VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

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FIRE UP THOSE #HOTTAKES, WE'VE GOT 4 DAYS LEFT OF THIS STUFF!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I love the #hottakes here

[Keep cool-idge]

Now does everyone see why I have been saying Gillespie will win.
Northam is maybe one of the worst politicians right now in America not counting Hillary.
Northam probably would have lost if he hadn’t run against E.W Jackson.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Now does everyone see why I have been saying Gillespie will win.
Northam is maybe one of the worst politicians right now in America not counting Hillary.
Northam probably would have lost if he hadn’t run against E.W Jackson.

Northam’s still gonna win by like 6-8 points.

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THE TAKES CAPTAIN, THEY'RE TOO HOT, THEY'RE MELTING THE HULL

[Classic Conservative]

Northam is still going to win by 4-6%

[Littlefinger]

too bad they couldn't have been like Tom Perriello, who has been a true team player after the primary trying to unify the campaigns and help Dems make gains in the HOD.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

northams finished boys. without the DFA nomination no one is going to turn out to vote for him.

gillepsie wins by 12%. sucks to be a liberal in 2017!

[Maxwell]

Holy...

https://twitter.com/Alex_Roarty/status/926242913545269248


Disastrous.

Pretty sure the Sanders cultists want Northam to lose so they’ll have something new to whine about.

oh come on

Gillespie is everything i hate about politics. everything. Despite my obvious annoyance for Northam and his mediocre moderate hero politics I felt this close to donating $25 to his campaign.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Settle down everyone. Northam is still going to win by 2-5%.

[Young Conservative]

Those liberal who know about the DFA definitely vote. Now, at least some will probably abstain. In off year elections, every vote counts and turnout counts. Not a good omen for Northam. I still remain pessimistic about the race as a whole. As usual, Atlas goes radically too far both ways. This does not mean Northam will lose, nor is it irrelevant- it will have an effect.

[Virginiá]

Now does everyone see why I have been saying Gillespie will win.
Northam is maybe one of the worst politicians right now in America not counting Hillary.
Northam probably would have lost if he hadn’t run against E.W Jackson.

No. You just keep jumping on every negative thing that comes out about Northam and use it to justify your already flimsy but stubborn prediction. To be honest I don't think Northam as a candidate or his campaign has anything to with your prediction - based on what I've seen, I think it is entirely based on Republican candidates over-performing polls in 2013 and 2014, and you've just assumed it will continue this time around as well. That is probably the entirety of it.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Settle down everyone. Northam is still going to win by 2-5%.

He might but I doubt if he was confident in his victory he would be running risky attack ads against his opponents and seemingly doing a bit of a flip flop on his policy positions.

[Kamala]

Now does everyone see why I have been saying Gillespie will win.
Northam is maybe one of the worst politicians right now in America not counting Hillary.
Northam probably would have lost if he hadn’t run against E.W Jackson.

No. You just keep jumping on every negative thing that comes out about Northam and use it to justify your already flimsy but stubborn prediction. To be honest I don't think Northam as a candidate or his campaign has anything to with your prediction - based on what I've seen, I think it is entirely based on Republican candidates over-performing polls in 2013 and 2014, and you've just assumed it will continue this time around as well. That is probably the entirety of it.

Drag him!

[Roronoa D. Law]

Northam still going to win. VA is not a Sanders state to begin with doubt anybody will stay home because they unendorse him. But Democrats especially the Sanders wing needs to get off it high horse about the ideological purity test. I mean is DFA going to endorse Gillespie?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Those liberal who know about the DFA definitely vote. Now, at least some will probably abstain. In off year elections, every vote counts and turnout counts. Not a good omen for Northam. I still remain pessimistic about the race as a whole. As usual, Atlas goes radically too far both ways. This does not mean Northam will lose, nor is it irrelevant- it will have an effect.

nobody (as in the vast majority of americans who aren't permanently following politics every second) actually knows who the hell DFA is

[ajc0918]

Does anyone know if early vote numbers look good or bad for Northam? I haven't seen too much about ballot numbers other than the Fairfax post a few pages back.

