2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Tekken_Guy]

Despite being a pessimist at heart, I have a hard time seeing massive turnout numbers like these possibly being bad for Uncle Joe. Why would millions of normally disengaged voters suddenly turn out for the orange clown? It would make basically zero sense. You would have to think that a majority of these people are showing up to get rid of him.

Ehh thats not always true, as remember turnout in 2004 also a massive increase from 2000 and many people thought it would be good for Kerry as why would so many new voters come out to vote for the status quo. Turned out that while Kerry did get 8 million more votes than Gore did , it didnt matter as Bush got 12 million more votes in 2004 than he did in 2000

Because Bush was actually quite popular. The race was always considered a toss-up.

[Tekken_Guy]

The needle's been slowly moving towards Biden in FL and NC, although Trump is still favored. Down to a 65% chance Trump sweeps the needle states.

Hasn’t Trump already won FL?

[Tekken_Guy]

People underestimate Democrats chances in 2022. Suburbanites are more important in midterms than presidential elections because there’s a lot of low info WWC voters who only vote when the president is on the ballot. So a lot of those low info Trumpists won’t come out to vote in 2022

Those “low info WWC voters” are still more reliable than people of color.

[Tekken_Guy]

Can we talk about New Jersey for a second? A nearly *10%* shift since 2016. Biden +23 right now. Wow.

The whole Revolt of the suburbs thing may not have been false, at least in the Northeast

Seems to have been pretty real pretty much everywhere. That’s why Biden can win Georgia.

And yet he’s struggling to win states that Trump barely won last time?

[Tekken_Guy]

Can we talk about New Jersey for a second? A nearly *10%* shift since 2016. Biden +23 right now. Wow.

The whole Revolt of the suburbs thing may not have been false, at least in the Northeast

Seems to have been pretty real pretty much everywhere. That’s why Biden can win Georgia.

And yet he’s struggling to win states that Trump barely won last time?

Suburban shifts are there too, it’s just that Trump also got a slight rural shift in some places plus some gains with minorities (especially Latinos). Suburban shifts seem to be outweighing that though.

Really? Ohio and Iowa barely budged.

[Tekken_Guy]

I mean, Biden may very well win the Presidency, and I'm happy for that, but the down ballot losses are really irking me.

Gideon, J. Cunningham, Finkenauer, and DMP losing really stung.

Could've been a lot worse frankly. The results we're getting are in line with what people thought would happen like several months ago

People really were quite bearish on both Cunningham and Finkenauer for much of the cycle, only to get their hopes up around the final stretch.

[Tekken_Guy]

116-117k ballots are outstanding in NC, per CBS.

Where are they from, what are they (in-person or mail-in), & what does this all mean for Biden/Cunningham's chances? Presumably nothing, given the current margins?

I think Biden would have to win like 62% of all of those ballots but my math may be wrong

How about for Cal?

[Tekken_Guy]

CNN saying 140,000 left to count in Philly, 28,000 in bucks.

Yeah, can’t see how Trump holds on here. Philly alone will virtually wipe out his entire lead. And I think Bucks will push Biden over the edge if not in Philly.

[Tekken_Guy]

He’s going to steal this election.

Only if Republican officials let him. They could very well abandon him; most of the care about their own interests more than Trump’s.

[Tekken_Guy]

What state is going to be called next?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/marklevinshow/status/1324406883600506880

Dumb bastard

Mark "I'm never voting for Donald Trump" Levin

What a loser

How will elected GOP officials act, though?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/marklevinshow/status/1324406883600506880

Dumb bastard

Mark "I'm never voting for Donald Trump" Levin

What a loser

How will elected GOP officials act, though?

Hopefully not like the scum they are.

Do they prioritize protecting Trump or protecting themselves?

[Tekken_Guy]

Well, I'm heavily disappointed in Trump's near-certain loss but I'm already looking ahead to 2022 and 2024.

I suspect we'll probably flip the House in 2022 and pick up a senate seat or two. This will lay the groundwork for our eventual nominee to be in a great position to defeat Biden or Harris in 2024.

Good. I want a Republican Senate that is not an incompetent buffoon.

[Tekken_Guy]

I really hope Trump is left out to dry by the GOP Establishment. It's definitely not a wise move politically to keep themselves associated with him. If McConnell and co. stick with him, they're ensuring Dem turnout in the GA runoffs will be through the roof. They're endangering PA, WI, NC Senate Seats in 2022. And they're giving Brown and Tester a good shot at re-election.

