Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Progressive Pessimist]

What’s the matter with this country?

We finally get a leader who isn’t a total nutjob after 4 years of lunacy and he’s underwater in approval.

There are two reasons for this:

1. His Democratic base of support is not cultlike in their support for him, and he does deserve some criticism for his administration's actions. And simultaneously his opponents' opinions of him are baked in and immovable.

2. In being that supposed competent, sane President succeeding a volatile one, expectations are unrealistically high for him to overcome the nation's many compounding challenges. Americans are impatient in addition. And that impatience plus those unrealistic expectations are leading to him being in an Obamalike situation. This country clearly hasn't learned. The only real benefit Biden has that Obama didn't is polarization. Just because Biden is unpopular doesn't necessarily mean that Trump's image has been rehabilitated or that another Republican alternative is necessarily going to defeat him in an election or be more popular than him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden is letting others define his presidency. He needs to start going on the offensive.

That's a pretty good distillation of what seems to be going on. It does seem like he's been at the mercy of everyone else at this point.

Say what you will about Trump meanwhile but even when he was in this sort of situation he didn't act like it. Call it arrogance, blister, or hubris; but Americans bought into it as a sign of "strength."

Biden hasn't utilized the bully pulpit nearly as efficiently. At least not yet. He really should, and he especially should start going scorched Earth on the Republicans and their blatantly obvious agenda of undermining everything he does for cynical reasons. I see no harm in that anymore, and he probably should have done it more in the 2020 campaign.

Maybe if the infrastructure bills get past things will get better for him. He can at least brag about doing something Trump never managed to after four years and hundreds of "Infrastructure Weeks."

[Progressive Pessimist]

In other news, the percentage of voters who think both parties suck seems to be increasing. And no, I was not polled myself.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/575312-majorities-again-view-both-parties-unfavorably-gallup

Here's my honest take on that: 2 viable political parties are just not enough to depict the entire political spectrum of a country as large and diverse as America. You always have too many people who actually don't belong in the same party. That's why I'm increasingly in favor of switching to a parliamentary system with 4-5 political parties. Our current system has outlived itsself and needs a complete overhaul.

At the same time though, I can't see Americans tolerating the backroom deals like those that go on in parliamentary systems to determine legislative majorities when more than two parties are involved. It would be a real "careful what you wished for" situation that would probably just cause a different type of cynicism. So we're f***ed no matter what.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Could it be? Is ripping on Quinnipiac polling something that everyone, regardless of their politics, can agree on?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden is at 50 approve, 49 disapprove in the new cnn poll

But this isn’t great for dems as a whole

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1448320710942904339

I guess we better hope for an Obamacare situation with the bills. When Americans experience tangible effects from it, it may become much more popular. But that likely won't happen when Democrats need it to for their electoral prospects.

As for the idiots who think their lives will be worse off, I can only assume that they are Republicans who will never appreciate getting expanded broadband or whatever else from the bills. They're beyond reaching, and I don't really care, as frustrating as it is.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden is at 50 approve, 49 disapprove in the new cnn poll

But this isn’t great for dems as a whole

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1448320710942904339

I guess we better hope for an Obamacare situation with the bills. When Americans experience tangible effects from it, it may become much more popular. But that likely won't happen when Democrats need it to for their electoral prospects.

As for the idiots who think their lives will be worse off, I can only assume that they are Republicans who will never appreciate getting expanded broadband or whatever else from the bills. They're beyond reaching, and I don't really care, as frustrating as it is.

Assuming anything even passes. 

I do think we'll get something. I just don't know what or when.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Oct. 9-12, 1500 adults including 1266 RV


Adults:

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 50 (+2)

Strongly approve 17 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 38 (+1)


RV:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+2)

Strongly approve 19 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

GCB (RV only): D 45 (+2), R 37 (+1)

Those GCB numbers are showing that the Republican party is still hated, while the Democrats are disliked. People are frustrated by the lack of progress of the Biden administration, but they would not vote for the Republicans in 2022.

I am getting a 2002 vibe for 2022.

I guess when you look at the parties in a vacuum, even with the Democratic infighting, they're still at least trying to accomplish something practical. Meanwhile the GOP are making complete asses of themselves as their base keeps showing up at school board meetings and raving like lunatics about the two Big Lies regarding the pandemic and voting.

