Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[2016]

Yall think Eric Holder will endorse in this primary?

I just know Team Biden is holding some huge Black endorsements in the arsenal for (1) MLK Weekend and (2) the pivotal weeks before the SC Primary. 

South Carolina will become "MEANINGLESS" for Joe Biden if he can't pull off a Victory in either Iowa or New Hampshire.

Do ya'll really think he can still win the Nomination if he loses IA & NH? This isn't 1992.

In recent Democratic Nominations the eventual D-Nominee has either won IA or NH.

[2016]

Sanders, please put that Biden Guy out of Political Business for good. That You!

[2016]

There are numerous Reports out over the last few Days that say that the Biden Campaign looks disorganized in Iowa.

It would be an absolute shock if he wins tomorrow.

[2016]

Biden was always going to do poorly in Iowa, but his collapse in NH is a bit alarming. I would not be surprised if some polls coming out of SC would show an erosion of his support to someone like Steyer, who has made inroad with the AA community.

The calendar is brutal for Biden. Imagine if South Carolina was in any position earlier in the caldenar than 4th.

Biden is trying to pull a Clinton anno 1992. It won't work!

[2016]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1227264088818044930

Joe's in full panic mode now. Hard to see how he survives a loss to Steyer in SC, but Biden may stay in for Super Tuesday since it would be just a few days away.

The Biden Campaign is remisent of the Jeb Bush Campaign in 2016. SC was Jebs last Stand and he lost there as well.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1227264088818044930

Joe's in full panic mode now. Hard to see how he survives a loss to Steyer in SC, but Biden may stay in for Super Tuesday since it would be just a few days away.

The Biden Campaign is remisent of the Jeb Bush Campaign in 2016. SC was Jebs last Stand and he lost there as well.

Jeb! never had the lead in SC that Biden has enjoyed. This sort of reminds me of Giuliani in 2008, who maintained a lead in FL until a few weeks before the primary.

I still think Biden's firewall in SC can hold, but I don't think he will have the margin necessary to springboard into Super Tuesday. Steyer is still blanketing the airwaves here and Biden does not have the cash to compete.

How is Biden's SC Firewall supposed to hold if he doesn't get a WIN in Nevada?

IOWA: Biden 4th

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Likely 4th or 5th (Imagine if he gets beaten by Buttigieg & Klobuchar). That's not good optics for a guy who is supposed the most electable Candidate.

NEVADA: I don't think he's going to win there either.

[2016]

I'd still say Biden is the favorite in SC regardless of what happens in NV, and a victory there would probably let him stay in on Super Tuesday.

Margins do matter here. Even if Biden wins in SC my gut feel is that he won't get that massive bump Hillary got out of SC in 2016. Bernie only got 26 % in SC in 2016. You can probably bet your house that he will do much better than that and better with AA in general this time around.

[2016]

This Article by Politico might be worth reading:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/15/joe-biden-south-carolina-firewall-114862
Uncle Joe's SC Firewall is under siege.

[2016]

Given Warrens strong Debate Performance 1-3 in Nevada could be:
Sanders
Warren
Biden

provided Liz gets the same bump Klob got in NH.

[2016]

So much for that so called Biden Spin "Strong 2nd Place in Nevada". It's anything but strong. And he might even lose the Popular Vote to Mayor Pete.

[2016]

Biden is spending the entire week including Saturday 29th (The Day of the SC Primary) in South Carolina. Sanders is in SC until Friday, then heads to Richmond, Virginia Saturday & Sunday.

When has Biden last campaigned in a Super Tuesday State? He is really relying on surrogates (Endorsers) in the respective States and their State Infrastructures. That is not a good place to be even if he wins SC.

Now compare that to Sanders who has apparently LEGIONS of Volunteers knocking on Doors in all the March 3 States.

So my Question is this: Where does Joe Biden go from SC (should he win it)?

[2016]

Biden has seen his support collapse dramatically among White-Dems (Especially White Female DEMs nationally), so naturally Biden has an "Anglo White Problem"...

Biden is still popular with divorced highly educated low income white Catholic males between 40-64 years of age.

He lost every voting Group in Nevada except for Voters 65+. How do you supposed to win a National Primary Election if you can't expand beyond older folks is beyond me!

[2016]

Biden has seen his support collapse dramatically among White-Dems (Especially White Female DEMs nationally), so naturally Biden has an "Anglo White Problem"...

Biden is still popular with divorced highly educated low income white Catholic males between 40-64 years of age.

He lost every voting Group in Nevada except for Voters 65+. How do you supposed to win a National Primary Election if you can't expand beyond older folks is beyond me!

