TX-SEN: True to Form

[ON Progressive]

MS is more likely to flip than TX

No it isn't. TX is much bluer than MS, and significantly more elastic. The only way MS is competitive is if McDaniel makes the runoff, but that isn't likely because McDaniel has far less support than 2014 from groups that helped him a lot in that race.

[ON Progressive]

MS is more likely to flip than TX

No it isn't. TX is much bluer than MS, and significantly more elastic. The only way MS is competitive is if McDaniel makes the runoff, but that isn't likely because McDaniel has far less support than 2014 from groups that helped him a lot in that race.

Only in Presidential Elections


Democrats have won statewide elections more recently in MS than they have in TX. Actually, I believe TX is the state which Democrats have gone longest in without winning a single statewide election.

The only Dem that ever wins statewide in MS is Jim Hood. Outside of him, MS might as well be TX in terms of statewide wins.

[ON Progressive]

you know if republican turnout is somewhat lower and beto doesn’t get absolutely demolished in the rural areas while maintaining/outdoing hillary’s margins in the triangle, he has a pretty decent chance

He definitely needs to outdo Hillary's margins in the triangle. Rural TX is not swingy at all, so Beto will get demolished there. He may do marginally better than Hillary in rural TX, but not significantly.

yes i mean by appealing to rural areas he could do less horribly than usual and lose by like less than 40 points instead of the high 40s

I don't know man... rural TX is super inelastic. It's not like the rural midwest / plains states that are elastic. Most of the democratic votes from rural TX are Latinos, who have low turnout in midterms.

I don't think Beto even gets a 5 point swing from rural TX, honestly. Maybe in rural border counties, but not in the rural panhandle.

What? TX-13, the panhandle sistrcit, literally voted for Clinton in 92! There is dem strength possible here.

1992 was an eternity ago in electoral politics. There's a ton of places that voted Clinton in '92, even by majorities, that just aren't winnable for Democrats anymore. The Dem coalitions between then and now are incredibly different.

[ON Progressive]

If Beto pulls it off this fall, Trump is DEFINITELY in trouble come 2020.

If Cruz somehow loses then I think Trump is not DOA, but bordering close to it. If those 38 electoral votes are tossup or Lean R instead of Safe/Likely R that changes the dynamics of 2020 in the Democrats favor. Trump could win the state in 2020 but it could come at the expense of spending and campaigning more there than a NC or a FL perhaps.

Drawing conclusion from an O'Rourke victory for 2020 would be a big mistake. Just because everything aligns perfectly in a Senate race doesn't mean the state has become competitive at the presidential level. Remember a Republican won Illinois in 2010.

Republicans won an unfortunate special election in Massachusetts too.

Massachusetts is more elastic than Texas, though. Democrats haven't won statewide in Texas since Ann Richards in 1990. Since 1990, Massachusetts has only had one Democratic governor.

Well, the Democrats haven’t won a senate race in Alabama for 25 years until they won with Doug Jones. And Texas votes in the left of Alabama so Texas is more winnable for the Democrats than Alabama is.

At the same time though, Jones' win was kind of a fluke based on Roy Moore being an alleged pedophile. Ted Cruz is a pretty reprehensible, unlikable person; but not to the point that he has  a major liability that is associated with him like Moore did.

I know this is the narrative that's taken hold in the Beltway Political Press, and it's true to a certain extent, but it's important to remember that:

1) Alabama Republican voters largely didn't believe the allegations against Moore
2) To the extent that they did believe them, the Right Wing Media Machine and Evangelical Pastors made excuses for his conduct
2a) Moore's most devoted supporters devolved to using the abortion crutch: OH YEAH MAYBE MOORE DOES DIDDLE LITTLE KIDS, BUT DOUG JONES SUPPORTS KILLING THEM IN THE WOMB!!! MUH ABORTION GENOCIDE!!!
3) The allegations distracted from Moore's positions on the issues, which are extreme even for Alabama, just like Cruz's are for Texas
4) Jones was actually a good candidate, and Beto is an even better one

LOL at the idea that Cruz's positions are extreme for Texas. Just shows you've been in D.C. too long. Jones called himself a "second amendment guy" whereas O'Rourke filibustered to block terrorist suspects from buying guns in 2016. Jones campaigned to protect Obamacare while O'Rourke claims he supports single payer. Beto is an inferior candidate to Jones.

You think any more than 10% of the electorate (that might actually be generous) actually vote on issues? LOL.

[ON Progressive]

If Beto pulls it off this fall, Trump is DEFINITELY in trouble come 2020.

If Cruz somehow loses then I think Trump is not DOA, but bordering close to it. If those 38 electoral votes are tossup or Lean R instead of Safe/Likely R that changes the dynamics of 2020 in the Democrats favor. Trump could win the state in 2020 but it could come at the expense of spending and campaigning more there than a NC or a FL perhaps.

Drawing conclusion from an O'Rourke victory for 2020 would be a big mistake. Just because everything aligns perfectly in a Senate race doesn't mean the state has become competitive at the presidential level. Remember a Republican won Illinois in 2010.

Republicans won an unfortunate special election in Massachusetts too.

Massachusetts is more elastic than Texas, though. Democrats haven't won statewide in Texas since Ann Richards in 1990. Since 1990, Massachusetts has only had one Democratic governor.

