Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

How did that work out!? Wow!

Quite well, i believe. The political dynamics in Loures are very different from rest of the country. Loures is a very leftwing municipality and the local political fights are normally between the PS and CDU so the PSD, which gathers around 16% of the vote, can act as the kingmaker.

[Mike88]

March is shaping to be another hot month in politics:

The Caixagate continues with the proceedings for the new committee approved. The Left made a "U turn" and decided to approve the release of the emails between Mr Centeno and Mr Domingues, decision the PSD/CDS hailed. But this good mood only lasted a few minutes, because PS/BE/CDU stated that those emails can only be seen and not used in the works of the committee. The PSD is already accusing the PS of making fun of Parliament.

The offshoregate continues also in the news, although it has faded a bit. Now the focus is not if there is any money to be taxed, the Treasury has until 2024 to tax any money, but rather where did the money came from, and, according to reports, more than half of the 10 billions came from the former Banco Espirito Santo (BES).

Plus, the words of Teodora Cardoso, president of the Public Finances council, about the deficit are creating harsh reactions from the Left. Ms Cardoso said that to a "certain extent, there was a miracle" in the deficit reduction in 2016, citting temporary and unsustainable measures. These words were received very badly particularly in the PCP, where MP Miguel Tiago said that the miracle is that Ms. Cardoso still has a job.

In terms of policies, the PSD wants to create a "black list" of companies that discriminate against women on the basis of wage pay.

And, the new statute of animals was published today. As of May 1st, animals will stop being labeled as things and will be labeled as living beings with sensibility. There will also be penalties for who kills or mugs animals.

[Mike88]

Fwiw "mug" as a verb in English normally means to rob someone in public. So you may want a different verb, like 'maim', unless in Portugal all dogs are sporting rolexes and iPhones.

I'm guessing it was an initiative of PAN? What are they like?

Yes, i meant to say something about harming animals but, out of curiosity, the new legislation states that who is found guilty of stealing an animal can be punished with a maximum of 3 years in jail.

This legislation was a joint draft law presented by the PS, PSD, PAN and BE and approved in parliament by unanimity.

PAN is a somewhat recent party but who was achieved very good election results since 2011. They were founded in 2009 and for a period of time they were led  by Paulo Borges, a know poet and Buddhist.



They defend animals rights, ecologism and pacifism. Plus they label themselves as center left and in between the PS and PSD. They are very similar with the Dutch Party for the Animals.

[Mike88]

One more reason March will be a hot month in politics:

Newspapers are reporting today that the attorney general, Joana Marques Vidal, wants an accusation for the former PM José Sócrates ready by March 17 and will not accept any more delays.

This case called "Operation Marquis", investigates the money schemes of the former socialist PM José Sócrates and in the last few weeks many high profile personalities in the finance and business industry in Portugal like Ricardo Salgado (former BES CEO), Zeinal Bava and Henrique Granadeiro (former leaders of Portugal Telecom), were accused of being involved in ruinous businesses with Mr Sócrates while he was Prime Minister.

An accusation will have, without a doubt, a major political impact in the whole system. This operation is already one of the biggest in the history of Portuguese justice, in the extent that the investigation already has more than 10 000 pages!!

[Mike88]

The PS approved motions in favour of the legalization of euthanasia, prostitution and soft drugs.



In the party's national committee, held yesterday in Oporto, the 251 members approved the party's official stand on euthanasia, they also approved the regulation of prostitution, which they note it's a question of dignity, and finally the legalization and production of cannabis in Portugal

On the other side, the PSD held yesterday a women's rally in Aveiro district to commemorate Women's day.



In the rally, Mr Passos Coelho criticized the Left parties response to Ms Cardoso, president of public finances commission, statements about the 2016 deficit and also accused the Left majority of lack of democratic culture.

[Mike88]

The "geringonça", PS/BE/CDU coalition, will be studied in Harvard University.

Ohh Harvard... What have you become?