He doesn't win. Biden's strategy is to reinforce and then build a citadel around the African American and extremely elderly White vote. Maybe others will willingly enter his fortress as the race progresses, but that is secondary. He wants to carve out his niche in one of the communities that Bernie struggles to capture (and who control ~30% of conversation delegates), and then hold onto that niche no matter what. With luck, the other Bernie-warry groups sort themselves out in a manner that allows Bidens citadel to stand strong in Milwaukee.

Step one of this process was to get all the Free press from Nevada showing that you still are still relevant and can carry votes in the AA community. Step two is to win SC, hopefully convincingly, and get significant momentum solely in the AA community. Step three than is to rack up wins in the southern Super Tuesday States (divided wins, but wins) and prove your relevance. This path should be viable enough to get all the AA states into the tent. Thanks to all the southern states being frontloaded into March, Biden can strike while the iron is hot. Only Louisiana, DC, Maryland, and Delaware are after March when the question of whether we are going to the convention or not should be resolved.

Biden ain't popular anymore. Give it up! He won't win.

[2016]

Biden has seen his support collapse dramatically among White-Dems (Especially White Female DEMs nationally), so naturally Biden has an "Anglo White Problem"...

Biden is still popular with divorced highly educated low income white Catholic males between 40-64 years of age.

He lost every voting Group in Nevada except for Voters 65+. How do you supposed to win a National Primary Election if you can't expand beyond older folks is beyond me!

He doesn't win. Biden's strategy is to reinforce and then build a citadel around the African American and extremely elderly White vote. Maybe others will willingly enter his fortress as the race progresses, but that is secondary. He wants to carve out his niche in one of the communities that Bernie struggles to capture (and who control ~30% of conversation delegates), and then hold onto that niche no matter what. With luck, the other Bernie-warry groups sort themselves out in a manner that allows Bidens citadel to stand strong in Milwaukee.

Step one of this process was to get all the Free press from Nevada showing that you still are still relevant and can carry votes in the AA community. Step two is to win SC, hopefully convincingly, and get significant momentum solely in the AA community. Step three than is to rack up wins in the southern Super Tuesday States (divided wins, but wins) and prove your relevance. This path should be viable enough to get all the AA states into the tent. Thanks to all the southern states being frontloaded into March, Biden can strike while the iron is hot. Only Louisiana, DC, Maryland, and Delaware are after March when the question of whether we are going to the convention or not should be resolved.

Biden ain't popular anymore. Give it up! He won't win.

I don't support Biden. I don't like any of the 7 running. I'm just looking at the data, his movements, and projecting the actions of a rational actor .

I think Clyburns Endorsement is overstated as Nate Silver is correctly pointing out. This ain't 2016. Biden not only needs a win in SC and the March 3 Southern States. He needs to win them BIG.
Sandern will be viable in all of the March 3 States and I've seen Polls where Biden might not be getting over that 15 % threshold namely Maine, Utah, Colorado, maybe Massachusetts.
Sanders is using a similar strategy Obama used to beat Hillary in 2008. He is running up big margins in CA, UT, CO, VT, MA, ME. I'm not sure how Biden can counter that when he spent NO Money on March 3 and barely set a foot in those States since losing NH. The Biden Campaign is in survival mode banking on a Debate Flop by Sanders now. That's the only way he can get back into this.

Biden spending the entire week in SC tells you in fact how SC has shifted and how much Uncle Joe is on Defense here.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1231968396935344128

Enough said!

[2016]

Did Joe Biden just say at the CNN Town Hall he wants to do away the 2nd Amendment or come close to it?

[2016]

The Ukraine scandal took its toll on Biden, as well and it sidelined Jill Biden. Jill was out campaigning for Joe Biden and when the Ukraine scandal broke, women left Biden and moved to Bernie

But wait, that was supposed Nancys Grand Masterplan to impeach Trump to help Biden and keep all these Senators in Washington. It didn't work.

[2016]

Biden's entire Campaign now hinges on African-American Turnout:

South Carolina has the biggest followed by Alabama BUT

SC' 16: 61 %
AL '16: 54 %
AR '16: 27 %
VA '16: 26 %
NC' 16: 32 %
TN' 16: 32 %

It's tough when your entire strategy is AA. Clinton even beat Sanders very badly among White Voters in these States. Biden has to hope that that White Vote in AR, VA, NC, TN is really muddled to pull off Wins beyond SC & AL.

[2016]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/27/biden-super-pac-118000

A super PAC backing Joe Biden is making a “low six-figure” digital ad buy ahead of Super Tuesday, a small sum spread across 14 states just as Biden tries to reset his campaign with a win in the South Carolina primary.

