Israel-Gaza war

[Agafin]

I've just seen the tweet from Corbyn and holy crap, it seems like people were actually right about him. It was not a witch hunt or anything of the sort, Corbyn truly is an anti-semitic, anti-western, pro-communist sympathizer. How did he ever manage to become the leader of labour?

[Agafin]

It's certainly a disgrace. We (the western world and its liberal values) will pay a high price for it

https://twitter.com/mattduss/status/1713210261996462512?t=bM7yVJGecfofH5zcd3hd5w...

This is dumb. Those regimes will say that no matter what.

[Agafin]

Even if the IDF story is true (and I am inclined to think they did not target the hospital "for the lulz" but otherwise i have honestly no idea what happened), the damage done to the West's reputation is becoming incalculable purely because we have swathes of politicians eager to "stand with Israel" while giving a guy like Netenyahu, even reviled in his own country, an endorsement on any story he produces and any potential war crime the IDF commits. This is mana from heaven for Putin and Xi in Muslim countries [all while the regimes of these peoples are dysfunctional messes that cause emigration and none of them bother bringing up the case of the  Uyghurs, which is a systemic slow burn genocide as opposed to a bloody COIN operation] and will fast spread to other theatres.

https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1714535960615039302

Israel has more than enough capacity to deal with this threat, we should have purely focused the PR on humanitarian aid and avoiding civilian deaths, removing terror organsiations, etc. We could always support Israel in a more subtle manner. Instead its become a "Clash of Civilizations" style rhetoric that will cost us dearly.

As someone from the so-called "Global South", there is pretty much nothing that the "West" can do to be popular again here, I witness it (it's declined popularity) daily and I really don't think the "West" should even bother to try and change it. While there are valid reasons for it's declining popularity (at least in the case the Africa), there are also a lot of stupid reasons and in some cases, the West would need to take some unnaceptable positions (such as being anti-LGBT or supporting Russia in its war with Ukraine) to be viewed more positively, so it's pointless.

[Agafin]

Hamas terrorists: We were told 'whoever brings a hostage gets $10,000'

Israel's Shin Bet security service and Police force jointly interrogated six detainees from Gaza who participated in the destruction and mass murder of October 7, 2023.

The footage from the interrogation was released on Monday and showed selected clips from six separate interrogations.

Each terrorist had a slightly different experience, but Israeli intelligence forces noted a number of common themes. All the Hamas agents were given explicit instructions to kill and kidnap civilians including the elderly along with women and children. While they did this, their commanders stayed behind in Gaza.

...

One of the terrorists told Israeli forces that "whoever brings a hostage back [to Gaza] gets $10,000 and an apartment."

They said that the plan had been to take over the towns they attacked and hold positions there once they had finished killing and kidnapping the residents.

...

The video released by the Shin Bet and the police shows the various Hamas operatives going into extreme detail about their activities on the morning of October 7. "The instructions were to kidnap women and children," said one. Another described an encounter with a dead body, saying: "Her body was lying on the floor. I shot her, and my commander yelled at me for wasting bullets on a dead body."

They made it clear that when it came to murder, they were not to distinguish between civilians and soldiers.

...

At the end of the video, each of the Hamas agents was asked if what they did was permissible in Islam. They all answered the same way: "No. Islam does not permit the killing of women and children."

This is so sad to me. I'm normally one of the most anti-hamas/Palestine person there is but this video kinda humanised these militants to me, which I assume wasn't the intention of the article. But like, how deep can the brainwashing really be? How could they possibly buy into the whole $10000 or the appartment bullcrap? And if they know it's against Islam, why do it? Even putting religion aside, how did they justify all of it to themselves? They seem to understand that killing civilians is bad, and even have remorse but some of the videos that were shot onsite almost seemed to show those people enjoying the killing.

Up until this point, I honestly imagined most hamas militants as raging lunatics, cartoonishly evil and sociopathic, and their actions on October 7 is consistent with that. But at least 2 or 3 of the people interviewed here look like they'd actually be capable of being good persons if things were different. They seem capable of telling good from bad or having empathy, and seem to be ashamed of their actions. The disconnect is so strong that I'm honestly wondering if this isn't just an act. Are they just sad that they got caught but would go right back to doing something "forbidden by islam" if they were freed? Or have they been tortured by the IDF to pretend to be sorry? Hard to tell.

[Agafin]

WSJ reports that Israel agrees to delay Gaza ground offensive. 

They won't have as much suport for it later so perhaps its put off for good?

[Agafin]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1723060216629977157

I honestly fail to see why Israel should care about that. If the US and most of Western Europe stays on Israel's side, what consequence would befall it if the so called "Global South" despises it? I mean, isn't that already the case?

[Agafin]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1723060216629977157

I honestly fail to see why Israel should care about that. If the US and most of Western Europe stays on Israel's side, what consequence would befall it if the so called "Global South" despises it? I mean, isn't that already the case?

If support for Israel drops amongst the electorates of democratic countries, over time that will have an effect on governments who rely on their support.

