Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

Finally PP leader Pablo Casado reveals that his party will vote "No" to Santiago Abascal and launches an attack on VOX.

Defensive movement?

Listening to it, Casado's speech sounds very very moderate, especially compared to what we are used to.

[Former President tack50]

Why do they post stuff that comes across like it was made by edgy 15 year-olds.

Well they need to appeal to the younger demographic somehow.

Something that goes rather underrated is that Vox is actually quite weak among old people. They seem to peak among the 30-44 demographic.

However Vox also has an extremely strong vote among young men; and in fact Vox won a narrow plurality among said demographic.

I never know how accurate this is and I tend to post it more often than I should tbh, but here is the graph of vote split by age and gender:



Of course, with Vox the big story is actually the huge gender split and not the age split, but a significant age split still exists.

[Former President tack50]

As someone who comes from another Southern European country, gotta say that this graphic is decidedly unsurprising. By the way, is there data on party preference by religious attendance?

Not really, religion is an extremely underrepresented issue on Spanish politics. Still to add to what Sergi said:

With the CIS polls we can get an idea since they have a ton of questions. They are PSOE leaning so the "top line" number will be wrong; but I think the general pattern should still hold.

Anyways, here is the crosstabs chart for the religion question, with people also being asked who they voted for on November 2019; according to the latest CIS poll:

Not sure if the image will display properly



Options from top to bottom:
>Practising Catholic
>Non-Practising Catholic
>Another Religion
>Agnostic
>Indifferent/Non-believer
>Atheist
>Refuse to Answer

Excluding the parties with super small sample sizes, my conclusions would be:

• PSOE seems fairly representative of the Spanish population at large
• PP extremely overperforming among religious Catholics
• Vox slightly overperforms among Non-practising Catholics and slightly underperforms among non-religious people
• UP extremely overperforms among agnostics and atheists and underperforms among all Catholics
• Cs overperforms by a lot among Non-practising Catholics, and slightly underperforms among atheists (but interestingly not the other 2 non-religious categories)

So for the question you are going to ask, devout Catholics are a titanium PP demographic

Then again that's definitely at least partially a function of old people being extremely heavily for the 2 traditional parties (PSOE and PP).

[Former President tack50]

Santiago Abascal said yesterday that "thousands upon thousands" of women and homosexuals support Vox and not the left. Literally it's true that Vox has thousands of female voters, but all post-election analyses say that Vox is the party with a lowest proportion of female vote (30% or even less). It was somewhat hilarious to see the comments of Vox supporters over that sentence. The question is, what's the relative value of "thousands upon thousands" compared to the millions who are against Vox

To be fair, for all their talk about feminism and what not, Podemos is the party with the 2nd lowest percentage of female voters.

Honestly for all the talk about young women being super left wing and what not (whether in Spain or abroad); I honestly just think that men are more "extremist" and women are more moderate in their political leanings; whether on the left or on the right.

[Former President tack50]

Why do they post stuff that comes across like it was made by edgy 15 year-olds.

Well they need to appeal to the younger demographic somehow.

Something that goes rather underrated is that Vox is actually quite weak among old people. They seem to peak among the 30-44 demographic.

However Vox also has an extremely strong vote among young men; and in fact Vox won a narrow plurality among said demographic.

I never know how accurate this is and I tend to post it more often than I should tbh, but here is the graph of vote split by age and gender:



Of course, with Vox the big story is actually the huge gender split and not the age split, but a significant age split still exists.

Am I missing something here? All of the parties except the PSOE have a lower % of the vote than what they obtained.

I have absolutely no idea why El Español put the data like that.

[Former President tack50]

Nice that my region is the only one that won't have a curfew, though I fear that just means we will have it later.

Still the islands have been doing pretty good so hopefully we won't need it. Ironically I am somewhat worried about tourists coming here since Europe is in horrible shape, there should be tons of controls in place.

[Former President tack50]

On that note, here is a ranking of the COVID performance by autonomous community. I used the same methodology I used for the countries ranking I did a while back.

Basically, take Cases/100k as a % of the national average and Deaths/100k as a % of the national average; and then average the 2.

So, here it goes. This even divides quite well into tiers! Colours represent the party in power regionally.

