TX-SEN: True to Form

[Indy Texas]

O'Rourke will get 45-46% of the Vote and that isn't good enough to win Texas.

45-46% isn't good enough to win an election in general unless there are more than two candidates.

[ON Progressive]

O'Rourke will get 45-46% of the Vote and that isn't good enough to win Texas.

Obviously that won't win it, but it would be one of the best results a Democrat has gotten in Texas this century I'm pretty sure, if not THE best.

[7,052,770]

Apparently these qualify as "attack ads".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvY_upr_4e4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWdkOH4HITI

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/17/beto-orourke-attack-ads-against-ted-cruz-start-air-texas/

I'm glad he's making an issue out of Cruz's excessively stupid and pointless government shutdown back in 2013.

[henster]

It would be better if he had a bunch of ads of people with pre-existing conditions attack Cruz over his votes, much more effective than him saying it.

[SCNCmod]

Beto really needs to stop with the hand held selfie style low budget ads.  Spend a little money and make the ads look like someone other than a 2nd grader put them together.  How can someone run such a flawless campaign- yet have such a horrible tv ad campaign?

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.federalbudgetinpictures.com/entitlements-to-consume-all-taxes/

Yep. Democrats running on fiscal conservativism?

This is basically all Cruz would have to do to squash those claims. Entitlements already consume > 80 percent of all expenditures.

[wbrocks67]

Beto really needs to stop with the hand held selfie style low budget ads.  Spend a little money and make the ads look like someone other than a 2nd grader put them together.  How can someone run such a flawless campaign- yet have such a horrible tv ad campaign?

It's supposed to be personal instead of cheap typical political ads. I'm sure some people find them endearing, tbh.

[SCNCmod]

Beto did a Great job in the CNN Town-Hall tonight.  I also think it could actually help winning some undecided voters (he did a good job of removing the "scare" that Republicans and  Cruz have tried to paint on Beto).

[wbrocks67]

Beto did a Great job in the CNN Town-Hall tonight.  I also think it could actually help winning some undecided voters (he did a good job of removing the "scare" that Republicans and  Cruz have tried to paint on Beto).

I mean, at this point it was a free commercial and all the exposure can't hurt.

[The Mikado]

O'Rourke will get 45-46% of the Vote and that isn't good enough to win Texas.

Obviously that won't win it, but it would be one of the best results a Democrat has gotten in Texas this century I'm pretty sure, if not THE best.

Current record for "closest statewide TX race in the 21st century" is 2002 Lt. Governor.

Dewhurst (R) 51.8
Sharp (D) 46.0

So...there is a solid chance that Beto ends up with the best result for a 21st century Democrat in Texas, and if he doesn't, he'll end up narrowly in second to that.

EDIT:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=48&year=2002&f=0&off=6&elect=0

This is Dewhurst/Sharp 2002. Imagine if Cruz/O'Rourke comes to that same 5.8% margin. The map would look so different in just 16 years. Sharp didn't carry Harris County! He won Dallas County by 3 points!

[Crumpets]

O'Rourke will get 45-46% of the Vote and that isn't good enough to win Texas.

Obviously that won't win it, but it would be one of the best results a Democrat has gotten in Texas this century I'm pretty sure, if not THE best.

Current record for "closest statewide TX race in the 21st century" is 2002 Lt. Governor.

Dewhurst (R) 51.8
Sharp (D) 46.0

So...there is a solid chance that Beto ends up with the best result for a 21st century Democrat in Texas, and if he doesn't, he'll end up narrowly in second to that.

EDIT:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=48&year=2002&f=0&off=6&elect=0

This is Dewhurst/Sharp 2002. Imagine if Cruz/O'Rourke comes to that same 5.8% margin. The map would look so different in just 16 years. Sharp didn't carry Harris County! He won Dallas County by 3 points!

Crazy that Sharp won King County - one of the single most Republican counties in the country currently.

[SCNCmod]

Videos from CNN Town Hall.  Probably definitely alleviated (to undecided voters at least) the Beto is too radical for Texas that Cruz has tried to paint.

