New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[SN2903]

I still think dems are gonna have a big problem with white men in the general.

Yea that's always a great demo for them. 

It's not but if they do even worse in 2020 than 2016 with them it's a big problem.

[Horus]

Watching FOX NEWS now:

They have Martha MacCallum, Bret Baier, Brit Hume and Chris Wallace. Decent people.

I'm so relieved that they don't have hyperventilating Megyn Kelly anymore.

Wallace says if Biden finishes 5th he's done. I agree with him.

Yeah I just couldn't do CNN again.  They were constantly ruining my buzz last week.  No doubt they have the best graphics, but I just can't get past their constant state of panic.  

I absolutely can't stand Powers, Sellers, Van Jones and Granholm.

CNN has good people in Borger, Nia Henderson, Smerconish and Axelrod. They just need to put them in more often.

How come you can't stand Van Jones? He's one of the key voices of our time. He can reach Progressive minds, but he also showed a willingness to work with President Trump on criminal justice reform. He often is honest about Trump, and gives Trump credit for some achievements. We need to stand up for voices like Van Jones if we are to ever get an honest dialogue on politics back. He's under extreme pressure by the CNN bosses to tow the line, so keep that in mind.

Van Jones is a Semi-Racist. He called Trumps Win on Air as Whitelash!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MA9aSvHzEIU

Jeffrey Lord was pretty STUNNED when Van Jones said that. For that alone Van Jones should be booted from any Cable News Outlet - Period!

Van Jones is one of the few saving graces of cable news.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's a map of bellwether towns in previous NH primaries:



2016 bellwethers in green, 2008 bellwethers in blue (no town was a bellwether both times, sadly).

Darker shade shows towns that were within 1 percentage point of the statewide results for all major candidates (meaning the winning margin was within 2 points of the statewide one).

Lighter shade shows towns that were within 2 percentage point of the statewide results for all major candidates (meaning the winning margin was within 4 points of the statewide one).

[Oryxslayer]

All I'm going to say is that this feels a lot like Iowa, where Amy won some visible early contests so she controlled the early narrative. However, once the data eventually arrived, she did not live up to the hype. I bring this up because Amy consistently has good debates but consistently can't translate them into votes, a problem for her campaign.

[2016]

Watching FOX NEWS now:

They have Martha MacCallum, Bret Baier, Brit Hume and Chris Wallace. Decent people.

I'm so relieved that they don't have hyperventilating Megyn Kelly anymore.

Wallace says if Biden finishes 5th he's done. I agree with him.

Yeah I just couldn't do CNN again.  They were constantly ruining my buzz last week.  No doubt they have the best graphics, but I just can't get past their constant state of panic.  

I absolutely can't stand Powers, Sellers, Van Jones and Granholm.

CNN has good people in Borger, Nia Henderson, Smerconish and Axelrod. They just need to put them in more often.

How come you can't stand Van Jones? He's one of the key voices of our time. He can reach Progressive minds, but he also showed a willingness to work with President Trump on criminal justice reform. He often is honest about Trump, and gives Trump credit for some achievements. We need to stand up for voices like Van Jones if we are to ever get an honest dialogue on politics back. He's under extreme pressure by the CNN bosses to tow the line, so keep that in mind.

Van Jones is a Semi-Racist. He called Trumps Win on Air as Whitelash!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MA9aSvHzEIU

Jeffrey Lord was pretty STUNNED when Van Jones said that. For that alone Van Jones should be booted from any Cable News Outlet - Period!

Van Jones is one of the few saving graces of cable news.

No, he is a Dickhead!

Fox Anchors are much better these Days.

[redjohn]

I'm very open-minded. Trying to not set expectations too high; I hope Bernie wins and does well, but we shall see soon enough. Come on, NH!

[atheist4thecause]

MSNBC exit poll has Warren's positions 43% too liberal 44% just right.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Can the Van Jones discussion move to another thread, please?

[n1240]

NYTimes Needle is up

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/11/us/elections/results-new-hampshire-live-forecast.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive&region=Navigation

[Lourdes]

https://twitter.com/The10thMTN/status/1227368015219523585

[YE]

Can the Van Jones discussion move to another thread, please?

I'll just hide relevant posts since I don't think it was derailed on purpose just gradually over time.

[atheist4thecause]

All I'm going to say is that this feels a lot like Iowa, where Amy won some visible early contests so she controlled the early narrative. However, once the data eventually arrived, she did not live up to the hype. I bring this up because Amy consistently has good debates but consistently can't translate them into votes, a problem for her campaign.

Klobuchar's debates have always been steady, but they never had a moment. She had a moment if not multiple last debate. That was a special performance, and we have lots of people in NH saying they chose her because of the debate, lots of people saying the debate mattered in general, lots of people saying their mind was made up late. All of this speaks to Klobuchar likely having a strong day. Even if she gets 3rd, that will be quite good given that in Iowa she was happy to be a strong 5th.

[redjohn]

NH has the ability to put an end to Pete's remarkably empty campaign. If Pete wins or comes close we're going to have to suffer through months more of his stump speeches... oh god what a horrible scenario

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

All I'm going to say is that this feels a lot like Iowa, where Amy won some visible early contests so she controlled the early narrative. However, once the data eventually arrived, she did not live up to the hype. I bring this up because Amy consistently has good debates but consistently can't translate them into votes, a problem for her campaign.

