Israel General Discussion: Annus Horribilis

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This government is going to fall by the end of June. Mark my words.

Where's the will for it though? I can't see any party who would gain:
- Likud are in power, and might very well lose a re-do
- The haredim can't realistically expect any better outcome than this government
- RZ can't expect any better jobs, authorities and offices than they have in this government

Who will break the government?

Either Ben Gvir skips to play the “they held my hands and I couldn’t deal with terror”, or they simply can’t pass a budget considering the insane amounts the Haredi and Ben Gvir demand with the rest of the budgetary commitments. Together with the growing protests and intensifying economic situation they will simply disintegrate trying to pass a budget.

Will do the closest a non-religious man can do to praying for this.

Just want to remind you all that if Michaeli was a not a sociopath egomaniac and ran with Meretz together the current government on 61-2 seats would have been in a dead lock now.

She's done.

More than that- Labor is done (and Meretz as well). At least, done running separately. hopefully done as parties generally.

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I'm sure that Israel will be better off going forward with no meaningful left presence at all, yeah

The zionist left, in its current form, has no room in politics. It has no agenda to promote to its voters on any issue, from the Conflict to the economy.

Yes, they have to go to make room for new organizations.

Disclaimer: I have spent most of the last three decades as a Meretz activist. They're done.

Also worth noting that there will always be left wing voters (and zionist left wing voters specifically). Their existence is not depending on the institutions of the parties that represent them. The parties and their MKs won't simply disappear and I don't want them to, but I do want them to transform into something new, not beholden to the old institutions.

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https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-733895

So Ben-Gvir removed the police commander of Tel Aviv and is claiming that it was totally pre-planned.

This police commander got attacked by Ben Gvir for not oppressing the protestors hard enough, of course. He wanted to see blood.
Aaand the attorney general now froze this decision, saying it might be illegal or improper. Constitutional crisis getting closer and closer.

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https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-733895

So Ben-Gvir removed the police commander of Tel Aviv and is claiming that it was totally pre-planned.

This police commander got attacked by Ben Gvir for not oppressing the protestors hard enough, of course. He wanted to see blood.
Aaand the attorney general now froze this decision, saying it might be illegal or improper. Constitutional crisis getting closer and closer.

According to Haaretz, police chief Shabtai told the Attorney General that Ben Gvir forced his hand on the decision. If true, this should be a gigantic scandal.

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Is this level of political intervention normal for an Israeli president?

It's not exactly regular, but in these unprecedented times it doesn't seem particularly surprising.

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Isn't the number of protesters that voted for any of the government parties about zero?

There's probably some that voted Likud. But it doesn't matter - nearly half the country thinks this "reform" is the end of democracy, and it includes refusing to serve in the IDF's reserve, not investing money in the country, possibly leaving. This protest movement is unprecedented in Israel's history. The government has no legitimacy to pass this.

Looks like the court nullification bill has been shelved for the time being. They're still moving ahead with some limited bills to limit the court's power to disqualify corrupt officials and the like.

Not really. The bill they're moving ahead with is the most important one that will end the separation of branches by giving the coalition practical control of judicial appointments, and no one said anything about shelving the rest. Nothing dramatic happened, idk where you got the news that the government retreated from this

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Isn't the number of protesters that voted for any of the government parties about zero?

There's probably some that voted Likud. But it doesn't matter - nearly half the country thinks this "reform" is the end of democracy, and it includes refusing to serve in the IDF's reserve, not investing money in the country, possibly leaving. This protest movement is unprecedented in Israel's history. The government has no legitimacy to pass this.

Looks like the court nullification bill has been shelved for the time being. They're still moving ahead with some limited bills to limit the court's power to disqualify corrupt officials and the like.

Not really. The bill they're moving ahead with is the most important one that will end the separation of branches by giving the coalition practical control of judicial appointments, and no one said anything about shelving the rest. Nothing dramatic happened, idk where you got the news that the government retreated from this

The party in power usually has the whip hand in judicial appointments, no? The issue is whether the appointments occur in the ordinary course of vacancies, or you have a court expansion or packing scheme (which I vehemently oppose in the US), it seems to me. I appreciate Israel has it's court at present very insulated, but moving more towards the US model would be hard to characterize as abandoning the rule of law per se.

I did look up how the UK does it, and it was incredibly complicated, so I don't think very replicable.

In Israel there's a committee made up of 2 MKs, 2 Ministers, 3 judges and 2 bar association representatives. You need 7 votes to appoint judges, so both the coalition and judges have a veto.

It's certainly fair to make some changes, but the current system is fairly balanced. The new government legislation would change it to give the coalition an absolute majority (with some quirks). This ends the separation of branches. It's not comparable to the US system because in the US there's a strong separation between the legislative and executive branches.

Another issue is that this legislation will also let the coalition decide which judge becomes chief justice (rather than seniority). It's terrible on its own because it means Supreme Court judges will need to be liked by the government. In the US, once a judge is appointed they don't need to care about the government or congress.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Isn't the number of protesters that voted for any of the government parties about zero?