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1053077562971299840

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1053066488981213185

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1053072248679084033

https://twitter.com/OutFrontCNN/status/1053068557976657920

https://twitter.com/OutFrontCNN/status/1053066614684274688

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1053062715281944576

[TML]

Videos from CNN Town Hall.  Probably definitely alleviated (to undecided voters at least) the Beto is too radical for Texas that Cruz has tried to paint.

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1053077562971299840

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1053066488981213185

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1053072248679084033

https://twitter.com/OutFrontCNN/status/1053068557976657920

https://twitter.com/OutFrontCNN/status/1053066614684274688

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1053062715281944576

Actually, this reinforces my main concern about O'Rourke - he's been too polite and hasn't attacked his opponent hard enough, even though his policy positions are progressive and not Republican-lite.

[SCNCmod]

Videos from CNN Town Hall.  Probably definitely alleviated (to undecided voters at least) the Beto is too radical for Texas that Cruz has tried to paint.

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1053077562971299840

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1053066488981213185

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1053072248679084033

https://twitter.com/OutFrontCNN/status/1053068557976657920

https://twitter.com/OutFrontCNN/status/1053066614684274688

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1053062715281944576

Actually, this reinforces my main concern about O'Rourke - he's been too polite and hasn't attacked his opponent hard enough, even though his policy positions are progressive and not Republican-lite.

I disagree in the case of Beto.  Dems often times get too caught up in attacking their opponent... that they don't let voters what they stand for themselves.  You could certainly spend every day attacking Cruz... then the average voter (who in most cases- barely follows politics)... will only know that you are against Cruz.  People voting for Beto... more than not, are voting for Beto... not just voting against Cruz.

I think the key is for Dems- as it applies to opponents... is to have an Strong Defense, not an Aggressive Offensive.  That is to say- Defend yourself strongly when your positions are mischaracterized, etc.  And Beto has done this- and did so last night.  (and you can do this without necessarily having an aggressive angry tone.  Obama was very good at this good Strong Defense type strategy).  

Granted - I also think it is important to set the record straight when your opponent is not being honest about an important issue (ie Josh Hawley in Missouri.. Airing an Ad saying he is going to protect pre-existing conditions... while also as atty gen or MO currently suing to have the ACA declared unconstitutional). But for the most part- Cruz will tell you what he is for... he just lies when he characterize what Beto is for.

Overall- Tone is important if you what moderate Republicans and Independent (who may agree with some of the policy positions) to actually hear what you are saying.  And progressives have to be savvy enough to let Dems have a moderated tone when they need a wider audience to hear their message.  Republicans have become pretty good at this notion... Dems needs to as well, so it will not be so easy for Republican to brand them as out of touch, etc.

BYW- on a side note, this morning FOX summed up the Beto Town Hall by simply saying.... Beto was questioned about Dems being unhappy he is taking money away from other candidates and he reaffirmed that he wanted to Impeach Trump.  

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I like Beto, but he's too liberal for Texas, and literally concedes nothing on those points, he's probably not going to win Texas that way.

[Indy Texas]

O'Rourke will get 45-46% of the Vote and that isn't good enough to win Texas.

Obviously that won't win it, but it would be one of the best results a Democrat has gotten in Texas this century I'm pretty sure, if not THE best.

Current record for "closest statewide TX race in the 21st century" is 2002 Lt. Governor.

Dewhurst (R) 51.8
Sharp (D) 46.0

So...there is a solid chance that Beto ends up with the best result for a 21st century Democrat in Texas, and if he doesn't, he'll end up narrowly in second to that.

EDIT:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=48&year=2002&f=0&off=6&elect=0

This is Dewhurst/Sharp 2002. Imagine if Cruz/O'Rourke comes to that same 5.8% margin. The map would look so different in just 16 years. Sharp didn't carry Harris County! He won Dallas County by 3 points!

It was a different time. And in earlier elections, Harris County was often one of the few counties that the Democrats didn't win.

Ex. In 1978, future Secretary of State James Baker ran for attorney general against future governor Mark White.

It was 55.6% White, 44.4% Baker.

[The Mikado]

My point was that this "different era" was just 16 years ago and that that 2002 Texas map far more resembles one from the 1970s or 1980s than a map of the 2010s, even, like, 2012 Presidential.

[Devout Centrist]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.federalbudgetinpictures.com/entitlements-to-consume-all-taxes/

Yep. Democrats running on fiscal conservativism?

This is basically all Cruz would have to do to squash those claims. Entitlements already consume > 80 percent of all expenditures.

Lmao, as if voters care

[7,052,770]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.federalbudgetinpictures.com/entitlements-to-consume-all-taxes/

Yep. Democrats running on fiscal conservativism?

This is basically all Cruz would have to do to squash those claims. Entitlements already consume > 80 percent of all expenditures.

People support entitlements. Grandpa earned that check.

[DataGuy]

I don't think Beto's townhall will have much effect on the final outcome. The head-to-head debate got most of the attention. The townhall is sort of an afterthought that most voters probably don't even know, or much less care, about. I have not seen any prominent discussion of it in any major Texas news source. If Beto is going to meaningfully gain ground, he must somehow flip current Cruz supporters, and the vast majority of Cruz folks probably don't even watch CNN.

Besides, I really don't see much persuasiveness in what Beto said. He was seemingly trying to straddle the line and have it both ways. He strongly support the 2A but opposes the NRA? He opposes open borders but doesn't want a wall? Indecisive positions usually just end up pleasing nobody and dissatisfying everyone. Beto himself used to talk about that, when he said "all you find in the middle of the road are yellow lines and dead armadillos." His campaign strategists must have convinced him to abandon his own advice, even though the "moderate Democrat" tack has always failed in Texas.

Based on the way he's been behaving recently (going on the attack against Cruz, toning down his unapologetic liberalism), I think his internal polls must be showing some pretty bleak numbers.

[henster]

I like Beto, but he's too liberal for Texas, and literally concedes nothing on those points, he's probably not going to win Texas that way.

Starting to slowly come to terms that Beto is not a good candidate. Running as a bold progressive and refusing to moderate or even appear moderate to voters. Terrible ads and refusing to run decent negative ads which are needed to define your opponent. DUI, sketchy family businesses etc. Not to say any Dem would be coasting to victory right now but I think Beto will underperform fundamentals relative to a generic type Dem.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think Beto's townhall will have much effect on the final outcome. The head-to-head debate got most of the attention. The townhall is sort of an afterthought that most voters probably don't even know, or much less care, about. I have not seen any prominent discussion of it in any major Texas news source. If Beto is going to meaningfully gain ground, he must somehow flip current Cruz supporters, and the vast majority of Cruz folks probably don't even watch CNN.

Besides, I really don't see much persuasiveness in what Beto said. He was seemingly trying to straddle the line and have it both ways. He strongly support the 2A but opposes the NRA? He opposes open borders but doesn't want a wall? Indecisive positions usually just end up pleasing nobody and dissatisfying everyone. Beto himself used to talk about that, when he said "all you find in the middle of the road are yellow lines and dead armadillos." His campaign strategists must have convinced him to abandon his own advice, even though the "moderate Democrat" tack has always failed in Texas.

Based on the way he's been behaving recently (going on the attack against Cruz, toning down his unapologetic liberalism), I think his internal polls must be showing some pretty bleak numbers.

Beto and Bredesen are running underdog campaigns in conservative states. They are only expected to win on electionday. With the Latino turnout in TX which is 6% and black turnout 6% Beto feels he.can overcome Cruz 5 point lead. Dems only need TN, TX and or MS to tie or take majority. If Johnson and Toomey overcame polls on election day so can Dems

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jwharris/status/1054202010482941953

[junior chįmp]

Whos a good boy....Ted's a good boy

https://www.twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1054445896954470401

[Florida Man for Crime]

Beto's campaign has knocked on 580,339 door to get out the vote so far.

Interestingly, they let you see exactly how many doors they have knocked on in each precinct in Texas. Very cool map:

https://win.betofortexas.com/?source=plantowin