“Consistently”? There has only been one set of votes.

[atheist4thecause]

48% decided in the last few days
25% 2016
38% 2008

48% say debate is important factor
(according to CNN)

[Oryxslayer]

All I'm going to say is that this feels a lot like Iowa, where Amy won some visible early contests so she controlled the early narrative. However, once the data eventually arrived, she did not live up to the hype. I bring this up because Amy consistently has good debates but consistently can't translate them into votes, a problem for her campaign.

“Consistently”? There has only been one set of votes.

Polls are things. Almost always she was near the top of 2019 debate performances, but there never was a polling bump.

[2016]

NH has the ability to put an end to Pete's remarkably empty campaign. If Pete wins or comes close we're going to have to suffer through months more of his stump speeches... oh god what a horrible scenario

I got a gut feel that it will put at least a Semi-End to the Biden Campaign cuz I really think he could go down to fifth.

[Gracile]

NH has the ability to put an end to Pete's remarkably empty campaign. If Pete wins or comes close we're going to have to suffer through months more of his stump speeches... oh god what a horrible scenario

He'll get crushed in NV and especially SC, so his campaign will probably be over sooner rather than later.

[atheist4thecause]

Watching FOX NEWS now:

They have Martha MacCallum, Bret Baier, Brit Hume and Chris Wallace. Decent people.

I'm so relieved that they don't have hyperventilating Megyn Kelly anymore.

Wallace says if Biden finishes 5th he's done. I agree with him.

Yeah I just couldn't do CNN again.  They were constantly ruining my buzz last week.  No doubt they have the best graphics, but I just can't get past their constant state of panic.  

I absolutely can't stand Powers, Sellers, Van Jones and Granholm.

CNN has good people in Borger, Nia Henderson, Smerconish and Axelrod. They just need to put them in more often.

How come you can't stand Van Jones? He's one of the key voices of our time. He can reach Progressive minds, but he also showed a willingness to work with President Trump on criminal justice reform. He often is honest about Trump, and gives Trump credit for some achievements. We need to stand up for voices like Van Jones if we are to ever get an honest dialogue on politics back. He's under extreme pressure by the CNN bosses to tow the line, so keep that in mind.

Van Jones is a Semi-Racist. He called Trumps Win on Air as Whitelash!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MA9aSvHzEIU

Jeffrey Lord was pretty STUNNED when Van Jones said that. For that alone Van Jones should be booted from any Cable News Outlet - Period!

I was upset about that as well, but he has really come around, and he's not wrong that White voters made their mark on that election. I just wish he had chosen to describe it differently. I think if you look at how he has acted lately, you will see that he is one of the fairest voices among Democrats.

[Tintrlvr]

All I'm going to say is that this feels a lot like Iowa, where Amy won some visible early contests so she controlled the early narrative. However, once the data eventually arrived, she did not live up to the hype. I bring this up because Amy consistently has good debates but consistently can't translate them into votes, a problem for her campaign.

“Consistently”? There has only been one set of votes.

Well, she has also never really managed to have debates move the polling needle much, and, while polls aren't votes, they are pretty close. Even the NH debate didn't move the needle that much in her favor (compare, e.g., how much the polls swung for Kamala Harris after the first debate).

But obviously this remains to be seen whether it will be true in NH. I wouldn't be shocked if she came in second.

[Hollywood]

NH has the ability to put an end to Pete's remarkably empty campaign. If Pete wins or comes close we're going to have to suffer through months more of his stump speeches... oh god what a horrible scenario

I got a gut feel that it will put at least a Semi-End to the Biden Campaign cuz I really think he could go down to fifth.

Yeah I'm starting to think he's at 7%. 

[The Free North]

Half the electorate deciding in the past few days is incredible and shows how much anxiety exists on the Dem side right now.


Doesn't bode well for Joe.

[Badger]

All I'm going to say is that this feels a lot like Iowa, where Amy won some visible early contests so she controlled the early narrative. However, once the data eventually arrived, she did not live up to the hype. I bring this up because Amy consistently has good debates but consistently can't translate them into votes, a problem for her campaign.

“Consistently”? There has only been one set of votes.

Well, In fairness, Iowa was so dragged out it felt like repeated elections Groundhog Day Style

[Dorko Julio]

Watching FOX NEWS now:

They have Martha MacCallum, Bret Baier, Brit Hume and Chris Wallace. Decent people.

I'm so relieved that they don't have hyperventilating Megyn Kelly anymore.

Wallace says if Biden finishes 5th he's done. I agree with him.

Yeah, I usually watch Fox or Fox Business for election coverage. Neil Cavuto does a good job and his panels are funny as heck sometimes.

Wallace has it right. SC or no SC, if Biden has another pathetic finish his chances are toast.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Biden does flame out, it's going to remind me a lot of another candidate who seemed the obvious front-runner beforehand, but never took off: Rudy Giuliani in 2008.

(And I supported both of them.  Was it something I said?)