Well, the Democrats haven’t won a senate race in Alabama for 25 years until they won with Doug Jones. And Texas votes in the left of Alabama so Texas is more winnable for the Democrats than Alabama is.

At the same time though, Jones' win was kind of a fluke based on Roy Moore being an alleged pedophile. Ted Cruz is a pretty reprehensible, unlikable person; but not to the point that he has  a major liability that is associated with him like Moore did.

I know this is the narrative that's taken hold in the Beltway Political Press, and it's true to a certain extent, but it's important to remember that:

1) Alabama Republican voters largely didn't believe the allegations against Moore
2) To the extent that they did believe them, the Right Wing Media Machine and Evangelical Pastors made excuses for his conduct
2a) Moore's most devoted supporters devolved to using the abortion crutch: OH YEAH MAYBE MOORE DOES DIDDLE LITTLE KIDS, BUT DOUG JONES SUPPORTS KILLING THEM IN THE WOMB!!! MUH ABORTION GENOCIDE!!!
3) The allegations distracted from Moore's positions on the issues, which are extreme even for Alabama, just like Cruz's are for Texas
4) Jones was actually a good candidate, and Beto is an even better one

LOL at the idea that Cruz's positions are extreme for Texas. Just shows you've been in D.C. too long. Jones called himself a "second amendment guy" whereas O'Rourke filibustered to block terrorist suspects from buying guns in 2016. Jones campaigned to protect Obamacare while O'Rourke claims he supports single payer. Beto is an inferior candidate to Jones.

You think any more than 10% of the electorate (that might actually be generous) actually vote on issues? LOL.

Yes, actually I do.

Then you're ignoring tons of political science research that shows people vote on party ID, not issues. Roy Moore, of all people, won 79% of self-identified moderate/liberal Republicans and that was considered an atrocious performance.

[ON Progressive]

Good lord....Lying Ted is losing it:

Ted Cruz Says 'That's Great' to Supporter Who Suggests Sending Beto O'Rourke 'Back to Ireland'

O Canada,
Our home and native land....

Oh dear God no. We want absolutely nothing to do with Ted Cruz.

[ON Progressive]

Yeah i was gonna say....anyone expect this lawless administration and criminal Republican party to enforce any FEC laws is outta their mind

Were essentially governed by the mob

Especially since they're about to confirm a SCOTUS judge who thinks literally all campaign finance regulation is unconstitutional.

[ON Progressive]

Just amazing when Lyin' Ted brought up Republican support for civil rights in the 1960s and Dixiecrats opposition. He forgot where all the Dixiecrats went after that or he now compares himself to Everett Dirksen or Nelson Rockefeller while Beto gets compared to the pre-1972 George Wallace? Ridiculous.

It's also funny too given that TX had 1 Dem and 1 Republican Senator when the CRA and VRA were voted on.

The Democrat, Ralph Yarborough, voted for both. The Republican Senator, John Tower, voted against both.

[ON Progressive]

https://www.therealbeto.com/ lol

Oh f*** off, Ted Cruz. It's not like you're going to represent every demographic in your state either.

His hometown of Houston and Harris County will vote like 60% against him.

His home town will give him 0% of the vote since his home town is Calgary, Alberta.

[ON Progressive]

https://www.therealbeto.com/ lol

Oh f*** off, Ted Cruz. It's not like you're going to represent every demographic in your state either.

His hometown of Houston and Harris County will vote like 60% against him.

His home town will give him 0% of the vote since his home town is Calgary, Alberta.

So Democrats were busing illegals to vote for them all along! It's just that they were Canadians, not Mexicans

Why didn't they bus me then?

[ON Progressive]

Beto O’Rourke raised more than $38 million in the third quarter — about three times Ted Cruz’s haul

Wow...

$38 million kept out of the hands of democratic candidates who, unlike Beto, actually have a chance. Great news!

The vast majority of that money is from people who wouldn’t donate to anyone else, so this is hardly cannibalizing at all. Our Senate incumbents are raising far more money than they did 6 years ago. As Zaybay mentioned, we really don’t have many underfunded candidates that have a shot at winning anyway.

[ON Progressive]

Nope. Vast majority of it comes from safe blue seats in the east trying to flip Texas because they hate Texas and Cruz.

Besides your ignorant comments about "HATING TEXAS", you're actually agreeing with me here. A huge percentage of the $$ to Beto comes from people who are just excited for him. It's not like this $$ would be going to people like Kyrsten Sinema or Phil Bredesen if Beto didn't exist.

[ON Progressive]

O'Rourke will get 45-46% of the Vote and that isn't good enough to win Texas.

Obviously that won't win it, but it would be one of the best results a Democrat has gotten in Texas this century I'm pretty sure, if not THE best.

[ON Progressive]

Sweat Ted....sweat!

https://mobile.twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1058915208062734336

Feels like expectation setting

That's almost certainly what it is. The GOP did this in every congressional special this cycle.

[ON Progressive]

As for counter evidence, I point towards McBath over-preforming Ossoff, Abrams, Gillum. There's three right there.

Speaking of, remember when smoltchanov and a couple others said McBath had no chance after she won the primary runoff in July because she was too liberal for a Trump +1 seat and now she's very competitive?