California House Races Megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Glad to see Nehring did the right thing.

[kph14]

-snip-

Got this in today in the mailbox. No Democratic candidate specified by the DCCC though :/

lmbo

What is the point of that mailer then? Just to boost turnout from Democrats? Because the people voting for Democrats who have no chance will still be voting that same way probably, which doesn't solve anything. OTOH I can see why they may not want to name names. If there is a progressive candidate in the race and that person isn't named, then it will only make the voters the party wants to "vote reasonably" end up locking arms with the person who won't win.

Still, seems like a waste of money.

In 2016, CA-39 had a 60-40 R edge in the primary. Democrats need to close that gap if they want a spot in the runoff.

[wesmoorenerd]

-snip-

Got this in today in the mailbox. No Democratic candidate specified by the DCCC though :/

lmbo

What is the point of that mailer then? Just to boost turnout from Democrats? Because the people voting for Democrats who have no chance will still be voting that same way probably, which doesn't solve anything. OTOH I can see why they may not want to name names. If there is a progressive candidate in the race and that person isn't named, then it will only make the voters the party wants to "vote reasonably" end up locking arms with the person who won't win.

Still, seems like a waste of money.

In 2016, CA-39 had a 60-40 R edge in the primary. Democrats need to close that gap if they want a spot in the runoff.

No way in hell that Cisneros doesn't make the runoff at this point, he's done enough to consolidate his base and put him over the top. A Republican shutout is more likely than a Democratic one at this point.

[Jeppe]

CA-39: Young Kim and Gil Cisneros
CA-48: Dana Rohrabacher and Harley Rouda
CA-49: Diane Harkey and Sara Jacobs

I’m most worried about CA-48 at this point. Baugh might ride a wave of momentum into the top 2 while Rouda’s performance is held back by candidates who dropped out, like Laura Oatman, getting 5%. I think it’s possible that Republicans get locked out of CA-49 but not in CA-39, Young Kim will probably finish in 1st place in that district.

[Greedo punched first]

-snip-

Got this in today in the mailbox. No Democratic candidate specified by the DCCC though :/

lmbo

What is the point of that mailer then? Just to boost turnout from Democrats? Because the people voting for Democrats who have no chance will still be voting that same way probably, which doesn't solve anything. OTOH I can see why they may not want to name names. If there is a progressive candidate in the race and that person isn't named, then it will only make the voters the party wants to "vote reasonably" end up locking arms with the person who won't win.

Still, seems like a waste of money.

In 2016, CA-39 had a 60-40 R edge in the primary. Democrats need to close that gap if they want a spot in the runoff.

No way in hell that Cisneros doesn't make the runoff at this point, he's done enough to consolidate his base and put him over the top. A Republican shutout is more likely than a Democratic one at this point.

You think Kim fails to make the runoff to face Cisneros in November?

[wesmoorenerd]

-snip-

Got this in today in the mailbox. No Democratic candidate specified by the DCCC though :/

lmbo

What is the point of that mailer then? Just to boost turnout from Democrats? Because the people voting for Democrats who have no chance will still be voting that same way probably, which doesn't solve anything. OTOH I can see why they may not want to name names. If there is a progressive candidate in the race and that person isn't named, then it will only make the voters the party wants to "vote reasonably" end up locking arms with the person who won't win.

Still, seems like a waste of money.

In 2016, CA-39 had a 60-40 R edge in the primary. Democrats need to close that gap if they want a spot in the runoff.

No way in hell that Cisneros doesn't make the runoff at this point, he's done enough to consolidate his base and put him over the top. A Republican shutout is more likely than a Democratic one at this point.

You think Kim fails to make the runoff to face Cisneros in November?

No, Kim is absolutely favored to make the runoff, but I'd say she's more likely to miss the runoff than Cisneros at least.

[henster]

Instead of endorsing Feinstein WHO IS IN NO DANGER why doesn't Obama intervene in some of these House races? I mean even Biden would be useful here, the only recourse I think Dems have is just have a lot of heavy hitters endorse one candidate.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Instead of endorsing Feinstein WHO IS IN NO DANGER why doesn't Obama intervene in some of these House races? I mean even Biden would be useful here, the only recourse I think Dems have is just have a lot of heavy hitters endorse one candidate.

Because the spurned candidate(s) will start whining about "muh, evil establishment" and the likes of Our Revolution and Justice Dems will rush to endorse them, thus creating a mess like the one in Texas with Moser.

