Predict Bevin's margin of victory

[Politician]

10-15%, but I wouldn't be surprised by 5-10% or 15-20%. There was no need to include that troll option at the end.

Do you really think Beshear will do worse than Gray? LMAO, just ignore that Beshear is stronger than Gray and Bevin is way more unpopular, not to mention it is a Gubernatorial Race.

I think he'll do a bit better than Gray. Gray lost by 14 points, which is on the upper end of my 10-15% prediction. I actually do think that even if Beshear does a bit better than Gray he's going to win less counties. In fact, I'm predicting the only counties he wins are Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin.

You're ignoring two important factors here too.

1) Rand Paul was/is a completely terrible and godawful fit for the state who embarrassed himself in his presidential run, plus had the temerity to criticize Kentucky's God Emperor.

2) Kentucky's hatred for Democrats increases exponentially every year. They hate Democrats even more in 2019 than they did in 2016. I don't know why you all obsess over winning deep red states. They hate all Democrats. They hate you. They hate me. They hate Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, or whoever else you like politically. They despise the Democratic Party and everything it stands for. GET OVER IT! The "WWC #populist " obsessed Atlas posters are like the jilted ex that still obsesses over and begs their ex to give them another chance, even though their ex hates them with every fiber of their being and wants absolutely nothing to do with them ever again.

1)Rand Paul is not wildly popular, but his approval has been pretty solidly above ground in Kentucky for his whole tenure.

2)I generally agree with your sentiment, but I feel I can make a strong case that Bevin's unpopularity has brought back a lot of ancestral Democrats into our local coalition, especially in eastern KY. We picked up 8 seats in the Kentucky state house, 2 in the Senate. Almost every single one of them was Trump 80+% Trump.

I'm pretty sure Democrats net lost seats in the KY Senate and only gained 2 seats in the House.

[Politician]

Updated prediction: Bevin wins by 2 points.

Bevin loses the following counties: Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin, Elliott, Rowan, Bath, Menifee, Wolfe, Carroll, and Marion.

[Politician]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Look, I understand "racist hicks" is your shtick, but can you please explain to me how a governor with a -19 approval rating in an off-year running for re-election is safe to get it?

McConnell IS inevitable, though. It's a Senate race and he's a much better campaigner than Bevin.

[Politician]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Look, I understand "racist hicks" is your shtick, but can you please explain to me how a governor with a -19 approval rating in an off-year running for re-election is safe to get it?

McConnell IS inevitable, though. It's a Senate race and he's a much better campaigner than Bevin.

Muhry Fallin was at 80% disapproval and Kevin Stitt was underwater in 2018 and yet Republican retained the governorship by double digits. Andy Beshear would be relying on exactly the same types of Demosaurs in Kentucky that failed to flip D in sufficient numbers in Oklahoma just last year.

He's already forgotten about The Inevitable Kevin Stitt.

There's just one problem with that comparison: Stitt had above water approvals.

[Politician]

Between 6 and 10 percent.

Here's a better question, would Adkins do better compared to Beshear?

Yes. He's pro-life (removes one of Bevin's best lines of attack) and provides much-needed strength in coal country.

[Politician]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

Yeah, Paul still beat a strong opponent by 14%, and he didn't exactly embrace Trump with open the way that Bevin will. That's not to say that Trump will give him a 25% boost, but allying himself fully with Trump will help in a lot in the areas where he's "unpopular."

You’re missing the forest for the trees here: Paul was and is far more popular than Bevin will ever be. And yeah, allying himself fully with Trump will surely guarantee Bevin’s success in a gubernatorial election, just ask Governor Kris Kobach.

I’m not denying that Kentucky is an incredibly difficult state for Democrats to win these days, but I really don’t buy that Bevin’s reelection is a done deal no matter what.

Kansas is significantly less Republican than Kentucky, and do you think the Cincinnati suburbs or Oldham county are going to start voting as heavily Democratic as the KC suburbs did in KS-GOV? Or do you honestly think that Elliott county is going to vote against Bevin? Yes, there are examples of Democrats winning in places Trump won handily, but Kentucky seems like one of the last places to do so. McConnell was just as unpopular as Bevin in 2014, and he won by 15% all the same.

Honestly? I think he will lose Elliott and a few other counties that Jim Gray carried in 2016. Having <30% approval in a governor's race where there are many registered DINOs is probably enough for these people to come back temporarily for someone like Edelen or Beshear. To be clear though, I think Democrats will continue to lose it by large margins in congressional and presidential races.

Lol yeah, I see no realistic scenario where Bevin loses to a Democrat but I can see him losing Elliott even if it won’t be by much. Manchin was able to eke our a narrow win in its ideological twin McDowell County one last time last year, so I think there’s still time for local Dems to notch a couple more wins before it’s completely gone

True, but Manchin overperformed Clinton by 45% in WV. I don't see the Democratic candidate overperforming Clinton by more than 25% in KY. I could see Elliott county being a narrow win for Bevin, but I don't see it going Democratic.

Elliott county voted well to the left of McDowell County even in 2016. In addition, Hal Rogers (an institution in Eastern KY) won Elliott by less against a sacrifical lamb than Miller did McDowell against #Populist Ojeda.