But we can't assume that Democrats are going to maintain their lead in the generic ballot. For whatever reason they have been doing okay in it thus far, but those undecideds are eventually going to back the GOP more and they'll probably reach a floor of about 44-47%. Sure, Democrats may get some of those undecideds too, but to get even a neutral year out of the midterms Democrats probably need to win the national popular vote by at least four or five points, and that may not end up occurring. It's the typical structural disadvantage that Democrats always have.

I’m starting to think maybe Biden is the Macron of America.
Think about it, both were underdogs at first who arguably got very lucky (Biden in the primaries, Macron from the start up to the first round) and then managed to win against a far right populist with a coalition of suburbanites and disgruntled leftists.
The main difference is that Macron actually won in a relative landslide, but I attribute that to France being still less polarized than the US.
Now, both are very unpopular. If you think Biden isn’t unpopular, you are a hack. (And if you think Macron isn’t unpopular, you have time travelled back to 2017) However, both do appear to be leading in polls (well for Dems it’s the GCB) The accuracy of these polls obviously can be questioned.

The Trump Le Pen comparison might work as well. Le Pen has been the likely opponent against Macron for a while (although that could be changing) and Trump is essentially the likely opponent if he chooses to run again (let’s be honest, he will)
Idk random thoughts but it’s clear Biden isn’t the next FDR, although I still am unsure about the Carter comparison given the differences.

I’d say he is more like the next LBJ. Good ideas however a foreign policy event beyond their control brings their approvals down

LBJ got stuff done.

So is Biden. American rescue plan (providing stimulus checks to 85% of Americans), Covid vaccination rollout, buy American act, American families act, Paris climate accord, cancelling keystone XL pipeline, recognizing indigenous peoples, averting a government shutdown, $15 minimum wage for federal contractors, cancelling $11.5 billion of student loans etc.

That is true. But he and the Democrats need to do more to remind people of that. Another big disadvantage the Democrats have is that Americans' memories are pathetically short.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Florida:

www.victory-insights.com

 
(D) Favorability by Candidate

We asked poll respondents if they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Biden,
Harris, DeSantis, and Trump, and several key patterns emerged. First of all,
DeSantis had the highest favorability (55%), followed by Trump (52%), Biden (51%),
and Harris (47%). DeSantis also had the highest “Very Favorable” percentage (42%),
as well as the lowest “Very Unfavorable” percentage (35%), indicating he’s in a
strong position in his home state. Harris, on the other hand, had the highest “Very
Unfavorable” percentage and the lowest “Very Favorable” percentage, indicating
that she maintains very low popularity in the state.

https://victory-insights.com/files/FLPresidentialPoll_Sep2021.pdf

This is not an approval poll, but favorability is usually close to approval at this stage. Biden lost Florida in 2020, so if he is above water in Florida he is almost certainly  above even nationwide,.
 

But it's Florida. You can't take any of their polls at face value.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Youngkin slightly ahead now, so is the blue wall cracking

Well, no.  538 average:

McAuliffe 48.5%
Youngkin 45.6%

It's certainly possible that Youngkin could win, but he has consistently been slightly behind in the polls throughout the campaign.

He is talking about the Trafalgar poll, I think. Which just makes his statement even more nonsensical. They are only accurate in very specific states when Trump is on the ballot, and Virginia was never one of those states.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1448745775912169473

Caveat: coming from disgraced G. Elliott Morris.

A lot of these issues appear to be because he has been lamed ducked.

You can definitely point to the Delta surge concurrent with the Afghanistan withdrawal as the point where Biden's popularity declined.

But I can't say I'm surprised by this since Independents always seem to hate the party in government. It's almost what defines them politically more than anything. They are never satisfied and sometimes I hate them more than Republicans because they serve as enablers or underminers, or both at once.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden needs to make his presence known and do something for the people. I'm sure there are some executive orders he could sign, why is he not taking advantage of that power like Trump and Obama?

he has a town hall on CNN tonight. Maybe he can salvage some good-will from it? I doubt the moderators or questioners will be particularly easy on him, but it's something, I guess. You can only do so much when dealing with one of the most irrational populace's on Earth.

I don't know, his only hope probably is just signing those damn bills. And I don't know how much that will actually be worth before their effects are felt.

We really might be in the American equivalent of the Weimar Republic at this point.

[Progressive Pessimist]

ARG economic survey (monthly), Oct. 17-20, 1100 adults including 992 RV

Adults:

Approve 47 (-3)
Disapprove 47 (+1)

RV:

Approve 47 (-4)
Disapprove 48 (+2)

FWIW, it's also all-time low for Biden in ARG.