[Mike88]

Conference about Trump, Brexit and Le Pen cancelled in the Social and Human Sciences University of Lisbon.

The conference "Populism or Democracy: Trump, Brexit and Le Pen" with keynote speaker Jaime Nogueira Pinto, husband of late CDS-PP MP Maria José Nogueira Pinto and leading historian about the Salazar dictatorship, was cancelled after Mr Nogueira Pinto suffered threats to his safety and his physical integrity.

The decision of cancelling the conference was taken also after the student's association of that university presented a motion labelling this conference as an event associated with "colonialist, racist and xenophobic arguments".

[Mike88]

The crazy local elections campaign has started...

The candidate for the PSD/CDS in Torres Vedras has put up campaign posters.... in Lisbon, 50 kms (31 miles) from Torres Vedras.

Mauro Claudino, the PSD/CDS candidate, explains the weird move because 1 in 4 people in Torres Vedras don't find jobs there and have to go every day to Lisbon. Torres Vedras has been ruled by the PS since 1976 and, curiously, the current mayor, Carlos Bernardes (PS), is being investigated for plagiarism in his doctoral thesis.

[Mike88]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa celebrated today his first year as President with visits to his former high school and by selling a homeless supporting magazine called Cais in the streets of Lisbon.

Here he is selling the magazines:


Pundits have also been analysing the first year of Marcelo's presidency. All of them agree that Marcelo is able to be much more closer to the people than his predecessor and that this is very well received by the electorate. Expresso newspaper even compares him to Princess Diana!!

While others point that too much exposure by the President may trivialize the presidency and his image.

Newspapers actually used this hyperactivity of the President for the headlines, like Jornal i:


Where isn't Marcelo? asks the newspaper.

[Mike88]

March poll from Eurosondagem. No big changes between the main parties. Nonetheless, big increase of PAN (+0.7%).



Popularity ratings:


Poll conducted between 1 and 8 March. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.08%.

Link: http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2017-03-10-Sondagem-PS-alarga-vantagem-sobre-PSD-Marcelo-em-alta

Seat projections:

103 (+17) PS
  81   ( -8) PSD
  18   ( -1) BE
  16   ( -1) CDU
  11   ( -7) CDS
    1   ( = ) PAN

If PSD/CDS ran in a coalition:

 98 (+12) PS
 98   ( -9) PSD/CDS
 17   ( -2) BE
 16   ( -1) CDU
   1   ( = ) PAN

[Mike88]

March poll from Aximage. Like Eurosondagem, no major changes.
(graphics made by me)



Conducted between 4 and 6 March. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.00%

Link: http://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/portugueses-perdem-confianca-em-costa-para-primeiro-ministro?ref=HP_Grupo1

[Mike88]

Expresso newspaper: Former Socialist PM José Sócrates will be indicted next Friday.

Expresso newspaper and SIC Notícias are reporting that the investigation about the former PM money schemes is near the end and that Mr. Sócrates will be interrogated by the police, for the last time, next monday.

According to the newspaper, the former PM will be accused of being corrupted by 23 million euros and that the attorney general has "solid evidences" of this and are wrapping up the indictment.

[Mike88]

Ok guys, update.

Every month, i will publish a poll of polls of the voting intentions of the Portuguese electorate to the Assembly of the Republic. I will post the results of the poll average from this page. They weight polls by how recent they are and by the number of people polled. It has also a seat calculator if anyone is interested.



Poll of Polls March 2017:


Some observations:

The PS is, at the moment, polling very strong and leading by double digits the PSD (11.7%). The PSD stands at 28% and adding the CDS at 6.5%, the conservative coalition stands at around 35%. They won 38.6% in 2015. Both BE and CDU are losing voters and MP's to PS while PAN continues to poll quite strongly for a 6th party.
Also if the PSD/CDS were still a coalition they would elect 93 MP's; the PS 105; BE 17; CDU 14 and PAN 1.

