TX-SEN: True to Form

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looking more like the TX Sen race is going to be a battleground this fall.

I still have a heard time seeing Cruz losing, but it does look like O'Rourke is going to at least make him sweat.

[libertpaulian]

If Beto pulls it off this fall, Trump is DEFINITELY in trouble come 2020.

[KingSweden]

If Beto pulls it off this fall, Trump is DEFINITELY in trouble come 2020.

Seriously, that’d be a red alert for the RNC

[ajc0918]

Cruz campaign getting into some trouble...


Ted Cruz campaign runs into issues with FEC

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https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Ted-Cruz-campaign-runs-into-issues-with-FEC-13038381.php

[Rookie Yinzer]

Whoa at O'Rourke's fundraising haul. Lots and lots of money for direct voter contact efforts, which is what they are really going to need to win this race.

[Zaybay]

Cruz campaign getting into some trouble...


Ted Cruz campaign runs into issues with FEC

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https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Ted-Cruz-campaign-runs-into-issues-with-FEC-13038381.php

Wow, this is terrible. Not because he will lose money, he should be fine on that front. Beto now has the perfect ammo for this race. Beto is taking no corporate money and going off small$ donations, while Cruz is in trouble for taking too much corporate money, 3 times. this has been a good summer for Beto.

[Doimper]

Cruz campaign getting into some trouble...


Ted Cruz campaign runs into issues with FEC

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https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Ted-Cruz-campaign-runs-into-issues-with-FEC-13038381.php

This reeks of desperation.

[libertpaulian]

Could you imagine the heads exploding at Faux, Breitfart, and DisinfoWars if America got Senator Beto O'Rourke AND Governor Stacey Abrams in the same night?!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I dont think Cruz is thinks hes gonna win easily. I think he is panicking. All of his actions are ones someone who was extremely vulnerable would take.
1. Not having a debate
2. Calling all possible doners
3. Not releasing internal polling
Hes not even airing many ads.

These are not really abnormal.

1) Trying to avoid debates is common for whoever is ahead and thinks they will win without a debate, especially for incumbents (because they don't want to give more attention to challengers). If anything, if Cruz thought he would lose, he would be the one asking Beto for a debate.

2) It is not surprising that Cruz is trying to raise money... True, Beto's fundraising is impressive and Cruz is doing his due diligence to try to counter that as best as he can, but it is not abnormal in any way for incumbents to be trying to raise money, and raising significant amounts of money...

3) Ads are usually most effective closest to the election. Sometimes candidates do run ads early, but very often they wait until closer to the election, and then let loose their barrage. This is no different from what e.g. Bill Nelson is doing in Florida.

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It is quite plausible (even obvious) that if Beto gets more name recognition, he will do better than if he has less name recognition. Cruz is aware of that.

But that does not mean that Cruz will lose if Beto gets name recognition, all it means is that Beto will do better than he otherwise would if he gets name recognition.

[Blair]

Ted Cruz isn’t like Thom Tillis or Roy Blunt, and won’t get caught sleeping at the wheel before panicking in September after doing f all.

He knows how to campaign well.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Cruz campaign getting into some trouble...


Ted Cruz campaign runs into issues with FEC

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Ted-Cruz-campaign-runs-into-issues-with-FEC-13038381.php

L-Y-I-N' Ted

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cruz campaign getting into some trouble...


Ted Cruz campaign runs into issues with FEC

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/Ted-Cruz-campaign-runs-into-issues-with-FEC-13038381.php

L-Y-I-N' Ted

[here2view]

If Beto pulls it off this fall, Trump is DEFINITELY in trouble come 2020.

If Cruz somehow loses then I think Trump is not DOA, but bordering close to it. If those 38 electoral votes are tossup or Lean R instead of Safe/Likely R that changes the dynamics of 2020 in the Democrats favor. Trump could win the state in 2020 but it could come at the expense of spending and campaigning more there than a NC or a FL perhaps.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Beto pulls it off this fall, Trump is DEFINITELY in trouble come 2020.

If Cruz somehow loses then I think Trump is not DOA, but bordering close to it. If those 38 electoral votes are tossup or Lean R instead of Safe/Likely R that changes the dynamics of 2020 in the Democrats favor. Trump could win the state in 2020 but it could come at the expense of spending and campaigning more there than a NC or a FL perhaps.

Drawing conclusion from an O'Rourke victory for 2020 would be a big mistake. Just because everything aligns perfectly in a Senate race doesn't mean the state has become competitive at the presidential level. Remember a Republican won Illinois in 2010.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Ted Cruz isn’t like Thom Tillis or Roy Blunt, and won’t get caught sleeping at the wheel before panicking in September after doing f all.

He knows how to campaign well.