The group, Unite the Country, spent more than $4.5 million in Iowa but has spent just $1.3 million in other places so far, according to Advertising Analytics, as Biden struggled in the earliest states and Bernie Sanders gained momentum in the Democratic primary. Biden’s campaign had to take a thrifty approach to Super Tuesday, preparing its own six-figure ad campaign only this week.
.
.
.
Schale said the super PAC is focusing heavily on African American turnout and persuasion in five Super Tuesday states: North Carolina, Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama and Tennessee.

Steve Schale, LOL
Remember, that's the guy who told us Gillum would be Governor in FL and Nelson would still be Senator. Schale is such a crocket.

[2016]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/01/politics/joe-biden-super-tuesday/index.html

Enough said! In most States Biden has No Organization. If Sanders Ground Game is good Bernie will have a significant Delegate lead.

[2016]

Biden making some last-minute ad spending in California:

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1234480192585977857

We'll see on Tuesday if this will be enough to make an impact.

They have NO Ground Game. They're outstaffed as CNN noted. You cannot win States like CA purely relying on Surrogates. It's insane people think Biden will do well tomorrow. Even Biden Campaign Aides telling the Media Bernie will have a Delegate lead after tomorrow. That's very telling!

Also, the Map looks very unfavorable for Biden:
On March 10th Idaho, North Dakota (Caucus), Michigan, Washington State and Mississippi are voting. Safe for MS the other 4 States will go to Sanders.

[2016]

Biden making some last-minute ad spending in California:

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1234480192585977857

We'll see on Tuesday if this will be enough to make an impact.

They have NO Ground Game. They're outstaffed as CNN noted. You cannot win States like CA purely relying on Surrogates. It's insane people think Biden will do well tomorrow. Even Biden Campaign Aides telling the Media Bernie will have a Delegate lead after tomorrow. That's very telling!

Also, the Map looks very unfavorable for Biden:
On March 10th Idaho, North Dakota (Caucus), Michigan, Washington State and Mississippi are voting. Safe for MS the other 4 States will go to Sanders.

And the next week Biden will steam roll Bernie in Florida and do the same in Georgia the next week.

We haven't even gotten to the extremely friendly Biden states along the ACELA corridor in April. This thing is not over. Especially if Bloomberg drops out and runs a shadow campaign for Biden.

Bidens entire ARGUEMENT is African-American Voters ALL while losing by Double Digits to Sanders with Hispanics.

After tomorrow there are only 4 Biden-friendly AA Southern States left. MS, GA, LA and FL. If Sanders wins Latinos in CA & TX there is no reason to believe he won't win them elsewhere. Biden has completely abandoned the Hispanic Community.

[2016]

Biden with all these Endorsements has a TARGET on his back tomorrow not just Sanders.

The underlying Question for Super Tuesday:

Can Bidens Endorsements & Momentum outmatch Sanders Organization & Ground Game? Answer, yes it can see Trump/Clinton in 2016 but will it or did these Endos come to late.

[2016]

Sanders has an African-American Problem, Joe Biden though has an even bigger Problem: He lost the Hispanic/Latino Vote to Sanders in every single State with Mayor Hispanic Population...

Texas: 26-39 to Sanders

Colorado: 17-45 to Sanders

California: 22-49 to Sanders

Nevada: 17-50 to Sanders

Biden is losing them whether it's a Caucus or a Primary.

Hispanics are the fastest growing Population in the Country. Seems like that they are still sour on him after all the promises from the Obama/Biden Administration for 8 years.

As long as Sanders winning them there is no reason to get OUT of the Race.

[2016]

Sanders has an African-American Problem, Joe Biden though has an even bigger Problem: He lost the Hispanic/Latino Vote to Sanders in every single State with Mayor Hispanic Population...

Texas: 26-39 to Sanders

Colorado: 17-45 to Sanders

California: 22-49 to Sanders

Nevada: 17-50 to Sanders

Biden is losing them whether it's a Caucus or a Primary.

Hispanics are the fastest growing Population in the Country. Seems like that they are still sour on him after all the promises from the Obama/Biden Administration for 8 years.

As long as Sanders winning them there is no reason to get OUT of the Race.

Huge problem with this argument:

Nevada was before South Carolina

Colorado, California, and Texas have big portion of votes that were cast early (before South Carolina).

Your Argument is going down the drain:
Biden lost Hispanics on both Accounts, Early and E-Day Vote in CO, CA, TX.

Lots of promises where made by Obama even in his first 4 years about Immigration, nothing came to fruition. And then when things were not going well for that Obama jerk in the WH always blame Republicans. I'm sick and tired of this.