Enjoy!

[Mike88]

President of PS-Guarda threatens Health Minister if he doesn't put PS members in the board of the local hospital. LOOOOOL!!

The president of the PS Federation from the District of Guarda has threatened to withdraw his political trust in the Health minister, Adalberto Campos Fernandes, if he doesn't nominate "boys", or in other words, PS members to the board of the Hospital of Guarda. In an email sent to the minister, António Saraiva, president of the PS-Guarda, said he cannot agree with the format of the new board of the Hospital.

According to Observador newspaper, the minister nominated a women who is not a member of the PS. In the email, he also says it's unfair that the board still has people nominated by the PSD. The PS-Guarda is very uncomfortable with this, with members labelling this as ridiculous and some members of the party are asking for the head Mr. António Saraiva.

You can't make this stuff up....

[Mike88]

Update on the political scene:

The imminent indictment of former PM José Sócrates was, once again, delayed. This time, investigators asked the attorney general another two months to complete the accusation against the former PM. The previous deadline imposed by the AG was tomorrow, March 17.

On the local elections, the deadline to present candidacies is just a few weeks ahead and parties are rushing to name the final candidates. The PSD will announce in the next few days the candidate for Lisbon. Pedro Passos Coelho said, today, he has a name and it is a "good choice". Media is saying the name chosen is Teresa Leal Coelho, MP close to Mr Passos Coelho and nº2 in the PSD list in the 2013 local elections in Lisbon.



Also, Assusnção Cristas, CDS leader, is in a bad spot in the last few days after a very controversial interview she gave to Público newspaper. In the interview Ms. Cristas said he approved the BES bank resolution without reading it and that the banking system wasn't too much discussed in cabinet during Mr. Passos Coelho government. Of course these statements raise eyebrows and there's some discomfort in the CDS and PSD and some shock in the PS/BE/CDU.

Finally, former President Jorge Sampaio is going to present his memoirs in the coming days and in the book he talks about one of his most controversial decisions as President, the 2004 dissolution of Parliament. Mr Sampaio says he isn't sorry for nominating Mr Santana Lopes as PM and for exonerating him 6 months later and that he would do that all over again. But says, he became fed up with Santana Lopes for putting the country at adrift.

Santana Lopes didn't wait too much to respond and has challenge the former President for a debate and stated that he has doubts of the former President's morals and scruples.
 

[Mike88]

Why did Passos Coelho remain party leader after losing the 2015 elections? PM's who lose their reelection bid usually withdraw from politics.

He didn't lose the 2015 election. He was the leader of the most voted political force and the PSD actually won more MP's than the PS (89 to 86). No one thought the PS was really going ahead with an agreement with PCP and the BE, although there were talks about it during the campaign. In Portugal there was always the idea that if you win an election, you will govern, period. The PS's move shattered completely this mentality.

Mr Passos Coelho decided to stay because, in my opinion, he truly believed the PS/PCP/BE government would colapse within a couple of months. And for a while the PSD actually led the PS in opinion polls but then everybody realised that Mr Costa had the PCP and BE in his pocket and nothing too radical or extreme would come out of this government. Unfortunately for Mr. Coelho, he continues pressing that the government is too radical and should change course as opinion polling shows the PSD at levels only seen during the troika years.

Could he still be PM? Probably, but it's becoming more and more unlikely and the PSD "establishment" is becoming worried that the party is going nowhere with him. The local elections are a crucial test for him, even though he downplays it. If he, somehow, achieves a good result, he will, once again, stun everybody but if he loses by 2013 levels, get ready because there will be an ugly fight for the PSD leadership.

[Mike88]

Prime Minister will start meeting with party leaders to schedule the local elections.

The PM António Costa will meet, until the end of the month, with all party leaders to hear what date is better to held the local elections.

No one has any rush in calling the election, because the law says that election can only be called, at minimum, 80 days in advance, except the leader of CDS Assunção Cristas.

