2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

It will be fun seeing all the hot takes on atlas when Mark Kelly loses the primary in a landslide while Ruben Gallego takes over 80% of the primary vote.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Gallego will win the primary 80-20.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I like how we managed to get two A-list Democrats running in Arizona but we can't find even a B-lister in CO, NC, MT, IA, ME

The Speaker of the House and (at least) two gubernatorial candidates are publicly considering runs.

This doesn't even include Susan Rice.

I assume you are referring to 2018 gubernatorial candidates?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Ultimately, I think McSally will outrun Trump slightly, and Trump will do better in Arizona than he will in whatever ends up being the tipping point state.

However, McSally is still very much an underdog, considering how the national environment of 2020 is shaping up.

If Trump wins re-election, McSally is guaranteed to also win.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

McSally really doesn't want to be a Senator any more

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1131665578811371520

Is she intentionally trying to lose or what?

Maybe she's been set up to take the fall in 2020 so Ducey can run for the seat against Kelly in 2022.

That'd be an incredibly risky gamble for a number of reasons, like Ducey's popularity very easily could crater over the next four years and Donald Trump could conceivably win re-election while McSally loses, and the odds would definitely be on Kelly retaining his Senate seat in that situation.

The chances of this happening are precisely 0%.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This race will be the tipping point.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This race will be the tipping point.

Disagree. If Democrats can’t even beat McSally, they’ve already lost the Senate.

Lose AL
Gain CO
Gain ME
Gain NC
AZ tipping point.