California House Races Megathread

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Crossposting here: Cardenas accused of child molestation, which he vehemently denies.

I would support Joe Shammas (D) or Benny Bernal (R) over Cardenas.

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I just added CA-51 candidate Kevin Mitchell's party preference (Socialist Equality Party, which doesn't have ballot access) to the Wikipedia House article. At least 3 candidates are running with parties that don't have ballot access. Applegate still leads CA-49 Democrats in the polls.

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These candidates are running with parties that don't have ballot access:
Brian Carroll (American Solidarity-CA-22)
Robert Pendleton (K9-CA-49)
Kevin Mitchell (Socialist Equality-CA-51)

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Will CA-39 be D vs. R?

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Ugh, looks like Sara Jacobs might make the top-two. She's the worst candidate ever.

That seems a hyperbolic thing to say a few months after the Roy Moore saga.

Don't forget Don Blankenship, Patrick Little, Arthur Jones, Paul Nehlen, and Courtland Sykes.

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New CA-48 internal poll for Hans Keirstead: Rohrabacher 31, Baugh 15.

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Does Rouda make runoff; or will it be Baugh, Keirstead, Siddiqui, or Zarkades?

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This is horrible and I'm glad they caught it (I obviously hope Rouda wins now).  However, that DownWithTyranny article reads like it was written by a crazy person and the idea that Thorburn and Moser were victims of a smear campaign is ridiculous, to say the least.

Isn't Cisneros the victim of a smear campaign by Thorburn?

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Zarkades, the only remaining Berniecrat, is dead last in the polls. Siddiqui might also gain a few votes as well. If Siddiqui gets enough votes, it might be Rohrabacher vs. Baugh.

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Rouda will be a horrible Congressman but he’s the only electable candidate in the race now.

Why would Rouda be "horrible"?

Rouda's a good fit for the district. A Berniecrat like Zarkades is a poor fit for the district.

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Rouda will be a horrible Congressman but he’s the only electable candidate in the race now.

Why would Rouda be "horrible"?

I don't trust someone who voted for John Kasich in 2016. Contrary to what the Resistance may think, the GOP was insane before Trump too.

But you trust Ojeda, the Trump voter?

That reasoning is really dumb LOL, especially when you suck Ojeda's peepee dry. People's views can change, and he only voted Kasich in the primary.

Ojeda supported Sanders in the primary though and he ran as a Democrat in both 2014 and 2016.

Ok, but he actually voted for Trump in the GE, and Trump is far more repulsive than Kasich. Rouda didn't even vote Kasich in the general, he just supported him in the primary.

Just admit it - you like Ojeda because he is a manly man Populist (TM) and you will ignore that he voted for Trump, whereas you wouldn't make the exception for other people (especially ones you deem "Neoliberal").

Ojeda will probably lose to Carol Miller anyway.

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Rouda will be a horrible Congressman but he’s the only electable candidate in the race now.

Why would Rouda be "horrible"?

I don't trust someone who voted for John Kasich in 2016. Contrary to what the Resistance may think, the GOP was insane before Trump too.

But you trust Ojeda, the Trump voter?

That reasoning is really dumb LOL, especially when you suck Ojeda's peepee dry. People's views can change, and he only voted Kasich in the primary.

Ojeda supported Sanders in the primary though and he ran as a Democrat in both 2014 and 2016.

Ok, but he actually voted for Trump in the GE, and Trump is far more repulsive than Kasich. Rouda didn't even vote Kasich in the general, he just supported him in the primary.

Just admit it - you like Ojeda because he is a manly man Populist (TM) and you will ignore that he voted for Trump, whereas you wouldn't make the exception for other people (especially ones you deem "Neoliberal").

I don't use the term "neoliberal" but yes - I trust Ojeda more than Rouda to vote for the policies I want. It's as simple as that.

Which California Gubernatorial candidate do you support in the primary?

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Rouda will be a horrible Congressman but he’s the only electable candidate in the race now.

Why would Rouda be "horrible"?

I don't trust someone who voted for John Kasich in 2016. Contrary to what the Resistance may think, the GOP was insane before Trump too.

But you trust Ojeda, the Trump voter?

That reasoning is really dumb LOL, especially when you suck Ojeda's peepee dry. People's views can change, and he only voted Kasich in the primary.

Ojeda supported Sanders in the primary though and he ran as a Democrat in both 2014 and 2016.

Ok, but he actually voted for Trump in the GE, and Trump is far more repulsive than Kasich. Rouda didn't even vote Kasich in the general, he just supported him in the primary.

Just admit it - you like Ojeda because he is a manly man Populist (TM) and you will ignore that he voted for Trump, whereas you wouldn't make the exception for other people (especially ones you deem "Neoliberal").

I don't use the term "neoliberal" but yes - I trust Ojeda more than Rouda to vote for the policies I want. It's as simple as that.

Which California Gubernatorial candidate do you support in the primary?

Chiang. I don't like Villgorsa or Newsom at all.

Do you like Chiang better than Eastin, the only serious Berniecrat?

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Rouda will be a horrible Congressman but he’s the only electable candidate in the race now.

Why would Rouda be "horrible"?

I don't trust someone who voted for John Kasich in 2016. Contrary to what the Resistance may think, the GOP was insane before Trump too.

But you trust Ojeda, the Trump voter?

That reasoning is really dumb LOL, especially when you suck Ojeda's peepee dry. People's views can change, and he only voted Kasich in the primary.

Ojeda supported Sanders in the primary though and he ran as a Democrat in both 2014 and 2016.

