VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

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Okay so everyone remember this poll https://mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaRsch/status/913860665982545921

Yea I think we all misjudged that poll I put it as junk since no one knew who she is or anything I'm changing my mind that's probably a real poll.

Based on what? Don't be ridiculous.

Every single Poll out today was closer then the last polls they put out
And for the past 45 days or so you have been hearing how people don't like northam and dems being worried that he is to bland
Also people for the past 3 months have said internal polls showed it being closer then public polls.

And the poll was conducted by a complete nobody with no information released, and it was nearly a month old when it was already posted.

I know your party is all anti-facts/science and all, but this is a whole new level.

How am I anti-facts and science ?
Is it because I'm pro life? Is it because I don't believe in fake polls with northam leading by 12?
Is it because I don't trust post polls since 2016 I mean look at Wisconsin not 1 poll the entire election said trump would win there Ron Johnson only led in 1 poll the final 6 weeks
Pennsylvania pat toomey was falling in the polls the final week he still won.
What do you mean about the me and the GOP being anti-facts?

Please double check facts before you post... leading up to the 2016 Wisconsin Senate race there were more than 4 polls showing a Johnson lead including ones of >4% points, and at least 2 additional ones showing him tied. Johnson winning wasn't a shock.

As for your prior post, again, Northam's lead in the Roanoke College poll went up from +4 to +6. His lead in the CNU Poll went down by 3 and obviously he went down significant in the mannomouth poll.

I don't care who you vote for or what your opinions are on abortion/contraception, just please double check facts before positing.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_johnson_vs_feingold-3740.html#polls Only 1 poll with Johnson up

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At this point, all I can say for certain is this: the race won't be called until several hours after the polls close. Gillespie will likely take an early lead as the results start to pour in and hold on to that lead for hours, but as the percentage of precincts reporting approaches 100, Northam will chip away at Gillespie's lead until such time the race is officially called.

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There's several reasons I support Gillespie.

Northam is too liberal on Climate/Energy Issues

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His supposed support for rural Virginia is revealed for the sham it is when a fairly superficial read through his website makes it clear that he is anti-coal.

Northam is too liberal on Guns

He has indicated support for not only an assault weapons ban, but also limits on size of gun clips, and likely would support a limit on size of gun magazines as well.

Northam is too liberal on Abortion

I think his 100% rating with Planned Parenthood and NARAL speaks for itself here.

While Gillespie has dabbed in Trumpism, he is still an establishment republican and his win would still show that non-Trumpist Rs can win in key states

Going to be perfectly honest here, I just really want to see a Republican win Virginia one last time before it joins the solid D northeast

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No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.

Again your the biggest left-wing hack on this site,NO CANDIDATE IS WINNING BY MORE 3 POINTS.

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No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.

Again your the biggest left-wing hack on this site,NO CANDIDATE IS WINNING BY MORE 3 POINTS.

Sure thing Mr.Unskewer...

You just wait I still think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning.
The polls for this race are fake the last time a democrat or republican won by 17 points was in 2009 and 2008,and that was against an awful republican and Democrats.

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No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.

Again your the biggest left-wing hack on this site,NO CANDIDATE IS WINNING BY MORE 3 POINTS.

Sure thing Mr.Unskewer...

You just wait I still think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning.
The polls for this race are fake the last time a democrat or republican won by 17 points was in 2009 and 2008,and that was against an awful republican and Democrats.

Is Northam likely to win by 17?  No, that's one of the extremes of the polling range.  But just because that one outcome is unlikely, it doesn't mean that all the polls are wrong.  The vast majority of them have had Northam ahead; the RCP average has him at +3.3, which I think is pretty close (I put 51-47 in the prediction thread).

If you really think Gillespie has a 60% chance of winning, perhaps you should buy some shares on that outcome (it's currently at 0.28 on Predictit).

I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

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I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.

Did you know that Chris Gregoire actually won the 2004 election by 6% but Rossi actually hired Idahoans to vote illegally in Spokane. This is as true as any story Mr Greedo spins.

10/10

Lel

Did you guys know that Dino Rossi won the 8th under a more democrat map everytime he ran?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_gubernatorial_election,_2004
Oh look he won the first count and the second count oh wait the crybaby democrats won’t stop oh what do you know they found random ballots in king county which magically showed up.

Seriously you guys are all political hacks and I’m not someone who thinks every election is rigged. But I do think that Washington gubernatorial 2004 and Minnesota senate 2008 and *maybe* North Carolina gubernatorial race in 2016.
But those first two are 100% rigged just like how Illinois was rigged in 1960.

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I would buy some shares but I’m only 15 and I’m broke since I spent all my money on battlefront 2.

Suddenly everything makes sense.

Did you know that Chris Gregoire actually won the 2004 election by 6% but Rossi actually hired Idahoans to vote illegally in Spokane. This is as true as any story Mr Greedo spins.

10/10

Lel

Did you guys know that Dino Rossi won the 8th under a more democrat map everytime he ran?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_gubernatorial_election,_2004
Oh look he won the first count and the second count oh wait the crybaby democrats won’t stop oh what do you know they found random ballots in king county which magically showed up.

Seriously you guys are all political hacks and I’m not someone who thinks every election is rigged. But I do think that Washington gubernatorial 2004 and Minnesota senate 2008 and *maybe* North Carolina gubernatorial race in 2016.
But those first two are 100% rigged just like how Illinois was rigged in 1960.

I'll see you, and raise you Florida 2000.

Listen Florida in 2000 was iffy but I don’t think it was rigged.I have read about people in the media doing there own recounts and bush still winning so I don’t think that was rigged,just like how I don’t think the 2013 Virginia attorney generals race was rigged even so it was close.