[Keep cool-idge]

Now does everyone see why I have been saying Gillespie will win.
Northam is maybe one of the worst politicians right now in America not counting Hillary.
Northam probably would have lost if he hadn’t run against E.W Jackson.

No. You just keep jumping on every negative thing that comes out about Northam and use it to justify your already flimsy but stubborn prediction. To be honest I don't think Northam as a candidate or his campaign has anything to with your prediction - based on what I've seen, I think it is entirely based on Republican candidates over-performing polls in 2013 and 2014, and you've just assumed it will continue this time around as well. That is probably the entirety of it.

Well there are a few reasons for my prediction
1 Ed Gillespie is an extremely good candidate to be honest his close primary possibley helped him out since he actually out reached to trump voters.
2 northam is a boring awful campaigner who’s flip flopping will probably hurt him.
3 yes republicans have over preformed the polls in off years ed by 8 in 2014
And ken by 4 in 2013.
4 the polls are WAYYYY closer then both of those races.
5 people do want OUR history to remain northam took the WRONG position on history.

[Skill and Chance]

So DFA would rather have race-baiting Ed be governor and give Republicans full control over Virginia for essentially the next decade with redistricting? With Brazile desperately trying to sell books with her comments 5 days before hugely important elections and now this, it is like they are trying to lose. What a MORONIC decision by DFA.

They can still get a say in redistricting by taking the State Senate in 2019.  Clinton won 23 of the 40 seats.  In fact, this would assure a Dem say in congressional redistricting, while they would have to win VA-GOV again in 2021 to get a say through the governor.  And SCOTUS has already gotten involved for congressional and the lower house.  You can bet they would frown on a mid-decade redraw if that's what you're worried about.

[Gass3268]

Does anyone know if early vote numbers look good or bad for Northam? I haven't seen too much about ballot numbers other than the Fairfax post a few pages back.

If I had to guess, they look good for Northam, but we were burned hard last year with the early vote. I really wouldn't put too much stock in it, other than turnout could be up.

[Kamala]

Does anyone know if early vote numbers look good or bad for Northam? I haven't seen too much about ballot numbers other than the Fairfax post a few pages back.

If I had to guess, they look good for Northam, but we were burned hard last year with the early vote. I really wouldn't put too much stock in it, other than turnout could be up.

Ossoff taught us to not put too much faith into early vote numbers.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Does anyone know if early vote numbers look good or bad for Northam? I haven't seen too much about ballot numbers other than the Fairfax post a few pages back.

                     13          17
State of VA   128,497   193,196
Top 5 largest increase from 13: Manassas City, Accomack County, Manassas Park City, Prince William County, Prince Edward County
Top 5 largest decrease from 13: Grayson County, Richmond County, Smyth County, Galax City, Danville City

[Keep cool-idge]

Last thing I heard about the early vote was that black turnout was down 1.2% over 2013.

[Skill and Chance]

It's strange how pretty much everyone has been treating the candidate who has consistently trailed in the polls as the favorite in this race from pretty much the day after the primary.  Not that he can't win and not that Northam hasn't done some dumb stuff this week, but the whole thing just seems very odd to me.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

It's strange how pretty much everyone has been treating the candidate who has consistently trailed in the polls as the favorite in this race from pretty much the day after the primary.  Not that he can't win and not that Northam hasn't done some dumb stuff this week, but the whole thing just seems very odd to me.

If you look at the prediction thread you will notice mostly predictions of a  Northam victory.

Edit: I don’t think people believe Gillespie will win just that he has a decent chance too (like 40% or so). Anyway the polling is kind of been erratic meaning it’s tough to get an entirely clear picture of the race. Northram running negative attack ads and changing positions suggests that he is probably not entirely confident in his victory.