2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is Tipernani still ahead in AZ?

She's narrowly down. Again, her race depends on where the outstanding ballots are in Maricopa. If Fountain Hills/North Scottsdale/Cave Creek are what dropped, she's fine--but if it's a representative sample including Paradise Valley/South Scottsdale she's screwed.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

After Chatham, should Clayton be enough to put Biden over the top in GA?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Just one note on Trump's narrative. If you're trying to push the "rampant voter fraud" narrative, it's probably not a good idea to also push the "polls were totally wrong" narrative. When polls are way off and there's voter fraud, it tends to be on behalf of the person who outperformed their polling, not the other way around.

That's far too complex of a concept for them to grasp.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So Far MA was a Bidenslide even in the rural parts. Not sure how late ballots trend. However most actual Urban areas in MA swung towards Trump, we could see a closer PV than expected if this holds true.



https://twitter.com/richparr79/status/1324362497164496899

https://twitter.com/skoczela/status/1324364398975176705

This could also mean there was depolarization lol.

Those places have large Hispanic populations.

I'm less sure what's going on with those random R-swinging towns in the Berkshires, but they're very WWC.

Overall I'm happy that the Massachusetts realignment of 2016 did not continue.

What’s happened to the Democratic electorate in this state is disgusting.

The hardworking democratic base voter makes up 40% of the Dems in this state and the out of touch latte liberal crew makes up a majority. It’s what allows us to elect ... less satisfactory Dems

I'm honestly surprised you showed up here again after posting 4000 times that Biden had no chance in Georgia, now that his win in Georgia is imminent.

Andrew Johnson was pretty appalling as well. Between the two of them.

Uh, Jackson?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is Atlas 80% gay?

Probably. Discuss with maps.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

*rolls out 55 gallon drum of lotion*

It’s gettin’ real.

I just wanna say, as a gay man, I'm looking forward to future updates.

Fellow gays represent!

Atlas baybee! I got here the year I realized I was gay and this was the first place where I really knew a significant amount of LGBT people.

I’m here, I’m gay (albeit with a bi-cycle) and I wouldn’t have it any other way!

At this point, I would like all the forum gays to identify themselves.

Reporting for duty!

Well, ladies, let’s get to work on this 55 gallon drum of lotion.

Better yet let’s all get a hotel room and see where this goes.

Well that escalated quickly.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Marco Rubio is trying his best to have it both ways, but that's all a quick search found for me.

Of course he is.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

*rolls out 55 gallon drum of lotion*

It’s gettin’ real.

I just wanna say, as a gay man, I'm looking forward to future updates.

Fellow gays represent!

Atlas baybee! I got here the year I realized I was gay and this was the first place where I really knew a significant amount of LGBT people.

I’m here, I’m gay (albeit with a bi-cycle) and I wouldn’t have it any other way!

At this point, I would like all the forum gays to identify themselves.

Reporting for duty!

We’re here we’re queer....get used to it!

Fellow gay here! Here's hoping we keep Obergefell (SCOTUS ruling legalizing same sex marriage) and Bostock (SCOTUS ruling outlawing discrimination for being gay). Sorry, too on topic, back to the gallon of lotion

Damn. All these gay new registers might be what it takes to turn back the tide of straightization on Atlas over the past couple years.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

*rolls out 55 gallon drum of lotion*

It’s gettin’ real.

I just wanna say, as a gay man, I'm looking forward to future updates.

Fellow gays represent!

Atlas baybee! I got here the year I realized I was gay and this was the first place where I really knew a significant amount of LGBT people.

I’m here, I’m gay (albeit with a bi-cycle) and I wouldn’t have it any other way!

At this point, I would like all the forum gays to identify themselves.

Reporting for duty!

We’re here we’re queer....get used to it!

Fellow gay here! Here's hoping we keep Obergefell (SCOTUS ruling legalizing same sex marriage) and Bostock (SCOTUS ruling outlawing discrimination for being gay). Sorry, too on topic, back to the gallon of lotion

Damn. All these gay new registers might be what it takes to turn back the tide of straightization on Atlas over the past couple years.

Hasn't Atlas been far on average more gay anyway?

Yeah but iirc it's dropped from like a third to a quarter.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I hope Biden breaks Obama's 2008 total in Philly. He's 83k votes away.

That's why I think the "ballots out in Philly" # is wrong - Biden is definitely passing Hillary 2016

He didn't do it in Detroit, although there are a few upscale parts of Philly and Philly is growing.

You have to look at the turnout %. Detroit is smaller than in '08.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

What are the odds Trump will end up winning AZ?

