New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

We had only 2% of the Iowa Caucus results at this time. Hehehe

[Santander]

It looks like we're beating 2008 turnout! ~10% to go, and we're just 10,000 shy.

Grain of salt to be added that there is no competitive primary on the GOP side, so R-leaning independents may have picked up a D ballot.

[Badger]

OSR unironically thinks that Obama probably wishes he had lost in 2012 to save the country from Trump. He’s an unwitting troll not worth engaging.

Obviously Obama would have preferred two terms of Romney who probably was the most moderate nominee since 1976 vs a second term where he barely got anything done then(and the things he did where reversed by Trump) and then followed up by Trump

That is........QUITE the take.

[Beet]

Impressive turnout tonight, in contrast to Iowa. It's almost as if the voters could smell the caucuses being *#!@ from earlier in the day.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Shoutouts to my state for actually running competent elections.

Now it's time to get our voter-suppressing POS Secretary of State out.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Election twitter (credibility is debatable) is saying around 60K ballots left to count. If so, Dems will easily beat 2008 turnout.

[Badger]

Has any presidential candidate ever won any primary with less than 26% of the vote.  I found a couple examples of candidates winning with 27%, but no one lower than Sanders tonight as far as I can tell. (Santorum won the Iowa caucus with ~24%.)

Going through the primaries now, but here's the 1976 Massachusetts Democratic primary (per Wikipedia)


Scoop Jackson     22.34
Morris Udall         17.73
George Wallace    16.73
Jimmy Carter       13.86
Fred Harris            7.57
Sargent Shriver     7.24
Birch Bayh            4.75
Ellen McCormack   3.50
Milton Shapp         2.95
Uncommitted        1.33
Lloyd Bentsen       0.05

Nice find!  I'd never heard of Ellen McCormack before.  Apparently she was a housewife who ran as an anti-abortion activist.

Fun fact. George Wallace won the city of Boston. (Busing, natch)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

My way-off predictions

Sanders       31%   (-5)
Buttigieg      25%   (-0.5)
Warren        14%   (-5)
Klobuchar    14%   (+6)
Biden          12%   (-4)
Others          4%   (+8)

At least I got Pete's numbers right!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since QUINNIPIAC has been spot on correct, Trump is 10 points behind Bernie.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Impressive turnout tonight, in contrast to Iowa. It's almost as if the voters could smell the caucuses being *#!@ from earlier in the day.

It is almost as if Iowa is trending strongly GOP and New Hampshire is not.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's crazy to think that Bernie's campaign would've probably been finished after tonight if Klobuchar didn't go after Pete in the debate. Still an underwhelming victory for him, but he's still in the game.

[Grassroots]

Bernie - 9 Delegates
Butt - 9 Delegates
Klobuchar - 6 Delegates

Biden - 0 Delegates

Buttigieg still narrowly leads Sanders with delegates overall, thanks to edging him out in Iowa. Of course, that will change with Nevada and South Carolina. But Joe Biden's campaign is on life support at this point. His third and last presidential bid, just like his two previous ones in 1988 and 2008, is collapsing into flames.

Biden is fine. All he has to do is get top 3 in NV and win in SC.

[Beet]

It's crazy to think that Bernie's campaign would've probably been finished after tonight if Klobuchar didn't go after Pete in the debate. Still an underwhelming victory for him, but he's still in the game.

Yeah, he's been the frontrunner for a month now, and co-frontrunner for a few months. I don't understand why they never attack him. They really have to do it if any of them actually wants to win the nomination.

[slothdem]

OSR unironically thinks that Obama probably wishes he had lost in 2012 to save the country from Trump. He’s an unwitting troll not worth engaging.

Obviously Obama would have preferred two terms of Romney who probably was the most moderate nominee since 1976 vs a second term where he barely got anything done then(and the things he did where reversed by Trump) and then followed up by Trump

That is........QUITE the take.

In a thread that contains (what seems like) hundreds of posts by SN2903, this one is BY FAR the most delusional.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Bernie - 9 Delegates
Butt - 9 Delegates
Klobuchar - 6 Delegates

Biden - 0 Delegates

Buttigieg still narrowly leads Sanders with delegates overall, thanks to edging him out in Iowa. Of course, that will change with Nevada and South Carolina. But Joe Biden's campaign is on life support at this point. His third and last presidential bid, just like his two previous ones in 1988 and 2008, is collapsing into flames.

