Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Torie]

What happened to Sean Patrick Maloney? in NY-17? That is so far perhaps the biggest Dem under-performance of the night in a election cycle where the polls did remarkably well. Weird.

My pulled out of my ass 231 Pubs in the House, 51 in the Senate, night actually be rather clairvoyant.

[Torie]

It seems like almost all of the Pub kook candidates went down. Trump wasn't literally on the ballot, but I think he is the biggest loser of them all.

[Torie]

This is a cool tool.  For example, one can see that the interment of Boebert was premature. She has a 68% still of winning.  Why?  Because the votes still out in Pueblo are projected to be more Pub than than those already counted. Leave all this to the pros folks. We are basically clueless. Humility not hubris.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-colorado-us-house-district-3.html

[Torie]

Don’t attack me sunshine brigade but are the 4 NY flips and James in Michigan enough to shut the door in the house? (Meaning barring a major miracle) - are we no longer in the “it’s possible” territory (meaning is it less than say…. 25%?)

That was true hours ago actually.

[Torie]

so who is favored in Nevada?

The NYT projects the top of the bell curve margin is 0.4% for Mastro. So basically it is close to a tossup. So with the Pubs having a small chance to win AZ, and the Dems have a minuscule advantage in NV, the odds are about 50% that control will be decided in the GA runoff in December.

[Torie]

Well, things are clarifying now, and my guess is the GOP House number will be between 218-222. Obviously 218 would be the most fun.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/s_golonka/status/1590499363700473856?s=20&t=KrbLdzlAYHC-...
Is this good for CCM?

No.

[Torie]

A couple of matters. Assuming the partisan lean in each county of what is uncounted is the same as what has been counted, my spreadsheet has Frisch's lead zipping up from 64 votes to 97 votes. I ignored the 99% counted counties, which makes almost no difference anyway since ignoring those counties changes Frisch's lead from 64 to 233. It's a tossup. I call it tilt Dem just to be polite.



So here is my revised seat ranking. House control as you all knew already is in play. The Dems would need to win its tilt CO-03 seat, the two toss-up seats and two of the three lean Pub seats. What are the odds of doing that? Maybe 10% to 15%. How many seats will the Pubs end up getting? 219.5 seats is my projection. The best path for the Dems is that the late counted CA votes and AZ votes do not prove to be more Pub than what has already been counted. If that happens, the Dems have a clear shot at getting 216 seats, and then can get to 218 by winning two of the following three seats: OR-05, CA-13 and CA-22.

And - drum roll please - what are the odds of a 218-217 House either way? Also maybe 10% to 15%. If that happens, my best suggestion is that Liz Cheney be elected Speaker. Alternatively, I am available. What do you guys think of that suggestion?  



Addendum: I left a bunch of counties off in my C)-03 spreadsheet, like about a score of them. Does it make any difference? No. The "projected Frisch margin instead of being 94, goes up to 412. It's still a jump ball.

[Torie]

A couple of matters. Assuming the partisan lean in each county of what is uncounted is the same as what has been counted, my spreadsheet has Frisch's lead zipping up from 64 votes to 97 votes. I ignored the 99% counted counties, which makes almost no difference anyway since ignoring those counties changes Frisch's lead from 64 to 233. It's a tossup. I call it tilt Dem just to be polite.



So here is my revised seat ranking. House control as you all knew already is in play. The Dems would need to win its tilt CO-03 seat, the two toss-up seats and two of the three lean Pub seats. What are the odds of doing that? Maybe 10% to 15%. How many seats will the Pubs end up getting? 219.5 seats is my projection. The best path for the Dems is that the late counted CA votes and AZ votes do not prove to be more Pub than what has already been counted. If that happens, the Dems have a clear shot at getting 216 seats, and then can get to 218 by winning two of the following three seats: OR-05, CA-13 and CA-22.

And - drum roll please - what are the odds of a 218-217 House either way? Also maybe 10% to 15%. If that happens, my best suggestion is that Liz Cheney be elected Speaker. Alternatively, I am available. What do you guys think of that suggestion?  

Washington 3 is likely D? The vote so far looks good for Dems but I’d keep it at lean or even title out of caution. Also, I feel like everyone here is being a bit too generous to Garcia. Given the national results he’s def vulnerable, and we have no clue what vote is in yet.

The county splits of the percentage of counted versus uncounted votes are not kind to Mr. Kent; brutal would probably be the appropriate adjective here. He's DOA unless the uncounted vote in Clark County* is a heck of a lot more Pub than what has been counted. Is that a thing in WA in the way it used to be in CA (and maybe still is, that is the lifeline that keeps that nebbish, Ken Calvert from drowning), and apparently will be in AZ for the drop box vote?

