UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Even after the biggest landslide, when everything seems most hopeless, there is no majority on earth so large that it necessarily takes 2 or 3 cycles to dislodge.

Belated, but Campbell Newman says hi.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Rudd's currently too preoccupied brown-nosing Albo in the vain hopes of becoming US Ambassador.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The more Tories try the hackneyed imitations of Australian refugee ““policy”” the more I’m convinced Lynton Crosby truly doesn’t understand British politics and has just got lucky copying Australian tactics.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

His big UK success was 2015, when the Tories got lucky with the "Great Scots Scare" - without that it is doubtful they would have won an overall majority, at least.

And of course he then promptly got exposed with his disastrous 2017 campaign for May. Looking back the tactics were pure NSW politics. Where he cut his teeth after all.
And his protege and 2019 architect Isaac Levido is also an Aussie! (I know his country home town well lol). Though I doubt he’ll get a spot in the Lords or an AO given now quickly he outstayed his welcome.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

As well as losing their advantage on the economy, the Tories have alienated their base by failing to stop the Channel boats and not cutting the overall levels of immigration. Now that Brexit is done, anti-immigration voters aren't getting what they hoped for from the Tories. If the Tories were going to ditch their economic promises, they at least had to be good at the culture war. That, plus all their other problems, mean there are a lot of right-wing voters who don't like the government.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

So it was never more than five until recently? Slightly surprising if so.

It would be interesting to know the record number in, say, Australia (which had a few PMs with even shorter tenures than Liz "Jane Grey" Truss)

There's only been 6 or 7 living ex-PMs for the last decade in Aus. You'd really think there'd be more but before having 7 PMs in last 15 years we had 4 PMs in 32 years.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Fraser died less than a year after Whitlam, so its quite possible the latter was also alive when this photo was taken (even if, given his age, not able to actually attend)

Nope, this photo was taken at Whitlam’s memorial service. Only reason they managed to assemble them together.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

It’s seemingly based off this silly data set from the ONS, which isn’t quite so random. The distinction between coastal cities and coastal towns accounts for the weirder exclusions.

Coastal towns in England and Wales: October 2020

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Apparently Plymouth is no longer a coastal city, according to that map, which might present a bit of a problem for the Royal Navy.

Cities don't count - thus Brighton and Bristol are also excluded, but Bournemouth gets in.

Cities according to the data set posted by ASV above are excluded.  So Swansea, Sunderland and Southend are included, as they don't meet the ONS's population criteria for being "cities".  Hull West & Hessle is included because Hessle is counted as a separate town (as I speculated above), Hove is included because of Portslade (even though, unlike Hessle, it's within the official city boundaries), and so on.

In line with the previous towns article, to qualify for inclusion in the towns list, population must have been below 225,000 in 2011 (according to the Census) with the town boundaries used being either built-up area boundaries or built-up area subdivision boundaries. The coastal towns that are included in the article are shown in Figure 1.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I was struck this past weekend during the interview circuits how brazenly shameless Starmer is as a politician, how he's likely to be the next PM but also that it's a really big weakness going into a GE to be known as someone who either won't commit, or will drop specific policy pledges without blinking.

He has no beliefs.

Looking in from outside, it does have a touch of déjà vu. 🇦🇺

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Meanwhile, the wreckers have learned nothing.

We need to cut Taxes and let Kate Middleton solve child poverty instead of the DWP is fairly on brand for the Mail.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I'm sure this has been answered before, but I was looking over the election results from 2010 to 2019 I had written down on a piece of paper, and it dawned on me that the Conservatives have been in government but will have had four different leaders in four consecutive elections:

2015: David Cameron
2017: Theresa May
2019: Boris Johnson
202?: Rishi Sunak (probably)

Has this ever happened anywhere in the world with a party in government before?

New South Wales at current!

2011: Barry O’Farrell
2015: Mike Baird
2019: Gladys Berejiklian
2023: Dominic Perrottet

Edit: Nick Greiner in 1991 was the last time a NSW Liberal leader faced a second election btw.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I’m sure Johnson would enjoy the symbolism of being PM twice a la Churchill as well (albeit as with all Johnsonian-Churchillian comparisons, repeating history as farce).

For all the symbolism a Kevin Rudd comparison would be far closer to the mark if it eventuates.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

And with a similar end result, if he's lucky.

The ultimate end result too? Lobbying to become UN Secretary General then getting Ambassador to US when your party comes back to gov to shut you up?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

What I've found interesting in recent years is how the once 'reputable' right wing press have trashed themselves by choice. In the US you can argue there was some market demand for our but given sliding sales and online engagement, everything from constant TERF pieces, to Roald Dahl, to obsessions over Meghan... you're finding a more reasonable, in terms to what issues actually matter to most people, outlook in the red tops.