Does he really though? He ran against a nobody in 2012, and he couldn't win the GOP primary vs Trump despite an impressive ground game, a far superior organization, and the RNC trying to rig the process for him and tilt the field in his favor, far more than the DNC did for Hillary.

[here2view]

If Beto pulls it off this fall, Trump is DEFINITELY in trouble come 2020.

If Cruz somehow loses then I think Trump is not DOA, but bordering close to it. If those 38 electoral votes are tossup or Lean R instead of Safe/Likely R that changes the dynamics of 2020 in the Democrats favor. Trump could win the state in 2020 but it could come at the expense of spending and campaigning more there than a NC or a FL perhaps.

Drawing conclusion from an O'Rourke victory for 2020 would be a big mistake. Just because everything aligns perfectly in a Senate race doesn't mean the state has become competitive at the presidential level. Remember a Republican won Illinois in 2010.

That's true, but Texas would be more Democrat friendly in 2020 than Illinois was Republican friendly in 2012, even if you take out the equation of Obama running. The demographics are more so there in Texas for Democrats than it was for Republican in Illinois.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If Beto pulls it off this fall, Trump is DEFINITELY in trouble come 2020.

If Cruz somehow loses then I think Trump is not DOA, but bordering close to it. If those 38 electoral votes are tossup or Lean R instead of Safe/Likely R that changes the dynamics of 2020 in the Democrats favor. Trump could win the state in 2020 but it could come at the expense of spending and campaigning more there than a NC or a FL perhaps.

Drawing conclusion from an O'Rourke victory for 2020 would be a big mistake. Just because everything aligns perfectly in a Senate race doesn't mean the state has become competitive at the presidential level. Remember a Republican won Illinois in 2010.

Republicans won an unfortunate special election in Massachusetts too.

[Blair]

Ted Cruz isn’t like Thom Tillis or Roy Blunt, and won’t get caught sleeping at the wheel before panicking in September after doing f all.

He knows how to campaign well.

Does he really though? He ran against a nobody in 2012, and he couldn't win the GOP primary vs Trump despite an impressive ground game, a far superior organization, and the RNC trying to rig the process for him and tilt the field in his favor, far more than the DNC did for Hillary.

He beat Dewhurst in the 2012 primary, when Dewhurst had the support IIRC of a lot of the GOP institutional support.

He ran the best campaign (bar Trump) in the 2016 campaign; he managed to win Iowa, he raised an absolute ton of money, and he managed to come 2nd in a field where he started around 6-7%.

As contrary as it sounds Cruz is a rather unlikable, and slimy character, whilst still being a good campaigner.

[MAINEiac4434]

If Beto pulls it off this fall, Trump is DEFINITELY in trouble come 2020.

If Cruz somehow loses then I think Trump is not DOA, but bordering close to it. If those 38 electoral votes are tossup or Lean R instead of Safe/Likely R that changes the dynamics of 2020 in the Democrats favor. Trump could win the state in 2020 but it could come at the expense of spending and campaigning more there than a NC or a FL perhaps.

Drawing conclusion from an O'Rourke victory for 2020 would be a big mistake. Just because everything aligns perfectly in a Senate race doesn't mean the state has become competitive at the presidential level. Remember a Republican won Illinois in 2010.

Republicans won an unfortunate special election in Massachusetts too.

Massachusetts is more elastic than Texas, though. Democrats haven't won statewide in Texas since Ann Richards in 1990. Since 1990, Massachusetts has only had one Democratic governor.

[UWS]

If Beto pulls it off this fall, Trump is DEFINITELY in trouble come 2020.

If Cruz somehow loses then I think Trump is not DOA, but bordering close to it. If those 38 electoral votes are tossup or Lean R instead of Safe/Likely R that changes the dynamics of 2020 in the Democrats favor. Trump could win the state in 2020 but it could come at the expense of spending and campaigning more there than a NC or a FL perhaps.

Drawing conclusion from an O'Rourke victory for 2020 would be a big mistake. Just because everything aligns perfectly in a Senate race doesn't mean the state has become competitive at the presidential level. Remember a Republican won Illinois in 2010.

Republicans won an unfortunate special election in Massachusetts too.

Massachusetts is more elastic than Texas, though. Democrats haven't won statewide in Texas since Ann Richards in 1990. Since 1990, Massachusetts has only had one Democratic governor.

Well, the Democrats haven’t won a senate race in Alabama for 25 years until they won with Doug Jones. And Texas votes in the left of Alabama so Texas is more winnable for the Democrats than Alabama is.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Beto pulls it off this fall, Trump is DEFINITELY in trouble come 2020.

If Cruz somehow loses then I think Trump is not DOA, but bordering close to it. If those 38 electoral votes are tossup or Lean R instead of Safe/Likely R that changes the dynamics of 2020 in the Democrats favor. Trump could win the state in 2020 but it could come at the expense of spending and campaigning more there than a NC or a FL perhaps.