Looking at the calender, i believe that October 1st is the most likely date.

[Mike88]

Local politics in Portugal are just like a Mexican soap opera.

The candidate chosen by Passos Coelho to run in Lisbon, Teresa Leal Coelho, is creating a bad mood in the local PSD. Why? Because Mr Passos Coelho announced the decision first to PSD-District of Lisbon and only then to the PSD-Lisbon. All of this after, according to the article, the PSD-Lisbon decided that the decision of who runs in Lisbon is of the complete responsibility of Mr Passos Coelho.

And in Porto district, there's another war between the District parties and the local parties. The main point of disagreement is the candidate of the PSD for Matosinhos. The local party approved Joaquim Jorge as the candidate, an independent who want to run for the PSD, but the District party didn't like the choice.

And now there's a war of words between both sides, the District party says that PSD-Matosinhos didn't have the necessary quorum to approve the candidate while the local party says the problem is that they nominated someone from outside the party and that this pisses off the District party.

[Mike88]

Ok, a little history lession:

In the next few weeks, the candidacies for the 308 municipalties and the 3,092 parishes will be closed by all major parties and the campaign will, unofficially, start. The first polls will start being released and also the first posters (local elections are famous for the most hilarious posters. I will post some of them in the future).

Local elections are often used by voters as a way of punishing or warn governments as all governments since 1976 have performed poorly in midterm local elections.

The 1976 election:

The 1976 local elections were the first ever held in Portugal. Although the PS vote share was almost 10% higher than the PSD (34% to 25%), they both tied in number of municipalties. The PSD won the islands of Madeira and Azores plus achieved good results in the north and center of the country. On the other hand the PS won convincingly in the Lisbon and in Porto areas and also in the Algarve. The CDS achieved also good results in rural areas in Guarda, Bragança and Viseu while the PCP dominated the Alentejo area. The election were held just a few months after Mário Soares was nominated PM.

The 1979 election:

These elections resulted in a landslide victory for the AD (Democratic Alliance) and the parties that compose it, the PSD and CDS. The alliance and the PSD/CDS dominated everything in the north and center of the country plus they won the big urban center around Porto and Lisbon. The PS suffered a colossal defeat losing 55 municipalties, as they were punished for their government performance between 1976 and 1978 (where Portugal asked for an IMF loan). On the other hand the PCP reinforced its dominance of the Alentejo area by increasing the number of cities won from 36 to 50. The election was held weeks after the AD landslide win the 1979 general election where Francisco Sá Carneiro was nominated as PM.

The 1982 election:

The 1982 local election was the first midterm local elections. This election was held under difficult circumstances. The country was still recovering from the shock and tragic dead of Francisco Sá Carneiro in a plane crash in December 1980. After his dead, the PSD nominated Francisco Pinto Balsemão as PM but his lack of leadership affected the economy and by 1982 the country was almost in a recession. Although the PSD won more cities than the PS, the magnitude of the PSD's loss was overwhelming. The PS improved their vote share to 31% and gained more then 20 cities from the PSD. The PCP continued to strengthen their huge dominance in the Alentejo. As a result of these election results, the PM, Francisco Pinto Balsemão, resigned and a snap election was called for April 1983, which was won by the PS.

The 1985 election:

The 1985 local elections were the first under Cavaco Silva leadership. Just 2 months after winning the 1985 general elections, the PSD won a landslide in the local elections improving their 1982 score by more than 60 municipalties. The PS suffered a huge defeat as they were, like in 1985 October general election, punished for the government performance between 1983 and 1985. For the first the PCP dropped in number of municipalties won and the CDS started a long decline in local elections.