There's probably some that voted Likud. But it doesn't matter - nearly half the country thinks this "reform" is the end of democracy, and it includes refusing to serve in the IDF's reserve, not investing money in the country, possibly leaving. This protest movement is unprecedented in Israel's history. The government has no legitimacy to pass this.

Looks like the court nullification bill has been shelved for the time being. They're still moving ahead with some limited bills to limit the court's power to disqualify corrupt officials and the like.

Not really. The bill they're moving ahead with is the most important one that will end the separation of branches by giving the coalition practical control of judicial appointments, and no one said anything about shelving the rest. Nothing dramatic happened, idk where you got the news that the government retreated from this

The party in power usually has the whip hand in judicial appointments, no? The issue is whether the appointments occur in the ordinary course of vacancies, or you have a court expansion or packing scheme (which I vehemently oppose in the US), it seems to me. I appreciate Israel has it's court at present very insulated, but moving more towards the US model would be hard to characterize as abandoning the rule of law per se.

I did look up how the UK does it, and it was incredibly complicated, so I don't think very replicable.

In Israel there's a committee made up of 2 MKs, 2 Ministers, 3 judges and 2 bar association representatives. You need 7 votes to appoint judges, so both the coalition and judges have a veto.

It's certainly fair to make some changes, but the current system is fairly balanced. The new government legislation would change it to give the coalition an absolute majority (with some quirks). This ends the separation of branches. It's not comparable to the US system because in the US there's a strong separation between the legislative and executive branches.

Another issue is that this legislation will also let the coalition decide which judge becomes chief justice (rather than seniority). It's terrible on its own because it means Supreme Court judges will need to be liked by the government. In the US, once a judge is appointed they don't need to care about the government or congress.

The chief justice in the US does not have much more power than the rest (just the power to assign cases if in the majority). Does the chief justice in Israel have so much more power than the rest on the bench that it is worth whoring for?

You mention the lack of separation of powers. Can parliament overturn a judicial decision on a vote? Does Israel have a Constitution that you need a supra majority to change?

I'm not an expert, but the chief justice in Israel does have a seat in the judge appointment committee (under the "reform" too), and importantly, they get to assign judges to cases where a full composition isn't needed.

Israel doesn't have a constitution. There are "basic laws" that don't require a supermajority to legislate or change, and they are meant to serve as a quasi constitution. Another component of the "reform" is to let the coalition overturn a judicial decision.

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Sarah Netanyahu in a statement: calling for everyone to calm down and reach a compromise.
Netanyahu will give a special statement in 2 hours.
Defense Minister Galant calling to halt the legislation.
Something is brewing ☕ but I'm not sure what exactly

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Sarah Netanyahu in a statement: calling for everyone to calm down and reach a compromise.
Netanyahu will give a special statement in 2 hours.
Defense Minister Galant calling to halt the legislation.
Something is brewing ☕ but I'm not sure what exactly

Netanyahu summoned Galant, who's apparently gathering a group of MKs to support him, for a meeting - I'm increasingly thinking Galant is acting alone.

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Bibi’s not backing down here. Levine has him in the groin

War it is. What do you think about the chances the SC overturns the judiciary committee law? My lawyer friend seems to think the chances are low.

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Netanyahu just fired Defense Minister Gallant.
Crazy, insane, psycho, lots of words to describe this move

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Pretty sure no head of government anywhere would accept one of his ministers calling into question a key government policy publicly.

Important context is that this is the defense minister warning about the security consequences of advancing the legislation. He's merely conveying what high command is telling him. The PM refused to convene the cabinet to hear them out, so Gallant had to talk.

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More news from this morning:
- Histadrut chairman and big business expected to announce a strike *together* until the legislation is halted.
- Netanyahu expected to halt the legislation, unclear if full stop or freezing.
- RZ says government "can't halt the legislation".

Expecting RZ to be replaced by Gantz in the government personally.

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General strike starting from now. Big labor and big capital cooperating.

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It's over. Either Bibi forfeits or he'll be ousted by force.

My expectation is Gantz replacing RZ in the coalition. You think I'm too pessimistic?

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Looking at the reform I don’t get what the massive opposition is given that it would still result in less say by politicians on who gets to be on the judicial branch than here in the US where every judicial appointment is made by the president and then has to be approved by the senate .

Mmmm. like. you. know. maybe. the. US. legal. system. is. like. really. really. bad?

It's a slippery slope to that abysmal abomination you yanks call a justice system, we're not willing to accept even a minor politicization of the judicial branch.

How do you put checks on the judicial system though if judges and lawyers can effectively have the most say who fills vacancies?

You guys unlike us dont even have a written constitution so that gives the Supreme Court more power as at least here in the US , the Supreme Court has to make their rulings on the basis of a written constitution while in Israel that does not seem to be the case which effectively can make your Supreme Court a Super Legislature.
 
Checks and Balances is one of the best ways to defend liberty and yes we do that better than any nation on earth despite the hate we and our system seem to get.