Biden is fine. All he has to do is get top 3 in NV and win in SC.

It's probably easier to say all he needs to do is win SC. That's been this forum's basic narrative of the February primaries anyway

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So if we divide the current vote into factions...

Joe + Pete + Amy (Moderates): 53%

Bernie + Warren (Progressives): 35%

If it wasn't for the split in the moderate vote, Bernie wouldn't even be competitive.

[Annatar]

If turnout goes above 314,717 than the dems will have gotten a higher percentage of the electorate to vote for them than they did in 2008, let's see whether that occurs.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1227446858747981824

As for the results, I have to say I'm disappointed by Bernie's showing, I thought he would be more around 30%, he seems to have lost a lot of his support among older working class voters from 2016, the kind of coalition that made him dangerous to Trump in 2016. He's more like Corbyn now, his coalition seems to be very college town focused, high education and young.

[Intell]

So if we divide the current vote into factions...

Joe + Pete + Amy (Moderates): 53%

Bernie + Warren (Progressives): 35%

If it wasn't for the split in the moderate vote, Bernie wouldn't even be competitive.

Politics is never that simple, a lot of those Klobuchar second preferences are for Warren. Furthermore a lot of the younger Buttigeg supporters are not going to go to Biden or Amy and would go to Yang.

[Hydera]

[Horatii]

My NH prediction:

Buttigieg: 26 (-2)
Sanders: 25 (+1)
Klobuchar: 17 (+2)
Warren: 15 (-6)
Biden: 11 (-3)

Was expecting Warren to be much better and Biden not to do THAT horrifically.

[Tintrlvr]

Bernie - 9 Delegates
Butt - 9 Delegates
Klobuchar - 6 Delegates

Biden - 0 Delegates

Buttigieg still narrowly leads Sanders with delegates overall, thanks to edging him out in Iowa. Of course, that will change with Nevada and South Carolina. But Joe Biden's campaign is on life support at this point. His third and last presidential bid, just like his two previous ones in 1988 and 2008, is collapsing into flames.

Biden is fine. All he has to do is get top 3 in NV and win in SC.

Biden would be lucky to finish 4th in Nevada at this point, I think, and even 6th is not out of the question.

[Storr]

Vague tweet from withdrawing candidate hinting about the future cliché:
https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1227449953389293570?s=20

[Calthrina950]

Bernie - 9 Delegates
Butt - 9 Delegates
Klobuchar - 6 Delegates

Biden - 0 Delegates

Buttigieg still narrowly leads Sanders with delegates overall, thanks to edging him out in Iowa. Of course, that will change with Nevada and South Carolina. But Joe Biden's campaign is on life support at this point. His third and last presidential bid, just like his two previous ones in 1988 and 2008, is collapsing into flames.

Biden is fine. All he has to do is get top 3 in NV and win in SC.

I'm not so sure about this. Bill Clinton in 1992 was the last Democratic candidate to win the party's nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire. And he came in second in New Hampshire (whereas Biden came in fifth) and won South Carolina by a decisive margin, much more decisive than what polls are currently indicating for Biden there, with Steyer's surge. And Biden is nowhere near as skilled a candidate as Clinton was.

[Tintrlvr]

Bernie - 9 Delegates
Butt - 9 Delegates
Klobuchar - 6 Delegates

Biden - 0 Delegates

Buttigieg still narrowly leads Sanders with delegates overall, thanks to edging him out in Iowa. Of course, that will change with Nevada and South Carolina. But Joe Biden's campaign is on life support at this point. His third and last presidential bid, just like his two previous ones in 1988 and 2008, is collapsing into flames.

Biden is fine. All he has to do is get top 3 in NV and win in SC.

I'm not so sure about this. Bill Clinton in 1992 was the last Democratic candidate to win the party's nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire. And he came in second in New Hampshire (whereas Biden came in fifth) and won South Carolina by a decisive margin, much more decisive than what polls are currently indicating for Biden there, with Steyer's surge. And Biden is nowhere near as skilled a candidate as Clinton was.

Also, neither Clinton nor any other candidate other than Tom Harkin contested Iowa in 1992 because it was Harkin's home state, so the result there went completely ignored by the media and was considered irrelevant. Obviously, that was not true of Iowa this time around.

[Gass3268]

DDHQ were off on they're early Hanover numbers, turnout was up ~25%.