The 1989 elections:

First midterm local elections during Cavaco Silva governments. After winning the 1987 general elections by a landslide, Mr Cavaco Silva started a string of reforms in the economy and on the country as a whole. By 1989 many of his policies of privatizations and constitutional reforms were unpopular adding to this labor reforms in the public sector that created backlash particularly in the police force, which culminated in the "Secos e Molhados" (yet and dry) protests where police agents were against each other. As a result, the PSD was punished in the local elections. For the first time the PS won more municipalties than the PSD and made inroads in PSD country in the north and Center. The PS also regain control of the 2 main cities, Lisbon and Porto. In Lisbon, Jorge Sampaio, future President of the Republic (PR), defeated Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, current PR, by a 49% to 42% margin. The PCP made also gains in the south of the country while the CDS continued it's decline in local politics.

I will post the rest of the elections later. Enjoy

[Mike88]

The 1993 elections:

Second midterm local elections of Cavaco Silva's governments. Held in the middle of his 3rd term as PM, the strain of being 8 years in power was starting to show. The election was another victory for the PS which strengthen the position of the new leader of the party, and future PM, António Guterres.

The PS increased their margin from 6 to 11 municipalities compared to the PSD, although the PSD also gained a few municipalities from CDS. The PSD was, again, punished for their performance in government and many things contributed to it: In 1993 the country went to recession for the first time in 10 years, plus many resignations of ministers from the government and weariness by the PSD's long term in office eroded the governments popularity. The PS also increase their share of vote to 40% while the PSD, this time with no coalitions with the CDS, drooped to 33%.

The PCP continued to dominate the Alentejo area and the peninsula of Setúbal while the CDS continued their decline in local election that started in 1985. In this election the CDS only won 13 municipalties, a drop of 7 municipaltoes compared with 1989.

The 1997 election:

First midterm local election of António Guterres governments. In the first electoral test after the PS returned to power, the PS maintained the status of the largest local political force but only just. In what is called "the tie election", the PSD was viewed as the big winner of this local elections after evaporating almost completely the PS lead over them in the 1993 election. Almodôvar, municipality in Alentejo and Lisbon were crucial for the PS. In Almodôvar, where the incumbent PS mayor was being investigated for corruption, the PS held that municipality by only 10 votes and they were also able to hold on to Lisbon, even though by a much smaller margin than in 1993.

The PS minority government was therefore a bit punished and warned by the voters. Controversial dossiers like the regionalization of the country, abortion and fiscal policies in order to put Portugal in the european single currency created some discomfort in the electorate. The PSD, who was against regionalization and abortion, capitalized many of the electorate anxieties. These elections strengthen the position of the PSD leader at that time, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa - current PR - which was somewhat contested inside the party.

The PCP maintained their dominance in the Alentejo despite losing some cities to the PS like Loures and Vila Franca de Xira in the suburbs of Lisbon. The CDS achieved, in these elections, the lowest number of municipalties until that date by winning only 8 municipalities, another drop of 5 in comparison to 1993. The PPM (People's Monarchist Party) surprised many by winning one city in Viseu District.

I will post more later.

[Mike88]

The 2001 elections:

Second midterm local elections during António Guterres governments. These elections were a total car crash for the PS. After being 6 years in power without a majority and with an united opposition, the government almost came to a standstill. 2001 was a year when everything that could go wrong, went wrong. First is was the Hintze Ribeiro bridge disaster in March, which killed 59 people. The government was accused of negligence by families of the victims and by the opposition, prompting the minister of transportation, Jorge Coelho, to resign.

Then there was the slowdown of the economy adding the government's difficulties in passing budgets in Parliament which created situations out of this world. The PS's budgets between 1999 and 2001 were called "the limiano budgets", a famous cheese brand in Portugal. These budgets passed because the mayor of Ponte de Lima (CDS) wanted a cheese factory in his city and the government acceded to the request of the mayor, causing the mayor and MP to vote in favour of the budgets. Of course he was expelled from the CDS, but the budgets passed.

