California House Races Megathread

[Greedo punched first]

Republicans with double digit ballot leads in CA-39 and CA-49.

In CA-49 Republicans only have a 2% returned ballot lead. R 38%, D 36%, NPP/other 25%

http://www.politicaldata.com/absentee-vote-tracker/

My guess is NPP/other voters break more to Dems so I would guess Democrats end up with more votes  in CA-49 than Republicans.

The CA-39 returns are a bit concerning for Josh Newman, though his Senate district is about 4 points bluer than the CA-39 CD that it overlaps so it allows for a little wiggle room. But he’ll want to close that gap in the coming week, fast. Though I do imagine there’ll be a decent amount of registered RINOs who vote no on the recall on principle.

Newman isn't the only Democrat running. Why would some Democrats want to recall Newman?

I think you need to take a reading comprehension course.

This Democratic candidate wants Newman recalled.

[Canis]

so how likely do you guys think it is that Donelly makes the runoff in CA-08? hes quite the character

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[mencken]

so how likely do you guys think it is that Donelly makes the runoff in CA-08? hes quite the character

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He's fallen flat at his last two attempts at higher office (he got 20% in the primary in 2016). I am not too optimistic about the third time being the charm.

I guess he could make the runoff if Democratic performance was high in the 2016 primary due to the Clinton-Sanders battle, but it seems unlikely due to the lack of a R increase in the general election in this district (unlike most other California districts in 2016)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Speaking of Donnelly: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/390056-gop-congressional-candidate-in-california-has-compared-parkland-teen-to

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Serious question: Are the democrats actually in trouble of a lock out in 39/48/49 or is this more of a media has nothing to do so clickbait this topic? From my understanding a lockout is kinda rare/hard to come by

I'm worried of the 39th being locked out, but that's cause I volunteered for a group trying to flip it and it's been the big elephant in the meetings. I think the 48th has a >50% of being a D lockout and the 49th looks just as likely to having 2 Democrats advance

[Hindsight was 2020]

Well good news it seems Nate Cohn thinks dem turnout in 48 has been good enough that the odds of a lockout are slim https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1002222893051232256

[Greedo punched first]

Well good news it seems Nate Cohn thinks dem turnout in 48 has been good enough that the odds of a lockout are slim https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1002222893051232256

Democratic turnout in CA-48 might be good, but will the Democratic vote be too divided? Will CA-49 be D vs. D?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1002325085183766528

[Politician]

Right now, I'd say lockout odds in CA-48 are 40%.

[Rhenna]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1002325085183766528

They're clearly getting scared of a lockout. I think one happens in CA-48 but not CA-39 or CA-49.

[mencken]

Somewhat interesting (albeit fairly intuitive) findings from crunching precinct data in CA-48: Rohrabacher's 2016 share of the vote was ~10% higher than Trump's (I didn't count Stein/others/write-ins so this might actually be ~11%) in almost all cities of the district except for the heavily Asian ones (Fountain Valley and part of Westminster). It will be interesting to see if these areas maintain their pro-incumbent tendency or trend against the Republicans.

[Virginiá]

House Republican performances from 2016 are pretty much irrelevant at this point. It's a completely different political landscape, and even if Democrats underperform expectations, I would expect to see a smorgasbord of Republicans post weak winning margins, regardless of how they performed in 2016. That is pretty much what one should expect if you go from R+1 to numbers as high as D+8 or even as low as D+4.

[Gass3268]

New Tulchin Research Poll (D) for CA-49:

Mike Levin (D) 17%
Diane Harkey (R) 15%
Doug Applegate (D) 12%
Sara Jacobs (D) 11%
Rocky Chavez (R) 11%
Paul Kerr (D) 7%
Kristin Gaspar (R) 7%
Brian Maryott (R) 6%
Undecided 13%

Source

[YE]

A Levin and Applegate D vs D runoff would be so hilarious.

[Politician]

New Tulchin Research Poll (D) for CA-49:

Mike Levin (D) 17%
Diane Harkey (R) 15%
Doug Applegate (D) 12%
Sara Jacobs (D) 11%
Rocky Chavez (R) 11%
Paul Kerr (D) 7%
Kristin Gaspar (R) 7%
Brian Maryott (R) 6%
Undecided 13%

Source

Yeah, not seeing R vs R here. CA-48 is the only one I' concerned about.

[KingSweden]

Looks like everyone who said Chavez was collapsing was right

[junior chįmp]

New CA-49 SurveyUSA poll:

Harkey (R) 24%
Applegate (D) 11,%
Jacobs (D) 11%
Levin (D) 10%
Chavez (R) 8%
Kerr (D) 8%
Maryott (R) 6%

[Gass3268]

New CA-49 SurveyUSA poll:

Harkey (R) 24%
Applegate (D) 11,%
Jacobs (D) 11%
Levin (D) 10%
Chavez (R) 8%
Kerr (D) 8%
Maryott (R) 6%

Most of the undecideds are Democrats/Independents/Moderates/Liberals. Most of the Republicans/Conservatives have made up their minds.

[Gass3268]

New CA-49 SurveyUSA poll:

Harkey (R) 24%
Applegate (D) 11,%
Jacobs (D) 11%
Levin (D) 10%
Chavez (R) 8%
Kerr (D) 8%
Maryott (R) 6%

The poll has White approval of Trump at 44-52 while Hispanic approval is at 49-50%?

The 18-34 year olds also have a +8 approval of Trump, while every other age group, including senior citizens, is negaitve.

[Politician]

New CA-49 SurveyUSA poll:

Harkey (R) 24%
Applegate (D) 11,%
Jacobs (D) 11%
Levin (D) 10%
Chavez (R) 8%
Kerr (D) 8%
Maryott (R) 6%

The poll has White approval of Trump at 44-52 while Hispanic approval is at 49-50%?

The 18-34 year olds also have a +8 approval of Trump, while every other age group, including senior citizens, is negaitve.

Yep, it's a junk poll.

[Landslide Lyndon]

New CA-49 SurveyUSA poll:

Harkey (R) 24%
Applegate (D) 11,%
Jacobs (D) 11%
Levin (D) 10%
Chavez (R) 8%
Kerr (D) 8%
Maryott (R) 6%

The poll has White approval of Trump at 44-52 while Hispanic approval is at 49-50%?

Welcome to the world of SurveyUSA's wacky subsamples.

[Politician]

A Levin and Applegate D vs D runoff would be so hilarious.

Applegate would win it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New CA-49 SurveyUSA poll:

Harkey (R) 24%
Applegate (D) 11,%
Jacobs (D) 11%
Levin (D) 10%
Chavez (R) 8%
Kerr (D) 8%
Maryott (R) 6%

The poll has White approval of Trump at 44-52 while Hispanic approval is at 49-50%?

Welcome to the world of SurveyUSA's wacky subsamples.

Yeah, for some reason they've always had bizarre crosstabs even though their topline numbers are usually pretty sound.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Today's VBM update from RRH:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harry Enten's take on the California races: https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/01/politics/california-top-two-analysis/index.html