Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Suffolk is 40/56, but I think the last Suffolk was like 36/59 or something?

Yea

[MR DARK BRANDON]

When Polls are adjusted based on historical data and trends, as well as polling trends of demographics, Biden’s real approval rating is around 41-55% (-14%).  Remarkably, this is pretty close to the Real Clear Avg. of 42.1 to 54.8, but a bit higher than the 538 Adjusted Avg. of 43.1-51.5.  The biggest concern for Democrats seems two-fold: 1) Independents disapprove of their policies and administrative handling of situations; 2) They have lost the confidence and enthusiasm of Democrats, and this has been shaving away at their base. 

From an intuitive political strategy perspective, the January 6th coverage should have brought more Democrats back into the fold.  However, Joe Biden’s Approval has only seen a negligent bump over the weekend after the media shifted to January 6th coverage early last week.  Per Civiqs and others, the only effect it seems to have had is to push Undecided Democrats back into Biden’s camp, and shift a tiny amount of Independents towards the undecided group.       https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&net=true&party=Democrat

The J6 content seems to have only really had a divisive effect on voters.  According to Rasmussen, many people that slightly approved or disapproved joined those people who strongly approved or disapproved.  However, the impact was negligible. https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/biden_approval_index_history

Democrat Pollster, Morning Consult, has finally joined the consensus of polls tracking trends in approval when they released a poll of registered voters showing Biden 11-points underwater on December 28-29.   Why they didn’t publicly release it with the other data released on December 28-29 is very strange?   It’s interesting to note that Democrats did not support withdrawal when Trump was in Office, but flip-flopped when Biden pulled them out.  https://morningconsult.com/2022/01/10/iran-nuclear-deal-poll/

While it may be bit early to conclude the results of the J6 coverage, it should worry Democrats that it did not have any compelling influence on voters other than the ones who were already likely to vote for them in elections.   Also, the Biden and Democrats are losing approval for their handling of the Covid-19 situation, and he is likely underwater when you calculate the average of polls.  The message from Democrat posters about waiting until spring for good news is simply a propaganda tool that is present in the analysis of Democrat and Establishment Neo-Con Pollsters.   It’s time for Democrats to hit the panic button. 

Note: The IBD poll has 29-55% Disapproval among Independents, but by some sort of wizardry, Biden is only down by 1 point.  How?

I’d say Biden’s real numbers are smth like 44-51 going by recent polls and how they have changed over time

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1481342283907797000?t=gf4jqztI857QShv4tt...

HOLY sh**t.

Lol Quinnipiac is trash

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/joeygarrison/status/1481342283907797000?t=gf4jqztI857QShv4tt...
HOLY sh**t.

Lol Quinnipiac is trash

Yes.. in that it has a extreme democratic lean.

Not anymore.  They did at one time, but they did some methodology adjustments and seem to have overcompensated.  For the past year or so they've been among the most R-friendly pollsters.

That said, it's useful to look at trends even for pollsters that lean to one side or the other.

Yeah, seems they have changed their methology, now producing extreme results in the other direction. Quinnipiac should just quit polling alltoghter.

In a divided environment like this, it's virtually impossible for any president regardless of party to drop below the high 30s.

Anything is impossible, until it eventually happens.

On top of that other polls have been showing Biden In the mid 40’s so this is definitely an outlier

[MR DARK BRANDON]

DDHQ;

Approve; 47%
Disapprove; 53%

GRG;

Approve; 47%
Disapprove; 51%

[MR DARK BRANDON]

A bad poll is always a “trash poll” around here.

No but 33% approvals with GOP up only 1? Cmon.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Now all of a sudden people agree Quinnipiac is trash. Not when they overestimated Democrats by near double digits in 2020 on average, but now, because they show Biden below 40%.