*Do you know why Clark County attracts fiscal conservatives rather than rabid MAGA social conservative nutters?  Yes, you guessed it. It's the tax haven of the nation, yes it is. You see WA state has no state income tax, while Oregon has no sales tax. So you live and work in Clark County, and cross the bridge to shop in Portland. As you drive back across the bridge with your expensive appliances, you hope that you don't get stopped by the sales tax police. You see, you pay sales tax based on where you plan to use the product, not where you purchase stuff. Did you know that? It is really a use tax rather than a sales tax.

[Torie]

Looking at АndriуValeriovych's map, I would give the GOP NY-22, CA-22, CA-27, and CA-45, and give the Dems CO-03 and CA-41. So 216 for the GOP and 215 for the Dems.

Dems would need to win 3/4 of the remaining tossups: AZ-01, CA-03, WA-03, and OR-05.

A tall order? Maybe. But I think it's possible.

Maybe I’m being ignorant, but I think Salas takes CA-22. It seems like there’s a clear R counting bias in the Central Valley at present and I imagine it will correct itself to an extent. Even if you accept that Dems are unpopular because of gas or whatever, I don’t think Padilla is going to lose Trump+10 Kern County by 24%, for example.

[Torie]

Well I trusted you guys in a lapse of judgement (trust but verify), but in MD-06 the Pub Parrot is ahead and the splits absent a somewhat material variation between counted and uncounted votes (the uncounted votes per the county splits also favor Parrot a bit, and the notion it was the opposite seems to be an urban legend, or at least an Atlas legend), so MD-06 moves in the Torie universe moves from likely Dem to lean Pub. So the Torie projection moves from 219.5 to 220.25.

I am using NYT for called races. That caused a removal of MT-01 and insertion of AZ-02.

[Torie]

Well I trusted you guys in a lapse of judgement (trust but verify), but in MD-06 the Pub Parrot is ahead and the splits absent a somewhat material variation between counted and uncounted votes (the uncounted votes per the county splits also favor Parrot a bit, and the notion it was the opposite seems to be an urban legend, or at least an Atlas legend), so MD-06 moves in the Torie universe moves from likely Dem to lean Pub. So the Torie projection moves from 219.5 to 220.25.

Where are you seeing this info btw. I'm surprised how remarkably quiet people have been about MD-06.

If Dems lose it, another big L considering it's a Biden + 10 seat in the DC area.

I look at CNN for the county splits and percentage of vote counted.

[Torie]

Well I trusted you guys in a lapse of judgement (trust but verify), but in MD-06 the Pub Parrot is ahead and the splits absent a somewhat material variation between counted and uncounted votes (the uncounted votes per the county splits also favor Parrot a bit, and the notion it was the opposite seems to be an urban legend, or at least an Atlas legend), so MD-06 moves in the Torie universe moves from likely Dem to lean Pub. So the Torie projection moves from 219.5 to 220.25.

Where are you seeing this info btw. I'm surprised how remarkably quiet people have been about MD-06.

If Dems lose it, another big L considering it's a Biden + 10 seat in the DC area.

I look at CNN for the county splits and percentage of vote counted.

But shouldn't you use a breakdown of the type of votes outstanding when you make your projections?

Sure if there is any info in the public square that I don't know, and some other Atlasian does.
Do you have some info you want to share to enlighten all of Atlasia, and perhaps cause great rejoicing, or at least declare that it is beer time?

[Torie]

Well I trusted you guys in a lapse of judgement (trust but verify), but in MD-06 the Pub Parrot is ahead and the splits absent a somewhat material variation between counted and uncounted votes (the uncounted votes per the county splits also favor Parrot a bit, and the notion it was the opposite seems to be an urban legend, or at least an Atlas legend), so MD-06 moves in the Torie universe moves from likely Dem to lean Pub. So the Torie projection moves from 219.5 to 220.25.

Where are you seeing this info btw. I'm surprised how remarkably quiet people have been about MD-06.

If Dems lose it, another big L considering it's a Biden + 10 seat in the DC area.

I look at CNN for the county splits and percentage of vote counted.

But shouldn't you use a breakdown of the type of votes outstanding when you make your projections?

I have a dream. If Parrot gets in the House, by unanimous consent, Parrot should be allowed to give his pet parrot his vote by proxy, so Parrot via his pet parrot can vote yeah or nay. Yeah. Catch it! Let's get back to being human again.

[Torie]

Well I trusted you guys in a lapse of judgement (trust but verify), but in MD-06 the Pub Parrot is ahead and the splits absent a somewhat material variation between counted and uncounted votes (the uncounted votes per the county splits also favor Parrot a bit, and the notion it was the opposite seems to be an urban legend, or at least an Atlas legend), so MD-06 moves in the Torie universe moves from likely Dem to lean Pub. So the Torie projection moves from 219.5 to 220.25.

Where are you seeing this info btw. I'm surprised how remarkably quiet people have been about MD-06.

If Dems lose it, another big L considering it's a Biden + 10 seat in the DC area.

I look at CNN for the county splits and percentage of vote counted.