Despite all of this, polls still showed that the PS would hold on to the big cities of the country. But they were fantastically wrong. On election day, the government and the PS were punished for their performance in government and the PSD won by a landslide winning almost 160 municipalties, an increase of 32, while the PS fell to 113. The PS defeat was even worse because they lost all of the big cities: Lisbon, Porto, Coimbra, Sintra, Faro and Famalicão. In all of them polls showed the PS in the lead. Independent movements were allowed to run for the first time and won 3 cities. The PCP also suffered a huge defeat by reducing their influence in Setubal peninsula and in the Alentejo, as they fell to 28 cities in comparison with the 41 in 1997. The CDS went into full decline by winning only 3 cities, although in this election the PSD/CDS ran in coalitions in several cities, particularly the big ones. BE also elected their first mayor in Salvaterra de Magos.

Because of these worse than expected results for the PS, the Prime Minister António Guterres resigned on election night stating that he didn't want the country to fall into a "political swamp". An early election was called for March 2002, which was won by the PSD.

[Mike88]

The 2005 elections:

The 2005 local elections cannot be classified as midterm as they occurred only 8 months after the new PS majority government, led by PM José Sócrates, was sworn in. But the first actions and policies of the PS government were an issue in the campaign and were punished by the electorate.

In February 2005 the PS, led by José Sócrates, won a historic absolute majority. For the first time ever the Socialists could govern alone without any help. The Socialists ran a campaign on lower taxes, job creation and fiscal consolidation. But early on, the PS broke their electoral promise of lowering taxes and, therefore, after an emergency spring budget, taxes went up particularly VAT. The electorate didn't like this and the PS started falling in the polls. Adding to this, the disastrous handling of the summer wildfire crisis eroded even more trust in the government.

Polls were, again, quite wrong in this election. Like in 2001, polls predicted close races in the main cities, especially Lisbon and Porto. That wasn't accurate. On election day the PSD won again by a landslide losing just 1 municipality while the PS got an even worse result than in 2001 as they dropped from 113 to 109 municipalities. In Porto, Rui Rio was reelected with an absolute majority, shocking analysts who predicted a close race after Rio's clash with Pinto da Costa, president of Porto Football Club (FCP).

In Lisbon, the PSD also won by a landslide, although without a majority, while the PS had a poor showing at just 26%. The PSD maintain their dominance in the big cities across the country, although they lost Faro by a very close margin to the PS. PCP made a recovery winning 4 more cities than in 2001 by dominating almost completely the Setúbal peninsula. Independent movements also increase dramatically their scores winning 7 municipalities, an increase of 5. 3 of these independents were former PS and PSD mayors who were being investigated by corruption and who failed to win their party's support and ran as independents, they were: Valentim Loureiro in Gondomar (former PSD); Isaltino Morais in Oeiras (former PSD) and Fátima Felgueiras in Felgueiras (former PS).

The CDS achieved their lowest point ever, winning just 1 city, Ponte de Lima. Like in the 2001, the CDS celebrated many coalition with the PSD and also with MPT and PPM. The Left Bloc (BE) maintained their only municipality, Salvaterra de Magos.

[Mike88]

Fascinating, thanks a lot!

Thanks!! I will post today the rest of the local election analysis.

Why PS didn't have candidate at presidential election last year?

In the beginning the PS was supposed to support Sampaio da Nóvoa. António Costa even appeared with him a couple of times before the general elections but everything changed after he was sworn in as PM. With the prospect of a Marcelo landslide, the PS decided to not throw any official support to any candidate although many PS MP's, ministers and members supported Nóvoa. But many PS voters voted for Marcelo instead, as this graphic shows:

[Mike88]

The 2009 elections:

Second local elections held during José Sócrates government. Like in 2005, these local elections were anything but midterm as they were held just 2 weeks after the PS reelection victory in September 2009. In these elections the PS achieved their best result til that date, winning 132 municipalities, an increase of 23. The PS candidates were definitely influenced by the victory of the PS in the general elections. The PSD maintained their status as the largest local political force in the country, but barrely. The PSD lost many cities, a total of 19, as was unable to retake Lisbon, lost in 2007 in a by-election won by António Costa, current PM.