Is there a sign of that happening so far?

[Agafin]

Hamas's attack and the subsequent IDF response flipped the table.

I've read your entire post and yet I fail to see how this statement could be true. How can anyone look at Gaza and think that it is in a better position than on Oct 6? The strip is now divided in 2 for crying out loud, half of it is just ruins. If I were to put my shoes in a gazan's, all I would realise is that there is exactly 0% chance that Israel ever accepts them as their neighbours. And that surrounding arab countries (most notably, saudi Arabia) don't give a sh*t as they clearly value their relations with the US and even Israel, more.

Also, the fact that Hamas has accepted a 1:3 ratio for the release of hostages seems like an admission of failure to me. We are a far cry from the 1000:1 from a decade ago, or their demand of every palestinian prisoner from October 7. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Israel has arrested more palestinians since Oct 7 than have been released since the prisoner/hostage swap was reached.

[Agafin]

Israel has set up pumps in Gaza for flooding Hamas tunnels with seawater — WSJ

Israel has readied plans to flood Hamas’s system of tunnels under the Gaza Strip with water pumped from the Mediterranean Sea, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Citing US officials, the report says the Israel Defense Forces last month set up five large water pumps near the al-Shati refugee camp in Gaza City, which are capable of flooding the subterranean network within weeks by pumping thousands of cubic meters of water per hour into the tunnels.

The officials say Israel alerted the US about the plan last month, but has not yet decided on whether to implement it.

According to the report, opinions in Biden administration were mixed, with some officials expressing concern about the Israeli plan while others say they back Israel’s efforts to destroy the tunnels and say there isn’t necessarily any American opposition.

Among the concerns cited in the report were potential damage to Gaza’s aquifer and soil, if seawater and hazardous substances in the tunnels seeps into them.

Interesting. This would probably be the "final solution" to the hamas problem.

[Agafin]

Why should maintaining a Jewish majority even be a factor? Nobody cared about maintaining a white majority in Rhodesia or South Africa. Israel should be held to the exact same standard.

If I were jewish, I honestly wouldn't be fine living in any middle eastern country other than Israel. The jewish majority, and liberal democracy being important reasons why.

[Agafin]

For WHITE people I understand why they might see Jews under the lenses of white guilt because of the racially motivated massacre and genocide they as whites committed against them in first half of XX Century. However if you put yourself in the shoes of anyone who is NOT white, from their perspective the social difference between Jewish people and the average White person in the West is basically non-existent.

If in those "not white" group, you are including arabs from the MENA region then they have no leg to stand on given that they all basically ethnically cleansed their jewish populations. The only difference between them and their white counterparts from Europe is that the latter at least recognizes their wrongdoings to jewish people.

[Agafin]

TOP 20 GOVERNMENT DONORS TO UNRWA IN 2022*
Donor   Contribution US$ *
USA   343,937,718
Germany   202,054,285
EU   114,199,150
Sweden   60,969,987
Norway   34,180,677
Japan   30,152,202
France   28,909,838
Saudi Arabia   27,000,000
Switzerland   25,534,028
Turkey   25,199,080
Canada   23,713,560
Netherlands   21,189,038
UK   21,158,281
Italy   18,033,970
Denmark   15,885,970
Australia   13,797,995
Spain (including Regional Governments) **   13,592,803
Belgium (including Government of Flanders)   12,558,653
Kuwait (including Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development)   12,000,000
Qatar   10,500,000



Looking at this table, it seems really bizarre how western countriess (and Japan) effectively provide over 90% of the funding to UNRWA. How come arab nations are so loud in criticizing the west but can't even do the barest minimum to help the palestinians. I mean, ok people said they won't accept palestinian refugees because they don't want  to encourage ethnic cleansing, fair enough. But what about this? You really mean to tell me that the rich petro states of Qatar and Saudi Arabia can spend billions of dollars on stupid ostentatious projects but can only contribute $10-$25 million here?And what about China? Where is that Global South solidarity? Holy hell is this table crazy. Palestinians accusing USA and Germany of supporting genocide when they (palestinians) are effectively being fed and taken care of by those two is quite something.

[Agafin]

For me, personally, any deal where Hamas remains in power in Gaza is unacceptable, and I would consider it immoral to accept such a deal.  For the Jews, such a deal inevitably means more death and suffering.  For the Palestinians, such a deal makes a future repeat of the conflict inevitable as Hamas will undoubtedly seek to reignite it by all means at their disposal.  Furthermore, taking the Palestinians into consideration, a Hamas-controlled Gaza means the continuation of sanctions, closed borders and Israeli suppression of their state (as is necessary to prevent Hamas from becoming too powerful) and also makes a two-state solution impossible.

If you are pro-Israel, you should be demanding Hamas surrender and leave power.  If you are pro-Palestine, you should also be demanding Hamas surrender and leave power.  Not only because it's a necessary condition to secure the ceasefire you supposedly want, but also because it's vital for the future humanitarian and state interests of the Arabs currently living in the Gaza Strip.