But shouldn't you use a breakdown of the type of votes outstanding when you make your projections?

Yes those are the current results but all the outstanding vote is probably extremely favorable to Trone.

You all keep telling me that as an assertion of fact, but perhaps a linky poo perhaps to enlighten the not always quick on the switch senior citizen?

[Torie]

Well I trusted you guys in a lapse of judgement (trust but verify), but in MD-06 the Pub Parrot is ahead and the splits absent a somewhat material variation between counted and uncounted votes (the uncounted votes per the county splits also favor Parrot a bit, and the notion it was the opposite seems to be an urban legend, or at least an Atlas legend), so MD-06 moves in the Torie universe moves from likely Dem to lean Pub. So the Torie projection moves from 219.5 to 220.25.

Where are you seeing this info btw. I'm surprised how remarkably quiet people have been about MD-06.

If Dems lose it, another big L considering it's a Biden + 10 seat in the DC area.

I look at CNN for the county splits and percentage of vote counted.

But shouldn't you use a breakdown of the type of votes outstanding when you make your projections?

Sure if there is any info in the public square that I don't know, and some other Atlasian does.
Do you have some info you want to share to enlighten all of Atlasia, and perhaps cause great rejoicing, or at least declare that it is beer time?

?? I don't have any inside knowledge, just what's been widely reported and discussed here and by the "experts" on Twitter

Praise Jesus.

[Torie]

The slings and arrows and yes, a smidgen of actual data, caused a revision, signifying not much as to even the most nerdish of them all.

[Torie]

Tim,

The county splits my dear, absent chat about the partisan lean of late counted ballots in WA, or something else, by someone who knows and can back it up, as opposed to just one or none of the two.

[Torie]

NV and AZ are taking way too long with these "drops", IMO.

It's kind of annoying.

They have to verify signatures, one by one by one.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1591187229262553088?s=20&t=472jj5_dQQ...

One of the only specific political ads I received this cycle (along with a DeSantis one) was a Salas on youtube in Spanish. It was honestly not a “great” ad it was just a generic shill…but that shows that Salas really has been investing in trying to reach younger Latino voters in the district. (No clue why I got one…I’ve never been to that part of CA in my life) Anyways, hopefully it pays off.

That chart is useless given that it does not disclose the estimated percentage of votes left to county in each county.

[Torie]

The NYT article is not worth linking, but this snippet suggests that my visceral reaction to the personna of Blake Masters was not idiosyncratic.

Complicating matters in the Senate was the fact that Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, and Mr. Trump are not on speaking terms. After several first-time, Trump-backed candidates won primaries, Mr. McConnell complained over the summer about his party’s “candidate quality.”

Among his targets was Arizona’s Blake Masters.

During the summer, Steven Law, the head of a McConnell-aligned super PAC, told the financier Peter Thiel, who had spent millions supporting Mr. Masters, that Mr. Masters had scored the worst focus group results of any candidate he had ever seen, according to people familiar with the conversation.

Mr. Law’s group later canceled all of its Arizona television reservations.

The article also comments McConnell's relationship with Senator Rick Scott (the guy who suggested Medicare and Social Security should be put on the chopping block), the Pub Senate campaign chair, is about as congenial as his relationship with Trump.

Finally Trump threatened to withdraw his endorsement of Lombardo in NV when Lombardo failed to declaim that Trump was the greatest President ever, forcing Lombardo to then issue a statement that Trump was great, and then fawn all over him at a rally. That reminded me of McCarthy having to do the same thing.

And now Trump is going to announce his run for POTUS, and put the nail in the coffin on Walker's chances.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1591432128700596224

I think OR 5 is more likely to go d than WA 3 is to go R based on what people are saying

My projection of a couple of days ago that the Pubs would get 200.25 seats is looking pretty good. Granted, I admit the accuracy of my number is mostly luck, since I don't claim to be the genius that Wasserman seems to think he is.

Here is my list from then, with races called since filled in.

[Torie]

AZ-06 is deja vu all over again from 2020, as to just about everything. It just moved a tiny bit R overall, which is why the seat is lean R.

[Torie]

...

Excellent summary, but you are a bit off for AZ-06. The R is lagging in small Greenlee and Graham, but running ahead in considerably more populated Pinal and Cochise as compared to Biden, and Pinal has a slightly bigger percentage of the pie than before, perhaps due to higher growth. See my chart above. I would rather be the R here by a bit. The last vote dump out of Pima really did not change the odds.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/HWLavelleMaps/status/1591533014399451142
Dan Newhouse will probably be the only impeachment Republican in the House remaining.

So that dump is good for Dems I gather?

Yes, for Salas to be on track to win the seat, he only needs to win Kern by about 9%.

The existing break in Kern is 53-47. So this Salas chat seems to be based either on new math, or late ballot counts will be more Dem. There was no ballot count today that I see. Tulare also has some uncounted ballots.