Ok, but he actually voted for Trump in the GE, and Trump is far more repulsive than Kasich. Rouda didn't even vote Kasich in the general, he just supported him in the primary.

Just admit it - you like Ojeda because he is a manly man Populist (TM) and you will ignore that he voted for Trump, whereas you wouldn't make the exception for other people (especially ones you deem "Neoliberal").

we all make mistakes, and ojeda regrets voting for trump. rouda doesnt appear to regret his vote for kasich. btw, this true conservative thing doesnt fit you lol, come home to the sane party

That will hurt Ojeda. Ojeda likely loses in November.

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Rouda will be a horrible Congressman but he’s the only electable candidate in the race now.

Why would Rouda be "horrible"?

I don't trust someone who voted for John Kasich in 2016. Contrary to what the Resistance may think, the GOP was insane before Trump too.

But you trust Ojeda, the Trump voter?

That reasoning is really dumb LOL, especially when you suck Ojeda's peepee dry. People's views can change, and he only voted Kasich in the primary.

Ojeda supported Sanders in the primary though and he ran as a Democrat in both 2014 and 2016.

Ok, but he actually voted for Trump in the GE, and Trump is far more repulsive than Kasich. Rouda didn't even vote Kasich in the general, he just supported him in the primary.

Just admit it - you like Ojeda because he is a manly man Populist (TM) and you will ignore that he voted for Trump, whereas you wouldn't make the exception for other people (especially ones you deem "Neoliberal").

we all make mistakes, and ojeda regrets voting for trump. rouda doesnt appear to regret his vote for kasich. btw, this true conservative thing doesnt fit you lol, come home to the sane party

That will hurt Ojeda. Ojeda likely loses in November.

Manchin didn’t vote for Trump either and he’ll likely win WV-03.

Manchin's an incumbent who previously served as Governor. Ojeda doesn't have the advantage of incumbency.

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National Association of Realtors withdraws their endorsement of Dana Rohrabacher. He made some comments recently opposing the extension of fair housing protections to gay people

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/05/24/dana-rohrabacher-says-its-ok-to-not-sell-homes-to-gays-loses-support-of-realtors/

Not surprising. Rohrabacher is a conservative Southern Baptist.

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From the former chairman of the California GOP:

https://twitter.com/RonNehring/status/1000461306250571777

Fitzgerald ran as a Democrat in 2012, just like Tom Metzger did decades ago.

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-snip-

Got this in today in the mailbox. No Democratic candidate specified by the DCCC though :/

lmbo

What is the point of that mailer then? Just to boost turnout from Democrats? Because the people voting for Democrats who have no chance will still be voting that same way probably, which doesn't solve anything. OTOH I can see why they may not want to name names. If there is a progressive candidate in the race and that person isn't named, then it will only make the voters the party wants to "vote reasonably" end up locking arms with the person who won't win.

Still, seems like a waste of money.

In 2016, CA-39 had a 60-40 R edge in the primary. Democrats need to close that gap if they want a spot in the runoff.

No way in hell that Cisneros doesn't make the runoff at this point, he's done enough to consolidate his base and put him over the top. A Republican shutout is more likely than a Democratic one at this point.

You think Kim fails to make the runoff to face Cisneros in November?

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Does Cisneros face Kim or Thorburn in November?

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Serious question: Are the democrats actually in trouble of a lock out in 39/48/49 or is this more of a media has nothing to do so clickbait this topic? From my understanding a lockout is kinda rare/hard to come by

I can't see Democrats being locked out in 39 or 49. Republicans might be locked out of 49 (8R, 4D). I can only see Democrats possibly being locked out of 48.

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Republicans with double digit ballot leads in CA-39 and CA-49.

In CA-49 Republicans only have a 2% returned ballot lead. R 38%, D 36%, NPP/other 25%

http://www.politicaldata.com/absentee-vote-tracker/

My guess is NPP/other voters break more to Dems so I would guess Democrats end up with more votes  in CA-49 than Republicans.

The CA-39 returns are a bit concerning for Josh Newman, though his Senate district is about 4 points bluer than the CA-39 CD that it overlaps so it allows for a little wiggle room. But he’ll want to close that gap in the coming week, fast. Though I do imagine there’ll be a decent amount of registered RINOs who vote no on the recall on principle.

Newman isn't the only Democrat running. Why would some Democrats want to recall Newman?

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Republicans with double digit ballot leads in CA-39 and CA-49.

In CA-49 Republicans only have a 2% returned ballot lead. R 38%, D 36%, NPP/other 25%

http://www.politicaldata.com/absentee-vote-tracker/

My guess is NPP/other voters break more to Dems so I would guess Democrats end up with more votes  in CA-49 than Republicans.

The CA-39 returns are a bit concerning for Josh Newman, though his Senate district is about 4 points bluer than the CA-39 CD that it overlaps so it allows for a little wiggle room. But he’ll want to close that gap in the coming week, fast. Though I do imagine there’ll be a decent amount of registered RINOs who vote no on the recall on principle.

Newman isn't the only Democrat running. Why would some Democrats want to recall Newman?

I think you need to take a reading comprehension course.

This Democratic candidate wants Newman recalled.

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Well good news it seems Nate Cohn thinks dem turnout in 48 has been good enough that the odds of a lockout are slim https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1002222893051232256

Democratic turnout in CA-48 might be good, but will the Democratic vote be too divided? Will CA-49 be D vs. D?

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Does Rouda make runoff?

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In the northern part of CA-48, I have seen more Baugh signs than Rouda. I have also seen more Siddiqui signs than Keirstead.