The PSD maintained the big cities of Porto, Coimbra, Gaia, Sintra and were successful in taking back Faro by a very, very slim margin. The PS managed to hold on to Lisbon, and won it with an absolute majority. The PSD candidate, Pedro Santana Lopes - former mayor of Lisbon and PM - was unable to take back his old job as he lost the race by 44% to 39% margin. In the national popular vote, both parties were quite close and these local elections were one of the most bipolarized ever as the PSD won 39% of the vote and the PS 38%.

The PCP suffered quite an election blow as they achieved their worst results ever, winning 28 cities and a share of vote below 10%, 9.7%. Independents candidacies gained some share of vote but won the same number of municipalities, seven. The CDS won, once again 1 city, Ponte de Lima in the North. The BE maintained their bastion, Salvaterra de Magos.

For many mayors across the country, this would be their last election as the new term limits law would come in full effect in the next local elections in 2013.

The 2013 elections:

Midterm local elections held during Passos Coelho's government. These local elections were held during a very difficult economic situation, as Portugal was still coping with the effects of the European Debt crisis and with the bailout it had to ask in 2011. The government had become very unpopular, particularly after the 2012 September protests against the austerity policies of the PSD/CDS government. By the summer of 2013, the government suffered another crisis after the sudden resignation of the Finance minister Vitor Gaspar. His successor, Maria Luís Albuquerque, was not well received by the CDS and Mr. Paulo Portas resigned from the government creating a huge political crisis. For a while it was uncertain if the country was going to early election in 2014 or not, but ultimately the PSD/CDS came to an agreement and the crisis ended. But this crisis made severe damages in the country's image.

Also in this election, the new term limits regulations came into full effect, barring many incumbent and popular mayors to run for another term. The term limits and the political crisis were going to hit hard on the PSD and voters were ready to punish them. On election day the PS won by a landslide, winning 150 cities, an increase of 18. They were also able to win big cities across the country like Gaia, Sintra, Coimbra, Vila Real and Funchal - the last two, historic bastions of the PSD. But there were setbacks for the PS: they lost two historic bastions, Braga and Guarda to the PSD, plus Loures to CDU.

PSD suffered a huge defeat, their biggest ever in local elections, winning just 106 municipalities, a drop of 33. The electorate clearly punished their performance in government. The losses were most severe in the north and center of the country and particularly in the Madeira islands, the most orange place in Portugal. There the PSD lost 7 municipalities, winning just 4 in a island with 11 municipalities. The defeat in Madeira led the President of the Region, Alberto João Jardim to call for a leadership election in the PSD-Madeira and he also announced he would not seek an 11th term. The PCP made also many gains, increasing their score form 28 to 34 cities and by winning 11% of the vote. The CDS also made a marvelous recovery, ending their decline in local politics. In these elections, the CDS won 5 cities, 4 more than in 2009 and all at the expense of the PSD.

Independent movements made also big gains, increasing their score to 13 cities. The most notable was Rui Moreira, who won the city of Porto by a landslide. Left Bloc suffered a huge defeat as they lost their bastion in Salvaterra de Magos to the PS, and didn't made any gains across the country.

[Mike88]

The analysis of the past local elections is done. Hope you enjoyed it and understand the different trends and events that influenced the local elections in Portugal in the last 40 years. They can give us some hints on what can happen in the fall.

Now, the parties continue to finalize their candidacies for the local elections. The PS is reveling their candidates drop by drop but not very steady while the PSD has already many candidacies approved. And, rumours of the eminent "divorce" between the PSD and CDS may have been a bit exaggerated. The PSD and CDS have already celebrated a record of 99 coalitions, more than the 87 in 2013.

The PSD local elections coordinator, Carlos Carreiras, even said that the final number of PSD/CDS coalitions - some with other smaller parties like PPM and MPT - could reach 140, almost half of all municipalities in the country.