I say by 'choice'. There's some proprietary or editorial pressure on the scales of course.

My pet theory is that this is down to declining circulation - it's no longer possible to run it with the pretence it's a commercial enterprise, so the only reason to own a broadsheet is that you want a pulpit that regurgitates your opinions back to you. Their audience has changed from the readers to the proprietors.

The Daily Mail found out a way out of it by appealing to American audiencies that don't have a major right wing national newspaper.

And Australian audiences. Though we’ve always had more than enough right-wing rags, instead they built on their female skewed British readership to become *the* source of online news for Ozzie middle aged women. A gap that’s long existed in the market thanks to Murdoch’s penchant for macho macho men to run his Aussie tabloids. Really it’s supplanted the place of our women’s magazines, most notably (Packer’s) Women’s Weekly.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The first people we need to deport are these moronic Australian political advisors.

Given the UK's getting our slogans ~9 years late, I eagerly await Rishi/Boris/Leader TBD spending the entire general election campaign screeching about Jobs and Growth. I wonder if they can top Turnbull accidentally quoting slogans from Veep (continuity and change!)

Bogans in the mortgage belt are the key to the classic bellwether electorate of Dartford. They are against an Indigenous Voice [i.e. devolution, because Indigenous = Celtic] but they bought into Mediscare after seeing Jeremy Hunt's performance.

Inside the Teal Wave: How Climate Independents flipped Kensington & Chelsea with Ben Goldsmith (?)'s money

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Bogans in the mortgage belt are the key to the classic bellwether electorate of Dartford. They are against an Indigenous Voice [i.e. devolution, because Indigenous = Celtic] but they bought into Mediscare after seeing Jeremy Hunt's performance.

Inside the Teal Wave: How Climate Independents flipped Kensington & Chelsea with Ben Goldsmith (?)'s money

Speaking of people named Goldsmith, the Teal Wave was foreshadowed in Richmond Park in 2016 surely?

More akin to the No Aircraft Noise party giving the Deputy Premier-elect a right old scare in Marrickville '95.
(Ben Goldsmith felt like a decent enough stand-in for Simon Holmes à Court, in case context is lacking)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Emily Maitlis interviewed a "polling expert" this week who announced that you can reverse-engineer election results from the past three local elections, and cited the 2021 local elections as a surefire sign that Labour can't expect to lead the vote share by more than a few percentage points. Because no realigning events have occured since May 2021...

Absolutely correct, that’s why our Aussie friends in NSW have just delivered a landslide victory to the Coalition after a terrible by-election result for Labor in Upper Hunter in 2020.

Tbf we’ve still held Upper Hunter lmao. Shades of Ripon 2018, amidst an urban shellacking a rural seat on a wafer thin sun 1% majority just doesn’t budge. And indeed most of the rurals don’t budge either.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Woah

Edit: Apparently they're searching Murrell & Sturgeon's house - they've set up a gazebo as a control centre on Sturgeon's front lawn.



There's also a major police presence at SNP HQ this morning. Police Scotland have confirmed they are conducting simultaneous searches in the inquiry (Operation Branchform) this morning. Over a dozen officers have been filmed entering the premises.  

Blimey, it looks like a murder scene.

https://twitter.com/ConnorGillies/status/1643625464739553282
Uhhhh… are we sure it isn’t..? Or did Murrel bury his hard drive and financial records under the patio?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/The_TUC/status/1646464949441507328

What on earth is in the water in Haverfordwest?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Johnson: typically Boris claimed to be a fan of all the London clubs.

OK so things might be a bit different in the UK where it feels like half of all teams are London based, but if someone says they are a Yankees and Mets, Dodgers and Angels, Cubs and Whitesox, etc. fan, I guarantee you they are just the worst person.

Though at least he's consistent about that, you can find photo ops of him for basically every london team there is. Even Millwall lol.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

JK Rowling having a normal one.


https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1667936348701966338

[AustralianSwingVoter]

There are a lot of reasons to be critical of Zac Goldsmith, but the line about Sunak's lack of interest in environmental issues is spot on.

He's an odd character. Originally seen as a fresh, liberal face of conservatism (despite sharing his father's views on the EU) he then ran a baiting campaign for London Mayor. Always been an environmentalist. One of Johnson's most staunch allies. Lacking in charisma and personality despite being telegenic and articulate (in this sense he reminds me of the current Heir to the Throne, who also has an eccentric father as it happens).

And a good reminder that Australian style politics doesn’t always work…

I don't think it's ever worked, yet is a constant playbook

It may always fail but this time it will work!…

[AustralianSwingVoter]

That said, we aren't Canada or Australia either: the extractive industries are going to be a different factor for centre left parties in those countries in a way they are not for Britain (well, England and Wales anyway).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In other news I see Boris has named his new child Frank Alfred Odysseus. Of all the Greek classics to choose?