[Politician]

CA-39: Young Kim and Gil Cisneros
CA-48: Dana Rohrabacher and Harley Rouda
CA-49: Diane Harkey and Sara Jacobs

I’m most worried about CA-48 at this point. Baugh might ride a wave of momentum into the top 2 while Rouda’s performance is held back by candidates who dropped out, like Laura Oatman, getting 5%. I think it’s possible that Republicans get locked out of CA-49 but not in CA-39, Young Kim will probably finish in 1st place in that district.

This seems reasonable, except in CA-49 I'd say Doug Applegate is favored to make the runoff against Diane Harkey.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

My predictions just over a week out are...

CA-4: McClintock v. Jessica Morse

CA-8: Cook v. Marge Doyle (although Tim Donnelly wouldn’t surprise me)

CA-10: Denham v. Josh Harder (IIRC, Eggman hasn’t been running much of a campaign; if I’m mistaken about that then Eggman should be able to make the GE runoff)

CA-22: Nunes v. Andrew Janz

CA-25: Knight v. Katie Hill

CA-29: Cardenas v. Joe Shammas

CA-39: Young Kim v. Gil Cisneros

CA-45: Walters v. David Min

CA-48: Rohrabacher v. Harley Rouda (although Scott Baugh wouldn’t surprise me and he’d definitely beat Rohrabacher in the runoff; there’s also a slight chance of a Baugh v. Rouda runoff, but it’s highly unlikely)

CA-49: Doug Applegate v. Rocky Chavez (there’s a chance that Diane Harkey barely makes the runoff, but I doubt it; while Chavez and Applegate are both clearly fading, I think Harkey needed about 3-4 more weeks to actually pull ahead of one of them and she only has about a week left.)

CA-50: Ammar Campa-Najjar v. Bill Wells (although Hunter wouldn’t surprise me)

Bonus:

Governor: Gavin Newsom v. John Cox (although Antonio Villarigosa wouldn’t surprise me)

LG: Ed Hernandez v. Jeff Bleich (although Kounalakis wouldn’t surprise me)

Treasurer: Fiona Ma v. Greg Conlon

AG: Xavier Becerra v. Steve Bailey (although at this early date, I think Jones will beat Beccera if he makes the runoff; the thing is that Bailey is [IIRC] a pretty credible candidate as far as CA Republican sacrificial lambs go)

Senate: Diane Feinstein v. Kevin De Leon

[Coastal Elitist]

My predictions just over a week out are...

CA-4: McClintock v. Jessica Morse

CA-8: Cook v. Marge Doyle (although Tim Donnelly wouldn’t surprise me)

CA-10: Denham v. Josh Harder (IIRC, Eggman hasn’t been running much of a campaign; if I’m mistaken about that then Eggman should be able to make the GE runoff)

CA-22: Nunes v. Andrew Janz

CA-25: Knight v. Katie Hill

CA-29: Cardenas v. Joe Shammas

CA-39: Young Kim v. Gil Cisneros

CA-45: Walters v. David Min

CA-48: Rohrabacher v. Harley Rouda (although Scott Baugh wouldn’t surprise me and he’d definitely beat Rohrabacher in the runoff; there’s also a slight chance of a Baugh v. Rouda runoff, but it’s highly unlikely)

CA-49: Doug Applegate v. Rocky Chavez (there’s a chance that Diane Harkey barely makes the runoff, but I doubt it; while Chavez and Applegate are both clearly fading, I think Harkey needed about 3-4 more weeks to actually pull ahead of one of them and she only has about a week left.)

CA-50: Ammar Campa-Najjar v. Bill Wells (although Hunter wouldn’t surprise me)

Bonus:

Governor: Gavin Newsom v. John Cox (although Antonio Villarigosa wouldn’t surprise me)

LG: Ed Hernandez v. Jeff Bleich (although Kounalakis wouldn’t surprise me)

Treasurer: Fiona Ma v. Greg Conlon

AG: Xavier Becerra v. Steve Bailey (although at this early date, I think Jones will beat Beccera if he makes the runoff; the thing is that Bailey is [IIRC] a pretty credible candidate as far as CA Republican sacrificial lambs go)

Senate: Diane Feinstein v. Kevin De Leon

While I agree with most of these. The Lieutenant Governor race probably won't be D vs D, because Republican Cole Harris has actually spent 2 million dollars and has the party's endorsement so he will probably receive most of the Republican vote propelling him into the runoff. He's also run ads on cable television.

[Jeppe]

CA-39: Young Kim and Gil Cisneros
CA-48: Dana Rohrabacher and Harley Rouda
CA-49: Diane Harkey and Sara Jacobs

I’m most worried about CA-48 at this point. Baugh might ride a wave of momentum into the top 2 while Rouda’s performance is held back by candidates who dropped out, like Laura Oatman, getting 5%. I think it’s possible that Republicans get locked out of CA-49 but not in CA-39, Young Kim will probably finish in 1st place in that district.

