Full analysis of firms that did multiple states and the national race (not specific statewide pollsters like Marquette, EPIC-MRA, OHPI, DMR, etc.). Their poll first, then in paranthesis their error compared to the result. This is only taking a look at the swing states. Nevermind the red states with "competitive" Senate races, that they botched even harder. And this is only the presidential polls. It only includes their final poll, and only includes data back to September. Anything before that is not included. All results are rounded to the nearest whole number. I will update this thread is state results change (such as OH).
TrafalgarAZ: Trump +3 (R+3)
FL: Trump +2 (D+1)
GA: Trump +5 (R+5)
MI: Trump +2 (R+5)
MN: Biden +3 (R+4)
NV: Trump +1 (R+4)
NC: Trump +2 (R+1)
OH: Trump +5 (D+3)
PA: Trump +2 (R+3)
WI: Biden +1 (0)
Average Error: 2.9
Average Partisan Error: R+2.1
538 Grade: C-
QuinnipiacUS: Biden +11 (D+7)
FL: Biden +5 (D+8)
GA: Biden +7 (D+7)
IA: Trump +1 (D+7)
ME: Biden +21 (D+12)
OH: Biden +4 (D+12)
SC: Trump +1 (D+11)
TX: Tie (D+6)
Average Error: 8.7
Average Partisan Error: D+8.7
538 Grade: B+
SusquehannaAZ: Trump +1 (R+1)
FL: Trump +1 (D+2)
NC: Biden +2 (D+3)
PA: Trump +1 (R+2)
WI: Biden +3 (D+2)
Average Error: 2
Average Partisan Error: D+0.8
538 Grade: C
MonmouthAZ: Biden +7 (D+7)
FL: Biden +6 (D+9)
GA: Biden +4 (D+4)
IA: Biden +3 (D+11)
NC: Biden +4 (D+5)
PA: Biden +7 (D+6)
Average Error: 7.0
Average Partisan Error: D+7.0
538 Grade: A+
NBC/MaristUS: Biden +11 (D+7)
AZ: Tie (0)
FL: Biden +4 (D+7)
MI: Biden +8 (D+5)
NC: Biden +6 (D+7)
PA: Biden +5 (D+4)
WI: Biden +10 (D+9)
Average Error: 5.3
Average Partisan Error: D+5.3
538 Grade: A+
Fox NewsUS: Biden +8 (D+4)
MI: Biden +12 (D+9)
NV: Biden +11 (D+8)
OH: Trump +3 (D+5)
PA: Biden +5 (D+4)
WI: Biden +5 (D+4)
Average Error: 5.7
Average Partisan Error: D+5.7
538 Grade: A-
CNNUS: Biden +12 (D+8)
AZ: Biden +4 (D+4)
MI: Biden +12 (D+9)
NC: Biden +6 (D+7)
PA: Biden +10 (D+9)
WI: Biden +8 (D+7)
Average Error: 7.3
Average Partisan Error: D+7.3
538 Grade: B+
ABC/Washington PostUS: Biden +12 (D+8)
AZ: Trump +1 (R+1)
FL: Trump +2 (D+1)
MI: Biden +7 (D+4)
MN: Biden +16 (D+9)
PA: Biden +7 (D+6)
WI: Biden +17 (D+16)
Average Error: 6.4
Average Partisan Error: D+6.3
538 Grade: A+
NYT/SienaUS: Biden +9 (D+5)
AZ: Biden +6 (D+6)
FL: Biden +3 (D+6)
GA: Tie (0)
IA: Biden +3 (D+11)
ME: Biden +17 (D+8)
MI: Biden +8 (D+5)
MN: Biden +9 (D+2)
NV: Biden +6 (D+3)
NH: Biden +3 (R+4)
NC: Biden +3 (D+4)
OH: Biden +1 (D+9)
PA: Biden +6 (D+5)
SC: Trump +8 (D+4)
TX: Trump +4 (D+2)
WI: Biden +11 (D+10)
Average Error: 5.3
Average Partisan Error: D+5.0
538 Grade: A+
EmersonUS: Biden +5 (D+1)
AZ: Biden +2 (D+2)
FL: Biden +6 (D+9)
GA: Trump +1 (R+1)
IA: Trump +1 (D+7)
ME: Biden +11 (D+2)
MI: Biden +7 (D+4)
NV: Biden +2 (R+1)
NH: Biden +7 (0)
NC: Tie (D+1)
OH: Biden +1 (D+9)
PA: Biden +4 (D+3)
TX: Tie (D+6)
WI: Biden +8 (D+7)
Average Error: 3.8
Average Partisan Error: D+3.6
538 Grade: A-
CNBC/Change ResearchUS: Biden +10 (D+6)