Wow. Is the bottom coming out for Brandon?

Brandon?

Don't ask.  It's a right wing nut job joke referring to Biden.

It's about as clever as "libtard."

[Progressive Pessimist]

A 45% approval at this time as several pollsters place it would put him ahead of Reagan, Clinton and Obama.

I would say there’s an outside chance we may see something close to a landslide in ‘24 against Trump if inflation recedes further and the economy is perceived to be good on Election Day. I have no doubt this will be controversial but there are many blaring red alarms for the GOP at this time and there has been no effort to fix any of the things currently causing it.

We're still too polarized for landslides to happen anymore. Best case scenario: Biden wins with the 2020 map plus North Carolina and between 5 and 5.5% in the popular vote.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Let's hope that a good monthly jobs report, positive inflation news (should it happen), and a competent response to Ian can keep the ball rolling, or improve his standing more as we draw closer to the midterms.

[Progressive Pessimist]

538's RV/LV model shows Biden with his best disapproval since March 12, and his best approval since October 21, 2021.

Maybe we can erase the Dirty Crooked Media's assassination of Biden's approval following Afghanistan withdrawal by Election Day!

I don't think it will ever be that high again, but maybe could at least come close should jobs reports like the one we had today continue, positive inflation news, and braving the inevitable increase of gas prices again due to the OPEC f***ery. From all that a decent enough midterm result for a sitting President could also help keep him in good graces.

Regardless, the fact that he has recovered how he already has so far from the incredibly low point earlier in the summer is remarkable.

[Progressive Pessimist]

ISTR some people here saying Biden would be in the low 30's by Election Day.

Remember when SnowLabrador said Dobbs would help the GOP?

He was wrong. But it is starting to look like it's going to be a wash now at best. And that's what I had predicted and always feared. I entertained the notion that it could save the Democrats to some extent this year, but alas that was far too presumptuous because we can never be granted with good luck with the proper timing for when we actually need it the most.

[Progressive Pessimist]

ISTR some people here saying Biden would be in the low 30's by Election Day.

Remember when SnowLabrador said Dobbs would help the GOP?

He was wrong. But it is starting to look like it's going to be a wash now at best. And that's what I had predicted and always feared. I entertained the notion that it could save the Democrats to some extent this year, but alas that was far too presumptuous because we can never be granted with good luck with the proper timing for when we actually need it the most.

Dobbs did help Ds. Inflation is several times higher than 1994 and 2010 and yet the Democrats lead the GCB.

It doesn't looks like that's going to hold up...

[Progressive Pessimist]

ISTR some people here saying Biden would be in the low 30's by Election Day.

Remember when SnowLabrador said Dobbs would help the GOP?

He was wrong. But it is starting to look like it's going to be a wash now at best. And that's what I had predicted and always feared. I entertained the notion that it could save the Democrats to some extent this year, but alas that was far too presumptuous because we can never be granted with good luck with the proper timing for when we actually need it the most.

Dobbs did help Ds. Inflation is several times higher than 1994 and 2010 and yet the Democrats lead the GCB.

It doesn't looks like that's going to hold up...

Why? Dems are at +0.8, same as last week.

Have you not been reading the generic ballot thread in the Congressional elections sub-forum? It seems like we're getting a lot of movement to the GOP from undecideds in several consecutive generic ballot polls, and I am not so sure that boosted Democratic enthusiasm and turnout based on reproductive rights can avert that when November 8 comes around.

[Progressive Pessimist]

ISTR some people here saying Biden would be in the low 30's by Election Day.

Remember when SnowLabrador said Dobbs would help the GOP?

He was wrong. But it is starting to look like it's going to be a wash now at best. And that's what I had predicted and always feared. I entertained the notion that it could save the Democrats to some extent this year, but alas that was far too presumptuous because we can never be granted with good luck with the proper timing for when we actually need it the most.

Dobbs did help Ds. Inflation is several times higher than 1994 and 2010 and yet the Democrats lead the GCB.

It doesn't looks like that's going to hold up...

Why? Dems are at +0.8, same as last week.

Have you not been reading the generic ballot thread in the Congressional elections sub-forum? It seems like we're getting a lot of movement to the GOP from undecideds in several consecutive generic ballot polls, and I am not so sure that boosted Democratic enthusiasm and turnout based on reproductive rights can avert that when November 8 comes around.

But without Dobbs it would be much worse. Just because you aren't winning doesn't mean there isn't something helping you.

