GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

For Warnock to only win by 1 would be a major disappointment, if obviously still a win in the end. Walker is barely coherent, and would lose by 20 without racial and partisan tribalism. It would be a sobering signal that Georgia ultimately still has a clear Republican lean.

Needle has jumped to Warnock +1.8. Seems to be adjusting to strong metro ATL margins for Warnock. Call me foolish, but I honestly still think it leans too far towards Walker. Currently they're predicting the Gwinnett and Chatham (Savannah) E-Day vote to be near even. While that could happen, it still seems not so plausible.

(adding this quote for posterity, this is around when I first opened the NYT tab)

Does anyone know what dropped that caused the needle to swing towards Walker?

Needle was turned off and the race was virtually tied at 64% of the vote in when I started checking this thread. Reverend and Quarterback have been trading leads for the last hour or so, right now it's 50.07-49.93 Walker at 82% in. 18:46 edit: nvm I see the needle now, it puts Warnock's chances of winning at >95%. Walker's lead has increased to 50.15-49.85 (8.7k raw vote margin)

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

That's a lie.  Atlas'ers don't go to parties

But y'all go on a ton of (in-person) dates- and if the LGBT caucus is any indication, clearly aren't lacking in sexual partners.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

That's a lie.  Atlas'ers don't go to parties

But y'all go on a ton of (in-person) dates- and if the LGBT caucus is any indication, clearly aren't lacking in sexual partners.

I don't understand why we even have the needle half the time.  ****Ing thing sucks! (We'll do it live!)

And y'all as in me or Atlas?

The Leipverse as a whole when we exclude asexuals and high schoolers. Judging from what I've seen on AAD, the Discord servers, and my own lived experience.

The needle must've come back a few minutes ago, I swear it wasn't there the last time I checked my phone.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Walker overperformances in Northern Georgia are scary.

Considering like three hicks live in Northern Georgia, the literal setting of Deliverance, it doesn't scare me that much. I mean actually BEING there would be scary but how they vote is unsurprising.

Idk, three hicks is more than enough to make a KY Wildman squeal like a pig.

Current results are 50.11-49.89 Reverend with 85% estimated vote in.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Walker overperformances in Northern Georgia are scary.

Considering like three hicks live in Northern Georgia, the literal setting of Deliverance, it doesn't scare me that much. I mean actually BEING there would be scary but how they vote is unsurprising.

Idk, three hicks is more than enough to make a KY Wildman squeal like a pig.

Current results are 50.11-49.89 Reverend with 85% estimated vote in.

It has already been called by everyone who knows what they are talking about. Sorry they apparently don't teach math in Oregon as well as they do in Kentucky.

Hey I never seriously thought Walker would win anytime this last month. It's just that every time I check the tab on my phone I see TX-resident version of Trump make gains. I'll be happy if the race ends up at 51-49 Warnock as opposed to the 50.06-49.94 margin I'm seeing right now with 89% of the vote in.

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Always good to see you back in style!

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Forsyth has also gotten a notable Asian population growing very very fast. I imagine that also has some impact on the politics. I hope Michelle Au runs for SD-48 at some point, she seemed like a really great State Senator though trying to run for re-election as a Senator under the new maps would've been political suicide this cycle. If Ds want any chance of flipping the State Senate this decade, SD-48 is probably the easiest way to start.

Yes, there definitely is a booming Asian population in this area. I'm not as familiar with the political trends within the Asian community, but I think on balance, the group is probably something like 60/40 D (maybe 65/35 D). To break it down further, the sense I get from talking to some of our Asian neighbors and friends is that the South Asian community tends to trend pretty heavily D while the East Asian community (Korean, Chinese predominately) are more politically divided. The East Asian small business owner contingent actually is pretty visible in the local R groups.

I've heard good things about State Senator (now state rep) Au btw. She's not my representative, but it's pretty cool that she's the only elected doctor in the GA legislature. Feels like we need more of those folks if we're trying to set policies on topics like abortion but I digress.