30%

What are the odds Trump will end up winning AZ?

20%

so 0%

Honestly it's impossible to know without seeing what parts of Maricopa have counted. But I assume Fox knows what they're doing from precincts.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

It's clear Raffensberger doesn't want GA to be the one who puts Biden over 270. They'll probably wait till PA flip before reporting.

But why though?? It would be epic if GA is the state that ends the election

Because it will give the election to Biden. They were reporting past midnight last night but they chose to go home early tonight.

Wouldn't GA just push Biden to 269? AZ/NV/PA would be the state to push past 270.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Updates from AZ, PA and GA.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 46,667 (90% counted)

Of the remaining ~340,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 146,500 of them - (43.0%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 1,267 (>99% counted)

Of the remaining ~22,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 11,634 of them - (52.9%)

PA - Biden down by 18,229 (95% counted)

Of the remaining ~270,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~144,115 of them - (53.4%)

The ratios of late votes coming in the last 4 hours:

AZ (Biden : Trump =  53.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.8%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

Per the NYT map, the gap in GA is down to 665.

If only for the sake of comparison, I'd be interested to see the figures for NC and AK. The Senate races in both could also still be in contention if the EV ratios for the Dems are comparable to GA or PA.

Not sure about that. iIrc Biden needs to clear 70% in NC to flip it which is maybe possible but I think Cunningham is too hard of a lift.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

JOERGIA!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Anybody checked in on Millenial Moderate?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Friendship with Miami cancelled. Now Atlanta is my best friend.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

After GA flipped:

https://twitter.com/selshoax/status/1324634028515889153

Hold up is this real?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Anyone know how this is going over with Trumpists?

Terribly, hopefully.

Dare I ask, having been teased is the lotion still waiting on PA?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think Trump would have won the state by a narrow margin (15k votes or so) if he had done as well as Kemp in rural/small-town GA (especially in the North and Southeast), right? There were clearly some Kemp/Biden voters.

Yes. This map is 36 hours old (explains Atlanta and Savannah "swinging R") and I'll update it tomorrow, but it frankly speaks to...well, perhaps I'll just let people draw their own conclusions for now.

LOL, thanks.

Kemp/Biden #populists delivering GA for Biden

So not a single county flipped?

The big county south of Augusta flipped Trump

#TrendsAreReal

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

WhY iS hE CaMpAiGNinG iN GeOrGiA???

Pretty amazing, isn't it?  His last trip to the state appears to have been very important, both for taking the state on the Presidential race and making sure both Senate races go to a runoff.

Plus Obama and Harris in the last week. Jen O'Malley Dillon clearly knows what she's doing.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

They called us madmen for saying "Blue Texas."

Turns out we were geniuses for saying "Blue Georgia!"

Those TX left of GA takes were lol.

@Millenial Moderate

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Jennifer Medina: Mike Noble, a Phoenix-based pollster, told me: “That’s a wrap for the presidential contest in AZ. Trump needed almost 60% on this ballot drop, he got very low 50s. #Ballgame.”

That is true unless each vote dump is substantially different. Why was this vote dump substantially more Dem than the last one? I don't know.

It came from AZ-06. Which is Maricopa's purplest district. The rest should be even bluer.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

L M A O

https://mobile.twitter.com/KathyBenjamin/status/1324737371628326912

Yeah no. Ima gloat as obnoxiously and aggressively as possible. I've been waiting four years. Suck it, MAGA.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Jennifer Medina: Mike Noble, a Phoenix-based pollster, told me: “That’s a wrap for the presidential contest in AZ. Trump needed almost 60% on this ballot drop, he got very low 50s. #Ballgame.”

That is true unless each vote dump is substantially different. Why was this vote dump substantially more Dem than the last one? I don't know.

It came from AZ-06. Which is Maricopa's purplest district. The rest should be even bluer.

The dumps are by congressional district? Where did you get that info?

You can just look at % reporting by CD on the SOS page.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyleKulinski/status/1324735367610798081
lol

The left is not going to get far if it keep believing in the delusion that a majority of voters are closet progressives who are just waiting to cast their ballots for Bernie Sanders or AOC.

- 63% support for a 15 Dollar minimum wage  
- 66% support healthcare for all
- 63% support tuition free universities

Those are vague and it isn't the expansion of the welfare state that turns voters off, it's the anti-market stuff (bad for business, overregulation, killing industries) and the smash the system stuff (defund, abolish, etc) that's utterly toxic. Plus positively identifying as socialist.