Every country - except Poland - has some checks and balances on government appointing judges. The US system is terrible, but even there you have a separate congress and President. Other countries have a tradition of appointing according to recommendations of a professional committee. Israel's parliamentary system means the coalition controls the government. If you give the coalition full control of appointing even 1 Supreme Court judge per term, the supreme court ceases to have independence. Under the current reform there will be one (1) branch - the coalition.

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Otzma agree to postpone the legislation in exchange for Ben Gvir getting a private militia.

 that. I’m heading out to protest.

I went to protest today but left too early, before Bibi's announcement That's what happens when you don't have any major protests in walkable distance I guess.

But this isn't close to over - I'll be going whendever I can until the legislation is stopped and Otzma's militia is cancelled

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Good of Netanyahu to not back down. He may lose now, but it is better to lose with conviction and courage than to surrender without taking a stand.

Nice to see it confirmed that the modern GOP is actually hostile to democracy.

This proposal is by definition making the judicial process more democratic. Now you can argue that’s a bad thing due to a nature of what a judiciary deals with but please stop with these nonsense talking points .

At its core democracy means that government belongs (and is responsible to) the public as a body, not to some sub-set thereof (whether that sub-set is one king, many oligarchs, or one political party is beside the point),

What Netanyahu is very obviously doing here - allowing simple majority to over-ride the court, and his government to potentially stack the court - is destructive to rule of law, and anti-democratic (much as when Republicans do similar things to stack courts and erode rule of law in the US). That's why people are protesting - because its destructive and obvious.

This is incoherent babble from a hardcore hack. Allowing the legislature to control the court is normal within the Westminster system and is a measure that most Democrats support. If Israel had a liberal government and a right-wing court chosen by a group of conservatives, all of you would support this. Your objection is that it reduces the power of the political faction you like. All of this moaning on about principles is utter nonsense.

If you don't want to understand the context behind why hundreds of thousands are out protesting this legislation, kindly just shut the hell up. We're tired and have better things to do than explaining this to foreigners who don't want to understand.

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Is Gantz trying to target Likud voters or trying to position himself as a sort of nondescript head of the civil society movement?

Also are Labor and Meretz considering a reformation of the Israeli left? What are their relations right now?

Gantz is trying to target "soft" Likud voters by positioning himself as  nondescript civil society leader who leans center right.

Labor and Meretz - I haven't heard anything concrete, but it's pretty clear neither will run alone again. The base won't let them.

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Is Gantz trying to target Likud voters or trying to position himself as a sort of nondescript head of the civil society movement?

Also are Labor and Meretz considering a reformation of the Israeli left? What are their relations right now?

Gantz is trying to target "soft" Likud voters by positioning himself as  nondescript civil society leader who leans center right.

Given the inverted commas, do you still think such a thing as a soft Likud voter, who disagrees with Netenyahu and the Kahanists but wants a right-wing government, exists? Or are most Likud voters by now fully on board whichever direction their leader goes?

I do think a substantial number of Likud voters believe this, but in the end of the day I think that even if they say they won't right now, they'll stick with Netanyahu in the end. Their priorities won't let them vote for the center left.

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To our Israeli posters, what is the sentiment on the ground today? Are people starting to go back to their everyday lives or is the mobilization continuing? How are people reacting to Ben Gvir's planned militia? Is it seen as a serious threat?

Now, this is going to be purely how I feel and interpret it, I could easily be wrong. The protestors are tired, and many of them are using this moment to rest. The feel yesterday was like a hangover. The hardcore protestors will continue until the legislation is fully scrapped, but they aren't that many numerically. There aren't going to be any huge protests or road blockages for now. However, people don't believe Netanyahu, and if he still tries to pass these laws in May the big protests will return. The phrase "tactical halt" is in many people's minds.

Many view Ben Gvir's militia as a big threat and aren't willing to let it happen. However they also know Bibi's promises are flimsy, and that it'll take a legislative process to establish the yellow shirts. They're waiting.

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The government is expected to agree on a 1.5% budget cut for all government ministries (including Defense, Education and Health) in order to increase Ben Gvir's budget for establishing his personal militia.

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The abysmal polling sent Ben Gvir and Otzma on a tantrum. They stopped voting with the coalition until the government adopts "a real right wing policy to Gaza". Likud threatened to fire Ben Gvir, Ben Gvir told them to fire him if they want.

Now I don't think either side really wants it atm, but this sort of things can spiral out of control rapidly

And now we have an operation in Gaza. Palestinian children will die, possibly some Israeli children too, and the Ben Gvir blood demand will be sated for now.

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No, they aren't *the same*.

On the other hand, there are surely parallels.

There are parallels between any two social categories. What matters is the degree of relevance and essence. The Haredi are far more like the Amish than they are like the Taliban. If anyone in Israel is similar in any meaningful way to the Taliban it’s the Hardal or the northern section of the Islamic movement.

I think the haredim are pretty unique in a global perspective. I'm not sure there is any other group with an a lifestyle that directly contradicts any modern notion of a productive society and economy, while also demanding massive aid from the government because they believe their lifestyle benefits everyone.

The extreme settlers are definitely the closest parallel to "Jewish Taliban", and they also get a ton of funding for their damaging actions from this government