I believe I've read that there's about 50K-60K (Asian) Indian-American registered voters in GA.  A small but notable chunk of my Desi friends are clustered around the Atlanta area.  

All but one or two are progressive-types who I presume voted for Warnock.  Would love to see the overall stats on GA Indian-American voters.  

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/aaldef-releases-preliminary-asian-american-exit-poll-results-for-2022-midterm-elections/ (not nationally representative)

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DC | CA | FL | GA | LA | MA | MD | MI | MN | NJ | NM | NV | NY | PA | TX | VA

(On Nov 9), the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund (AALDEF) released preliminary results of its nonpartisan, multilingual exit poll of 5,351 Asian American voters in the November 8, 2022, midterm elections.

Voters were surveyed in English, as well as 11 Asian languages, including Arabic, Bengali, Chinese, Gujarati, Hindi, Khmer, Korean, Punjabi, Tagalog, Urdu, and Vietnamese. More detailed results will be provided soon.

Nationally

Vote for House of Representatives: 64.0% Democrat, 32.0% Republican, 2.7% Other, 1.2% Did Not Vote

Vote for Senate (CA, FL, GA, LA, MD, NV, NY, PA only): 66.1% Democrat, 30.0% Republican, 2.5% Other, 1.4% Did Not Vote

Joe Biden Approval: 45.3% Approve, 23.3% Don’t Know, 31.4% Disapprove

Victim of Anti-Asian Harassment or Violence in the Past Two Years: 21.6% Yes, 78.4% No

Support Requiring Teaching a Unit of AAPI History in K-12: 82.7% Yes, 17.3% No

Support Access to Legal Abortion: 63.8% Support, 15.8% Don’t Know, 20.4% Oppose

Support Laws to Protect Transgender People from Discrimination: 65.2% Support, 20.9% Don’t Know, 14.0% Oppose

Georgia (@LostFellow, @Xahar)

Vote for House of Representatives: 60.3% Democrat, 35.1% Republican, 3.3% Other, 1.3% Did Not Vote

Vote for Senate: 60.1% Warnock, 33.3% Walker, 4.6% Other, 2.0% Did Not Vote

Joe Biden Approval: 37.9% Approve, 26.1% Don’t Know, 36.0% Disapprove

Support Access to Legal Abortion: 59.2% Support, 19.8% Don’t Know, 21.0% Oppose

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/asian-americans-supported-warnock-according-to-aaldef-asian-american-exit-poll/

GA-SEN Runoff update. A bit surprised how R the Chinese crosstab is here given the Vietnamese and Korean crosstabs. The only semi-plausible reasons I can think of for this are 1) comparatively secular Chinese immigrants possibly being turned off by Warnock's ties to organized religion, and 2) Chinese immigrants being displeased with national Dems' anti-China pandering?

Asian American voters’ support for Senator Warnock grew versus the November 8 General Election, with 78.1% supporting him in the runoff versus 60.1% in the general election.

The five largest Asian American national origin groups in our survey supported Senator Warnock:

Bangladeshi: 96.3% Warnock, 3.7% Walker
Asian Indian: 83.3% Warnock, 14.1% Walker
Vietnamese: 80.0% Warnock, 20.0% Walker
Korean: 64.8% Warnock, 35.2% Walker
Chinese: 61.5% Warnock, 38.5% Walker

• Female voters supported Warnock 81.4% and Walker 17.9%, while Male voters supported Warnock 75.7% and Walker 23.6%.
• Native-Born voters supported Warnock 93.2% and Walker 6.8%, while Foreign-Born voters supported Warnock 72.3% and Walker 27.7%.
• Voters with limited English proficiency (LEP) supported Warnock 64.4% and Walker 35.6%, while Non-LEP voters supported Warnock 84.9% and Walker 15.1%.
• Registered Democrats voted for Warnock by 98.5% while registered Republicans voted for Walker by 84.6%.

Definitely wonder if differences in ethnic origin among various AAPI-heavy Atlanta suburbs/precincts account for variable swings from the GE to the runoff. I know next to nothing about which Asian groups live where other than Gwinnett County having a lot of Vietnamese, Koreans, and Indians.

