COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Calthrina950]

There’s virtually no country in the Western world that has succeeded at truly controlling the virus.  The only realistic policy that would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives would have been vaccine challenge trials. 

At this point, it seems like the decision is largely between extended strict lockdowns and a lower number of deaths, or an open economy and more deaths. None of the countries that had been held up as better at handling it than the US have actually conquered it and they won't until there's a vaccine. It's too good at spreading.

Which of those two options is the right one? We're going to be debating that long after this is in the rearview mirror.

Sweden appears to have taken this path, while in this country, it seems like states like Indiana and Florida, after having utilized the lockdown approach, are now doing so as well. Other states however-i.e. Michigan and California, remain in virtual lockdown mode, and probably will be until the vaccine arrives. It's clear at this point that this is going to consume much of 2021 as well. What an ominous start to the decade this pandemic has been.

[Calthrina950]

With Florida throwing its doors back open, how long will it take before we start noticing a spike in cases? About two weeks?

Not gonna happen. Guaranteed.

Tennessee also ended all remaining restrictions this week.  But, the thing in Tennessee (and probably Florida) is that there haven't been any significant restrictions in a while.  Large, maskless gatherings have been happening.  Restaurants have been bustling like there was no covid.  My church's attendance is almost back to pre-covid levels (and 99% don't wear masks).  Groups of friends will play sports with each other, inherently coming in contact with others.  People hug and shake hands when they see each other.  Other than my work (by national corporate policy) still being work-from-home, my life is basically back to where it was in February (and actually, I'm probably seeing more people due to prioritizing community more).  That's the same for most people I know.

So, these liftings of the handful of restrictions that still remain might get press, but people's behavior has long shown that covid is over (not in terms of virus spread, but in terms of people being willing to forego living normally) in large swaths of America.  In my bubble of young evangelicals in suburban Tennessee, you would never even know that there was a virus.

One thing I've continued to notice-and which I've made note of-is that the numbers of maskless customers at my job have increased, and are increasing. The breakdown is probably closer to 75-25% at this point. I am starting to seriously doubt whether or not all of this can be sustained for another six or seven months. Yes, I'm aware of the deaths and illnesses attributable to this virus, but I've grown increasingly frustrated with the masks and all of the other dystopian restrictions which has been brought out because of the virus.

[Calthrina950]

With Florida throwing its doors back open, how long will it take before we start noticing a spike in cases? About two weeks?

Not gonna happen. Guaranteed.

Tennessee also ended all remaining restrictions this week.  But, the thing in Tennessee (and probably Florida) is that there haven't been any significant restrictions in a while.  Large, maskless gatherings have been happening.  Restaurants have been bustling like there was no covid.  My church's attendance is almost back to pre-covid levels (and 99% don't wear masks).  Groups of friends will play sports with each other, inherently coming in contact with others.  People hug and shake hands when they see each other.  Other than my work (by national corporate policy) still being work-from-home, my life is basically back to where it was in February (and actually, I'm probably seeing more people due to prioritizing community more).  That's the same for most people I know.

So, these liftings of the handful of restrictions that still remain might get press, but people's behavior has long shown that covid is over (not in terms of virus spread, but in terms of people being willing to forego living normally) in large swaths of America.  In my bubble of young evangelicals in suburban Tennessee, you would never even know that there was a virus.

One thing I've continued to notice-and which I've made note of-is that the numbers of maskless customers at my job have increased, and are increasing. The breakdown is probably closer to 75-25% at this point. I am starting to seriously doubt whether or not all of this can be sustained for another six or seven months. Yes, I'm aware of the deaths and illnesses attributable to this virus, but I've grown increasingly frustrated with the masks and all of the other dystopian restrictions which has been brought out because of the virus.

Grocery stores seem to be pretty much masked up (even though we have no mask mandate in my county), but it kind of feels like a front because grocery stores are really the only place people actually seem to be wearing them.  Although, I suppose you could make an argument that everyone has to eat, but by choosing to go to some other place, you are implicitly accepting the (small) increase in risk.

I've taken a step back from this thread because I find debating covid to be uniquely unproductive, but I was just wanting to say that people who don't want to be social distancing (which is probably most people in terms of actions, if not in stated poll responses) haven't been social distancing in months and that this isn't going to suddenly take a bunch of people from quarantine to normal life.  People have already divided into one camp or the other.

