New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Tintrlvr]

Rooting for Buttigieg but Sanders probably has this. Would be interesting if they’re the only ones who clear 15% though.

Sanders and Buttigieg being the only ones to clear 15% (get delegates) seems quite likely now unless the polls are way off.

[Tintrlvr]

Why are the "applause" mentions in red? I'd find it strange if his supporters didn't react at all to something he said

It would be interesting strategically if he managed to scramble out an ad with this message to run opposite the Biden ads on Monday night, but I agree that a speech to supporters is not so meaningful.

[Tintrlvr]

Why did the Dixville Notch Presidential Primary results collapse so dramatically from 2008?

(17) people voted in Dixville Notch in the NH '08 Primary, and now we are down to (5) total voters in 2020?

Fraud I call.... is Russia now hacking our first early voting from NH....

The hotel resort in town closed and has been in "renovations" - but I'm not sure whether that happened before or after 2008.

Wikipedia says it closed in 2011: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Balsams_Grand_Resort_Hotel

[Tintrlvr]

I'm not quite sure what RLDF's endgame is, but it certainly is a treat for us election nerds to see a single man consistently get on every possible ballot possible since 2016.

He's trying to break John Turmel's world record for most elections lost.

[Tintrlvr]

Only 11% 18-29 in the first wave of polling.

https://twitter.com/actoraaronbooth/status/1227356748454952961?s=21

This will go up.

For reference it was 19% in 2016.

Yeah, some of that is the nature of early exits since young people tend to vote later.

[Tintrlvr]

All I'm going to say is that this feels a lot like Iowa, where Amy won some visible early contests so she controlled the early narrative. However, once the data eventually arrived, she did not live up to the hype. I bring this up because Amy consistently has good debates but consistently can't translate them into votes, a problem for her campaign.

“Consistently”? There has only been one set of votes.

Well, she has also never really managed to have debates move the polling needle much, and, while polls aren't votes, they are pretty close. Even the NH debate didn't move the needle that much in her favor (compare, e.g., how much the polls swung for Kamala Harris after the first debate).

But obviously this remains to be seen whether it will be true in NH. I wouldn't be shocked if she came in second.

[Tintrlvr]

Biden with a dismal 7% so far.

Hey, he's over 2,000 votes ahead of Steyer, Gabbard and Yang!

Gabbard is at least in second somewhere! (She's a vote behind Buttigieg in Pittsburg, the town that borders Canada.)

[Tintrlvr]

Extrapolating from the exit poll gender breakdown gets you:

Sanders: 26
Buttigieg: 22
Klobuchar: 21
Biden: 10
Warren: 9

Would be disappointing if Biden pipped Warren for fourth. Also, if the exit poll is right, Sanders should be thankful Klobuchar had a strong debate.

[Tintrlvr]

How can old black people in South Carolina watch this result and not start to question biden?

They're not watching.

Their TVs are just on constant repeat of Steyer ads at this point.

[Tintrlvr]

That AtlasIntel poll that everyone ridiculed is looking like it's going to be the most accurate pollster. Underestimated Klobuchar by the smallest amount and showed a close Sanders-Buttigieg race. Data Progress also did pretty well again, as they did in Iowa, especially for the top two, but they did underestimate Klobuchar considerably (and overestimate Warren - there might be a correlation there).

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=358606.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=358602.0

[Tintrlvr]

Bernie - 9 Delegates
Butt - 9 Delegates
Klobuchar - 6 Delegates

Biden - 0 Delegates

Buttigieg still narrowly leads Sanders with delegates overall, thanks to edging him out in Iowa. Of course, that will change with Nevada and South Carolina. But Joe Biden's campaign is on life support at this point. His third and last presidential bid, just like his two previous ones in 1988 and 2008, is collapsing into flames.

Biden is fine. All he has to do is get top 3 in NV and win in SC.

Biden would be lucky to finish 4th in Nevada at this point, I think, and even 6th is not out of the question.

[Tintrlvr]

Bernie - 9 Delegates
Butt - 9 Delegates
Klobuchar - 6 Delegates

Biden - 0 Delegates

Buttigieg still narrowly leads Sanders with delegates overall, thanks to edging him out in Iowa. Of course, that will change with Nevada and South Carolina. But Joe Biden's campaign is on life support at this point. His third and last presidential bid, just like his two previous ones in 1988 and 2008, is collapsing into flames.

Biden is fine. All he has to do is get top 3 in NV and win in SC.

I'm not so sure about this. Bill Clinton in 1992 was the last Democratic candidate to win the party's nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire. And he came in second in New Hampshire (whereas Biden came in fifth) and won South Carolina by a decisive margin, much more decisive than what polls are currently indicating for Biden there, with Steyer's surge. And Biden is nowhere near as skilled a candidate as Clinton was.

Also, neither Clinton nor any other candidate other than Tom Harkin contested Iowa in 1992 because it was Harkin's home state, so the result there went completely ignored by the media and was considered irrelevant. Obviously, that was not true of Iowa this time around.

[Tintrlvr]

Warren did manage to win a town, or at least tie one: she tied Sanders for first in Monroe Town, a small Connecticut River town.

[Tintrlvr]

Did weld come close in any towns?

I see he got 30% in Hanover

he won Landaff but there were less than 10 voters

He also did quite well in New Castle (a wealthy island suburb of Portsmouth, easternmost town in the state) with 27%.

Write-ins won Landaff, though Weld placed ahead of Trump, who got zero votes.