A summary of the Senate and gubernatorial results in each Metro ATL precinct with at least 40% Asian VAP:

DeKalb
Dunwoody (42.1% Asian): Warnock +38.3, Abrams +23.6 (Warnock +14.7)

Forsyth
Johns Creek (41.6% Asian): Walker +6.3, Kemp +22.5 (Warnock +16.2)
Windermere (41.1% Asian): Walker +13.5, Kemp +29.6 (Warnock +16.1)

Fulton
Alpharetta 12B (58.4% Asian): Warnock +28.4, Abrams +10.6 (Warnock +17.8 )
Johns Creek 1 (54.3% Asian): Warnock +24.4, Abrams +9.1 (Warnock +15.3)
Johns Creek 2 (46.2% Asian): Warnock +20.1, Abrams +3.9 (Warnock +16.2)
Johns Creek 7 (45.9% Asian): Warnock +20.3, Abrams +4.3 (Warnock +16.0)
Johns Creek 6 (41.9% Asian): Warnock +1.8, Kemp +12.3 (Warnock +14.1)
Sandy Springs 29A (40.9% Asian): Warnock +33.0, Abrams +20.3 (Warnock +12.7)

Gwinnett
Duluth I (54.5% Asian): Walker +0.1, Kemp +18.0 (Warnock +17.9)

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/asian-americans-supported-warnock-according-to-aaldef-asian-american-exit-poll/

GA-SEN Runoff update. A bit surprised how R the Chinese crosstab is here given the Vietnamese and Korean crosstabs. The only semi-plausible reasons I can think of for this are 1) comparatively secular Chinese immigrants possibly being turned off by Warnock's ties to organized religion, and 2) Chinese immigrants being displeased with national Dems' anti-China pandering?

Asian American voters’ support for Senator Warnock grew versus the November 8 General Election, with 78.1% supporting him in the runoff versus 60.1% in the general election.

The five largest Asian American national origin groups in our survey supported Senator Warnock:

Bangladeshi: 96.3% Warnock, 3.7% Walker
Asian Indian: 83.3% Warnock, 14.1% Walker
Vietnamese: 80.0% Warnock, 20.0% Walker
Korean: 64.8% Warnock, 35.2% Walker
Chinese: 61.5% Warnock, 38.5% Walker

• Female voters supported Warnock 81.4% and Walker 17.9%, while Male voters supported Warnock 75.7% and Walker 23.6%.
• Native-Born voters supported Warnock 93.2% and Walker 6.8%, while Foreign-Born voters supported Warnock 72.3% and Walker 27.7%.
• Voters with limited English proficiency (LEP) supported Warnock 64.4% and Walker 35.6%, while Non-LEP voters supported Warnock 84.9% and Walker 15.1%.
• Registered Democrats voted for Warnock by 98.5% while registered Republicans voted for Walker by 84.6%.

I'm not an expert on Asian voting patterns, but it actually doesn't surprise me Chinese Americans voted the most R. Here in Forsyth at least, it seems a disproportionate number are rather successful small business owners, and the folks I know in this group are all heavily R. The more D trending Asians (of all ethnic groups) I know tend to be in professional services (e.g., healthcare, legal, higher education).

I haven’t been in Georgia for well over 10 years so I don’t have a good understanding of what the situation is like on the ground. I’m aware that Metro Atlanta is a hub of entrepreneurship for Chinese immigrants, but I see no reason why that wouldn’t also apply to other Asian groups. What kinds of small businesses are we talking about here?

How did it grow from 60% in the general to 78% in the runoff . Are higher propensity Asian voters more likely to be democratic than lower propensity ones

I’d take AALDEF with a grain of salt, they seemed way too D for 2016-PRES and were possivly too R for 2020-PRES (they indicated more willingness to vote for 45 among Koreans, Cambodians, and Vietnamese than my reading of precinct level results would’ve suggested). My guess would be decreased turnout from functional GOPers and Walker turning off Indies more than usual?