Madrid
Madrid: 202%

Very bad
La Rioja: 175%
Castille La Mancha: 175%
Navarra: 165%
Castille-Leon: 163%
Aragon: 163%

Worse than the national average
Basque Country: 121%
Catalonia: 109%

Better than the national average
Extremadura: 77%

Very good
Melilla: 63%
Cantabria: 62%
Murcia: 57%
Balearic Islands: 54%
Valencia: 47%
Andalucia: 47%
Asturias: 46%
Galicia: 45%
Ceuta: 41%

Canary Islands
Canary Islands: 26%

[Former President tack50]

Lol, it's obviously a smear campaign.

https://twitter.com/GirautaOficial/status/1320358681641422848?s=20
(Spanish public radio and television service)

I don't even know what you are trying to say by this. Taking Girauta's tweet at face value; I don't think anyone, not even Vox, would support outright closing down RTVE. I have a hard time imagining even privatizing RTVE; it fulfills several roles that wouldn't be served by private channels.

Even if we restrict ourselves to TV, TVE has channels that aren't replicated elsewhere like 24h (which is still the only 24/7 news station in Spain, bias or not), TDP (niche sports), most content in La 2 or even Clan to an extent (which has a niche in "small" children aged like 3-7; compared to Disney Channel and Boing catering to a slightly older audience of like 7-13 year olds). La 1 is the iffiest one and even it works by puglishing several Spanish TV series and what not (though it has the weakest argument)

Plus, do we really need Atresmedia or Mediaset controlling our TV even more?

As for bias, well, may I remind you that TVE has always been biased towards the party in government. The most infamous right wing bias example is the "ce ce o o" thing during the Aznar years. And of course there were tons of examples during the González and Rajoy eras.

[Former President tack50]

I am personally very pessimistic at a deal with ERC, considering the Catalan elections are just around the corner and what not.

[Former President tack50]

Haha, take that Greece!

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, I mostly agree with Mimoha here. I personally do not like Bildu. However, I am also not too worried about it. I'd rather not have the Sanchez government do deals with them but I the math is what it is, and unfortunately it seems having support from both ERC and Cs will be impossible.

As for the ETA victims, of course one of the concessions has to be that Bildu condemns violence more emphatically. I think they already do, but still probably not enough.

In a way, I consider Bildu roughly an equivalent to Sinn Fein, another party I absolutely despise.

To be honest, I have no idea how PSOE should deal with Bildu. On one hand they are a party whose voters and seats are just as valid as those of Vox. This is no longer the 80s and 90s when the HB=ETA association was clear and ETA was murdering dozens of people every year. Bildu is a coalition of several parties, some who are spiritual successors to the old Batasuna; but others were in opposition to it and clearly condemned ETA's terrorism in the 90s and 00s (Aralar, Eusko Alkartasuna).

On the other hand, it is still an extremely hard pill to swallow for PSOE to negotiate with a party that, only 12 years ago, had some of its members murdering your own representatives in cold blood.

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, I think the Bildu active support was not negotiated by PSOE (maybe by UP, but even that's far from certain)

In fact, their support almost feels to me as a blank cheque lol.

It's not like the Navarra "big brain" maths to get Chivite elected regional premier, where GBai negotiated with Bildu to abstain while PSOE negotiated with GBai or something like that.

[Former President tack50]

Pablo Iglesias is clearly mocking all his haters in Tweeter; whom apparently use that hashtag. Not a fan of Iglesias wearing his hair in a  bun (moño), but far right trolls are gonna hate regardless his hairstyle

Wasn't his nickname "El Coletas"?

It was and still is called that way often.

[Former President tack50]

You are the internet equivalent of a cani. Pipe down and put your gelpot and white polo tshirt away.

I mean, most canis would actually not wear polo tshirts but rather sports tracksuits or other similar stuff

[Former President tack50]

Yesterday, the "Organic Law for the Modification of the Organic Education Law", but more commonly known as the "Celaá Act" after minister of education Isabel Celaá, passed the parliamentary comisions and will shortly be voted upon by the entire Congress.

This is a very controversial education law which the Spanish right has critizised a lot recently, and has even seen some protests and concentrations against it. Here are some of the main points from the bill:

> Spanish will no longer be recognized as the "Vehicular language" of education. This basically means that a right to get a Spanish education in Catalonia is no longer guaranteed. Catalonia's education laws, unlike those from the other regions with cooficial languages mandate that catalan is the only language of education. The other regions give parents the choice of language to educate their kids.

> The Religion class will no longer count towards your GPA equivalent, for the purposes of university access and what not.

> A new Ethic and Civic values class gets added to the primary and middle school curriculum

> Repeating a school year shall be considered exceptional and is no longer automatic. Basically, rules about repeating a school year have been loosened and now it won't be an automatic thing (More than X failed classes = repeat year) and students may pass with 1-2 failed classes

> Following from the above, students are now able to get their "Bachillerato title" (year 12) with up to 1 failed class

> Charter schools may not segregate students based upon gender

> 10 years from now, schools must be able to give classes to disabled students

> The main criteria for school choice when demand overtakes supply shall be siblings in the school, rent and proximity

> The "social demand" criteria when deciding whether or not to authorize the creation of new charter schools is abolished

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4479611/0/ley-celaa-lomloe-espanol-lengua-vehicular-eleccion-centro-educacion-especial/


My personal opinion on this bill is that it is rather meh. I do not oppose it, but given it is a partial repeal of the older Wert act from the Rajoy government, it doesn't really tackle other important points I think, like the infamous examinations and what not.

The right wing criticism comes in 3 flavours I think:

1) An "attack" on charter schools: I am personally in favour of most of the measures here. Public education should be the norm and defended by the state over charter schools. In fact the entire concept of charer schools was thought of as a temporary bandaid in the 1980s! There is nothing as permanent as a temporary solution

2) Spanish being removed from schools in Catalonia: The usual nationalist stuff, this was after an amendment from ERC was accepted. I don't care that much given that the status quo in Catalonia was already little to no Spanish education on public schools. Though I will say that I prefer the Basque model of school choice over Catalonia forcing everyone to learn in Catalan

3) The Socialists promoting mediocrity and allowing people with failed subjects to pass: The only criticism I agree with, this bill will make classes even easier to pass. There is a reason why university professors say (rightly) that their students each year get dumber and dumber. School contents and difficulty have been gradually reduced.

When I was in high school, to study I actually used my parents' BUP and COU books from the 1970s instead of my very own books! Why? Because the things my parents did were harder and that way I was better prepared. Having to do math exercises with pesetas was certainly weird but still.

I don't think we should make school easier tbh. Bachillerato and especially ESO are not that hard to pass. I am not saying we should make it harder either, but certainly not any easier. The LOGSE from 1990 probably already reduced education difficulty more than enough.


Fun fact: This will be the 8th education law passed since 1970, and 7th since democracy started.

The fact that so many education bills have been passed is hilarious. In fact, my brother has actually studied under 4 different education bills from 4 different governments! (Granted Aznar's LOCE was never fully implemented but still)

[Former President tack50]

Tbh I find it kind of ironic that ERC is now supporting centralization and meddling on the affairs of the regions

[Former President tack50]

Tbh I find it kind of ironic that ERC is now supporting centralization and meddling on the affairs of the regions

Ironic? This cannot be the first time a Spanish regional party promotes "regionalism for me but not for thee", is it?

Maybe ir seems ironic coming from ERC, but tax dumping affects Catalonia too. On the other hand, fiscal harmonization does not strike as a centralist measure to me. Rather I think federal countries should embarace it and discourage policies that create fiscal imbalances. Moreover, Madrid is the region containing the capital of Spain and should lead by example. But the Madrid regional governments have chosen instead to become a tax haven for millionaires, at the expense of public services (years of budget cuts affect public healthcare in times of pandemic) and the rest of Spain. It's quite ironic and hypocritical to see rightwing leaders in Madrid crying at the lack of solidarity of Catalans and Basques, while taking advantage of dumping practices and the advantages of being the capital.  Some people is beginning to compare the 'rebel' Ayuso with the Catalan separatist leaders, because there's a common ground in what concerns the lack of solidarity and sense of state. If ERC is truly interested in tax reform and harmonization, that's excellent news. I fear the ongoing conflict will benefit Ayuso in Madrid, though. The Spanish Right will claim there's an attack on Madrid based on hatred from Catalonia, as it happened when Health minister Salvador Illa was accused by the PP of hating Madrid when he enforced the state of emergency in the region

The people of Madrid have voted PP for decades now (Tamayazo not withstanding); on a platform of austerity + tax cuts. I do not agree with that platform, but the people of Madrid have decided that is the model they want for their region. Who is ERC to deny them such privilege?

I am in favour of fiscal balancing, and of rich regions supporting the poorer ones (this is something the EU actually does quite well and that we could pull off nationally too). But this should not be done by the federal government meddling on the affairs of the regions. If the people of Madrid want low taxes and sh*tty healthcare, let them have it. Just likehow Catalonia probably prefers higher taxes and a good safety net.

Bonus points when you consider that the Basque Country has a special tax model that is much closer to "tax dumping" than whatever Madrid does, yet I don't see ERC wanting to abolish it (ftr I do not support abolishing it, but that just adds to the hypocresy)

[Former President tack50]

Tbh I find it kind of ironic that ERC is now supporting centralization and meddling on the affairs of the regions

Ironic? This cannot be the first time a Spanish regional party promotes "regionalism for me but not for thee", is it?

Probably not, but I can't think of all that many examples. The only one I can remember right now is that the Catalan statute of 2006, as originally written, had a provision that directly meddled in the affairs of other regions, saying something like:

-The financial resources of Catalonia may be adjusted to better balance regional development in Spain, provided other regions do a similar fiscal effort

That was one of the 14 articles that were completely deleted as unconstitutional though. (unsurprising as that was blatantly unconstitutional)

[Former President tack50]

Anyway:
1. I'm surprised #trends haven't hit the region of Madrid yet.
2. [citation needed] on your comment about the EU, because it seems to me that it's always damn complicated to get that.
3. Your above post is a good explanation (not that I needed any - we are on a mainly American forum) of why I think federalism generally sucks.

1) Yeah, while there has been movement in Madrid lately, it is not the usual #trends of the cities going far left. The posh areas of Madrid (Salamanca neighbourhood) and upper class western suburbs (Las Rozas, Majadahonda, etc) thankfully still give the right routinely 70% or more. As things should be

Iirc Madrid is one of very few European capitals (maybe the only one?) that votes to the right of the country.

Whether or not #trends will eventually hit is a mystery, but for now Madrid remains something like 7 points to the right of Spain at large. Winnable in a wave, but not by much.

2) My thought was that the EU's regional development funds do a great job at propping up the less developed areas of the EU. Spain certainly benefited from this in the 80s and 90s; and nowadays it is Eastern Europe that is catching up very fast to Western Europe.

We just need a similar scheme at the national level.

[Former President tack50]

1) The PP was not the winner of the last regional elecction, it was the PSOE the party with the most votes. However, the parties right of the centre won a majority and they certainly support los taxes. Nevertheless the people of Madrid did not give a clear mandate yo Ayuso: she governs because the "centrist liberals" opted for our kitsch version of Donald Trump instead of the reasonable Ángel Gabilondo. Right now the region of Madrid and the whole Spain could have been governed by a centrist 'social-liberal' coalition. Never forget it was the decision of Albert Rivera, not the will of the people of Madrid

2) I heard Spain is the only European country where income and inheritance taxes are decentralized. There are good reasons yo think that's a mistake. Madrid is a central region containing the capital of Spain, as well a wealthy region that can afford lowering faxes, attracting top earners from elsewhere in Spain. Other regiones lack the resources avalaible in Madrid and cannot afford such low taxes nor compete with the wealthy capital. That's a clear example of tax dumping. Key principales of a federal state should be solidarity and corresponsobility. Fiscal harmonization consists in establishing superior and inferior limits to taxes. That's not meddling un regional affairs, but establishing the game rules. The government has been considering harmonization before the deal with ERC. It's not only Catalonia; Valencia premier Ximo Puig already complained against tax dumping.However, it was a clear mistake on the part of ERC spokesman Gabriel Rufián to raise the question of harmonization as a battle against the Madrid's "fiscal oasis". Rufián has made a big favor to Ayuso, who is a big fan of cultural battles. Such conflicts could lead eventually to the failure of reform attempts

3) The Concierto Económico, the tax system ruling un Basque Country and Navarra, is completely unrelated to this question. These regions collect taxes in a different way, but a tax harmonization would affect them regardless. By no means the Concierto Económico is a form of tax dumping: we are talking about tax rates, not about tax systems. As for the solidarity, these regions put money into the joint fund through the "cupo", which is an amount is negotiated with the central government. It's a systems deeply entrenched in the tradition of these regions that works well. It does not neccessarily imply privilege or  lack of solidarity, as some centralist folks claim. Remember that we have in the Canaries another kind of special tax system, too

Spain as a whole has a lot of pending reforms, including administration, tax system and the functioning of the decentralized state

1) I mean, for better or worse Spain is locked into a 2 blocks policy right now; and the right won a comfortable majority in 2019 (they also won the popular vote). You'd have good arguments for 2015 (the right loses the popular vote but gets a majority due to IU falling below the threshold) or 2003 (see: Tamayazo). Of course, that still conveniently forgets about the 2 times the Madrid voters gave PP massive majorities under notoriously right wing premier Esperanza Aguirre (2007 & 2011); or 1995 & 1999 for that matter.

Cs decided to go with a right wing coalition in Madrid and that's their choice. Voters will reward (or punish) them accordingly 4 years from now. But the mandate is certainly there for further tax cuts and what not.

2) I mean, this is an American forum, where even sales tax is decentralized! But the US aren't in Europe so fair point.

I do know Madrid is a rich region and that is why I want strong rebalancing programs to counter that, but taxation should still be quite decentralized (more than now in fact, not less). Madrid, for virtue of being the capital and biggest metropolitan area is always going to be richer than average, but that is not a reason to kill its autonomy? It is a reason for better rebalancing programs, but not for centralism.

3) I used the Concierto as an example where the tax dumping is arguably clearer than in Madrid's case. Madrid at least gives more in taxes than it gets back from the central government. But despite the Basque Country (and Navarra) being 2 of the richest regions in Spain, they also take more in taxes than they give in return!

I also remember some takes about how the concierto allows the 2 regions to change corporation tax, and a lower corporation tax means that companies prefer to operate in Álava than in La Rioja across the border; leading to negative effects on La Rioja's economy.

I do agree on the need for reforms though; as the Catalonia situation shows very clearly. But when 35% of the country wants recentralization and a further 20% wants independence, I think the status quo is likely to stay as a lesser evil.

[Former President tack50]

Velasco simplemente es un hackish lo he dicho desde siempre. Lol imagina creer que los votantes de Cs querían un gobierno con el Psoe.

Solo mira lo que dice de el supuesto "castigo a Rivera", Cs obtuvo su mejor resultado histórico después de la foto de colon, no antes. Ese supuesto "castigo" sin fundamento alguno, se debió en gran medida a la vuelta de votantes de Cs al PP o a Vox. De ser cierto ese supuesto "castigo" por apoyar a la derecha, entonces esos votantes habrían acudido en masa al Psoe, el partido que Velasco define como "Benevolente de centro izquierda (Con el mayor caso de corrupción de la historia de España y además de terrorismo institucionalizado), no a la "extrema derecha" de Vox y el PP.

Lo suyo me imagino que sería usar el inglés aquí no? Yo también me sentiría más cómodo en español pero es lo que hay. Aunque sea por educación al resto de foreros.

That being said...

First of all, Velasco is a perfectly fine poster with whom I agree on some topics and disagree on others, just like everyone else. He is far from the biggest hack on the forum.

Regarding a PSOE-Cs deal, I will note that a big amount of Cs voters outright didn't vote in November 2019. Sure, a lot of them went to PP and Vox because they feared a deal with PSOE and Cs last ditch flip flops. But an amount just as large stayed at home on election day because they were disappointed at the so-called centrists not doing a deal with PSOE.

The 2nd group is arguably smaller than the first, but not by that much. Polling from the time gave roughly a 60-40 split between those who wanted Cs to stick with Sanchez rejection, and those who wanted a PSOE-Cs deal.

[Former President tack50]

You know the old saying that "Libertarians are Republicans that like to smoke weed"?. Well seems like we are doing it the opposite way around

[Former President tack50]

So today the Spanish budget finally passed the Congress of Deputies. It still needs to pass the Senate but that should be comparatively easy (and if needed, the Congress can override the Senate anyways)

The vote ended up going like this:

Aye: 188 (PSOE, UP, ERC, Bildu, PNV, Más País, Compromís, NCa, PRC, TEx and PDECat*
Nay: 154 (PP, Vox, Cs, CUP, CC, UPN, Foro and JxCat*)
Abstain: 1 (BNG)

Here is a list of the main changes the budget brings:

> Income Tax is increased for high earners: Goes up by 3 points for salaries over 200k€ and by a further 2 points on salaries over 300k€
> Wealth Tax increase: Goes up by 1 point for people with over 10 million € in wealth
> Loopholes regarding corporate tax are closed
> Real Estate Investment Trusts must pay at least 15% in corporate taxes

> Pensions will be raised: Standard pensions go up by 0.9% and "non contributive pensions" (intended for widows who were stay at home mums their entire lives and what not, generally lower than regular pensions) go up by 1.8%. This is despite inflation in Spain being negative in 2020 (because COVID)
> Tax deductions for private pension plans are cut

> University scolarship money is increased by 250 million
> Paternity leave is increased: It will now be equal to maternity leave at 16 weeks, with 100% pay.

> IPREM (an income value used to calculate certain benefits) goes up by 5%, so more people will be able to request public funds
> Local administrations and autonomous communities will be allowed to impose rent control if they want. Already existing rent control bills (most notably in Catalonia) are grandfathered in.

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4432564/0/limites-al-precio-del-alquiler-ampliacion-del-ingreso-minimo-y-subida-fiscal-las-claves-del-proyecto-de-presupuestos/?autoref=true
https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4498192/0/el-congreso-da-luz-verde-a-los-presupuestos-y-el-gobierno-ya-acaricia-su-aprobacion-final/?autoref=true

Regarding PDECat/JxCat*:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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JxCat seems to have recently split in Congress into 2 factions. A more hardline secessionist and personalist faction supporting Puigdemont that kept the JxCat name; and the faction belonging to PDECat, less hardline on independence and who don't want to be a party solely centered around Puigdemont. If I am not mistaken both sides have 4 MPs each in the Spanish Congress.

In any case, JxCat and the Puigdemont faction is the one that will get most of the voting base; while PDECat is doomed to fail just like most other "moderate centre-right secessionist" parties. The "post CiU space" in Catalonia is a big headache.

[Former President tack50]

To get an idea of Catalonia's political geography, here is a map I recently did of the 2017 election by block (secessionists vs unionists; UP was ignored):



The graduations go in blocks of 10, so the lightest colour is 40-50%; then 50-60%; etc

Most unionist county of Catalonia (only one where they break 60%) is the Aran Valley in the Pyrinees, though the bigger unionist counties over 50% are Baix Llobregat (Barcelona suburbs), Tarragones (Tarragona) and Baix Penedes (coastal county near Tarragona, surprisingly unionist for a rural-ish area)

Most secessionist areas are of course the rurals, with Pla de l'Estany (small county in Girona province), Priorat (inland county in Tarragona province) and Pallars Sobira (in the Pyrinees); though most of inland rural Catalonia is super secessionist anyways. Only exceptions being Segrià (home to the provincial capital and border town of Lleida) and Alta Ribagorça (very small population, probably home to rich skiers from Castille or with influence from the Aran Valley or something)

[Former President tack50]

Given the current rethoric and debate about the monarchy, I wonder if a constitutional amendment to repeal immunity would be able to pass in the nearby future.

Cs has at times paid some lip service to such a reform, and I imagine all the secessionists as well as PSOE/UP would support such a reform. Not like it matters since PP+Vox alone have just barely enough MPs to block even the smallest of constitutional reforms (reforming the monarchy requires 234 votes to even begin the process; all non PP/Vox parties hold only 209).

To be fair an argument I've seen from some right wingers seems to be along the lines of "I am in favour of a Republic, but I am not in favour of Pablo Iglesias' Democratic Bolivarian Republic of Spain". Which seems like a very cheap excuse to me but still.

However I could easily see Cs using an argument like that to vote down such a reform.