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans."

It's currently 45 GOP - 44 DEM -11 UNDECIDED

CA-48: "About 10 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans."

It's currently 45 GOP - 45 DEM - 10 UNDECIDED  

Trump has a 40% approval in both of these districts and a 54% disapproval

In addition, Rouda and Casten have very high amounts of people who don't know them but a high net favorable.

Meanwhile, both Rohrabacher and Roskam net favourables are below water.

[ON Progressive]

MN-08 is too early to really be able to tell. As for KY-06, a narrow Barr lead isn't devasting news for McGrath. It's not like 3% (and this margin could certainly change) is insurmountable, and did anyone really think she was trouncing Barr by 15%?

Also, only 166 people still. I'd wait until at least 300 to really say anything significant about KY-06.

[ON Progressive]

I know there's not a lot, but I find it interesting that it seems like rural districts like MN-08 and IL-12 have better response rates than suburban districts like CA-45 and IL-06. Any theories as to why this is?

[ON Progressive]

A non-white 65+ year old man will save the day, as will the 30-44 year old white college grad woman who has Dem party ID but is registered Republican.

[ON Progressive]

Through 399 voters in MN-03, the poll looks like this:

Dean Phillips (D) 50
Erik Paulsen (R-inc) 43

I'd still wait until the poll is complete, but it won't move too much if the other live polls are to judge by.

[ON Progressive]

Through 399 voters in MN-03, the poll looks like this:

Dean Phillips (D) 50
Erik Paulsen (R-inc) 43

I'd still wait until the poll is complete, but it won't move too much if the other live polls are to judge by.

Not surprising really.

MN-03 seems like a more Democratic IL-06.

It isn't exactly shocking that Phillips is ahead for sure. Him being at 50 with 49% name recognition is pretty surprising though, especially since the incumbent has positive net favourables unlike IL-06.

[ON Progressive]

Please remember you all that Siena is pro incumbent

That makes the MN-03 poll even better for Dems than it is already, tbh.

[ON Progressive]

It's time to cut WV loose, and wish our candidates luck. Love ya Manchin, but for the good of the party and country, let's redirect all the party efforts and resources planned for Manchin to help put McCaskill and maybe another one or two over the top.

And...onto ignore you go.

[ON Progressive]

This is a methodological fiasco and a sad, shabby disgrace. Genuinely disappointed that there are any posters here who have taken this farce at all seriously.

These polls are perfectly fine methodology-wise. It’s just that idiots here can’t stop going nuts over tiny sample sizes.

[ON Progressive]

They aren’t using 2010 census’s data, they’re using the voter file.

[ON Progressive]

lmao @ that one guy who approves of Trump and is voting for Cruz in the Senate race calling himself an "UNDECIDED INDY"

[ON Progressive]

The response rate in TX-23 is absolutely awful. Not even 1%!

[ON Progressive]

There's a live poll in my WI congressional district RIGHT NOW, and they polled me!! Best day of the week thus far for me!!!

Which district?

If it's a live poll, WI-01.

[ON Progressive]

Ignore Democrats end up ahead in ME-02, would we be able to call our position there Golden?

[ON Progressive]

VA-07 has been amazingly stable. It's been at Brat +4 for a while and will almost certainly end there since these polls seem to stop at 500 and we're at 490.

[ON Progressive]

What is going on here?

[ON Progressive]

I had WI-01 as Lean R, if these results hold through the remainder of the poll it is clearly closer to Toss Up.

My district impressed me with this poll. These results actually spell trouble for Walker and the GOP if WI-01 is a close race. 48-46 is not bad for Democrats trying to flip a seat that has been occupied by the GOP for more than 20 years!

Especially considering Bryce is a flawed candidate and that this district voted Screnock by 5 while he lost statewide by a dozen.

[ON Progressive]

Why is the response rate so terrible in FL-26? I know it has a lot of Hispanics, but the Hispanics that are in FL have much higher turnout than TX-23.

[ON Progressive]

The ME-02 poll looks very bad, honestly. Golden has negative net favourables and he's down 6.

[ON Progressive]

Dems are doing surprisingly well so far in FL-26 considering the narrative was that Curbelo was an unbeatable titan like David Valadao and Will Hurd. Though it's still early, so I guess we'll see if it lasts.

The FL-26 poll is severely flawed for now. It's a 70% Hispanic (read: Cuban) seat but only 59% of the sample is Hispanic.

[ON Progressive]

Looking through the 57 undecideds in KS-02 microdata (I'm not good enough at math to weight, so these are unweighted):

Trump has a +7 approval (44-37). The GCB has a GOP lead, but there's 49% undecided on that among these 57 so I don't think it means that much, especially given Davis is overperforming the GCB here by a lot.

Davis has 25% to 19% favourables among these undecideds (57% have no opinion). 74% of those undecided have no opinion on Watkins, so I won't bother with the favourables. He is below water FWIW (not much).

[ON Progressive]

Anyway, this whole experiment I did was to prove a point, that these Siena polls dont have the best of methodology, and that looking deep into these to get senate numbers or figure out if Trump is gonna win the state in 2020 is foolhardy.

That also applies to anyone who would be doing that with even the best poll with the best methodology.

[ON Progressive]

So if you unskew the poll suitably, Finkenauer may "really" be up by more than 13 and perhaps her lead will keep climbing as they get more people in the 18-29 and non-white demographics.

I wouldn't expect too many non-white respondents though. It's a 93% white district.

[ON Progressive]

Is Torres Small a strong candidate? She has the lead even thiugh voters in the district want a GOP House by a 7 point margin and Trump's approval is 47% approve-47% disapprove. Or is Herrell weak?

Torres Small was already considered quite a strong candidate as far as I remember.