This seems reasonable, except in CA-49 I'd say Doug Applegate is favored to make the runoff against Diane Harkey.

Jacobs finishing ahead of Applegate is one of the most obvious developments of the SoCal House races. Even national newspapers like The Hill and NYT are pointing out that Jacobs has all the momentum in the race. She’s a woman running in a year where Dem primary voters are vastly preferring women to men (in non-incumbent primary races, men have won 18 races, women have won 45).

Jacobs and her boosters have also outspent Applegate 4 to 1, and that’s probably going to increase as Applegate’s fundraising has slowed down. Applegate’s lead over Jacobs in the last two polls of the district have been within the margin-of-error too. Applegate is running a bad campaign this year, and he even tried to jump to another race, the San Diego County Board of Supervisors, but failed to do so due to incompetence.

I also wouldn’t discount the possibility of an Applegate vs Jacobs run-off too, although I really would not want that to happen.

[Maxwell]

It would be amusing if one of the races Democrats were scared about ended up being D v. D run-off. The one race I would hope this not happen in is a run-off between Cisneros v. Thornburn, because the race between them was already super toxic and would probably doom whoever wins in 2020.

[Greedo punched first]

Does Cisneros face Kim or Thorburn in November?

[Jeppe]

Does Cisneros face Kim or Thorburn in November?

Definitely Kim. Thorburn is polling too far behind to be in contention for the top 2, imo.

[Jeppe]

“Young Kim, running to replace Royce, and Diane Harkey, the state tax board chair looking to replace Rep. Darrell Issa. The two have led internal polls from both parties.“

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-year-of-the-woman-california-20180528-htmlstory.html

[Hindsight was 2020]

“Young Kim, running to replace Royce, and Diane Harkey, the state tax board chair looking to replace Rep. Darrell Issa. The two have led internal polls from both parties.“

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-year-of-the-woman-california-20180528-htmlstory.html

Rocky must of seriously fell off then

[Gass3268]

More DCCC money:

https://twitter.com/hodgesmr/status/1001884759373496320

[Gass3268]

The strategy for CA-48 is very interesting:

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1001884295479226368

[krazen1211]

Republicans with double digit ballot leads in CA-39 and CA-49.

[Minnesota Mike]

Republicans with double digit ballot leads in CA-39 and CA-49.

In CA-49 Republicans only have a 2% returned ballot lead. R 38%, D 36%, NPP/other 25%

http://www.politicaldata.com/absentee-vote-tracker/

My guess is NPP/other voters break more to Dems so I would guess Democrats end up with more votes  in CA-49 than Republicans.

[Jeppe]

I remember Timmy asking me why Tran didn’t run in CA-48, the district where she lives.

“Cisneros’s endorsements rankled Mai Khanh Tran, a doctor who raised more than $900,000, invested $500,000 of her own money and entered the race after Democrats said they would back someone else in the 48th District, where she lived.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/in-southern-california-democrats-play-the-blame-game-as-house-races-loom/2018/05/30/fedae90e-636d-11e8-a768-ed043e33f1dc_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.abafb91d23b6

[Hindsight was 2020]

Serious question: Are the democrats actually in trouble of a lock out in 39/48/49 or is this more of a media has nothing to do so clickbait this topic? From my understanding a lockout is kinda rare/hard to come by

[Greedo punched first]

Serious question: Are the democrats actually in trouble of a lock out in 39/48/49 or is this more of a media has nothing to do so clickbait this topic? From my understanding a lockout is kinda rare/hard to come by

I can't see Democrats being locked out in 39 or 49. Republicans might be locked out of 49 (8R, 4D). I can only see Democrats possibly being locked out of 48.

[Greedo punched first]

Republicans with double digit ballot leads in CA-39 and CA-49.

In CA-49 Republicans only have a 2% returned ballot lead. R 38%, D 36%, NPP/other 25%

http://www.politicaldata.com/absentee-vote-tracker/

My guess is NPP/other voters break more to Dems so I would guess Democrats end up with more votes  in CA-49 than Republicans.

The CA-39 returns are a bit concerning for Josh Newman, though his Senate district is about 4 points bluer than the CA-39 CD that it overlaps so it allows for a little wiggle room. But he’ll want to close that gap in the coming week, fast. Though I do imagine there’ll be a decent amount of registered RINOs who vote no on the recall on principle.

Newman isn't the only Democrat running. Why would some Democrats want to recall Newman?