AZ: Biden +3 (D+3)
FL: Biden +3 (D+6)
MI: Biden +7 (D+4)
NC: Biden +2 (D+3)
PA: Biden +4 (D+3)
WI: Biden +8 (D+7)
Average Error: 4.6
Average Partisan Error: D+4.6
538 Grade: C-
Reuters/IpsosUS: Biden +7 (D+3)
AZ: Biden +2 (D+2)
FL: Biden +4 (D+7)
MI: Biden +10 (D+7)
NC: Biden +1 (D+2)
PA: Biden +6 (D+5)
WI: Biden +10 (D+9)
Average Error: 5.0
Average Partisan Error: D+5.0
538 Grade: B-
CBS/YougovAZ: Biden +3 (D+3)
FL: Biden +2 (D+5)
GA: Tie (0)
IA: Tie (D+8)
MI: Biden +6 (D+3)
MN: Biden +9 (D+2)
NV: Biden +6 (D+3)
NC: Biden +4 (D+5)
OH: Tie (D+8)
SC: Trump +10 (D+2)
TX: Trump +2 (D+4)
WI: Biden +5 (D+4)
Average Error: 3.9
Average Partisan Error: D+3.9
538 Grade: B
The Hill/HarrisXUS: Biden +4 (0)
FL: Biden +3 (D+6)
MI: Biden +11 (D+8)
NC: Biden +1 (D+2)
PA: Biden +5 (D+4)
Average Error: 4
Average Partisan Error: D+4.0
538 Grade: C
RasmussenUS: Biden +1 (R+3)
AZ: Trump +4 (R+4)
FL: Biden +1 (D+4)
MI: Biden +8 (D+5)
NV: Biden +1 (R+2)
NH: Biden +14 (D+7)
NC: Trump +1 (0)
OH: Trump +4 (D+4)
PA: Biden +3 (D+2)
TX: Trump +7 (R+1)
WI: Biden +8 (D+7)
Average Error: 3.5
Average Partisan Error: D+1.7
538 Grade: C+
USA Today/SuffolkUS: Biden +8 (D+4)
AZ: Biden +4 (D+4)
MN: Biden +7 (0)
PA: Biden +7 (D+6)
Average Error: 3.5
Average Partisan Error: D+3.5
538 Grade: A
SurveyUSAUS: Biden +8 (D+4)
GA: Biden +2 (D+2)
MN: Biden +5 (R+2)
NC: Tie (D+1)
Average Error: 2.3
Average Partisan Error: D+1.8
538 Grade: A
PPPSee
this thread538 Grade: B
InsiderAdvantageFL: Trump +1 (D+2)
GA: Trump +2 (R+2)
IA: Trump +2 (D+6)
MI: Biden +2 (R+1)
NC: Trump +4 (R+3)
PA: Trump +2 (R+3)
Average Error: 2.8
Average Partisan Error: R+0.2
538 Grade: B-
So, as you can see, the least accurate pollsters of the cycle are the most well regarded by 538 and the general election community for being "high-quality" and "reputable". The most accurate pollsters, regarded as "right-wing", are declared to be fake, fraudelent, and undeserving of even being considered (Susquehanna, Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and InsiderAdvantage).
Trafalgar, after all the abuse they took for months, turns out to be more accurate than almost every single other pollster. Even though they do have a Republican bias, which should be noted. SurveyUSA, Susquehanna, Emerson, and CBS/Yougov didn't do that bad either. But the others... Nate Cohn's NYT/Siena, Monmouth, Quinnipiac, ABC/WaPo, Fox News, Marist, all were off
on average 5 points or more. A complete disaster. Hopefully this is a wake up call for future elections, this is not going to get any better unless there is honesty and introspection about why this has happened and has been happening. But if history repeats itself and we find ourselves in one years time believing all the polls from supposed high-quality pollsters like they're gospel again, then we just want to believe what confirms what we want to happen. And we'll continue being wrong about elections, always overestimating Democrats, election after election.