I don't work at a grocery store; I work at a hardware store (Home Depot). But I understand the point which you're trying to make. And even at my job, social distancing has been nonexistent throughout this. Sure, they have the distancing markers, but people tended to keep apart when waiting in lines even before the pandemic started, and it's virtually impossible to keep your distance from the cashier, with or without a physical barrier, or from nearby individuals, when you are at an actual register. And of course, there's many people who simply don't care about the guidelines: I've had people give me handshakes or "high-fives", in complete disregard of those guidelines.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1311820562587619333

Yet another Trump associate has the virus. I'm just hoping that Trump himself-loathsome human being that he is-doesn't get it. That would spell more trouble for our country than it has already endured.

[Calthrina950]

Yet another Trump associate has the virus. I'm just hoping that Trump himself-loathsome human being that he is-doesn't get it. That would spell more trouble for our country than it has already endured.

I would bet that he already has.

If he does, then 2020 will be even more of a disastrous year than we previously thought. Thank God that the Commission on Presidential Debates discarded the traditional handshake at the debate, and that Trump and Biden were at a distance on the stage. It would be even worse if Biden got it also.

[Calthrina950]

Yet another Trump associate has the virus. I'm just hoping that Trump himself-loathsome human being that he is-doesn't get it. That would spell more trouble for our country than it has already endured.

I would bet that he already has.

And you are right! This is astonishing news for me to see, before I go to bed.

[Calthrina950]

LMAO, they really didn't give a flying f *ck


https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1312064332306542592?s=20

You can see Chris Christie in that clip-and Christie is of course an ABC political contributor, and was on ABC's debate panel Tuesday night. One wonders if he might have contracted it and passed it to the ABC journalists. We shall see..

[Calthrina950]

The WHO now estimates the IFR at just 0.13%.  Covid may be super contagious, but, in terms of severity of the illness, it literally is just the flu.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1312180625412038656

This does seem to confirm what has been speculated for months-that far more people have contracted (and recovered) from the virus than official figures would suggest. And it is blatantly obvious by now that the virus most severely affects the elderly, obese, and those with pre-existing conditions. But I'm not sure if I'm willing to go so far and dismiss this virus as "just the flu." This is the most serious pandemic which has struck in decades, and more than 200,000 Americans have died from it-a number that also shouldn't be dismissed.

[Calthrina950]

The WHO now estimates the IFR at just 0.13%.  Covid may be super contagious, but, in terms of severity of the illness, it literally is just the flu.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1312180625412038656

This does seem to confirm what has been speculated for months-that far more people have contracted (and recovered) from the virus than official figures would suggest. And it is blatantly obvious by now that the virus most severely affects the elderly, obese, and those with pre-existing conditions. But I'm not sure if I'm willing to go so far and dismiss this virus as "just the flu." This is the most serious pandemic which has struck in decades, and more than 200,000 Americans have died from it-a number that also shouldn't be dismissed.

I agree that this is the worst pandemic in my lifetime (that's obvious), but that is almost wholly explained by covid being more contagious than the flu, not by it being an especially severe illness to those who get it. Swine flu was also super contagious (maybe even moreso than covid), but it's now believed that it was as much as 10 times less deadly than the seasonal flu.  So, I think it's unfair of people on the right who try to compare covid to swine flu.  If anything, a severe flu season that happens to be caught by 2-3x as many people is the best comparsion.

An interesting comparison to me looks like 1957-58's "Asian Flu", which is estimated to have sickened 15-20% of the global population, but had a low fatality rate as well (listed as "<0.2%" on Wikipedia).  To my knowledge, that didn't cause major stops to society or modifications in how we live our lives.

For many people, this is the case, but it's certainly not true for all-as the death figures would indicate. What I was more getting at is that this virus shouldn't be dismissed so easily, especially given the massive effects it has had on societies everywhere this year. Hopefully, we have learned lessons from this pandemic that will enable us to avoid such a systematic disruption of life in the future, whenever the next pandemic strikes (and there will be another one, I'm certain of that at this point).

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1313851128946229248

There have been several schools in my area (El Paso County) which have been forced to suspend classes or transition to online learning because of coronavirus outbreaks. And one of the colleges here-Colorado College, which is a private liberal arts school-has moved to online learning for the rest of the semester as well, after hundreds of students were forced to quarantine because of a series of positive cases on campus. Given all of this, it's astonishing to me that we still have so many people disregarding the coronavirus precautions, and the numbers seem to be increasing as we move forward into October. At my job today, I've noticed that the number of maskless customers has increased, and it is now approaching 20-25%.

Polis' mask mandate has now been in force for almost three months, and I expect it to be extended again in due course. But many people have shown that they just don't care, and there is only so much that mask mandates can do to induce compliance. Trump supporters seem to be particularly complicit in defying the order. Yes, most of them have been, and are continuing, to wear masks or facial coverings. I've lost count of how many "MAGA" or "Trump" masks, faceshields, facial coverings, etc. that I've seen at this point.