IPSOS HAS HIM AT 45/50 BIDEN WON 50/45 WHAT PART OF BLUE WALL YOU DONT UNDERSTAND IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH BUT 50)45 TO GET BACK THE 304/234 BLUE WALL
WHAT WE GOT IN 2020

we’re talking 2022. The 304/234 blue wall dosen’t apply to 2022 as it is not a presidential election, and sadly OC he’s right. While I do believe Biden is in the position to win re election as incumbents do, 2022 is going to see Republican gains across the board

[MR DARK BRANDON]

The problem had always been no more stimulus checks and there's inflation that's the main issue but the youth vote has been a problem too and Blk voters , it wasn't just child tax credits, even the stimulus checks helped people with kids because of insurance the real hidden inflation.

Youth vote is disillusioned by Trump not being Prosecuted and the Blk vote has been with no student loan discharge but it's January too, the Election is a long way off

But, Trump is recruiting all these GOP Congressional candidates and voter suppression and DOJ has been sitting on Meadows indictment for almost two months

But, what is there to Prosecute, Nancy Pelosi was in charge of Natl Security there is a Grand Jury in GA but it's slow and voters, Dem thought they were getting a Prosecuted Trump, apparently not

Be advised Biden Approvals have jumped from 39 to 48 percent because he was at 30/65 on the border, be ause Covid cases are receding especially deaths not individual cases and UNVACCINATED IMMIGRANTS aren't a concern that much and criminals at the border have been more and more arrested

Watch FL on election night, it went easily to Trump, DeSantis only beat a socialist Afro American and he is only up 4 pts on Charlie Crist that will give us the story on Election night

We can't concede FL our H races are at stake

I have my doubts Crist is gonna flip FL and we have tons of paths without FL

[MR DARK BRANDON]

It's a bold Predictions, but if Rs can say Craig has a chance with Craig being down 45)41 to Whitmer, so does Charlie Crist he is down by the same margin 45)41 and he hasn't selected a running mate, he is most likely to select a Latina and cut into Latinos vote, it's a 4o percent Latino state

We must target FL, NC because they're the first battleground states of the ELECTION

There is alot of hypocrisy on this forum I see if a D is underwater oh yeah he is gonna lose like Biden and Trump won the Senate and he was underwater in 2018

But if an R is underwater like DeSantis or Kennedy of LA whom won't get 60 percent and will get 49 percent not to avoid a Runoff it's Safe R

Well the thing is polls do underestimate R support in FL

[MR DARK BRANDON]

There is a reason for the contradictory polls Biden is at 50/48 Job Approvals and 43/50, Job Performance the polls that keep giving us these low Approvals are giving his Job Performance but his Personal Approvals are 50/48, Biden won the EC map 50/45  and it's an RH and 53/47 D Senate and Parity I'm Govs but that's what it is now, we don't know what a blue wave would look like in Nov and Early Voting starts in Oct, it's not that important in WI, PA and MI but it is important in OG, IA, NC, LA, MO, FL for our wave insurance candidates lol Biden on Election night with Early vote was leading in FL and McGrath was competetive in KY she was level pegging 45/43 and FL is the first battleground state with Crist and Demings and then NC we need to win THOSE


https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/1081-the-zogby-poll-president-biden-s-job-approval-and-performance-biden-s-job-approval-improves-job-performance-remains-underwater-biden-losing-ground-with-swing-voters

D’s are not gonna win in OH, IA, MO or FL lol

[MR DARK BRANDON]

It's a 304/234 map anyways ZOGBY poll was right all along 50/48 Job Approvals/43/50 Job Performance 223/215 H either way 53/47 Senate D's net WI/PA and GA and LA go into Runoffs that's what the final poll in October is gonna show we have changed so little since 2020

No, Rs aren't gonna sweep everything and D's aren't either😁😁😁😁

Midterms are different from potus elections even if Biden was at 50% approvals democrats would still lose seats

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/momentive-study-psychedelics/

44% Approve
56% Disapprove

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Qtrash;

Approve; 35% (+2)
Disapprove; 55% (+2)

GOP is also +2 in GCB

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3835

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/412ricefarmer/status/1494710205636042756?s=21

Jesus Christ

Yeah more proof that Biden’s low approval is due to the media

[MR DARK BRANDON]

CRAZY FORUMLURKER TOLD YOU ALL!!
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/595881-bidens-job-approval-hits-new-low-poll


64%!!!!! 64% agree that Biden has been weak against Russia!