I agree with you 100%, any deal with Hamas still in power in Gaza is worse than no deal, it is actively harmful to palestinian interests. Netanyahu is a massive douchebag to be sure but he needs to hold the line here. It needs to be made clear that terrorist attacks have consequences for the perpetrators.

[Agafin]

It might also be an optics thing. If Russia or China vetoes it (which is actually pretty likely), then the USA won't be the only country having vetoed a "ceasefire" resolution.

[Agafin]

The UN finally managed to pass a ceasefire résolution as the US abstained. Though it did make it much less radical than some supporters of Palestine would've liked.

[Agafin]

This seems like something extraordinary. When was the last time the US refrained to use veto power on an issue regarding Israel?

It was in 2016, a UN resolution condemning the settlements in the West bank and the US also abstained just like now. I remember it very well because it was the year I started following US politics. Obama was already a lame duck at that point as it was shortly after Trump's election. Netanyahu was pissed and Trump made it clear he'd reverse it once inaugurated.

[Agafin]

Israeli military reduces troops in southern Gaza, spokesperson says

JERUSALEM, April 7 (Reuters) - The Israeli military has withdrawn all ground troops from the southern Gaza Strip except for one brigade, a military spokesperson said on Sunday.

The military did not immediately provide further details. It was unclear whether the withdrawal would delay a long-threatened incursion into the southern Gaza city of Rafah, which Israeli leaders have said is needed to eliminate Hamas.

The withdrawal comes as Egypt prepares to host a new round of talks aimed at reaching a ceasefire and hostage release deal.

Looks like the long awaited ceasefire is finally here. Interestingly, the fact that this is only in the South makes it clear that the strip might be permanently split.

[Agafin]

Bibi should invade Rafah and fast. Time is running out.

[Agafin]

I think Israel has stopped giving a f-k about the International Community other than the ones who already back them (chief of which the US, of course). Probably a wise move at this point.

[Agafin]

I think Israel has stopped giving a f-k about the International Community other than the ones who already back them (chief of which the US, of course). Probably a wise move at this point.

And what happens when we get to the next generation of Democratic Party leadership that will inevitably become President after election 2028 or 2032 or 2036 which is considerably less pro-Israeli? Obama which reflects the next generation was hardly gung-ho Israel. Biden, Schumer et al are done in leadership before this decade ends due to aging out, and diehard hawks the likes of Gottheimer are never winning an open presidential primary. That's the problem with putting all your eggs in one basket.

Well they are probably gambling that the next generation of democrats will still be nominally pro Israel at the very least. Even Obama that you used as example is still more pro Israel than anti Israel. I honestly can't even think of a potential 2028 democratic nominee who is anti or even neutral on Israel/Palestine and has a chance of being nominated.

And anyway, what other choice does Israel have at this point? They simply can't beat the Hamas PR wing.

[Agafin]

I think Israel has stopped giving a f-k about the International Community other than the ones who already back them (chief of which the US, of course). Probably a wise move at this point.

Putting all your eggs in the US basket is surely a hostage to fortune though.

Not just the US. More like the Anglosphere + the EU. The US, UK, Australia and Canada are unlikely to ever become too anti-Israel. And then you have Germany, Austria, Hungary and the Czech Republic who would veto any EU bill that is too antagonistic to Israel. That's about half of the global economy right there. Israel will be fine. Oh and there's also India which is pretty pro-Israel too ( well, the 1 billion or so Hindus living there anyway).

The rest of the so called "Global South" is a lost cause for Israel. There's nothing they can do to be popular with some of those countries short of ceasing to exist.

[Agafin]

The IDF's problem isn't that they're bad on offense, it's that they're have a conscript army that's designed to win a conventional war as quickly as possible using overwhelming firepower so they can be demobilized ASAP. Against huge, unmotivated conscript armies like those of Syria or Egypt this strategy worked great, but groups like Hezbollah and Hamas have learned that "Shock and Awe" can be beaten by waiting out the "Shock" underground and stretching out combat as long as possible. The IDF can't maintain the initial level of firepower for months if not years even with unconditional American support so if their enemy doesn't surrender they don't really have a solution besides blowing up civilian infrastructure in hopes that they get demoralized.

I really don't understand your point here is supposed to mean? Of course fighting a conventional war is easier than an assymetrical one. Hamas could easily be destroyed by the IDF but that would require them actually carrying out the genocide of gazans (the real one, not what twitter leftists call genocide).

[Agafin]

Yeah and Putin could have easily destroyed the Ukrainians with a nuclear strike. Is this proof that Putin is a merciful soul, that the Russian Army is a model of humanitarian conduct and that we should send Putin billions of dollars worth of weapons to make sure he wins without nuking anyone?

Nice try but no, Ukraine vs Russia is a conventional war, not an asymmetrical one. The Russian army or any other one would find it just as hard to neutralize a Hamas-like militant group while limiting civilian casualties.