[Tekken_Guy]

I really hope Trump is left out to dry by the GOP Establishment. It's definitely not a wise move politically to keep themselves associated with him. If McConnell and co. stick with him, they're ensuring Dem turnout in the GA runoffs will be through the roof. They're endangering PA, WI, NC Senate Seats in 2022. And they're giving Brown and Tester a good shot at re-election.

I'm sure Brown is safe, Tester depending on the person running against him could have a good challenge and PA/WI/NC and possibly KY because Rand Paul will Rand Paul will be competitive.

Brown is far from safe. And there's no one in MT that Tester is guaranteed to beat.

[Tekken_Guy]

Obviously I think a lot of his base still believes his allegations of widespread fraud, but I think that even this is a little too desperate for some of his supporters who are starting to become disillusioned with him. The final nail in the coffin is when he'll either concede pathetically or refuse to concede despite it being clear he has lost.

The final nail will probably be GOP leaders/elected officials call on him to concede. If Pat Toomey is acknowledging that Trump is likely to lose, then he likely does not have the votes for a legislative coup in PA, or even the support from state GOP leadership for it to happen. It also means he might not have five SCOTUS votes.

[Tekken_Guy]

Obviously I think a lot of his base still believes his allegations of widespread fraud, but I think that even this is a little too desperate for some of his supporters who are starting to become disillusioned with him. The final nail in the coffin is when he'll either concede pathetically or refuse to concede despite it being clear he has lost.

The final nail will probably be GOP leaders/elected officials call on him to concede. If Pat Toomey is acknowledging that Trump is likely to lose, then he likely does not have the votes for a legislative coup in PA, or even the support from state GOP leadership for it to happen. It also means he might not have five SCOTUS votes.

Even if Donald Trump was caught with either a live boy or a dead girl in his bed, Amy Coney Barrett, Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, and Brett Kavanaugh will still support him in any election disputes.

I doubt they’ll bother it if the GOP Establishment signals it’s okay to cut Trump loose.

[Tekken_Guy]

When will the race be called?

[Tekken_Guy]

Big legal fight coming folks. AZ is likely to go to Trump.

Maybe, but AZ will be irrelevant if Biden wins GA and PA like he's on track to do.

Trump has got a second term. His supporters should be thanking Amy Coney Barrett, Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, and Brett Kavanaugh.

You've said this three times on this page alone. Can it.

Also, they're not going to steal the election unless there is near-unanimous support from GOP politicians and leadership for the move. Pat Toomey is already admitting Trump is likely to lose, which means the cracks are starting to show. For example, if there are not at least 50 senators who support a coup, Trump is finished. And a lot of the SCOTUS show more loyalty to the GOP Establishment than to Trump.

[Tekken_Guy]

LOL.   Democrats who think they will win this election.

Fun factoid of the day:  the more prolonged this election will be, the higher chances the GOP will win.

Democrats didn't learn their lesson from 2000?  

Biden's margin in PA is going to be pretty comfortable, at this point.

[Tekken_Guy]

I would guess that we'll see the networks calls the race once the Allegheny vote comes in, which will put Biden's PA lead well over 0.5%.

I doubt it, if provisionals are GOP friendly and if there really are 100,000 of them they could cut into if not completely erase Biden's lead.

I don't think we'll have a call from PA until at least Monday.

They've been GOP friendly because they've come from rural areas. The vast majority of outstanding provisional are from urban centers, meaning they'll lean Biden.

Ok I feel better about PA now. That was a rollercoaster

An artificially manufactured one. Classic Atlas.

Kind of like the Arizona one.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't necessarily agree with the "Dems" are becoming the party of the rich rhetoric. I think it's more so that Trumpian populism is very popular among lower-income voters, so the contrast with Trump is automatically going to register better with higher income voters.

Once Trump was out of the equation (like the 2018 midterm suggests) the under 50K income electorate reverted back to Dems. I think it all depends on how the Republican party emerges from this election. If they keep harping on anti-globalism and protectionism, they might morph into a less fiscally conservative party with a more conservative social platform, which will be attractive to many lower-income voters. Right now, the Republican party's platform and policies are still very much pro-business, anti-regulation, anti-deficit and pro-trade. I do anticipate that they will be vocal against Biden's more economically progressive policies. I don't know how well that will play with some lower-income voters.

I think it has more to do with the "Trumpy" voters staying home.

[Tekken_Guy]

I apologize for keeping this thread active, but has anyone ever mentioned the fact that Biden and Trump tied in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex? They each got 1,504,789 votes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallas–Fort_Worth_metroplex#Politics

I plugged in the Metroplex into Redraw the States and Biden narrowly won it.