This is down one point from there last poll

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Why on earth do you guys think this will hurt Biden?

Americans rally to pres during stuff like this

I don’t

[MR DARK BRANDON]

While we’re here dooming about the hill, a MC poll had Biden at 47

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/02/25114353/2202130_crosstabs_GEOPOLITICAL_RISK_INVASION_US_RVs_v2_Method.pdf

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I just had a Dream that it's gonna be a 232 RH and a 53)37 DSenate  but D's will net the 11 seats in 2024 back and have a tied Senate Iin 2024.

That's where it's headed and it's always been headed. That way we're not losing everything as Rs think we will we are gonna hold the Senate with WI and PA

Ukraine isn't hurting the Biden Approvals it's 4 percent unemployment not 11 percent unemployment, like in 2010 that's why we will hold the Freiwal


232 RH and 53)47 DS and 26)24 DGovs net MA, MD, AZ and GA that's where it's headed

It's gonna be Speaker McCarthy and Majority Leader Schumer, KBJ will help us keep the Senate

.Rs can forget about 31 Govs and having a majority Senate the Senate map favors us thru 26 when Collins lose I'm 26

I once had a dream that Biden won 413 in 2020, dosen’t mean it was guaranteed to happen

[MR DARK BRANDON]

As I predicted, Biden's incredibly strong handling of the situation in Ukraine has only caused his approval rating to decline further, as Americans see images of dead Ukrainians on their TV screens and blame Biden for not somehow magically preventing all this from happening.

This stupid country deserves Trump.

Nah it’s literally just due to much gas prices, and Biden’s approval has actually risen slightly according to some polls

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1499362179660800006

It will be a temporary bump. When gas prices are rising so rapidly right now, and when Ukraine falls, Biden will fall down to below 35%.

Biden approval will fall when Russia invades Ukraine Biden’s approval bump is temporary and will fall after gas prices rise

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Just wanted to get a sense of things, so I took a look at the polls released in March, and looked at the change from pre to post SOTU.

Marist +13
Leger +12
Morning Consult +9
Ipsos +7
Quinnipiac +2
TIPP +2
Rasmussen +2

All showed at least some increase, but there are two clear groupings with high quality polls in both camps.  Safe to say Biden got at least something of a bump, we'll see how it pans out.

I’d say that some of it is also due to Biden’s handling of the Russia Ukraine situation

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Trashlolger has Biden at 42%

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1502349209714171907

It will be interesting to see how long this lasts. Why is is that Biden's approvals have gone back up again? Is it because of Ukraine? Or perhaps because the pandemic is finally winding down? If Biden's approvals were to continue on this trajectory, it might reduce the extent of the electoral losses Democrats suffer.

I’d say it’s his Handling of the Ukraine situation

[MR DARK BRANDON]

ABC News/Ipsos (March 11-12)

Biden approval on...
COVID: 56/42 (was 50/49 in January)
Russia/Ukraine: 48/51 (was 41/56 in January)
Climate Change: 44/54 (was 47/51 in January)
Economic Recovery: 41/58 (was 42/56 in January)
Crime: 40/58 (was 34/64 in January)
Immigration: 39/59 (was 34/64 in January)
Inflation: 29/70 (was 29/69 in January)
Gas Prices: 28/70

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-03/Topline%20ABC_Ipsos%20Poll%20March%2012%202022%209%20am%20Embargo.pdf

The fact that pollsters continue to ask about "approval" on issues such as inflation and gas prices is just .... mindboggling

What’s interesting is that. 77% support banning Russian imports even if it leads to higher gas prices

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Biden needs to do what Bernie did in late October, he needs to build on the momentum that he has Been given, RN the narrative is being controlled by the media while only being countered by the awful Democratic messaging. Biden needs to be out there, touring and making public appearances touting his agenda and accomplishments, force the media to give him airtime. His campaign skills are very very underrated.