2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Holmes]

It seems like at the current pace + a bit of an Election Day bump, Democrats will hit 80% turnout.  Do Florida experts think this is enough? 

It would definitely be better than their 2016 turnout, and with less registered Dixiecrats, they will be more reliable Biden votes. Just gotta put faith in the NPAs

[cwh2018]

It seems like at the current pace + a bit of an Election Day bump, Democrats will hit 80% turnout.  Do Florida experts think this is enough? 

From what  have seen Florida dems had 75% total turnout versus 81% for the GOP in 2016. The guy I follow is hoping for 80% Florida dem turnout in total, or to stay within 3% of the GOP turnout figure.  They hope Dems can get to 65%-70% by the end of the early vote.

[wbrocks67]

We still have a lot to go in South Carolina, but with the state at nearly 50% of 2016 turnout, this is the make-up:

2016 total: 74% white/26% non-white (White +48)
2018 total: 73% white/27% non-white (White +46)
2020 (so far): 67% white/33% non-white (White +34)

If that shift even stays remotely close to that margin, Harrison certainly has a good chance to win.

[Flabuckeye]

It seems like at the current pace + a bit of an Election Day bump, Democrats will hit 80% turnout.  Do Florida experts think this is enough?  

All I want for Xmas is
1). 80%+ Turnout statewide,
2).  Dems  at least match 2016 turnout level 74.3% in Miami Dade (that is 170K more votes from now)
and 3).  NPAs to exceed their 2016 levels overall

[pagh]

Democrats & Republicans are the same.

[pantsaregood]

Democrats & Republicans are the same.

Is this the best trolling we can get to lower turnout? This is pathetic.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Democrats & Republicans are the same.

Ok?

[Non Swing Voter]

It seems like at the current pace + a bit of an Election Day bump, Democrats will hit 80% turnout.  Do Florida experts think this is enough? 

From what  have seen Florida dems had 75% total turnout versus 81% for the GOP in 2016. The guy I follow is hoping for 80% Florida dem turnout in total, or to stay within 3% of the GOP turnout figure.  They hope Dems can get to 65%-70% by the end of the early vote.

I'd be surprised at this point if Dems aren't above 65% by the end of early voting. 

[Non Swing Voter]

It seems like at the current pace + a bit of an Election Day bump, Democrats will hit 80% turnout.  Do Florida experts think this is enough?  

All I want for Xmas is
1). 80%+ Turnout statewide,
2).  Dems  at least match 2016 turnout level 74.3% in Miami Dade (that is 170K more votes from now)
and 3).  NPAs to exceed their 2016 levels overall

Hopefully souls to the polls cuts deep into that 170k.

[wbrocks67]

Democrats & Republicans are the same.

ok bot

[Non Swing Voter]

Dems at 54.7% turnout in Florida.

If they end today at 56%, Thursday at 59%, Friday at 62% they'll be well positioned to hit 65-70% by the end of early voting.

[CellarDoor]

Dems at 54.7% turnout in Florida.

If they end today at 56%, Thursday at 59%, Friday at 62% they'll be well positioned to hit 65-70% by the end of early voting.

Traditionally Dems vote in big numbers over the last weekend, is that right?

[Gass3268]

Dems at 54.7% turnout in Florida.

If they end today at 56%, Thursday at 59%, Friday at 62% they'll be well positioned to hit 65-70% by the end of early voting.

Traditionally Dems vote in big numbers over the last weekend, is that right?

Correct, mix of Souls to the polls and a lot of the more smaller Republican counties not offering in person early voting.

[BlueSwan]

Democrats & Republicans are the same.

LMAO, check out this posters post history. Either it's the most obvious Russian bot in history or just an incredibly stupid person reciting one line Trumpist talking points.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Travis County tweets that 486k have been cast as of noon! That beast the all time record set in 2018!

We’re about to turn this bitch blue next week! We still got 2.5 days of EV plus ELECTION DAY!

[mijan]

815918 Iowans have voted early so far.
Dems 396357
Rep 262562
Dems + 133895

947545 Iowans have requested for early voting.

Dems leading IA 1 by 46310
Dems leading IA 2 by 46706
Dems leading IA 3 by 45609
Rep leading IA 4 by 4830

52% of 2016 turnout.

57.4% active Dems have voted so far.
37.3% active GOP have voted so far.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Travis County tweets that 486k have been cast as of noon! That beast the all time record set in 2018!

We’re about to turn this bitch blue next week! We still got 2.5 days of EV plus ELECTION DAY!

Shout out to you always remaining steadfast that GA and TX were in reach for Dems. It's not over but it's looking good. REAL good.

[Hammy]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)
= 1,978,486

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

I think those numbers are still lagging the real numbers.  I can't find the article but the actual numbers were higher a week ago in some of the philly suburban counties and I still don't think they've been accounted for much less the new ones that have come in.

Doesn't PA update only on Fridays or something?

[Rep Jessica]

FL. D lead down to 221k. More than half way to 200k since the morning. On target to reach 200k by end of the day. I'll update the graph next hour— au ng (@athein1) October 28, 2020

[mijan]

Colorado Update - I really doubt Republicans match their 2016 turnout with how pathetic their ballot returns have been so far.


Democrats have returned 70% of 2016 their ballots
Independents have returned 69% of their 2016 total ballots
Republicans only 49%

Can Gardner  lose by 15?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Colorado Update - I really doubt Republicans match their 2016 turnout with how pathetic their ballot returns have been so far.


Democrats have returned 70% of 2016 their ballots
Independents have returned 69% of their 2016 total ballots
Republicans only 49%

Can Gardner  lose by 15?

I'm more curious about CO-03

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Travis County tweets that 486k have been cast as of noon! That beast the all time record set in 2018!

We’re about to turn this bitch blue next week! We still got 2.5 days of EV plus ELECTION DAY!

Shout out to you always remaining steadfast that GA and TX were in reach for Dems. It's not over but it's looking good. REAL good.

Shout out to you maintaining that Georgia is a swing state for the past four years. That+the Joemala prediction makes your analysis some of Atlas' best.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jon Ralston is a pussy

[Rep Jessica]

Florida VOTE-BY-MAIL (3:30 PM UPDATE)

Democratic: 1,928,569  (+625,663)
Republican: 1,302,906
NPA/Other: 941,189
Total 4,172,664

UNRETURNED BALLOTS:
Democratic: 752,478  (+185,507)
Republican: 566,971
NPA/Other: 503,435
Total: 1,822,884

https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

[Non Swing Voter]

Dem turnout = 55.1% in FL.  That looks pretty good.