But others are refusing to do so. Last week, I had a maskless customer who was wearing a shirt that said "All Black Lives Matter, including those who aren't Socialist, Totalitarian Democrats." I had another maskless customer today wearing a shirt that said "Infowars.com" on the back and "Trump is my President" on the front. As I've said before, Trump's downplaying of the pandemic and his months-long refusal to wear a mask has had a permanent effect, one that will be difficult to overcome after seven months.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1313879186126319617

Very few people care about what "Hanoi Jane" (as she's been referred to by Vietnam War veterans for decades) has to think-although it is true that this pandemic has been politicized by far too many, and with unfortunate consequences. Virtue-signaling "doomers" and mask-averse virus denialists both fall into that category.

[Calthrina950]

I just got home from a trip to several national parks in Colorado and Utah. Most people I saw on this trip seem to have forgotten there's a pandemic. Not everyone of course, but a majority.

This is me in the common area of a motel in Glenwood Springs, Colo., on Thursday...

Stay the f**k out of here.
We don’t need more crazies, we already have Boulder as it is.

You're a Democrat saying this? I agree with you though-Boulder is probably the most liberal city in Colorado. Interestingly enough, I've only been there once in my life (and I was born and raised in Colorado Springs)-for a field trip during my junior year of high school. That was about six years ago.

[Calthrina950]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

[Calthrina950]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

Well, honestly, I don't know at this point. It's above my pay grade, but an unchecked pandemic will lead to massive deaths.

At least shut down indoor dining and bars. Every bit of evidence I have seen suggests that is the most dangerous public activity going on.

I highly doubt that such a move is going to happen, and the economic damage for restaurants and bars will become even more staggering than what has already been inflicted if it occurs. Imposing renewed lockdowns, I believe, would have disadvantages that would outweigh the advantages we might incur.

[Calthrina950]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

This is correct, folks, we have tried everything. Except maybe a "stay outside" order, which won't go over too well as cold weather comes.

So all we can do is stop worrying about it. People are not equipped to panic for months on end. Around here, I already see maskless customers and employees of indoor stores. Nobody worries about social distancing anymore, and families have big gatherings. And this is near a major city, not some rural area. People are done with fear and panic.

Among the few exceptions is that every time someone announces some event on Facebook, it always says something like, "SOCIAL DISTANCING WILL BE PRACTICED." Yeah. Sure.

Not everyone is as done with it as you and your area are. My family isn't doing a Thanksgiving dinner because of the virus. And I still haven't seen someone in a grocery store without a mask since April, not even 1.

It seems like the level of mask-adherence depends upon the locality one lives in. Here in Colorado, Polis extended his mask mandate by another month about a week ago. That means it will have been in force for four months by the time its up for renewal again in mid-November (and make no mistake, it will be renewed again). However, the number of maskless customers at my workplace and elsewhere has solidified itself at around 25% or so, higher than what it was immediately after the mandate was issued, but still lower than before July.

[Calthrina950]

I'm not sure if it is me, but there seems like there has been a huge amount of death this year. Obviously, the pandemic has resulted in the deaths of over 200,000 Americans, and I recall seeing somewhere that that coronavirus is now the second or third leading cause of death in the country this year. This pandemic certainly has been a macabre reminder of the realities of mortality. I can only imagine what things would be like by now if as many people had died from this as died from the Black Death at this stage in its progress.

[Calthrina950]

Governors around the country are about to face the worst of this pandemic (save Governor Cuomo). They need to start planning and acting quickly to forestall mass death. Despite nasty numbers for most of the year, most of the country hasn't seen what NYC has. The infection rate is rising far too rapidly and the healthcare system isn't going to be able to keep up. It's going to inevitably start collapsing. That's what really scared me when this started early this year. So far, we've mostly been able to prevent that. I'm not sure we're going to be able to prevent that going forward. It's when the healthcare system starts collapsing that the death rate will start to jump considerably. Even if we couldn't stop the spread of infection at this point in time as we enter the colder months, the failure to prepare for this moment is so absolutely inexcusable.

Do you think it's likely that we hit the death figures from the Spanish Flu at this rate?

[Calthrina950]

I'm starting to worry that any vaccine will only provide temporary immunity, and that we'll be stuck wearing these bloody masks and taking all these precautions for the rest of our lives. 130,000 cases in a day, and that is after strict mask mandates and social distancing measures in 36 of the 50 states (including all the major population centers: New York, California, Texas, Illinois).  I do not notice a difference in rates between states which have mandated masks and moved schools online and states that haven't. There is evidence which suggests this will become endemic; it won't just go away.