Drawing conclusion from an O'Rourke victory for 2020 would be a big mistake. Just because everything aligns perfectly in a Senate race doesn't mean the state has become competitive at the presidential level. Remember a Republican won Illinois in 2010.

Republicans won an unfortunate special election in Massachusetts too.

Massachusetts is more elastic than Texas, though. Democrats haven't won statewide in Texas since Ann Richards in 1990. Since 1990, Massachusetts has only had one Democratic governor.

Well, the Democrats haven’t won a senate race in Alabama for 25 years until they won with Doug Jones. And Texas votes in the left of Alabama so Texas is more winnable for the Democrats than Alabama is.

At the same time though, Jones' win was kind of a fluke based on Roy Moore being an alleged pedophile. Ted Cruz is a pretty reprehensible, unlikable person; but not to the point that he has  a major liability that is associated with him like Moore did.

[BillyW]

There's a reason (actually several) why the democrats haven't won a statewide race in Texas in almost three decades. Yet, every cycle the Dems and the mainstream media convince themselves that this time is different. It's really, really different. This cycle the hated GOP will take a pasting, you just wait and see. Except it doesn't happen. Like never, ever. It won't this year either.

Beto will crash and burn just like all the rest for the last three decades. Texas will not elect a liberal democrat to the senate.

Here is an interesting trivia question. How many liberals has Texas ever elected to the senate? Answer - 1. In a special election in 1957 Ralph Yarbrough ran as unapologetic liberal and got 38%. In those days there was no runoff. Due to the nearness to the 1958 race he did not get a significant opponent in the dem primary. As 1964 approached, there was a developing donnybrook between the conservative and liberal wings of the democrat party. It got so contentious tha Pres Kennedy and LBJ flew to Texas to try to unify the factions. We all know how that trip ended in disaster. After the assasanation  none of the conservative Dems filed against him and he won in 1964. By 1970 his luck ran out and he lost to a more conservative Lloyd Bentsen. Thus ended the career of the only liberal senator ever elected in Texas.

I know some may think about LBJ. He certainly wanted to be liberal and was quite liberal as president. As senator, it's another matter. He ran in the 1948 primary as a FDR disciple and narrowly lost. However, his henchmen in south Texas stole enough votes in Duval county to be declared the winner. He did not make the mistake of running as a liberal in 54 and he worked very well with Eisenhower who was very popular in Texas.

Sorry for the length of the post. I love to talk about Texas politics and history. If any have not read the Robert Caro accounts of the JFK assasination and the 1948 dem primary, they are some of the best things you will ever read.

[cvparty]

There's a reason (actually several) why the democrats haven't won a statewide race in Texas in almost three decades. Yet, every cycle the Dems and the mainstream media convince themselves that this time is different. It's really, really different. This cycle the hated GOP will take a pasting, you just wait and see. Except it doesn't happen. Like never, ever. It won't this year either.

Beto will crash and burn just like all the rest for the last three decades. Texas will not elect a liberal democrat to the senate.

Here is an interesting trivia question. How many liberals has Texas ever elected to the senate? Answer - 1. In a special election in 1957 Ralph Yarbrough ran as unapologetic liberal and got 38%. In those days there was no runoff. Due to the nearness to the 1958 race he did not get a significant opponent in the dem primary. As 1964 approached, there was a developing donnybrook between the conservative and liberal wings of the democrat party. It got so contentious tha Pres Kennedy and LBJ flew to Texas to try to unify the factions. We all know how that trip ended in disaster. After the assasanation  none of the conservative Dems filed against him and he won in 1964. By 1970 his luck ran out and he lost to a more conservative Lloyd Bentsen. Thus ended the career of the only liberal senator ever elected in Texas.

I know some may think about LBJ. He certainly wanted to be liberal and was quite liberal as president. As senator, it's another matter. He ran in the 1948 primary as a FDR disciple and narrowly lost. However, his henchmen in south Texas stole enough votes in Duval county to be declared the winner. He did not make the mistake of running as a liberal in 54 and he worked very well with Eisenhower who was very popular in Texas.

Sorry for the length of the post. I love to talk about Texas politics and history. If any have not read the Robert Caro accounts of the JFK assasination and the 1948 dem primary, they are some of the best things you will ever read.

i like how u never say the reason
ah yes i remember when the democrats and the MSM were circle jerking to juggernaut wendy davis cuz we all knew she was really gonna be the one to #fliptxblue
also not everything stays the same forever! you can keep insisting that a democrat simply cannot by definition win muh red texas like w*lfric...until it happens

[Antonio the Sixth]

Expecting demographics to magically deliver Texas to Dems on a silver platter is dumb. So is assuming that things will always be exactly like they are right now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Expecting demographics to magically deliver Texas to Dems on a silver platter is dumb. So is assuming that things will always be exactly like they are right now.