2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Weird how much Queens lags Brooklyn. Does it have something to do with larger immigrant communities in Queens?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Dejoy is definitely engaging in suppression. Anyways, If people have mailed in their ballots and havent gotten a notice of approval or havent mailed it in yet by this friday, they should do round the clock calls to get them to vote in person otherwise their vote may not count

They are.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Travis County tweets that 486k have been cast as of noon! That beast the all time record set in 2018!

We’re about to turn this bitch blue next week! We still got 2.5 days of EV plus ELECTION DAY!

Shout out to you always remaining steadfast that GA and TX were in reach for Dems. It's not over but it's looking good. REAL good.

Shout out to you maintaining that Georgia is a swing state for the past four years. That+the Joemala prediction makes your analysis some of Atlas' best.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Florida VOTE-BY-MAIL (3:30 PM UPDATE)

Democratic: 1,928,569  (+625,663)
Republican: 1,302,906
NPA/Other: 941,189
Total 4,172,664

UNRETURNED BALLOTS:
Democratic: 752,478  (+185,507)
Republican: 566,971
NPA/Other: 503,435
Total: 1,822,884

https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

FL has drop boxes right?

Yes. And every early voting site doubles as a drop-box.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Good news for Biden out of Broward. He's going there tomorrow too. Needs to turbocharge turnout there.

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1321579879268311040

!ping Forumlurker.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Georgia, Wednesday Final Update:, 227,877 votes have been cast thus far on Wednesday. This was the highest turnout day thus far.

This includes 172,940 in-person votes and 54,937 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 2,313,941 in-person & 1,109,578 by mail, for a grand total of 3,423,519 (82.19% of 2016 total vote).

Wow! We really need to be freaking out about Georgia on here at least as much as Texas. This is happening!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Just the fact that Atlas is dismissing the closest thing we have to experts, in this thread tells you everything you need to know about it.

Wasserman is the true expert.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Am I right in saying that this is currently only a Miami-Dade problem and the other south democratic counties like Broward & Palm Beach are doing okay?

Basically yes, but I wouldn't even go that far. It's more like Biden has a Hialeah/West Miami problem. I haven't seen any evidence to indicate weakness for Biden with the AA vote in North Miami or with white liberals along the bay and beaches.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Am I right in saying that this is currently only a Miami-Dade problem and the other south democratic counties like Broward & Palm Beach are doing okay?

Basically yes, but I wouldn't even go that far. It's more like Biden has a Hialeah/West Miami problem. I haven't seen any evidence to indicate weakness for Biden with the AA vote in North Miami or with white liberals along the bay and beaches.

If I recall correctly from the maps and stats that were posted a few days ago, white Democrats were by far the group with the highest turnout of all Miami-Dade, even more than white Republicans. But that may always be the case,  I don't know.

I don't know, but White Democrats in Miami-Dade definitely skew high-income and Jewish which would generally indicate high turnout.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1322340246357450754

John Cornyn is gonna be fine. All of the Dallas, Houston, and Fort Worth suburbanites will come out in hordes to vote for Joe Biden for President and Republican for all other elected positions.

The overwhelming majority of Biden voters (of all demographic persuasions) in Texas will be Hegar voters as well. Since the state is going to be close, we shouldn't be that surprised if it splits outcomes but if it does it won't be because of some huge population of Romney-Clinton-Biden/Cornyn voters.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

For anyone wondering why I’m a doomer, this is why.

I think what the Texas GOP is trying to do is only a small fraction of what they’ll try to do across the country.

Election day is in three days. Unless you seriously buy the "overturn the results after they're counted" line, which I don't, they don't have time.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322637916313735168

Wow. If Forsyth ends up at ~140% of 2016 turnout on election day and the new voters split 60-40 Biden (both reasonable imo), it'll go Trump 63-Biden 37. Which is crazy.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322637916313735168

Wow. If Forsyth ends up at ~140% of 2016 turnout on election day and the new voters split 60-40 Biden (both reasonable imo), it'll go Trump 63-Biden 37. Which is crazy.

60-40 Biden for new voters is a lot to ask in Forsyth. Let's say they split 50-50. Still a very favorable swing to Biden.

You think? I assume most are under 35 and transplants which would seem like a liberal group. Even at 50-50, that's Trump 65-Biden 35.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Believe me, I was here for 2010 and 2014. My saying Dems would lose 8 Senate seats in 2014 was called pessimistic...

Then they lost 9.

That's why I wish I could just freeze time right now. I know it's all down hill after this. The best case scenario is mild losses downballot, although I suppose it's not out of the question to hold even or possibly gain Senate seats in 2022 (I'm less optimistic about that, good map or not. Democrats always seem to get burned in the Senate).

We'll lose seats, but there are a few big things working in our favor:
1. Democrats will control redistricting in a lot of states where we didn't last time.
2. DC and Puerto Rico could be states.
3. The Democratic Coalition traded a lot of low-propensity voters for high-propensity ones.
4. Biden is likely to be president as the pandemic and recession end--right before midterms.
5. We don't have a bunch of random blue-dog rural seats that were always going to favor Republicans to defend.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

955971 Iowans have voted early.
D 438155
R 316512
NPA 196866

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/AbsenteeCongressional2020.pdf

So per the Civiqs poll, those that already voted support Biden/Greenfield 67-32. Those that are still to vote support Trump/Ernst 67-27. Assuming NPA's split evenly, by this math Republicans need to basically match the EV turnout on election day to have a chance, which seems unlikely (1.5 million people voted in 2016, the turnout in 2020 would need to be 500,000 more than that to counter EV).

Yeah that definitely isn't happening. Say that poll is off in the GOP's favor and it's actually 62-38. At most there are 700,000 Iowans left to vote and the GOP needs to win those at least 66-34. I don't like the odds of that happening.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't think there's 20% of the Florida vote remaining. 

We are at over 9 million votes returned, which is over 94% of the 2016 vote.  Yes turnout will be higher but millions of votes higher?

80% turnout plus 4 years of population growth=11.25 million votes.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Miami early vote is over 1 million.  Highest turnout ever I believe.

it's basically 30% R, 40% D, 30% I.

Anyone have an idea how independents are likely to vote there?

Registered voters left in Miami Dade

Dem: 226,000
Rep:  120,000
NPA:  204,000

How do Trumpy Cubans tend to register? GOP or NPA?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

From a UK perspective I feel sorry for the American people.  A choice between Trump or Biden. What the hell has happened to the USA

LMAO you guys had to choose between Johnson and Corbyn. Meanwhile, we have a great choice (Biden) and the worst choice in the world (Trump). No complaints here.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

OML xD

You guys do realize that's a fake account, right?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

OML xD

You guys do realize that's a fake account, right?

How'd he get the blue check mark?  doesn't that mean it's verified?

Verified for the guy (@ira) who just changed his display name to Beto O'Rourke.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Am I the only one who thinks Atlas has gone overboard with cum humor?