I hope not. Mask-wearing shouldn't be allowed to become a permanent practice, and I hope that it doesn't become one. That would be a soul-crushing existence. But yes, I've started to become doubtful of the efficacy of mask mandates myself, given the extent to which this virus has exploded out of control. I still think that it has been a necessary measure, but it's not the end-all to this situation.

[Calthrina950]

I'm starting to worry that any vaccine will only provide temporary immunity, and that we'll be stuck wearing these bloody masks and taking all these precautions for the rest of our lives. 130,000 cases in a day, and that is after strict mask mandates and social distancing measures in 36 of the 50 states (including all the major population centers: New York, California, Texas, Illinois).  I do not notice a difference in rates between states which have mandated masks and moved schools online and states that haven't. There is evidence which suggests this will become endemic; it won't just go away.

I hope not. Mask-wearing shouldn't be allowed to become a permanent practice, and I hope that it doesn't become one. That would be a soul-crushing existence. But yes, I've started to become doubtful of the efficacy of mask mandates myself, given the extent to which this virus has exploded out of control. I still think that it has been a necessary measure, but it's not the end-all to this situation.

Masks don't stop the virus getting through entirely, but they can significantly reduce the amount getting through and so will make any infection weaker.

I understand that, and I've made the point myself before, but I've become increasingly weary of the mask mandates as this has dragged on, and I certainly don't want them to become permanent.

[Calthrina950]

Yeah, this is not looking good at the moment. It is reassuring to know, though, that Trump is focusing all of his attention on coordinating an effective response to this though, rather than spending all his energy tweeting about conspiracy theories. Oh, wait...

Now that he's lost reelection, Trump is probably not going to do anything further (if he was doing anything to begin with) with regards to the pandemic. Out of spite, he's going to allow the situation to spiral out of control and put the pressure on state governments.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1327816877301772291

I mean, at this point we can't blame people...

Humans are social by nature, and unless the very old and sick are present, I'm fine with people celebrating their holidays together in private.

Because in much of the US right now, in a group of 10 randomly selected adults, it's more likely than not that at least one of them will have COVID, and, during the course of the meal, will infect the other nine.

So that means we should all be planning on having a distanced Thanksgiving?

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1327816877301772291

I mean, at this point we can't blame people...

Humans are social by nature, and unless the very old and sick are present, I'm fine with people celebrating their holidays together in private.

Because in much of the US right now, in a group of 10 randomly selected adults, it's more likely than not that at least one of them will have COVID, and, during the course of the meal, will infect the other nine.

So that means we should all be planning on having a distanced Thanksgiving?

Yes. Or no Thanksgiving at all.

Should we send in some feds to check homes as well?

I mean, it's a deadly pandemic, screw their constitutional rights!

Also didn't see you tell all the Biden supporters that organized super-spreader celebrations that they're "sad".

This is what continues to bother me about all of this. People are being told that they can't gather with their families for Thanksgiving, and potentially Christmas. They're being told that they cannot worship in church, and there have been limitations imposed on funerals and on weddings. Trump rallies were also denounced as super spreader events. Yet there were the BLM protests and riots throughout the summer (and the protests were condoned by many public health officials), and there were the spontaneous street celebrations when Biden was officially projected as the winner. As I've made plain before, I would have no problems with holding off on or limiting social gatherings, but there ought to be a consistent standard applied to all such gatherings, and there hasn't been up to this point.

[Calthrina950]

Two more House members announced Wednesday they have tested positive for Covid-19 and are isolating, the latest in a string of diagnoses that have hit Capitol Hill.

The cases brings CNN's tally to 26 House members and eight senators that have so far tested positive or been presumed positive.

Rep. Dan Newhouse, a Republican from Washington and Rep. Doug Lamborn, a Republican from Colorado, announced separately they had tested positive for Covid-19.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/politics/covid-19-house-members-congress-capitol-hill/index.html

My own Representative has it! That means two members of Colorado's delegation-Perlmutter and Lamborn-have now contracted coronavirus. As I said elsewhere, the virus is spreading through the halls of Congress like wildfire.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1329792061105729541

Well gosh golly jee wilickers isn’t that a dadgum bad turn of events.

A possible development to watch: Scott was here (Forsyth County GA) last week campaigning in person with David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler.

I just noted this elsewhere. I wouldn't be surprised if those two contract the virus at this point. At the rate it's spreading, half of Congress will have it before the year is out.

[Calthrina950]

Over the weekend, Governor Polis of Colorado contracted coronavirus. As far as I am aware, at least four governors have contracted the virus up to this point: Polis, Parson, Stitt, and Gordon. Gov. DeWine of Ohio had a false alarm with regards to the virus. Are there any other Governors that have contracted it?