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Look there is really no point in arguing endlessly about this. Greedo is not going to change his mind, and I doubt many of us are either. I don't think he is correct but in the end I can't say for sure what will happen next week.

Let's just wait and see, because this isn't really accomplishing anything.

Agreed but Atlas don't let this distract you from the fact that Greedo never shot first or simultaneously but was shot by Han first like the little punk he was.

#GreedoDidNothingWrong
#Justice4Greedo

Thanks
#greedo4lincolnhouse

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This closet race in a long time in Virginia,while 2013-2014 were close there polls were not,on average both races had a swing from the polls to Election Day of 6 points that is why Gillespie is going to win.

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This closet race in a long time in Virginia,while 2013-2014 were close there polls were not,on average both races had a swing from the polls to Election Day of 6 points that is why Gillespie is going to win.

Are you simple?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2013&off=9&elect=0&fips=51&f=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2005&off=9&elect=0&fips=51&f=0

All I said was that Gillespie would win undecided voters.
Also I didn’t say would get a 6 point swing I have been saying since the beginning of September
48.72% Gillespie and 48.31% northam.

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Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)

Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

If anything, Kellyanne Conway's poll should not be in any average, especially not in place of a non-partisan pollster.

If that Conway poll said Gillespie plus 12 I would agree but it’s plus 2 within the margin of error stop complaining when a poll comes out you don’t like.

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This closet race in a long time in Virginia,while 2013-2014 were close there polls were not,on average both races had a swing from the polls to Election Day of 6 points that is why Gillespie is going to win.

Are you simple?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2013&off=9&elect=0&fips=51&f=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2005&off=9&elect=0&fips=51&f=0

All I said was that Gillespie would win undecided voters.
Also I didn’t say would get a 6 point swing I have been saying since the beginning of September
48.72% Gillespie and 48.31% northam.

He'd have to win ~70% of the undecided for that to happen.

How many undecideds did he win 2014 oh right 99% plus some democrats.

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Last 5 Polls (non-junk):

Suffolk: N+4
WaPo: N+5
BRD: N+6
Polling Company: G+2
Christopher Newport Univ. : N+7

Average: N +4.0 (Down from N+ 4.6 before Suffolk Poll)

Polling averages don’t work unless you include the good-faith outliers.

If anything, Kellyanne Conway's poll should not be in any average, especially not in place of a non-partisan pollster.

If that Conway poll said Gillespie plus 12 I would agree but it’s plus 2 within the margin of error stop complaining when a poll comes out you don’t like.

Oh the irony. What'd you say about Quinnipiac again?

That poll is trash it’s the only one saying that northam is up double digits heck he was by the as Murphy in New Jersey no way is that poll real.

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FYI northam is up only 3.6 on RCP.

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Now does everyone see why I have been saying Gillespie will win.
Northam is maybe one of the worst politicians right now in America not counting Hillary.
Northam probably would have lost if he hadn’t run against E.W Jackson.

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Now does everyone see why I have been saying Gillespie will win.
Northam is maybe one of the worst politicians right now in America not counting Hillary.
Northam probably would have lost if he hadn’t run against E.W Jackson.

No. You just keep jumping on every negative thing that comes out about Northam and use it to justify your already flimsy but stubborn prediction. To be honest I don't think Northam as a candidate or his campaign has anything to with your prediction - based on what I've seen, I think it is entirely based on Republican candidates over-performing polls in 2013 and 2014, and you've just assumed it will continue this time around as well. That is probably the entirety of it.

Well there are a few reasons for my prediction
1 Ed Gillespie is an extremely good candidate to be honest his close primary possibley helped him out since he actually out reached to trump voters.
2 northam is a boring awful campaigner who’s flip flopping will probably hurt him.
3 yes republicans have over preformed the polls in off years ed by 8 in 2014
And ken by 4 in 2013.
4 the polls are WAYYYY closer then both of those races.
5 people do want OUR history to remain northam took the WRONG position on history.

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Last thing I heard about the early vote was that black turnout was down 1.2% over 2013.

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So more bad news for northam Douglas wilder has no endorsement.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GovernorWilder/status/926129906576224256?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Update even more I why this is bad news for northam
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/amp/inside-bellwether-virginia-governor-s-race-tightens-n816631

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Lol now you see that in the end it# tilting republican/Toss up

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Lol now you see that in the end it# tilting republican/Toss up

Yup Gillespie by 10 since all Republicans win all undecideds all thebtime

Stop I never said Gillespie will win by 10 I also never said Northam could win.
Tilting republican means 55-65% chance Gillespie wins.

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So, if we sidestep the hysteria am I wrong in noting that a) we have a lot of polls from reputable pollsters that aren't herding and are spread in a nice normal distribution around a clear Northam lead in a state where the polls got it just right in last year's election and b) the early vote totals show significantly depressed turnout in the strongly Republican areas compared to Democratic strongholds.

Like, sure, Gillespie could win but all the actual numbers I see don't back that up at all. Am I missing anything?

Yup ya missed how Gillespie gonna win 63-37 now an win fairfax county now cuz all undecideds go Republican

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Sorry, feel free to ban me for trolling too hard

The people you’re trolling deserve to be trolled

When did I ever troll this thread?

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Well well well after being attacked for 2 months as a troll, who looks stupid now LOL.

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Well well well after being attacked for 2 months as a troll who looks stupid now LOL.

I mean, you right now since the election hasn't happend.

I know that I have been saying that there would be a surge to Gillespie and that’s a 3 point race in both directions.

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Alright the pollster who got the democrats freaked out is releasing there final poll on Monday.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/926541687324860418?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet