2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please (user search)
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please  (Read 145160 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
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Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« on: June 27, 2018, 04:58:58 PM »
Beutler is a fake mexican.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
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Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2018, 06:27:45 PM »

Weak Lean D.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
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Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2018, 03:52:53 PM »
Quote from: Arkansas Yankee on July 05, 2018, 02:41:20 PM
This is not a good poll for Nelson.  An incumbent D in a supposed D wave year should be doing better.

58% of Nelson voters say they might vote differently.  Only 42% of Scott’s voter say that.

I think the debates will be important.

Yeah, Nelson really needs to gear up for them.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2018, 01:40:02 PM »
Sad numbers for Levin.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2018, 02:24:44 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on July 10, 2018, 02:19:11 PM
Yikes in CA-25, meh in MN-03, and pretty good in NJ-03.



NJ 3 is good, the others are terrible.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2018, 12:51:07 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on July 16, 2018, 12:50:03 PM
IA-03 (Axne internal from ALG Research):

Axne (D) 45
Young (R-inc) 41

GCB: Dems lead 47-38

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000164-a0ef-d844-adf5-e5ef30a40001

Holy wow, that blindsided me. I expected Young to have a comfy lead.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2018, 12:58:37 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 16, 2018, 12:54:02 PM
Quote from: Bagel23 on July 16, 2018, 12:51:07 PM
Quote from: ON Progressive on July 16, 2018, 12:50:03 PM
IA-03 (Axne internal from ALG Research):

Axne (D) 45
Young (R-inc) 41

GCB: Dems lead 47-38

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000164-a0ef-d844-adf5-e5ef30a40001

Holy wow, that blindsided me. I expected Young to have a comfy lead.

Well, it's an Axne internal, and the usual rule of thumb for internals is to subtract 5 points from the net difference.  But that still indicates a very close race.

Five points is a bit dramatic, and even in that case a one point lead is not exactly comfy.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2018, 02:20:07 PM »
Quote from: Doctor Imperialism on July 16, 2018, 02:15:00 PM
Quote from: Mondale on July 16, 2018, 02:13:20 PM
Quote from: Ebsy on July 16, 2018, 02:08:38 PM


Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

I think McCain would resign before Ducey got sworn in, even considering Arizona's same-party appointment laws.

Even if we got a dem Gubna though, wouldn't they have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat opens up?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2018, 02:23:58 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 16, 2018, 02:21:27 PM
Quote from: Bagel23 on July 16, 2018, 02:20:07 PM
Quote from: Doctor Imperialism on July 16, 2018, 02:15:00 PM
Quote from: Mondale on July 16, 2018, 02:13:20 PM
Quote from: Ebsy on July 16, 2018, 02:08:38 PM


Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

I think McCain would resign before Ducey got sworn in, even considering Arizona's same-party appointment laws.

Even if we got a dem Gubna though, wouldn't they have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat opens up?

Yes, Republican Party would get to pick 3 choices and the Governor would get to pick from that list. Personally, this is my favorite way for Senatorial replacements.

If I was the Gubna, I'd pick the weakest one and then hope that Gallego challenges them at the next election.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2018, 03:05:12 PM »
I think people are seriously looking over TX 32nd. I used to think it was safe R, but it has tightened over time. The only poll out, yes with generic dem shows Sessions down, he is being outraised (he will still have enough but yeah) And according to that ppp poll, 51% of people here say they would be less likely to vote for somebody who supports the tax scam. And we got a really solid dem candidate and a libertarian to siphon some GOP votes. The district pvi also pretty much falls within the moe of our GCB leads at least on rcp. That's my case for this district that should be regarded as tilt R, and just to prove I'm still sane, I still think Sessions narrowly wins.

I'm just saying it's not getting the attention it deserves.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2018, 11:50:07 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 23, 2018, 10:14:35 AM
It's on, like Donkey Kong:



Lamb will be leading by 5-6.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2018, 12:20:29 PM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on July 23, 2018, 12:18:06 PM
FL-25 Diaz-Balart is trouble?

Initial ask:

Quote
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After gun control questions:
Quote
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Full results:
https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/FL-CD-25-ARS-May-2018-2-Questionnaire-1.pdf

Not really but one to keep an eye on.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2018, 06:35:53 PM »
« Edited: July 23, 2018, 07:50:04 PM by Bagel23 »
I'm happy with early voting by party in Ohio, but I remember when absentees were reported in 2017 Alabama Senate GE, Moore was only leading by 18 or 19 points in Winston county, by the end of the night, it was well over 60 points.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2018, 10:00:32 AM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on July 24, 2018, 09:11:15 AM
CO-06:



Nice.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2018, 10:04:36 AM »
Quote from: westroopnerd on July 24, 2018, 10:01:29 AM

AHHHHHHHH YES LAMB

Rothfus is getting smothered lol.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #15 on: July 24, 2018, 10:17:17 AM »
Lamb brought out the mint jelly and is smothering Rothfus
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #16 on: July 24, 2018, 10:40:03 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 24, 2018, 10:39:03 AM
Nice.

... but how did the new district vote on 2016 (Trump vs. Hillary) for comparison ?


Trump edged out the new district by like 2-3 points and actually narrowly lost the Allegheny county part of the district.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #17 on: July 25, 2018, 05:34:23 PM »
Quote from: Bandit3 the Worker on July 25, 2018, 05:33:46 PM
Is that whiny crybaby Stewart Mills III running again?

No
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #18 on: July 29, 2018, 09:12:17 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on July 29, 2018, 09:09:16 PM
CA-50:



Those are terrible numbers for Hunter.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #19 on: July 29, 2018, 09:20:58 PM »
Quote from: Zaybay on July 29, 2018, 09:18:32 PM
Quote from: ON Progressive on July 29, 2018, 09:09:16 PM
CA-50:


woah, these are terrible. If this is true, then the house is already in D hands.

Simmer down a bit, you gotta also remember that Hunter has a scandal and plenty of skeletons come out of his closet since his last GE.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #20 on: July 31, 2018, 12:32:36 PM »
Quote from: Fmr. Pres. Griff on July 31, 2018, 12:23:38 PM
Not that it really matters, but:

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Hot dang!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2018, 12:10:31 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on August 01, 2018, 12:07:31 PM


Son of Balder will win.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2018, 12:29:13 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on August 01, 2018, 12:27:53 PM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on August 01, 2018, 12:10:31 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on August 01, 2018, 12:07:31 PM


Son of Balder will win.

Eh, I'm not so sure anymore.

Good news though, look at the crosstabs, only 32% of Monmouth's poll was from Franklin.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #23 on: August 01, 2018, 12:39:23 PM »
Monmouth should do TX 32nd next.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83
« Reply #24 on: August 06, 2018, 07:16:25 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on August 06, 2018, 07:15:01 PM
Ami Bera looks safe. This is a Grant internal.

Bera (D): 50%
Grant (R): 41%
Undecided: 9%


Good, but Bart Stupak would be leading by twenty.
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