It could be worse, but it's still going to be one of the worst results possible.

[Progressive Pessimist]

ISTR some people here saying Biden would be in the low 30's by Election Day.

Remember when SnowLabrador said Dobbs would help the GOP?

He was wrong. But it is starting to look like it's going to be a wash now at best. And that's what I had predicted and always feared. I entertained the notion that it could save the Democrats to some extent this year, but alas that was far too presumptuous because we can never be granted with good luck with the proper timing for when we actually need it the most.

Dobbs did help Ds. Inflation is several times higher than 1994 and 2010 and yet the Democrats lead the GCB.

It doesn't looks like that's going to hold up...

Why? Dems are at +0.8, same as last week.

Have you not been reading the generic ballot thread in the Congressional elections sub-forum? It seems like we're getting a lot of movement to the GOP from undecideds in several consecutive generic ballot polls, and I am not so sure that boosted Democratic enthusiasm and turnout based on reproductive rights can avert that when November 8 comes around.

But without Dobbs it would be much worse. Just because you aren't winning doesn't mean there isn't something helping you.

It could be worse, but it's still going to be one of the worst results possible.

No? Without Dobbs and with Morse nominated in PA it's entirely possible the Dems would have gotten knocked down to 45 seats.

Losing the Senate at all, should it happen, which I am feeling forced to contend with again, would still be devastating. The number only matters when it pertains to how much of a buffer Democrats could have in 2024.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden is now higher than Reagan was at this point in his presidency lol

Old School Republican in shambles.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Enjoy this brief resurgence while you can, because Biden's own Documentgate is now going to derail everything.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Enjoy this brief resurgence while you can, because Biden's own Documentgate is now going to derail everything.

I hope you’re joking, no doubt the media will make a bigger deal of this than any of his policies and compare this to what trump is doing even though they are being handled completely differently, but I doubt this will hurt Biden too much

No. I am not joking. The only scandal that could have been worse would be if Biden had a phone call with Democratic Secretaries of State that implicates him in having them changed votes after all or made another phone call where he thanked Zelenskyy for protecting Hunter and that military aide to Ukraine was tied to that.

There is nuance to this situation in comparison to Trump, but that won't matter in having even the slightest resemblance to one of the biggest presidential scandals ever. Republicans can muddy the waters now and keep using this to distract and "what about?" It's going to be a dark cloud hanging over Biden from here on out, and he isn't nearly popular enough or able to get by enough on favorable, stable conditions in the country for Americans not to give at least some attention to it. Sure, things are improving, but they sill aren't good enough. And the GOP knows this and will not let anyone forget, no matter how the story develops going forward, even if it does turn out to be a nothing-burger after all. They now have something more substantial than Hunter's laptop or "weaponizing the Justice Department" to investigate and cry corruption and hypocrisy about.

The consistent thing for them, after how they reacted to Trump's infinitely worse version of this scandal, would be to say "it wasn't a big deal when Trump did it, so it's not a big deal for Biden to do it." But we're talking about the Republican Party here. They are never consistent and have no shame.

The only slight silver lining is the timing of this not occurring like Clinton's email server investigation. At least this isn't interfering with an important election like last year's or next year's (hopefully), so maybe it can become old news and be completely straightened out before the 2024 campaign begins. But the timing of learning about the documents has become a scandal in itself too, supposedly being intentionally concealed until after the midterms.

I hope to be wrong, but these are my suspicions. And honestly, maybe in putting them out there the universe will respond in a way that makes my premonitions moot, much like with my apprehensive predictions about last year's midterms.

I just can't help but expect the worst, especially after things were going so suspiciously well for awhile.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Even though Biden is close to even approval nationwide, Monmouth says he is actually underwater by 2 points in blue New Jersey because independents disapprove of him by 25: https://newjerseyglobe.com/polling/new-jersey-still-mixed-on-biden-monmouth-poll-shows/

Maybe the anti Dem swing in 2022 in greater NYC was not an anomaly…

It's not like he has any chance of losing the two states in 2024, but it does seem like the Democratic Party as a whole is declining significantly in perception in them. We'll see how my state's elections go this year, but I am anticipating yet another weak election cycle for Democrats. New Jersey simply hates incumbent parties, both nationally and statewide; and it remains a state where Republicans still turn out better in off-year elections.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden is officially back?

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1613398525617864706

Until the media squeezes every drop possible out of Documentgate when it catches up with him.