2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Mike88]

Around 50,000 new votes from Alaska were just dumped:

Trump 20,240
Biden 27,251

The totals from the state now are:

139,264 57.7% Trump
  91,497 38.9% Biden

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/IvankaTrump/status/1326578199661322241?s=20

I thought the AP/Media didn't decide who wins a state? I guess I was wrong...

Surprised there's no publicity to some Alaskan food product... Weird.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326664297930321921

So, in 2.5 hours, guys.

[Mike88]

Good evening,
there are count update scheduled this evening?

Maricopa is expected to update their count in an 1 hour or so.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/rtmradio/status/1326660188968022016

I met him at Will Rogers Airport last year. He’s not bad.

Got to love how Oklahoma named their airport after a guy who died in a plane crash.

Kind of like how one of Australia's prime minister has died in office after drowning during a swim in the ocean, and then memorialized his name by naming a pool center after him

There's a lot of examples of that kind of name calling. Porto airport, for example, is named after Francisco Sá Carneiro, a PM that died in plane crash surrounded in conspiracy theories. I know many people, who liked him a lot, who don't like to call the airport by his name as it's a lack of taste.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/1326705034382479366

Also, tonight, do Hillary' emails prove voter fraud? Find out.

[Mike88]

I believe Allegheny county released more votes. Biden's lead now at 53,219.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326725575206076416

[Mike88]

When will we know the first results from the mail ballots in NY? I know they are slow to count.

[Mike88]

It appears that OH and MS have also just given up on counting their mail in ballots....

It seems that Ohio accepts ballots until tomorrow, November 13th, maybe by then more votes will start to be announced. In Mississippi, the deadline for absentee ballots was last Tuesday, so they may be counting them.

[Mike88]

More vote out of Allegheny, Biden's lead 54K now statewide.

Joe Biden 3,390,729
Donald Trump 3,336,751

About ~8K provisionals out of Allegheny broke 55-45 for Biden. ~4K provisionals from Delaware Co broke 63-36.

That's quite high for Trump, isn't it?

[Mike88]

Don't know from where, maybe Pima, I don't know, but more votes from Arizona were dumped:

Biden +2,675
Trump + 2,920

Biden's lead now at 11,390.

[Mike88]

Don't know from where, maybe Pima, I don't know, but more votes from Arizona were dumped:

Biden +2,675
Trump + 2,920

Biden's lead now at 11,390.

Only 16,707 ballots remain to be counted, it seems. Not all will be counted probably, which means it's now mathematically impossible for Trump to surpass Biden.

[Mike88]

lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1326989666055299074?s=20

This plan seems like it could work imo.

No, it won’t. Did you read anything above your post?

You can easily get 37 electors to switch in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania at least based on how I have interpreted their state statutes.

Until December 14th, a lot of water will pass under the bridge.

[Mike88]

lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1326989666055299074?s=20

This plan seems like it could work imo.

No, it won’t. Did you read anything above your post?

You can easily get 37 electors to switch in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania at least based on how I have interpreted their state statutes.

Until December 14th, a lot of water will pass under the bridge.

Meaning, a lot can happen: the election challenges could collapse completely and Trump could even give up, although not necessarily conceding.

[Mike88]

lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1326989666055299074?s=20

This plan seems like it could work imo.

No, it won’t. Did you read anything above your post?

You can easily get 37 electors to switch in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania at least based on how I have interpreted their state statutes.

It will be the Democratic slates of electors that will be casting the votes and those slates are full of elected officials, party officials and others who are not going to flip. It's not going to happen.

A 20 million dollar bribe would probably get most of them to flip. It would cost the Trump campaign about 740 million to get all 37 electors to flip, which seems doable due to their strong fundraising at the moment. Money is definitely greater than party loyalty to many people as well.

That's illegal!!!

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1327037659491942400

It will never end...

[Mike88]

Pima County has cleared out their provisionals and signature cures, leaving them with 3639 votes left to be tabulated.  Also, in the last couple of updates I was reading the number of votes Trump stood to gain (using the very favorable assumptions) from the wrong row.  It's actually somewhat higher, so here's a new *correct* update:


Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification (deadline has past in most counties): 2022
Provisional ballots: 8514
Ballots ready for tabulation: 7006

Total: 17542

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 14828 of the remaining ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 2236 from them.  He currently trails by 11390, so would finish behind by 9154.

Of the estimated remaining 17.5K ballots, 3639 are in Pima County (all awaiting tabulation, i.e. will definitely count) and 6700 are in Maricopa (about half provisionals/cures).  Based on present trends (without the Trump-friendly assumptions) I'm estimating the final margin will be between 10K and 12K for Biden.  Trump has no chance to win; the only interesting question remaining is whether Arizona will end up closer than Georgia, which looks quite likely at this point.

It seems that 1,134 ballots from Cochise were dumped:

Biden +373
Trump +729

There will be another update on the remaining ballots to count, I assume.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/Eggymceggerson3/status/1327063771290931203?s=20

Indeed. The last batch of votes went like this:

Biden +15,690
Trump +8,761

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/Eggymceggerson3/status/1327063771290931203?s=20

Indeed. The last batch of votes went like this:

Biden +15,690
Trump +8,761

Are there a lot of Biden/Sullivan voters or no?

Doesn't seem likely, IMO. However, many Alaskan Independence voters in the Senate election seemed to have voted in Biden.

[Mike88]

ABC and CBS also projected Georgia for Biden and NC for Trump.

[Mike88]

For now, AP, FOX and NYT haven't called neither Georgia or NC.

NYT has just called it.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/stevennelson10/status/1327339133623296001

I feel like the final two months of the Trump administration regime could make the 1973 Saturday Night Massacre look like peanuts.

I think it will more be like a lame Celebrity Apprentice episode where no one sells enough cookies and all are fired.

[Mike88]

Is there any word on when OH is going to count the rest of its ballots? We're past the period of them even accepting late mail ins.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

The first results on election night (absentee ballots) will probably skew Democratic. Then, we’ll probably see a red shift as Republican-leaning Election Day votes are counted. Finally, the last vote dump on Nov. 14-18 (more absentee ballots) could benefit Democrats.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327715767916392449

Another meltdown.